Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Monday, July 21, 2008
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Sunday, July 20, 2008
Monday Watch
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Never Have So Many Short Sellers Made So Much Money With Stocks. Investors worldwide are betting more than $1 trillion on a collapse in stock prices. More than $1.4 trillion of equities worldwide are now on loan, about a third higher than at the start of 2007, data compiled by Spitalfields Advisors, the London-based firm specializing in securities lending, show. Almost all of that is being used to speculate that shares will fall, according to James Angel, a finance professor at Georgetown University who studies short selling. Short selling on the New York Stock Exchange rose to 4.6 percent of total shares last month, the highest since at least 1931, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group LLC.
- Commodities capped their longest slide since November, dropping as much as 10 percent from a record two weeks ago, on concern that slowing global growth will erode demand for energy, grains and metals. ``All of these commodities are starting to show signs that the big bull market is over, and the things that people have really made the most money with in the past seven years will start to substantially drop,'' said Michael Aronstein, president of Marketfield Asset Management in New York. Traders also sold commodities on speculation investments in equities would garner greater returns, said Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist in Chicago for Lind-Waldock, a division of MF Global Ltd. ``We're seeing rotation into stocks,'' Klopfenstein said. ``We're going through a rebalancing of portfolios.'' ``You get to price levels like we've seen and it really changes people's behavior, and it starts creating demand destruction,'' Aronstein of Marketfield said. ``In two years, all these prices will be substantially lower than they are now.''
- Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover Inc., says oil may drop below $100 a barrel. (video)
- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the latest round of international talks was a ``step forward'' in resolving the conflict concerning his country's nuclear program.
- Corn had its biggest weekly drop in 12 years, plunging 11%. Futures are now down 19 percent from a record in June. ``There's a lot of fund liquidation going on here.''
- Copper declined, heading for a second straight weekly drop, as supplies rose in China, the world's largest consumer of the metal. Stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained 13 percent this week to 42,935 metric tons. That's the highest level since May 29. Chinese production in the six months through June rose 19 percent from a year earlier, the country's statistics bureau said today. ``Copper is caught between slowing worldwide demand and increased Chinese supplies,'' said Donald Selkin, the chief market strategist at National Securities Corp. in New York. ``It's hard to justify higher prices right now.''
- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez heads to Moscow today to shop for tanks, air defense systems and other weaponry as Latin America's arms race quickens amid signs that his regional influence is waning.
- Time Warner Inc.'s(TWX) ``The Dark Knight,'' the sequel to 2005's ``Batman Begins,'' made a record $155.3 million in its opening weekend for Warner Bros., while setting at least five other box-office records.
- President George W. Bush intensified pressure on Congressional Democrats to end an offshore drilling moratorium, saying lawmakers have closed off ``vast'' oil reserves that could be tapped to lower record gasoline prices. ``The sooner Congress lifts the ban, the sooner we can get these resources from the ocean floor to the gas pump,'' Bush said today in his weekly radio address. ``Democratic leaders need to show that they have finally heard the frustrations of the American people.''
- U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said he would not set ``an artificial timetable'' for withdrawing British troops from Iraq, though progress toward a reduction is being made.
- The Australian dollar could be ``on the cusp of a free fall,'' after reaching a 25-year high and near-parity against its U.S. counterpart last week, TD Securities Ltd. said in a report.
Wall Street Journal:
- The SEC’s ban of “naked” short-selling in 19 financial companies has been criticized by firms that weren’t included. The American Bankers Association, which represents 8,500 banks, asked the US market regulator to extend the emergency rule to all companies in the industry or risk making them a target for market manipulators, citing a le4tter from the organization. The Financial Services Roundtable, a group of 100 financial companies, and lender Washington Mutual(WM) have also requested an extension. National City(NCC) plans to do so.
- Ford Motor(F) may overhaul some US factories to make one of its European small-car models as Americans turn to more fuel-efficient vehicles amid record gas prices. Ford has looked at the Mondeo midsize sedan and the European version of its Focus small car among models it’s considering building in US plants. The automaker may seek to take as little as 18 months to begin producing the European car for US consumers.
