Monday, June 11, 2007

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The Senate unanimously voted to take up energy legislation that would raise US car fuel economy standards and increase the use of alternative fuels in an effort to reduce oil consumption.
- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is losing support with Americans who don’t see Congress producing any real change. A 39% plurality of Americans disapprove of the California Democrat’s performance, according the latest Bloomberg/LA Times national survey; 36% approve. In January, the new speaker scored a 34% to 21% favorable rating.
- Texas Instruments(TXN) said second-quarter sales and profit will miss its highest estimates as demand for handsets and calculators declines. The stock fell $.70/share to $35.10 in after-hours trading.
- An index of energy and raw materials prices paid by companies in Japan rose 2.2% in May from a year earlier after climbing 2.3% in April, the Bank of Japan said.
- The yuan had the biggest gain in a month before the US Treasury Dept. is scheduled to name currency manipulators in a semiannual foreign-exchange report.
- The US dollar may strengthen for a fifth day against the euro as reports this week will probably show US economic growth is recovering, making an interest-rate cut this year less likely.
- Inflation in China accelerated in May, increasing the likelihood that interest rates will be raised. Consumer prices gained 3.4% from a year earlier versus a 3.0% rise in April and estimates of a 3.3% gain.

Wall Street Journal:
- Dow Jones’(DJ) controlling Bancroft family is expected to send News Corp.(NWS/A) a new list of proposals for creating a board that would ensure editorial independence at the Wall Street Journal.

DigiTimes:
- United Microelectronics and Texas Instruments(TXN) are jointly developing 45-nanometer and 32-nanometer chipmaking technology, citing Jackson Hu, the Taiwan company’s chairman.

Financial Times:
- The growth of cities in China has “devastated” the country’s historical buildings and cultural heritage, citing Qiu Baoxing, vice-minister for construction.

Daily Telegraph:
- Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Bank of America Corp.(BAC) are understood to be approaching agreement over how to split ABN Amro Holding NV’s US division, LaSalle.

China Daily:
- About 60% of cities in China have polluted air and lack centralized sewage systems.

South China Morning Post:
- China suspended approvals of overseas listings by private companies because it wants them to sell shares to domestic investors.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (SNDK), target $52.

Morgan Stanley:
- Reiterated Overweight on (AAPL), target $150.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.12%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.12%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (FNSR)/.02
- (LEH)/1.87
- (SAPE)/.03
- (STEI)/.12
- (ROLL)/.41

Upcoming Splits
- (CROX) 2-for-1
- (WMS) 3-for-2
- (ADVNA) 3-for-2
- (BNHN) 3-for-2
- (BWLD) 2-for-1
- (MIDD) 2-for-1
- (PEBK) 3-for-2

Economic Releases
2:00 pm EST
- The Monthly Budget Statement for May is estimated to widen to -$70.0 billion versus -$42.9 billion in April.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Moskow speaking, Fed’s Lockhart speaking, former Fed head Greenspan speaking, weekly retail sales reports, JPMorgan Basics/Industrials Conference, Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare Conference and Bear Stearns Tech/Communications/Internet Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Mixed as Rise in Rates, Oil Offsets Short-covering, Bargain-hunting

Market Performance Summary
Market Gauges
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Bargain-hunting, Short-covering

