Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Sovereign Bond Default Risk Tumbles in Europe on Ireland Bailout Wagers. The cost of insuring against losses on European government bonds fell on speculation pressure from euro-region central bankers will force Ireland to accept an international bailout that would calm markets. Credit-default swaps on Irish government debt fell for a third day, dropping 58.5 basis points to 488, the lowest level since Oct. 29, according to data provider CMA. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of swaps on 15 governments declined 8.5 basis points to 160.Pressure is mounting on Ireland to follow Greece in turning to the European Union’s rescue fund as the region’s deficit crisis worsens. European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio said today that Ireland would be able to tap the fund to save its banks, while fellow central bank council member Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez said the nation should make a “final decision” on an aid plan. Swaps on Ireland reached a record high closing price of 599 basis points last week on concern the ballooning cost of rescuing its banking system is becoming unsustainable. Contagion from Ireland also helped push the cost of insuring Portuguese and Spanish debt to records on Nov. 11. Portugal declined 35 basis points to 401 today and Spain was 15 lower at 246. Italy fell 8.5 to 180, CMA prices show. Swaps on Greece declined 7 basis points to 857, reversing an earlier increase after European Union authorities revised the nation’s budget deficit to 15.4 percent of gross domestic product from 13.6 percent, making it the euro region’s largest shortfall. Contracts on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings declined 3 basis points to 457, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings decreased 1.75 basis points to 101.5. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index linked to the senior debt of 25 banks and insurers dropped 4.5 to 134 and the subordinated index was 9.5 lower at 210.5.
• U.S. Economy: Sales at Retailers Climb by Most in Seven Months. Sales at U.S. retailers climbed in October by the most in seven months, brightening the outlook for holiday shopping even as unemployment holds near 10 percent. Purchases rose 1.2 percent, exceeding the highest forecast among economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, according to data from the Commerce Department issued today in Washington.
• California's $25 Billion Budget Gap Looms Over Revenue Notes: Muni Credit. California is selling $10 billion of one-year notes to boost cash on hand, as the state that produces 13 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product tries to assure investors it can repay the loan amid a $25 billion budget gap.
• Greek Deficit Tops EU Ranking, Putting Pressure on Papandreou. Greece’s budget deficit was revised to the highest in the euro region, putting pressure on Prime Minister George Papandreou to adopt more austerity measures to meet pledges included in the bailout package that allowed the country to avoid default. Greece’s shortfall last year was revised to 15.4 percent of gross domestic product from 13.6 percent, surpassing Ireland at 14.4 percent, Eurostat, the EU’s Luxembourg-based statistics office said today. The shortfall this year will be 9.4 percent of GDP, more than the 8.1 percent the government announced in May, the Greek Finance Ministry said today in a separate statement.
• Manufacturing Growth in New York Region Contracts in November. Manufacturing in the New York region unexpectedly contracted in November for the first time in more than a year, a warning sign the industry that led the economy out of the recession may again be cooling. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index fell to minus 11.1 from 15.7 in October. Readings less than zero signal contractions in the so-called Empire State Index, which covers New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut. Economists forecast the measure would fall to 14 this month, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg News survey.
• Caterpillar(CAT) Buys Bucyrus(BUCY) for $7.6 Billion to Growing Mining Range. Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest maker of construction equipment, agreed to buy Bucyrus International Inc. for $7.6 billion to add shovels and drills to its range of mining machinery. Bucyrus shareholders will receive $92 a share, 32 percent more than the Nov. 12 closing share price, Peoria, Illinois- based Caterpillar said today in a statement.
• Mortgage-Bond Yields That Guide Home Loans in U.S. Soar to Four-Month High. Yields on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage securities that guide home-loan rates reached their highest levels in four months, suggesting borrowing costs may rise from record lows. Fannie Mae’s current-coupon 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds climbed to 3.71 percent as of 9:30 a.m. in New York, tracking 10-year Treasuries today as those yields rose from 3.64 percent to the highest since July 13, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Yields on the mortgage securities, which typically increase loan rates by similar amounts, have risen from 3.27 percent on Nov. 4. Benchmark Treasury yields have jumped as the Federal Reserve embarks on buying an additional $600 billion of U.S. government debt in a bid to spur economic growth.
• Merkel Tells CDU Gathering Europe Can't Afford to Let Shared Currency Fail. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the euro is the glue that holds Europe together, signaling that an Irish bailout may be the price of preserving European unity. Merkel is “trying to send a clear message that Germany is pro-European, that they are ready to help out Ireland, Portugal and other countries if necessary and they will not put the euro at risk,” Henrik Enderlein, a political economist at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin, said by phone. She “wants the Irish to take the bailout now to make it clear to everyone that the situation is safe, that markets should calm down.”