- The wild gyrations in markets in recent weeks and months are shaking up some of the trading relationships between different types of financial assets, from stocks to currencies to commodities.
- The U.S. isn't the only country seeking to rein in short-selling during volatile times. Australia, too, is trying to impose tighter regulations on the practice, which has been blamed for exacerbating a selloff on the country's stock market. Lawmakers in Australia are proposing rules that would require short sellers to disclose more about their positions in order to prevent market manipulation. The legislation is part of an effort to overhaul the country's financial regulation and comes amid a severe downturn in Australian shares that has pushed the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index down 24% this year.
NY Times:
- Exxon Mobil Corp. CEO Tillerson said the US needs an energy policy that will last as long as 20 years instead of following the two-year election cycle. Tillerson called it “nonsensical” to suggest that the US shouldn’t start drilling for oil because it won’t offer an immediate solution to rising prices.
- Americans are increasingly shopping online to avoid rising gas prices, and many stores are offering free shipping to bolster this source of revenue. Among the stores offering “deals” on shipping this week are Neiman Marcus, Nordstrom, Bloomingdale’s, Macy’s, Aeropostale, American Eagle Outfitters and Target. Retailers such as Gap Inc., Victoria’s Secret and JC Penney have seen double-digit sales gains at their online stores. Internet sales may exceed $200 billion in 2008, up from $175 billion last year, citing Forrester Research.
- Behind The Wheel of the BMW Hydrogen 7.
- Western Ads Cheerlead for China. It is becoming increasingly clear which nation global corporations will be rooting for at this summer’s Olympics: China. McDonald’s is running a “Cheer for China” television ad. Nike ads feature China’s star hurdler, Liu Xiang, and other Chinese athletes besting foreign competitors. Earlier this year, Pepsi even painted its familiar blue cans red for a limited edition “Go Red for China” promotion.
- Dr. Arnold Kim’s Web site, MacRumors.com, has become such a popular technology site, he has stopped practicing medicine to blog full time.
- Erin Burnett’s meteoric rise is the most recent example of how television networks try to transform fresh-faced hosts into household names.
- Senator Hillary Clinton of NY and Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick are among those Democratic activists have suggested Barack Obama name to any opening on the Supreme Court if he’s elected president. Harvard law professor Lani Guinier said
- Websites give view of neighborhood safety.
Reuters:
- Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki isn’t personally endorsing Senator Barack Obama’s timetable for US troop withdrawal, citing an Iraqi government spokesman. Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine misunderstood al-Maliki when it reported that al-Malkiki favored Obama’s plan, Iraqi spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said. Al-Maliki envisions a US pullout based on talks with Washington and the security situation in Iraq, citing al-Dabbagh.
- An $11 billion joint plastics venture between Dow Chemical Co (DOW) and a unit of Kuwait Petroleum Corp will be based in Michigan, the two companies said in a statement on Sunday.
- The British economy is heading into recession and interest rates should fall to "well below" their current 5 percent, Bank of England policy-maker David Blanchflower was quoted as saying in a newspaper interview.
Financial Times:
- Elan Corp.(ELN) has hired Lehman Brothers(LEH) and Goldman Sachs(GS) for a possible sale of the Irish company’s drug technology division that could fetch as much as $1.5 billion.
- Investor fears for the credit risk of eurozone countries with weaker economies has increased sharply this month. Prices of credit default swaps - a kind of insurance against bond defaults and the best gauge of risk in the debt markets - for Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland have all jumped.
- Citigroup(C) has come under pressure from activist union shareholders who want the financial conglomerate to break itself up.
