Friday, October 12, 2012

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 11:26 AM
Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.07%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +.97% 2) Tobacco +.95% 3) Drugs +.46%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • MMR, NPSP and JBHT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CLWR 2) INFY 3) AMD 4) DLTR 5) EXPR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) DVN 2) PGR 3) YUM 4) CELG 5) IBM
Charts:
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Friday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 12:59 AM
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Ryan: What Kind of Country Are We Going to Be? (video) Vice Presidential Candidate Paul Ryan speaks at the Vice Presidential Debate.
  • Hollande Robbed of Growth Driver as Companies Curb Investments. French companies aren’t investing much at home these days. A no-growth economy had already damped spending when President Francois Hollande’s government late last month unveiled a budget that slaps companies with 10 billion euros ($13.1 billion) of tax increases for next year. Executives are returning the favor by suspending investments. “On investment, the word right now is caution,” Stanislas de Bentzmann, co-chief executive officer of Devoteam SA (DVT), a telecommunications services company based on the outskirts of Paris, said in an interview. “September was a terrible month, growth came to a halt. Now the government is pouring oil on the fire. The tax increases aren’t encouraging for business.”
  • China Room to Ease Seen Fading as Inflation Lull Set to End. A U.S. drought that pushed soybean and corn prices to records is adding to the risk of a rebound in inflation in China, where consumer-price gains were probably close to the slowest in two years in September. Inflation was 1.9 percent last month, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey before a report on Oct. 15. Credit Agricole CIB says the rate may approach 4 percent by year-end and Citigroup Inc. estimates a pace of about 3.5 percent. The prospect of faster price gains in coming months may encourage policy makers to refrain from cutting interest rates for a third time this year, contrasting with reductions in Brazil, South Korea and Australia and adding to the risk economic growth will be the weakest since 1999. Increased grain costs are feeding into pork prices and the government is also battling to prevent a rebound in the housing market. “Inflation will rise in the fourth quarter as pork and other food prices are expected to climb and housing costs are creeping up,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist and strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong. “This means there is no room for the central bank to cut interest rates.” 
  • Copper Traders Most Bearish Since June on Economies: Commodities. Copper traders are the most bearish in four months on mounting concern that demand for industrial metals will weaken as growth slows from China to Europe.  
  • Japan and China Agree to Hold Talks on Dispute After Noda Call. Japan and China agreed to talks aimed at reducing tensions over a territorial dispute a day after Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda warned that without negotiations Asia’s two biggest economies would suffer. Officials from both countries agreed to hold vice- ministerial level discussions at an unspecified date, Japan’s Foreign Ministry said last night. Shinsuke Sugiyama, director- general of the ministry’s Asia-Pacific bureau, met with Chinese counterpart Luo Zhaohui in Tokyo yesterday and began preparations for the talks, according to a statement.
  • Japan’s Government Cuts Economic Assessment for Third Month. Japan’s government cut its assessment of the nation’s economy for a third straight month, the longest streak since the 2009 global recession.“The economic recovery is in a weak tone recently due to deceleration of the world economy,” the Cabinet Office said in its monthly report for October released in Tokyo today. The cut in the government’s assessment marks the longest run of downgrades since the five months through February 2009.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Biden and Ryan Slug It Out, Differences on Display. If Americans wanted to know what a real debate sounds like, they got one Thursday night, courtesy of the two men who are supposed to be taking second billing in the presidential race. Vice President Joe Biden and Rep. Paul Ryan provided millions of Americans the kind of slugfest the presidential contenders themselves didn't provide in their first debate. It was potent and lively, and nobody could walk away wondering what the differences were between what the two parties stood for. 
  • Best Buy(BBY) Plays Web Hardball. Retailer Will Match Online Prices, Shrugs off 'Showrooming'. 
  • Spain Says Downgrade Won't Affect Plans. Officials Will Still Try to Raise Money on Financial Markets Despite S&P Move That Leaves Rating Close to Junk Status. Spanish officials voiced defiance on Thursday after a credit downgrade left the country's rating close to junk status at two firms, saying the surprise move wouldn't affect their plans to raise money on financial markets. Financial analysts said Wednesday's move by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services is likely to increase pressure on one of the euro zone's most-fragile economies to seek a European Union bailout.