Wall Street Journal:

• Portugal Finance Minister: Ireland Must Take Account of What is Best for Euro. Portugal's finance minister said the Irish government must take into account what is best for the euro zone as well as the country when it decides whether to seek financial help from the European Union and International Monetary Fund.
• SEC to Issue Proposal to Register Hedge Funds. The Securities and Exchange Commission will meet Friday to consider new rules to force hedge funds and other private funds to register with the agency and to undergo exams. The SEC, which placed a notice of the meeting on its website, also will vote on proposing rules to quadruple the threshold for SEC oversight of investment advisers, to $100 million of assets under management from $25 million. Under such a move, thousands of smaller hedge funds and other investment advisers would be overseen by state regulators. The SEC will propose language creating an exemption from registration for venture-capital funds and hedge funds with less than $150 million under management in the U.S.

CNBC:

• Bove: Market Doomed Because of QE2? A growing chorus of critics are sounding the alarm about QE2; in fact they think it has the potential to be the downfall of the US. We know that's dramatic but that's effectively what widely followed strategist Dick Bove of Rochdale told us on the Halftime Report. He believes the economic damage generated by QE2 could doom America to a fate similar to the Weimar Republic, which you'll remember disintegrated into Hitler’s chancellorship largely due runaway inflation and a government perceived as grossly inept.
• US Credit Card Delinquencies Fall as Outlook Improves.
• Fed Stimulus Policy is Counterproductive: Economist. The Fed’s stimulus-oriented policy is counterproductive to its mission: boosting jobs and small business confidence, David Malpass, president of Encima Global, an economic research and consulting firm, told CNBC on Monday. “Should the Fed be borrowing $600 billion from banks—banks that otherwise would lend to small businesses and dump it into the federal government?” he said. “It doesn’t make sense; it’s not necessary. And it diverts attention from what should be going on, which is the government getting its act in order.”

Business Insider:

• Oh Boy, California Munis Are Getting Crushed Again Today. This is getting scary. Following a week of utter drubbing in the muni, California bonds are getting crushed today. The PIMCO California Municipal Income Fund is down 3%. There's something extremely PIIG-like about the speed of this collapse right now. Bear in mind that California has at least $12 billion in fresh auctions this week.

Zero Hedge:

• Next Up On The Xtranormal Docket: High Frequency Trading Explained by Cartoons. (video)
• $7.9 Billion POMO Closes as Fed Ties China for Top Global Holder of US Treasurys With $868 Billion.
  

New York Times:

• Putting Money on Lawsuits, Investors Share in the Payouts. Large banks, hedge funds and private investors hungry for new and lucrative opportunities are bankrolling other people’s lawsuits, pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into medical malpractice claims, divorce battles and class actions against corporations — all in the hope of sharing in the potential winnings.
• Cuomo Issues New Subpoena to Quadrangle About Rattner.
  

ProPublica:

• Goldman(GS), JPMorgan(JPM) Lobbyists Top the List With Most Visits to Regulators on FinReg. Since July, financial regulators have had more than 500 meetings with lobbyists from hundreds of companies seeking to shape the interpretation and enforcement of new financial reform law, according to the Los Angeles Times. Most groups in these meetings—more than 90 percent, according to the Times—are banks, hedge funds, and other big companies that rely on the financial industry.

AdWeek:

• Netflix(NFLX) Unbound: Will Its Rise Hasten Hulu's Demise?

Politico:

• Charlie Rangel Walks Out of Ethics Trial. Complaining bitterly that he was denied the right to have an attorney present, an emotional Rep. Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) walked out of his highly publicized public ethics trial Monday morning, an unexpected twist in the ethics inquiry has tarnished Rangel’s four-decade congressional career. The ethics panel, after an unexpected 40-minute private session, rejected Rangel’s request to delay the trial and went ahead anyway. The witness chair where Rangel was supposed to sit was empty, a dramatic sign of Rangel’s refusal to participate.
• Blue Dogs Target Nancy Pelosi, Democratic Rules. Members of the Blue Dog Coalition of conservative House Democrats are developing a series of amendments to caucus rules that would strip away Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi's power to appoint allies to top party posts. Drafts of the amendments obtained by POLITICO would ensure open elections for the chairmanship of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the top Democratic slot on the House Rules Committee, the post of assistant to the leader and the co-chairmen of the Democratic Steering and Policy Committee, which hands out committee assignments. A fifth amendment would create new Steering and Policy Committee co-chairmanships for outreach and messaging.