TimesOnline:
-
- A slowdown in the flow of containers through the giant ports of southern China is providing an amber warning light that all is not well in the vast workshops of China's eastern seaboard. Container traffic growth in Shenzhen and Shanghai, China's biggest ports, slowed in June as weakening demand took its toll on trans-Pacific trade. Traffic at Shenzhen, the world's fourth-largest port, fell in June by 0.6 per cent from the previous month and grew only 3.5 per cent against the same month last year. Throughput in the first half of the year was up 7 per cent, half the rate of growth last year.
Focus:
- Apple Inc.(AAPL) underestimated demand in
21st Century Business Herald:
- Two Chinese copper producers that make the metal from scrap reduced their output by 2,500 metric tons last month, citing a survey by researcher CBI (
Straits Times:
- Government of Singapore Investment Corp. expects the current slowdown in the global economy to last longer than the 2000 slump, citing the sovereign wealth fund’s Chief Investment Officer Ng Kok Song. Ng said financial companies in the
Commercial Times:
-
Gulf News:
- Unemployment in the Arab world is about 25% this year, citing the Arab Labour Organization. The increasing number of unemployed in Arab countries is a “very serious problem,” citing Amr Mousa, Secretary-General of the Arab League.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (ISRG), (GOOG), (MDT), (FSLR), (CSIQ), (SOLF), (LEH), (PRU), (TRN), (ACN), (TROW) and (FLIR).
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (IMCL), target raised to $56.
- Reiterated Buy on (SLB), boosted estimates, raised target to $123.
Night Trading
Asian indices are +.25% to +2.0% on avg.
S&P 500 futures -.14%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.12%.
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- Leading Indicators for June are estimated to fall .1% versus a .1% gain in May.
Other Potential Market Movers
- None of note
Weekly Outlook
Click here for Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Click here for stocks in focus for Monday by MarketWatch.
There are a few economic reports of note and many significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. – Leading Indicators
Tues. – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Home Price Index, weekly retail sales
Wed. – Fed’s Beige Book, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, weekly EIA energy inventory report
Thur. – Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales
Fri. – Durable Goods Orders,
Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. – Hasbro Inc.(HAS), Bank of
Tues. – Baker Hughes(BHI), Quest Diagnostics(DGX), Freeport-McCoRan(FCX), Forest Labs(FRX), SunTrust Banks(STI), CME Group(CME), UnitedHealth Group(UNH), Biogen Idec(BIIB), Wachovia(WB), Caterpillar(CAT), Keycorp(KEY), United Parcel Service(UPS), Washington Mutual(WM), Cerner Corp.(CERN), VMware(VMW), Broadcom(BRCM), Norfolk Southern(NSC), Illumina(ILMN), Boston Properties(BXP), Panera Bread(PNRA), Intuitive Surgical(ISRG), BJ Services(BJS), Domino’s Pizza(DPZ), Lockheed Martin(LMT), Halliburton(HAL), Royal Caribbean(RCL), XTO Energy(XTO), Stanley Works(SWK), Omnicom Group(OMC), UAL Corp.(UAUA), Linear Technology(LLTC), Yahoo!(YHOO), Lexmark Intl.(LXK)
Wed. – Travelers(TRV), PepsiCo Inc.(PEP), McDonald’s(MCD), Whirlpool Corp.(WHR), WellPoint(WLP), Wyeth(WYE), Phillip Morris(PM), PF Chang’s(PFCB), Boeing(BA), AT&T(T), ConocoPhillips(COP), McKesson Corp.(MCK), Qualcomm Inc.(QCOM), Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG), F5 Networks(FFIV), Robert Half(RHI), Allstate(ALL), Aflac(AFL), Ryland Group(RYL), Terex Corp.(TEX), Pulte Homes(PHM), General Motors(GM), EMC Corp.(EMC), Hershey(HSY), Genzyme(GENZ), Amazon.com(AMZN), MEMC Electronic Matericals(WFR), Varian Medical(VAR), General Dynamics(GD), Peabody Energy(BTU), Pfizer Inc.(PFE), Sybase(SY), Anheuser-Busch(BUD)