CNBC: 
  • Green Regs May Make NYers See Red Over Oil Bills. Fuel price shocks that had Californians gasping at record high pump prices over $5 a gallon may next hit heating oil users in New York, where depleted supplies and new green regulations could push bills up sharply this winter. 
  • US Fiscal Cliff Is 'Major Concern' for World: IMF's Zhu. The U.S. needs to provide more clarity to ease fears about the “fiscal cliff’” of tax hikes and spending cuts that are due to kick in in January, Zhu Min, deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Friday. “It’s very clear that if the whole tax package moves off the table it will immediately bring the U.S. into a recession, which will have a huge negative impact on the whole world,” Zhu told CNBC on the sidelines of the IMF’s semi-annual meetings in Tokyo.
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
Washington Post:
  • Ryan presses Biden on Libya. (video) The debate started with foreign policy, a topic absent from the presidential debate last week. Rep. Paul Ryan accused Vice President Biden tonight – and by extension President Obama – of failing to candidly acknowledge the facts surrounding the recent deadly attack on the U.S. diplomatic in Libya. The Sept. 11 strike on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, which killed U.S. Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and three other Americans, has exposed the Obama administration in the campaign’s stretch run on an issue (national security) it considers a political strength. The attack, connected to the al Qaeda affiliate in North Africa, was bad enough. But the administration’s changing explanation for what happened that day – a spontaneous protest or a coordinated attack on a thinly protected U.S. mission? – has drawn Republican accusations of a White House cover-up to avoid a politically damaging acknowledgement of a terrorist strike. “It took the president two weeks to acknowledge this was a terrorist attack,” Ryan said. “If we are hit by terrorists we’re going to call it what it is: A terrorist attack.”
NY Times:
  • Panetta Warns of Dire Threat of Cyberattack on U.S. Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta warned Thursday that the United States was facing the possibility of a “cyber-Pearl Harbor” and was increasingly vulnerable to foreign computer hackers who could dismantle the nation’s power grid, transportation system, financial networks and government.
Reuters: 
  • Permanent fix of U.S. housing to take time: Home Depot(HD) CEO. The U.S. housing market is starting to thaw, but it could be two years before a full-blown recovery takes hold, Home Depot Inc Chief Executive Frank Blake said on Thursday. The world's largest home improvement retailer has seen the benefits of the nascent U.S. housing recovery as professional contractors have started buying more in recent months. "It's starting to recover, but we're a long way away from true recovery," Blake, 63, told Reuters in a wide-ranging interview that touched on his views of the so-called Fiscal Cliff to why he sees the internet as Home Depot's next frontier. The comments came less than a week after two influential Federal Reserve officials blamed the disappointing rebound in U.S. housing for continuing to trip up the country's overall economic recovery. "This housing market's been very, very bad and it's going to take some time to recover," Blake said. 
  • Amazon(AMZN) CEO confirms Kindle sold "at cost". Amazon Chief Executive Jeff Bezos confirmed on Thursday that the online retailer sells its Kindle e-reader "at cost", with profit coming instead from sales of online content. 
  • AMD(AMD) warns of revenue drop as PC demand crumbles. Chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices Inc said on Thursday its third-quarter revenue likely fell 10 percent from the previous quarter as a weak global economy and growing preference for tablets slams the PC industry. AMD's pre-announcement is the latest warning about the PC industry. It follows Intel's warning in September that its quarterly revenue would be much lower than expected. 
  • Summers says payroll tax break should be extended. President Barack Obama's former economic aide, Larry Summers, said on Thursday that the payroll tax break for 160 million Americans should be extended in order to help promote economic growth. The payroll tax, which funds the federal Social Security retirement program, is set to revert to 6.2 percent from 4.2 percent at the end of the year. "This is not the right moment to repeal the payroll tax cut," Summers told the Center for American Progress think tank. "It is $120 billion that enables cash-strapped families to spend money on what they need and provides incentives certainly for small businesses and perhaps beyond," he said. Summers said it was critical to spur growth and increase demand and warned that the country was still at risk of a "lost decade" of the "great stagnation." 
  • India's Infosys(INFY) Cuts Outlook as Global Clients Squeeze Costs.  
  • China Sept vehicle sales down 1.8 pct yr-on-yr.