Rasmussen Reports:

• 58% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law, 37% Oppose Repeal. Voters continue to favor repeal of the new national health care plan, and most continue to believe the law will be bad for the country overall. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 58% of Likely Voters at least somewhat favor repeal of the health care law. Thirty-seven percent (37%) oppose repeal. These findings include 46% who Strongly Favor Repeal and 30% who Strongly Oppose it.

USA Today:

• Napolitano Asks Fliers for 'Patience' on Body Scanners. The nation's Homeland Security chief asked for air travelers' "cooperation" and "patience" with full-body scanning and pat downs this holiday season amid a growing public backlash that the airport tactics are intrusive. "Each and every one of the security measures we implement serves an important goal," Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano writes in a column for today's USA TODAY, which asks the public to be a partner in defending against terrorism. Yet some consumer, civil rights and pilots groups are protesting new Transportation Security Administration (TSA) methods they say go too far. "The public is done with their rights being violated," says Kate Hanni, executive director of the travel group flyersrights.org. "People are just furious" about the body scanners, which peer beneath clothing, and pat downs of their private areas if they refuse to be scanned.

Reuters:

• Q+A - How Tough Will US CFTC Be on Speculators? Companies that trade energy, metals and agricultural futures and swaps are closely watching how tough a stance the U.S. futures regulator takes against speculators in new position limits for commodities.

Financial Times:

• Portugal Warns on Bail-Out Risk.

Irish Independent:

• Lenihan 'to seek EU funds for the banks'. Move would let State save face and avoid bailout threat. FINANCE Minister Brian Lenihan is considering asking for money for Irish banks from the EU emergency fund in a bid to fend off a threatened bailout for the State. The Irish Independent understands Mr Lenihan may ask fellow European finance ministers in Brussels tomorrow if it would be possible for the banking sector alone to access money from the rescue fund.

The Post.IE:

• Pensions to Be Biggest Hedge Fund Investors. Pension funds will be the biggest net investor in hedge funds in the five years to December 2013, according to research from Bank of New York Mellon. A study by the bank predicted that hedge funds would see net inflows of $252 billion from pension funds during the five-year period.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth (+.25%)

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -1.43% 2) Internet -.64% 3) Networking -.53%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• WCN, EGO, JNPR, UNH, AMZN, TNE, TIE, THOR, MMYT, TRIT, KAMN, JST, CETV, IDSA, AKAM, MIPS, CTRP, REGN, HSFT, CCME, EVY and EVN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) PDE 2) JOYG 3) JWN 4) XCO 5) F
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TUES 2) RINO 3) COF 4) MU 5) XOM
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value (+.67%)

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +2.50% 2) Oil Tankers +1.92% 3) Banks +1.47%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• F, ISLN, LAD, BUCY, HTWR, TSTC, JOYG, ASYS, FIRE, TSLA, HGSI, BYI, CNH and TEX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NVS 2) MTG 3) BUCY 4) WY 5) NXY
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ABFS 2) CSC 3) BJ 4) JCI 5) MDR
  

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Ireland Urged to Take Aid by Officials Amid Debt Crisis. Ireland rejected speculation that it was seeking a rescue before a Nov. 16 meeting of European finance ministers as Germany pushed for aid to calm volatility that sent borrowing costs of debt-laden countries to records. A bailout hasn’t been discussed by Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen’s Cabinet, Enterprise Minister Batt O’Keeffe said today on Dublin-based broadcaster RTE, refuting talk that there is a “crisis.” He said Ireland has no immediate need for cash.
  
