Economic Releases

- None of note

***Alert***

Blogging will be light today due to a scheduling conflict. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Quick Summary
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
Today in IBD
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Intraday Chart/Quote

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Dragon Captial, Vietnam’s biggest fund manager, is betting government share sales will help slow Asia’s second-most-expensive stock market, which has slumped 11% since its March 12 peak. “Increasing supply is a rational and welcome way of cooling the market that would kill two birds with one stone,” said Bill Stoops, head of research at Ho Chi Minh city-based Dragon, which manages $2 billion in Vietnam. Dragon is selling to raise cash that will go back in stocks once valuations fall, he said.
- The US dollar is declining against the euro and yen on speculation tension between the US and China will escalate after Trade Representative Susan Schwab said the government today will file complaints to the WTO.

China Securities Journal:
- China should accelerate change to lift controls on its interest-rate system.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (CTAS).

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to .50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.08%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (AA)/.78
- (BYI)/.04
- (ESIO)/.20
- (TSAI)/.31
- (ESIO)/.20

Upcoming Splits
- (FMCN) 2-for-1
- (GEF) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
- None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mixed as gains in steelmaking stocks are offsetting losses in energy shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Mixed as Oil Prices Fall Most in 3 Months

Indices
S&P 500 1,444.61 +.06%
DJIA 12,569.14 +.07%
NASDAQ 2,469.18 -.09%
Russell 2000 811.64 -.21%
Wilshire 5000 14,593.18 +.06%
Russell 1000 Growth 570.09 +.05%
Russell 1000 Value 834.26 +.12%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 712.71 +.19%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 974.94 +.60%
Morgan Stanley Technology 571.05 -.30%
Transports 5,010.10 +1.89%
Utilities 513.60 +.64%
MSCI Emerging Markets 120.35 +.49%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .76 +1.33%
NYSE Arms .74 -9.01%
Volatility(VIX) 13.14 -.68%
ISE Sentiment 109.0 -13.49%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.71 -4.0%
Reformulated Gasoline 210.0 -1.35%
Natural Gas 7.56 -.57%
Heating Oil 182.50 -1.93%
Gold 675.90 -.52%
Base Metals 265.88 unch.
Copper 350.50 +3.79%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.74% -1 basis point
US Dollar 83.10 +.13%
CRB Index 314.54 -.96%

Leading Sectors
Road&Rail +3.7%
Coal +2.91%
Steel +1.20%

Lagging Sectors
Banks -.36%
Computer Services -.37%
Tobacco -.60%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
CIBC:
- Rated (ESRX) Sector Outperformer.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Crude oil plunged $2.77 a barrel in NY, the biggest decline in three months on speculation US crude oil inventories jumped again last week.
- The Dow Chemical Co.(DOW) board of directors said it has held no discussions about a leveraged buyout of the company and reiterated support for CEO Andrew Liveris’s strategy for the company.
- President Vladimir Putin has already brought Russian newspapers and television to heel. Now he’s turning his attention to the Internet.
- Citigroup(C) is in talks to buy NY hedge-fund manage Old Lane LP in an effort to land Vikram Pandit as head of so-called alternative investments such as private equity and real estate.
- Tribune Co.(TRB) received commitments for $12.2 billion in debt financing to fund billionaire investor Sam Zell’s plan to take the company private, according to a regulatory filing.
- Take-Two Interactive(TTWO) said CFO Karl Winters resigned, less than two weeks after shareholders took control of the video-game maker and ousted its CEO.
- DivX Inc.(DIVX) today announced that, based on preliminary information, it currently expects that revenue and pre-tax earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2007 will be higher than previous guidance. The shares surged 11.2% after-hours.
- Cotton in NY fell the most in three months on speculation US supplies will rise further as exports lag behind last year.
- Starbucks Corp.(SBUX) will build a new roasting plant in South Carolina to better distribute coffee in the US southeast.
- Orange-juice futures in NY fell to the lowest in almost six months on speculation demand is declining.
- Seagate Technology(STX) said preliminary fiscal third-quarter revenue was $2.8 billion, less than its forecasted range of $2.9-$3.0 billion. The stock fell .14 to $23.32 in after hours trading.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished about even today as gains in my Telecom longs and Retail longs offset losses in my Medical longs and Semi longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was mixed today as the advance/decline line finished slightly lower, most sectors gained and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were about average into the close. Today's overall market action was neutral. While buyout speculation and a sharp decline in oil failed to lift stocks meaningfully, a pause after last week's strong gains shouldn't be too concerning for the bulls. Moreover, despite the muted performance in the major averages, a number of stocks rose meaningfully once again. The underlying tone of the broad market remains very constructive. The NYSE cumulative advance/decline line made another all-time high last week. Moody's (MCO) reported today that the global default rate on junk bonds fell to 1.4% in March, the lowest in a decade, according to Bloomberg. Moreover, the firm is forecasting default rates to only rise to 3.5% by 2009 vs. the long-term average of 5.1%. I still expect stocks to rise modestly later this week.

Stocks Mixed into Final Hour as Falling Oil Prices Offset Profit-taking

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is about even into the final hour as gains in my Retail longs and Telecom longs are offsetting losses in my Semi longs and Medical longs. I added to my (LVLT) long and added to an existing energy-related short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is neutral as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, sector performance is mostly positive and volume is below average. Transports are breaking 2.0% higher today after news that Warren Buffett has acquired a large stake in Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI). Besides BNI, Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX), Con-Way (CNW), CSX Corp. (CSX), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Union Pacific (UNP) and YRC Worldwide (YRCW) are powering the Transportation Index higher. While there is no way to know the exact rationale behind Buffett's actions, I seriously doubt he would make such a move if he thought that there was a high probability of an imminent U.S. recession. Over the last hour, oil's decline has accelerated, with the commodity now down $2.71 per barrel, to $61.57 per barrel. Many energy-related stocks that had been up over 1% this morning are now at session lows, falling 0.1%-0.3%. This seems to be pressuring the broad market a bit. The decline in oil is coming despite more optimism over U.S. economic growth, more noise from Iran over its nuclear program, another big jump in crude oil large speculative longs last week, a 4% gain in copper and another huge surge in crack spreads. The underlying tone of trading in oil has completely changed since the end of the Iranian/U.K. hostage tensions, and the commodity is now back below its 200-day moving-average. Any weakness in the broad market related to a decline in oil is likely just temporary. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on short-covering, buyout speculation, falling energy prices and bargain-hunting.