Thursday, September 07, 2006

Job Market Remains Healthy, Inventories Still at Record Lows

- Initial Jobless Claims for last week fell to 310K versus estimates of 315K and 319K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims rose to 2492K versus estimates of 2483K and 2477K prior.
- Wholesale Inventories for July rose .8% versus estimates of a .6% increase and a .8% gain in June.
BOTTOM LINE: The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits for the first time fell to the lowest in more than a month, signaling the labor market remains healthy, Bloomberg reported. The four-week average of jobless claims fell to 315,250 versus 318,250 the prior week. The unemployment rate among those eligible for benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, held steady at 1.9%. Job cut announcements by US businesses fell 24% in August from year-ago levels, according to a recent report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas. I continue to believe the labor market will remain healthy over the intermediate-term without generating substantial unit labor cost increases.

Inventories at US wholesalers increased twice as fast as sales in July, Bloomberg reported. Sales rose .4% versus a 1.2% gain the prior month. The inventory-to-sales ratio remained at an all-time low of 1.15 months. I continue to believe inventory rebuilding will add to economic growth as companies gain confidence in the durability of the current expansion.

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Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Crude oil traded near a five-month low in NY amid above average US supplies and less speculation of a significant production disruption.
- Merck & Co.’s(MRK) special investigation on the 2004 withdrawal of its Vioxx painkiller concluded that company scientists and managers “acted with integrity” in studying the drug’s potential heart risks. Former federal judge John Martin Jr. released a 1,700-page report saying Merck adequately studied red flags before the drug’s launch in May 1999.
- KB Home(KBH) reduced its earnings forecast, saying a decline in new orders will cause profit to fall in fiscal 2006 as higher mortgage rates crimped demand.
- South Korea’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a five-year high, following banks in the US, Europe and Australia in signaling that slowing growth is a greater concern than inflation.
- Florida’s Anibal Sanchez pitched a no-hitter in a 2-0 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks, the first in Major League Baseball in more than two years.

Financial Times:
- European Union regulations are being implemented too rigorously, imposing higher costs on small UK businesses and preventing them from hiring new staff, citing a survey conducted by the UK government’s Foreign Policy Centre.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (CSCO), target $26.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.08%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.17%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (COO)/.74
- (JOSB)/.35
- (KFY)/.29
- (NSM)/.32
- (ZQK)/.04
- (SHFL)/.24
- (UTIW)/.24

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 315K versus 316K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2483K versus 2486K prior.

10:00 am EST
- Wholesale Inventories for July are estimated to rise .6% versus a .8% gain in June.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Near Session Lows on Profit-taking

Indices
S&P 1,300.26 -.99%
DJIA 11,406.20 -.55%
NASDAQ 2,167.84 -1.72%
Russell 2000 712.04 -2.13%
Wilshire 5000 13,000.45 -1.14%
S&P Barra Growth 603.23 -1.04%
S&P Barra Value 695.04 -.94%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 642.96 -.39%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 808.05 -1.03%
Morgan Stanley Technology 501.75 -2.22%
Transports 4,229.93 -1.76%
Utilities 434.73 -.77%
Put/Call 1.26 +29.90%
NYSE Arms 1.22 +46.15%
Volatility(VIX) 13.74 +8.79%
ISE Sentiment 102.00 +47.83%
US Dollar 85.13 +.15%
CRB 325.43 -.50%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 67.72 -1.28%
Unleaded Gasoline 164.90 +.15%
Natural Gas 5.95 -1.32%
Heating Oil 191.25 -1.23%
Gold 640.80 -.16%
Base Metals 236.40 +.57%
Copper 365.00 -.80%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.79% +.29%

Leading Sectors
Foods -.15%
Banks -.18%
REITs -.41%

Lagging Sectors
Energy -3.3%
Alternative Energy -3.5%
Oil Service -3.85%

Evening Review
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Afternoon Recommendations
Oppenheimer:
- Rated (ADPI) Buy, target $20.
- Rated (MSCS) Buy, target $21.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Crude oil fell to the lowest close in five months as speculators continued to cut bets on an impending production disruption.
- Home Depot(HD) said federal prosecutors requested information regarding its stock options practices.
- NY Attorney General Eliot Spitzer has dropped “key charges” against former American International Group(AIG) CEO Greenberg.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today on losses in my Semi longs, Computer longs and Retail longs. I added to my (EEM) short and added (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was very negative today as the advance/decline line finished substantially lower, every sector declined and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Overall, today's market performance was bearish. The 10-year yield is finished near session lows at 4.79% on growth worries and falling commodity prices. I still see little evidence of a substantial slowdown in economic activity even as this continues to be factored into stock prices. Today's losses were mainly the result of profit-taking and buyer's apprehension ahead of what everyone believes will be a weak month for stocks.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Profit-taking

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Computer longs, Retail longs and Semi longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, every sector is falling and volume is about average. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 3.9% year over year last week vs. a 3.3% rise the prior week. The long-term average is a gain of around 2.8%. I still see little evidence that a significant decline in consumer spending is beginning, even as investors continue to price this into stocks. As I have said before, mortgage resets were supposed to send consumer spending plunging this year, and they have not. I still expect the back-to-school selling season to exceed expectations. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on bargain hunting and declining energy prices.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Crude oil in NY is falling again, heading for the lowest close in five months, as concern eased that shipments from Iran, will be curbed because of a dispute about the country’s nuclear program.
- The Fed said companies last month had difficulty passing along higher energy prices to customers as economic growth slowed in some areas, adding to the case for keeping interest rates unchanged.
- GM(GM) will extend warranties to 100,000 miles on 2007 cars and trucks as part of a plan to tout quality and win back buyers lost to Toyota Motor(TM) and other rivals.
- SEC Chairman Cox said regulators will be bringing action against more companies for fraudulent reporting of their stock options grants.
- ASML Holding NV, Europe’s largest maker of semiconductor equipment, raised its forecast for third-quarter machine orders and 2006 sales because of “strong demand” from manufacturers of memory chips.
- Sony Corp.(SNE) delayed the European release of its PlayStation 3 video game console until March and cut its 2006 shipment target in half to 2 million, surrendering holiday sales to Microsoft and Nintendo.
- Fast growing demand has resulted in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(TSM) to extend its shipment time to eight weeks or more.

Wall Street Journal:
- Cisco Systems(CSCO) is beginning a campaign to broaden its image to include consumers and sell services such as Internet phone calling, set-top television boxes, and networked DVD players.
- Eastman Kodak(EK) is to introduce more than 2,000 photo-processing kiosks into Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) as the popularity of instant print, self-service booths grows.
- Amazon.com(AMZN) will offer a movie downloading service, called Amazon Unbox, to match its DVD sales and rental businesses.

NY Times:
- New Boston-area buildings designed as laboratory space for biotechnology research are attracting cash-rich institutional investors.
- A group including Cisco Systems(CSCO), IBM(IBM) and Azulstar Networks will spend between $75 million and $270 million to build a wireless network for Silicon Valley.

Sacramento Bee:
- State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co., California’s largest provider of homeowners’ insurance, will propose cutting its rates there by an average of 10.6% today.

Philadelphia Inquirer:
- A professor emeritus at the Wharton School who was arrested last week in Virginia on child porn allegations now faces charges in Pennsylvania after a search of his campus office turned up illegal photos and videos.

Finanz & Wirtschaft:
- UBS AG CEO Wuffli sees “very good” prospects to expand in wealth management in the US.

Emirates Today:
- Foreign direct investment into the United Arab Emirates will drop by almost half by 2010.

AFP:
- Russia’s foreign minister said the country may support UN sanctions against Iran because of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.