• Auto Asset-Backed Bonds Rally as GM's IPO Looms. The car and truck industry is gaining the confidence of bond investors as sales soar and General Motors Co. prepares an initial public offering of stock this week. Yields on securities tied to auto loans and leases have narrowed to 80 basis points more than the benchmark swap rate from 95 basis points three months ago, according to Barclays Capital. Spreads on bonds tied to other consumer debt, such as credit-card and student loans, were unchanged at 73 basis points.
• Harbinger Investigated by SEC, U.S. Attorney Over Loan to Founder Falcone. Harbinger Capital Partners is being investigated by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Attorney’s office over a $113 million loan to founder Philip Falcone and possible preferential treatment of some investors, according to two people with knowledge of the probe. Falcone, 48, took the loan from the Harbinger Capital Partners Special Situations Fund in October 2009 to pay personal taxes, Bloomberg Markets Magazine reported in September. At the time, investors were barred from exiting the fund because it had assets tied up in the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The New York-based firm disclosed the loan in the fund’s March 12, 2010, financial statements.
• China's 4 Big Banks to Halt Property Loans Till Year-End: Paper. China’s four biggest state banks will not issue any new loans to property developers for the remainder of the year, the state-run China Real Estate Business reported, citing unidentified executives at the banks. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., China Construction Bank Corp, Bank of China Ltd. and Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., had met their allotted loan targets for the year, according to a copy of a report e-mailed to Bloomberg News by the newspaper yesterday. Approvals of new loans had ceased since the end of October, the newspaper said.
• China's 2010 Lead Consumption Growth May Slow to 11% on Lower Auto Sales. China’s consumption is expected to grow at 11 percent in 2010, down from 16.5 percent last year, as demand from auto leadproduction and telecommunications slows, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co.
• OECD Sees Risk of Australia Inflation Pressure, Urges Vigilance by RBA. Australia’s central bank should be ready to extend interest-rate increases as a once-in-a-century resources boom stokes the economy and risks faster inflation, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said. “The slack in the economy is rapidly disappearing as unemployment is nearing its natural rate,” the Paris-based OECD said in a report today. The Reserve Bank of Australia “should remain vigilant” and “tighten policy if demand pressures on productive capacities intensify,” it said.
• BHP(BHP) Restarts Buyback After Scrapping $40 Billion Potash(POT) Bid. BHP Billiton Ltd. , the world’s largest mining company, resumed a share buyback after abandoning its $40 billion cash offer for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. following Canada’s rejection of the bid. BHP will buy $4.2 billion shares under a $13 billion buyback program it suspended in 2007, the Melbourne-based company said today in a statement.

Wall Street Journal:

• Fresh Attack on Fed Move. GOP Economists, Lawmakers Call for Abandoning $600 Billion Bond Purchase. A group of prominent Republican-leaning economists, coordinating with Republican lawmakers and political strategists, is launching a campaign this week calling on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to drop his plan to buy $600 billion in additional U.S. Treasury bonds. "The planned asset purchases risk currency debasement and inflation, and we do not think they will achieve the Fed's objective of promoting employment," they say in an open letter to be published as ads this week in The Wall Street Journal and the New York Times. The increasingly loud criticism of the Fed comes as some economic officials outside the U.S. are criticizing the central bank's move to effectively print money, which has the side effect of pushing down the dollar on world currency markets. President Barack Obama last week defended the Fed. The move to buy more bonds, known as quantitative easing, "was designed to grow the economy," not cheapen the dollar, he said. "Printing money is no substitute for pro-growth fiscal policy," said Rep. Mike Pence, an Indiana Republican who has been privy to early discussions with the group of conservatives rallying opposition to the Fed plan. He said the signatories to the letter "represent a growing chorus of Americans who know that we should be seeking to stimulate our economy with tax relief, spending restraint and regulatory reform rather than masking our fundamental problems by artificially creating inflation."
• Arcelor(MT) Takes a Look at Massey(MEE). Europe-Based Steelmaker Expresses Interest as U.S. Coal Miner Considers Its Strategic Options.
• Goldman(GS) Hits a Setback on Payback. Dividend Issue Stalls Bid to Return to Berkshire Billions It Lent During Crisis; Buffett's Cash Hoard. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has hit a delay in its efforts to win U.S. government approval to pay back a $5 billion investment from Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. because the Federal Reserve first wants to hammer out guidelines on bank dividend increases, according to people familiar with the matter.
• The Fed vs. Brazi's Reformers. Brazil's President-elect Dilma Rousseff may be pressured to respond to U.S. monetary easing with more protectionism and higher taxes.

CNBC:

• China to Consider Hot Money Policies: Report. China may deploy a mixture of policies to fend off hot money, an official paper cited a central bank executive as saying at the weekend, amid worries that the United States' policies could create unwelcome flows of capital toward China.
• Greenspan: High US Deficits Could Spark Bond Crisis.
  