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my I-Banking longs, Medical longs and Software longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is neutral as the advance/decline line is mixed, sector performance is mixed and volume is about average. The 10-year yield is down 2 basis points from today's highs. This is helping to boost the major averages near session highs. As I said last week, I suspect that we have seen the highs for the year in the 10-year yield at 5.24% last Thursday morning. The most recent COT report showed large speculators cut their net long position in the 10-year significantly last week. Moreover, I expect this week's economic data to help bring rates back down. I still think there is a good chance that the 10-year yield can touch 5% again by week's end. Finally, I wouldn't be surprised to see another bout of commodity weakness in anticipation of another interest rate hike in China, which will further reduce diminishing inflation worries. I increased my core iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) long meaningfully into last week's weakness. I expect falling rates and better-than-expected earnings reports to propel stocks to new record highs over the coming weeks. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as bargain hunting and short-covering offsets higher energy prices and profit-taking.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- The FAA, which plans to replace the existing air-traffic-control system, will receive three bids this month for the first stage of a new system.
- Senator Clinton’s opposition to an agreement to tighten US economic ties to South Korea underscores the Democratic party’s growing unease over the benefits of free trade.
- Bank of America(BAC) and Citigroup(C) are preparing new black credit cards with American Express’s(AXP) logo to try to get affluent customers to make more purchases.
- Henry McVey resigned as chief US investment strategies at Morgan Stanley(MS) after 12 years with the second-largest securities firm to join an investment company.
- Corn prices are set for a “disaster” and may fall as much as a fifth in the next year because investors over-estimated the risk to US plantings posed by adverse weather conditions, Morgan Stanley said.
- Nucor Corp.(NUE), the second-largest US-based steel company, said second-quarter profit will fall more than analysts estimated as demand from automakers and homebuilders slowed.
- Antitrust officials may demand that Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) change its Windows Vista operating system to address a complaint that the program’s design hurts competing software, said Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal.
- The New York Stocks Exchange, seeking to bolster trading after losing business to all-electronic rivals, relaxed long-standing rules that limited floor brokers to handling only Big Board listed shares.
- Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund, is sticking with his forecast for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in a “schizophrenic” market.
- Google Inc.(GOOG) will work with Sina Corp.(SINA) to gain share in the world’s second-largest online market.
- Apple’s(AAPL) Steve Jobs, who built two of the world’s top consumer brands with the Macintosh and iPod, may let developers write programs for the iPhone to broaden the appeal of the company’s first mobile phone.

Wall Street Journal:
- General Electric(GE) and Microsoft(MSFT) discussed buying Dow Jones(DJ) to merge it with parts of GE’s NBC Universal unit, though they failed to reach an agreement.
- Institutional Shareholder Services is asking shareholders of Yahoo! Inc.(YHOO) to withhold votes from three directors on the Internet company’s compensation committee because they’re paying managers too much money.
- The World Bank plans to start a $250 million pilot project to help Indonesia, Brazil, Congo and other countries prevent deforestation.

CNBC:
- Billionaire investor Edward Lampert has hired Goldman Sachs Group(GS) to raise as much as $5 billion for his ESL Investments hedge fund.

NY Times:
- More than 40 American states have budget surpluses and are looking to use the cash to fund tax cuts or new public projects. Governors in 23 states have proposed tax cuts and many others are putting money toward roads, schools or into savings funds. The surpluses are the result of higher tax collections than expected, with corporate tax revenue having increased 11% more than estimated.
- Medivation Inc.(MDVN) is expected to release results of a mid-stage clinical trial saying its Dimebon drug shows promise in the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease.
- Microsoft Corp,(MSFT) and other Internet companies are working to develop better software to keep automated spammers from infiltrating their Web sites.

Washington Post:
- Lessons from the Vietnam War should be applied to the conflict in Iraq where “rapid unilateral withdrawal would be disastrous” and “a political solution remains imperative,” former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger wrote.

NY Post:
-
Sony Corp.(SNE) has filed for a patent to add a cellphone to the next generation of the company’s PSP game system.

USA Today:
- Tens of thousands of US motorists are now able to report fellow drivers’ bad and dangerous habits to police tip lines.

Financial Times:
- The US Senate will introduce a bill this week intended to increase pressure on China to float its currency.

CityAM:
- Alchemy Partners LLP is preparing a $6 billion bid for Ford Motor’s(F) luxury car brands Land Rover and Jaguar, citing Jon Moulton, managing partner of the private equity firm.

London-based Times:
- Boeing Co.(BA) forecasts it will sell more than 162 versions of its 787 Dreamliner in the next year in addition to the 568 orders for the plane it already has.

Market News International:
- European Central Bank council member Nout Wellink said the bank hasn’t finished raising interest rates.