Style Outperformer:
Large-cap Growth (-.08%)
Sector Outperformers:
HMOs (+2.29%), Education (+2.02%) and Software (+1.70%)
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
HUM, MSTR, ITMN, ESI, APOL, HNT, FORM, INTC, ME, TDS, PHG, PCZ, JJSF, SXCI, BEAV, SBNY, RYAAY, AMZN, AKAM, STBA, ATHR, SGMS, NFLX, TTEK, CTXS, ESRX, LANC, MDCO, HAE and CMP
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) CHRW 2) CIEN 3) BDK 4) JNPR 5) MU
Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Monday, February 02, 2009
Bull Radar
Links of Interest
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories
IBD Breaking News
Movers & Shakers
Upgrades/Downgrades
In Play
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
Chart Toppers
Real-Time Intraday Quote/Chart
HFR Global Hedge Fund Indices
Sunday, February 01, 2009
Monday Watch
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
-
Wall Street Journal:
-
NY Times:
- California Utility Rates Customers on Energy Usage.
Politico:
Forbes.com:
- America’s 25 Fastest-Growing Tech Companies.
Reuters:
Financial Times:
Telegraph:
Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung:
-
MailOnline:
Globe and Mail:
Xinhua:
- PT Jakarta International Container Terminal, 51% owned by Hutchinson Port Holdings Ltd., expects the number of containers it handles this year to drop 30% on slowing trade. JICT operates
-
Haaretz.com:
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (HIG), (SPG), (VZ) and (BXP).
Night Trading
Asian indices are -1.50% to +.25% on avg.
S&P 500 futures +.19%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (PJC)/-.81
- (CPO)/.63
- (SYY)/.38
- (HUM)/1.06
- (MAT)/.71
- (ATHR)/.15
- (APC)/.22
- (SNDK)/-.61
- (PCL)/.48
- (AFL)/1.00
- (BEAV)/.46
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Personal Income for December is estimated to fall .4% versus a .2% decline in November.
- Personal Spending for December is estimated to fall .9% versus a .6% decline in November.
- The PCE Core for December is estimated unch. versus unch. in November.
10:00 am EST
- ISM Manufacturing for January is estimated to fall to 32.5 versus 32.9 in December.
- ISM Prices Paid for January is estimated at 18.0 versus 18.0 in December.
- Construction Spending for December is estimated to fall 1.2% versus a .6% decline in November.
Other Potential Market Movers
- The JPMorgan Global High Yield/Leveraged Finance Conference, CSFB Energy Summit, (SRDX) shareholders meeting and (LQDT) shareholders meeting
could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.
Weekly Outlook
Click here for Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Click here for stocks in focus for Monday by MarketWatch.
There are several economic reports of note and a number of significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. – Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Core, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, Construction Spending
Tues. – Weekly retail sales reports, Pending Home Sales, Total Vehicle Sales
Wed. – Weekly MBA mortgage applications report, weekly EIA energy inventory report, Challenger Job Cuts, ADP Employment, ISM Non-Manufacturing
Thur. – ICSC Chain Store Sales, Non-farm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders
Fri. – Change in Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Consumer Credit
Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. – Piper Jaffray(PJC), Sysco Corp(SYY), Humana(HUM), Mattel(MAT), Anadarko Petroleum(APC), SanDisk(SNDK), Plum Creek Timber(PCL), Aflac Inc.(AFL)
Tues. – IAC Interactive Corp.(IACI), Emerson Electric(EMR), DR Horton(DHI), Automatic Data(ADP), Corinthian Colleges, CME Group(CME), Manpower Inc.(MAN), Schering-Plough(SGP), Archer-Daniels-Midland(ADM), Northrop Grumman(NOC), Dow Chemical(DOW), Motorola(MOT), United Parcel Service(UPS), Walt Disney(DIS), Centex(CTX), MetLife(MET), Electronic Arts(ERTS), Jones Lang LaSalle(JLL), Massey Energy(MEE), Yum! Brands(YUM), Illumina(ILMN), Marathon Oil(MRO), Avon Products(AVP), Cummins(CMI), Merck(MRK),