IBD:

• High-End Retailers Expected to Set A Fast Pace in Christmas Sales. If analysts' forecasts are on target, chains including Saks (SKS), Nordstrom (JWN), Coach (COH) and Tiffany & Co. (TIF) will be among the front-runners in the race to lure shoppers during the crucial Christmas period.

NY Times:

• 'Smart' Meters Draw Complaints of Inaccuracy. Sgt. John Robertson 2nd, an Army mechanic at nearby Fort Hood, is fuming about the so-called smart electric meter his local utility has installed on the side of his tidy, 1,800-square-foot home. Like thousands of consumers with the new meters around the country, Sergeant Robertson suspects the device is not as smart as advertised. In his case, he says it is inaccurately measuring his family’s power use and driving up his bills — some months by as much as 50 percent, to as high as $320 — since it was installed in December. This, he said, is despite his efforts to cut back on energy use.

NY Post:

• Storage Leader EMC(EMC) Agrees to Purchase Isilon(ISLN). EMC is expected to announce as early as today that it has reached a deal to buy Isilon, which stores video and digital images, The Post has learned. In the past few weeks, exclusive talks between EMC and Isilon had gone cold over price, but the two sides were very close to an agreement over the weekend, a person close to the situation said, and barring last-minute complications were set to seal the deal early this week.

CNNMoney:

• Jim Chanos: China's Treadmill to Hell. (video)
• Canada's Coming Housing Bust.
  

Business Insider:

• Wow -- Check Out How Blatantly Our Government Misled Us With the October Jobs Numbers! It turns out that there was a simple reason why the payroll numbers looked so good--a reason that had nothing to do with underlying strength of the jobs market. What was that reason? The government changed the "seasonal adjustment" it made to the payroll numbers--and, in so doing, boosted the number of "jobs" created in October by 100,000.
• Greece Just Voted for Three More Years of Austerity and Reform. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won a vote of approval in today's run-off regional elections, which is great news for Greek bondholders.
• Portuguese Foreign Minister Says Country May Need to Leave Euro. Portuguese foreign minister Luis Amado has suggested his country might need to leave the eurozone if it cannot come to agreement on an austerity budget, according to Expresso (via WSJ.com)
• The Future-Proof Entrepreneur: 25 New Tech Treands You Need to Know About.

Zero Hedge:

• Is QE2 A Stealthy $90 Billion Gifting Scheme to the Primary Dealers? We have previously discussed how due to the inability to know at what price (par or market) the Fed is buying back bonds from the Primary Dealers, there is a distinct possibility that due to the par-market difference, especially with many CUSIPs trading near record prices over par, the Fed may be implicitly letting PDs pocket the market-to-notional difference. The total, as shown below, could amount to over $40 billion.
• Erik Nielsen's Resurgent Optimism Doused as Europe is on the Verge Again. Who would have thought it only takes for PIIGS spreads to go back to all time records, and for Ireland and Portugal to be hours away from joining Greece in the bailout corner, for Goldman's Erik Nielsen to turn bearish again. To wit: "if investors are running for the door out of fear of being the last one left behind, then there’ll be a liquidity crisis (as there would be for anyone with a financing need), and they’ll need help."

Washington Post:

• Opposition to U.S. Trial Likely to Keep Mastermind of 9/11 Attacks in Detention. Khalid Sheik Mohammed, the self-proclaimed mastermind of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, will probably remain in military detention without trial for the foreseeable future, according to Obama administration officials.

Forbes:

• Let's Use Tax Incentives to Untangle Housing Mess. Once the overabundance of housing is absorbed, a new market can emerge operating on a sustainable growth trend devoid of Congressional interference.
  

Politico:

• Senate Democrats Float Health Tax Repeal. Senate Democrats said Friday that they’re prepared to repeal a new tax reporting requirement in the health care reform law that has riled up small businesses over concern that the law is too burdensome.
• Shuler: I'll Run if Pelosi Does. Did Speaker Nancy Pelosi lead Democrats to the “land of milk and honey” or to a midterm election debacle? The debate among Democrats, which pits its greatly diminished Blue Dog Coalition, particularly Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.) against those loyal to Pelosi, continued throughout the weekend, with Shuler making it clear he would launch a largely symbolic challenge against Pelosi for the position of House minority leader if she opts to run.