Thur. – Eli Lilly(LLY), L-3 Communications(LLL), Invitrogen(IVGN), Strayer Education(STRA), AmerisourceBergen(ABC), Starwood Hotels(HOT), Medco Health(MHS), 3M Co.(MMM), Dow Chemical(DOW), Raytheon(RTN), Zimmer Holdings(ZMH), Ford Motor(F), Burlington Norther(BNI), Cheesecake Factory(CAKE), Microchip Tech(MCHP), Chubb Corp.(CB), Cymer Inc.(CYMI), YRC Worldwide(YRCW), BMC Software(BMC), Western Digital(WDC), Juniper Networks(JNPR), Kimberly-Clark(KMB), Becton Dickinson(BDX), Newmont Mining(NEM), Celgene Corp.(CELG), Diamond Offshore(DO), ImClone Systems(IMCL), Southwest Airlines(LUV), Bristol-Myers(BMY), Wynn Resorts(WYNN)
Fri. – Federal Signal(FSS), Barnes Group(B), Fortune Brands(FO), ITT Corp.(ITT), Blockbuster Inc.(BBI), Black & Decker(BDK), Kenneth Cole(KCP), XM Satellite(XMSR)
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. – None of note
Tue. – The Fed’s Plosser speaking
Wed. – The Fed’s Mishkin speaking, Fed’s Kohn speaking
Thur. – (RPRX) analyst day, (MSFT) analyst meeting
Fri. – None of note
Friday, July 18, 2008
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
S&P 500 1,260.68 +1.71%
DJIA 11,496.57 +3.57%
NASDAQ 2,282.78 +1.95%
Russell 2000 693.08 +2.69%
Wilshire 5000 12,790.72 +1.63%
Russell 1000 Growth 540.77 +.69%
Russell 1000 Value 668.59 +2.61%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 664.89 +1.91%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 846.01 +4.10%
Morgan Stanley Technology 554.18 +2.64%
Transports 5,004.02 +4.76%
Utilities 493.40 -4.72%
MSCI Emerging Markets 129.33 -.46%
Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 41,375 +.51%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -400 +72.55%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 32.0 -49.2%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 210,013 +.12%
Total Put/Call .92 -16.36%
OEX Put/Call 1.56 +43.12%
ISE Sentiment 90.0 +7.14%
NYSE Arms .84 -27.59%
Volatility(VIX) 24.05 -12.51%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.06 +3.50%
Smart Money Flow Index 8,091.19 +3.55%
AAII % Bulls 25.0 +12.76%
AAII % Bears 58.14 +5.38%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 128.88 -10.75%
Reformulated Gasoline 317.09 -10.68%
Natural Gas 10.57 -10.57%
Heating Oil 369.15 -9.15%
Gold 958.0 -.41%
Base Metals 240.40 -4.75%
Copper 366.90 -1.90%
Agriculture 421.05 -7.37%
Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.08% +13 basis points
10-year TIPS Spread 2.44% -3 basis points
TED Spread 1.34 +13 basis points
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 137.17 -1.89%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 247.62 -6.67%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +30.90 +13.19%
Fed Fund Futures 7.2% chance of 25 hike, 92.8% chance of no move on 8/5
Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 74.75 +.21%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 376,500 -1.2%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.26% -11 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 522,200 +1.71%
Weekly Retail Sales +2.7%
Nationwide Gas $4.11/gallon +.01/gallon
US Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 10.0% above normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 131.20 -.83%
US Dollar Index 72.19 +.13%
Baltic Dry Index 9,012 -2.36%
CRB Index 427.17 -7.43%
Best Performing Style
Small-cap Value +3.60%
Worst Performing Style
Large-cap Growth +.69%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +27.32%
Banks +14.83%
I-Banks +14.39%
Homebuilders +10.26%
Retail +7.71%
Lagging Sectors
Gold -2.23
Utilities -4.72%
Energy -6.10%
Steel -6.87%
Coal -17.99%
Stocks Finish Mixed as Gains in Oil Services, Energy, Computer Services Offset Losses in Internet, Software and Coal Shares
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