Wed. – Wolverine World Wide(WWW), Diebold(DBD), Ryder System(R), Polo Ralph Lauren(RL), ITT Corp.(ITT), Kraft Foods(KFT), PPL Corp.(PPL), Time Warner(TWX), Cisco Systems(CSCO), Visa Inc.(V), Prudential Financial(PRU), BMC Software(BMC), Pulte Homes(PHM), THQ Inc.(THQI), AvalonBay(AVB), Dolby Labs(DLB), Novellus(NVLS), Akamai Technologies(AKAM), Devon Energy(DVN), Sunoco(SUN), Allergan(AGN), Sara Lee(SLE), Crown Castle(CCI), Clorox(CLX)
Thur. – Bunge(BG), Cardinal Health(CAH), Estee Lauder(EL), Timberland(TBL), Warner Music Group(WMG), Burger King(BKC), Cigna Corp.(CI), Duke Energy(DUK), Kellogg(K), News Corp.(NWS/A), Mastercard(MA), Diamond Offshore(DO), Bebe Stores(BEBE), Louisiana-Pacific(LPX), Pitney Bowes(PBI)
Fri. – Biogen Idec(BIIB), Weyerhaeuser(WY)
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. – JPMorgan Global High Yield/Leveraged Finance Conference, CSFB Energy Summit, (SRDX) shareholders meeting, (LQDT) shareholders meeting
Tue. – JPMorgan Global High Yield/Leveraged Finance Conference, CSFB Energy Summit, (OSK) shareholders meeting, (BDX) shareholders meeting, (EMR) shareholders meeting
Wed. – Cowen Aerospace/Defense Conference, JPMorgan Global High Yield/Leveraged Finance Conference, CSFB Financial Services Forum, CSFB Energy Summit, (CX) Day, (UMH) investor forum, (AXP) financial community meeting
Thur. – Cowen and Company Aerospace/Defense Conference, CSFB Energy Summit, , CSFB Financial Services Conference, The Fed’s Plosser speaking, Fed’s Bullard speaking, Fed’s Stern speaking, (KMT) financial community meeting, (COV) at Dow Jones Global Ethics Summit, (TEG) World Money Show, (STT) analyst meeting
Fri. – The Fed’s Yellen speaking, (EMR) analyst meeting, CSFB Financial Services Conference, CSFB Energy Summit
Friday, January 30, 2009
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
S&P 500 825.88 -.73%
DJIA 8,000.86 -.95%
NASDAQ 1,476.42 -.06%
Russell 2000 444.53 -.19%
Wilshire 5000 8,305.12 -.62%
Russell 1000 Growth 353.11 -.53%
Russell 1000 Value 430.08 -.97%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 514.99 -1.21%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 411.91 -3.20%
Morgan Stanley Technology 334.68 -.49%
Transports 2,965.69 unch.
Utilities 369.70 +.96%
MSCI Emerging Markets 22.76 +3.21%
Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 19,831 +3.99%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -410 +25.18%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 38.0 -11.63%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 226,101 +.30%
Total Put/Call 1.02 +34.21%
OEX Put/Call .53 -49.04%
ISE Sentiment 100.0 -41.86%
NYSE Arms 2.21 +262.29%
Volatility(VIX) 44.84 -5.14%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 19.90 -4.41%
Smart Money Flow Index 7,508.50 +1.43%
AAII % Bulls 25.27 -7.13%
AAII % Bears 47.25 +2.01%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 41.68 -9.35%
Reformulated Gasoline 126.87 +8.44%
Natural Gas 4.42 -1.43%
Heating Oil 143.40 +.48%
Gold 927.30 +3.18%
Base Metals 104.42 +1.15%
Copper 146.85 -.17%
Agriculture 299.15 -2.14%
Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 2.84% +22 basis points
10-year TIPS Spread 1.10% +38 basis points
TED Spread .96 -11 basis points
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 197.12 -7.54%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 742.48 -1.53%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index -39.20 +48.62%
Fed Fund Futures imply 82.0% chance of no change, 18.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 3/17
Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 45.75 +12.21%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 542,500 +4.7%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.10% -2 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 732,100 -38.75%
Weekly Retail Sales -2.20%
Nationwide Gas $1.85/gallon unch.
US Heating Demand Next 7 Days 2.0% below normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 107.30 -.19%
US Dollar Index 86.0 +.46%
Baltic Dry Index 1,070 +9.18%
CRB Index 220.37 -2.40%
Best Performing Style
Small-cap Growth +.93%
Worst Performing Style
Mid-cap Value -2.16%
Leading Sectors
Road & Rail +5.13%
Medical Equipment +4.72%
HMOs +4.60%
Biotech +3.42%
Alternative Energy +3.20%
Lagging Sectors
REITs -4.13%
Construction -4.26%
Education -4.29%
Networking -5.60%
Airlines -13.05%