Reuters:

• Falcone Applies for Another Loan, Clients Fume. Billionaire money manager Philip Falcone, facing regulatory scrutiny for having borrowed $113 million from his hedge fund, is now taking a more conventional path to getting a loan -- he's going to a bank.
• Japan Manages Q3 Growth Spurt But Soft Patch Looms. Japan's economic growth accelerated in the third quarter as expiring government stimulus steps gave consumption a last-minute boost, marking an upward blip in a moderate slowdown that is leading the economy to a standstill.
• SAIC Agrees to Take GM Stake in IPO. China's SAIC Motor Corp Ltd has agreed to take a stake in General Motors Co [GM.UL] if Chinese regulators approve a deal to deepen an existing alliance between the two automakers, four people familiar with the matter said.
• Lacker Says Fed's New Easing Push Too Risky. Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker indicated on Sunday he opposed the central bank's new round of monetary easing, saying he believed the policy was potentially dangerous and likely ineffective. Lacker, a vocal inflation hawk, said in a speech to economics teachers at the regional central bank's headquarters that monetary policy can lower joblessness only temporarily. "Trying to keep unemployment permanently lower than it otherwise would be is a recipe for continually accelerated inflation," he said, pointing to the inflation experience of the 1960s and 1970s as a cautionary tale.
• Obama Sees Prospect of Deals on Tax Cuts, START. U.S. President Barack Obama said on Sunday he was hopeful of working out a deal with Republicans over tax cuts and of winning ratification of a new nuclear weapons treaty with Russia.

Financial Times:

• Troubled California Begins $14 Billion Bond Sale.

Sunday Times:

• Allied Irish Bank Plc's deposit outflow since June is on a similar scale to that experienced by Bank of Ireland Plc's. Dublin-based Bank of Ireland said on Nov. 12 that it's loan-to-deposit ratio had risen to about 160% from 145% on June 30 after outflows of its customer deposits in its capital markets business.

Independent:

• Cowen Fury at BBC 'When Not Whether' Bailout Claim. The Irish Government has denied for the second time in 24 hours that it is in bailout talks with the EU, after the BBC reported yesterday that "preliminary talks" on financial support are taking place. The BBC report made the unsubstantiated statement that recourse to the EU bailout fund was "no longer a matter of whether but when".

Expansion:

• Spain's bailout fund FROB may need to raise more than $1.37 billion to aid savings banks, citing people familiar with the matter.

Economic Daily News:

• China's central bank may raise interest rates twice late this year and early next year, citing Chen Xikang, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Sciences. China's consumer prices may growth 4% in November and December, citing Chen. Prices may rise 4.7% next year, Chen said.

Kyodo:

• Siegfried Hecker, former head of the Los Alamos National Laboratory in the U.S., said he was told North Korea is building an experimental light-water reactor at a facility in Nyeongbyeon.

China Securities Journal:

• China needs faster yuan gains to curb "imported" inflation caused by more expensive global commodities, citing Ba Shushong, a researcher at the State Council's Development Research Center.

Financial News:

• China should return to prudent monetary policy as soon as possible, citing Zhang Jianhua, the head of the central bank's research bureau.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:

• Made positive comments on (BWA) and (ORCL).

Citigroup:

• Upgraded (CL) to Buy, target $85.
• Reiterated Buy on (JCP), target $38.
• Reiterated Buy on (OCLR), target $12.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.0% to +.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.0 +3.0 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 102.50 +4.5 basis points.
• S&P 500 futures +.23%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.29%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (LOW)/.30
• (GYMB)/1.29
• (URBN)/.42
• (JWN)/.51
• (MCP)/-.10

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Advance Retail Sales for October are estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.6% gain in September.
• Retail Sales Less Autos for October are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in September.
• Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas for October are estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in September.
• Empire Manufacturing for September is estimated to fall to 14.0 versus a reading of 15.73 in August.

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for September are estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.6% gain in August.

Upcoming Splits

• (HCSG) 3-for-2
• (WCN) 3-for-2
• (RAI) 2-for-1
• (AOS) 3-for-2

Other Potential Market Movers

• The (RAI) Investor Meeting, (DOV) Investor Meeting and the (IART) Analyst Forum could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as investment manager performance angst, diminishing economic fear, seasonal strength and buyout speculation offset profit-taking, rising eurozone sovereign debt angst, China hard-landing worries and more shorting. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving mostly bullish signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,199.21 -2.17%*



The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change