South China Morning Post: 
  • ECB's Coeure says c. bank won't be bullied: paper. The European Central Bank will not cave in to market pressure and buy bonds of euro zone governments whose borrowing costs have reached unsustainable levels if the country does not comply to the ECB’s rules, Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said. The ECB impressed markets last month by launching a new and potentially unlimited bond purchase programme under which it will buy governments’ short-term bonds once they have signed up to a European bailout programme. In an interview to be published on Friday in German newspaper Die Welt, Coeure doused hopes that the ECB would intervene regardless of whether its conditions were met once a country’s borrowing costs soared. “We will not cave in, but only intervene once our conditions have been met. We will prove it to you,” Coeure said, adding that the bank would only buy bonds if the International Monetary Fund was involved, even if only to monitor the programme. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde on Thursday said that struggling European countries such as Greece should be given more time to reduce their budget gaps. Coeure, however, stressed that the ECB would not help Greece beyond providing solvent banks with liquidity in return for sufficient collateral. “It has to be clear that the central bank will not finance governments via the printing press, neither direct nor indirect. This means: If further emergency loans to banks are purely for buying government bonds, then the ECB Council should not approve it,” Coeure said.
China Daily:
  • China's chances of meeting its 2012 foreign trade growth target of 10% are "hopeless," citing a "well-placed" person. The newspaper cites the European debt crisis as a reason.
China Securities Journal:
  • Chinese manufacturers based in Yiwu in the eastern province of Zhejiang received fewer Christmas orders this year because of weak demand from overseas clients. Fewer holiday orders may hurt China's exports in September and 3Q, citing Zhang Lei, an analyst at Minsheng Securities Co.
China Business News:
  • Chinese banks won't likely pick up lending in 4Q as demand from companies remains weak, citing officials at commercial banks. Banks favor loans to state-run enterprises and their subsidiaries and have been more picky about the sectors they lend to, the report cites officials as saying. Economic fundamentals and poor earnings have deterred banks from lending, the report said.
Shanghai Securities News:
  • Researchers with China's Ministry of Land and Resources called for "appropriately" increasing land supplies to ease demand pressure and help stabilizing home prices, citing a meeting.
Economic Information Daily:
  • Chinese large and medium-sized steelmakers had a combined loss of 4.2b yuan in August, citing an official with the China Iron & Steel Association. Steelmakers had a combined loss of 3.2b yuan in Jan.-Aug. period, the report says.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.0 -4.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 109.50 -1.5 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.35%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.14%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (JPM)/1.20
  • (WFC)/.86
  • (WBS)/.46
  • (IGTE)/.37
  • (DRH)/.18
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Producer Price Index for September is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +1.7% gain in August.
  • The PPI Ex Food & Energy for September is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in August.
9:55 am EST
  • Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for October is estimated to fall to 78.0 versus 78.3 in September.
2:00 pm EST
  • The Monthly Budget Statement for September is estimated at $75.0B versus -$62.7B in August.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone Industrial Production data, IMF/World Bank Group Annual/Spring Meetings and the (MU) Fall Analyst Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.
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Thursday, October 11, 2012

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Rising Global Growth Fears, US "Fiscal Cliff" Worries, Rising Food/Energy Prices, Homebuilding/Tech Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 3:55 PM
Broad Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 15.58 -4.36%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 -2.40%
  • Total Put/Call .86 -14.0%
  • NYSE Arms .83 -43.19%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 97.30 bps -1.72%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 180.57 bps -2.87%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 141.18 bps -.20%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 222.87 bps -2.24%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 24.5-1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.5 -1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .10% unch.
  • Yield Curve 140.0 -5 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $115.80/Metric Tonne -1.61%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.70 +3.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.47 -8 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +49 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
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Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 3:37 PM
Bloomberg: 
  • Spanish Bonds Risk Forced Selling as Rating Approaches Junk. Spanish government bonds are facing a selloff by investors concerned that the nation’s credit rating will be cut to non-investment grade after Standard & Poor’s lowered its ranking for the debt to one level above junk. Spain’s two-year notes fell for a fourth day, the longest run of declines in six weeks, after New York-based S&P said yesterday it had cut the rating two levels to BBB-. While data compiled by Bloomberg News shows that about half the time government bond yields move in the opposite direction suggested by new ratings, a potential cut to junk may prompt selling by investors who use bond indexes to determine their holdings of fixed-income assets. Moody’s Investors Service is studying a possible downgrade for Spain from its current Baa3 level, its lowest investment- grade rank, and Fitch Ratings scores the country BBB, two steps above junk.
  • Schaeuble Clashes With IMF, Rejects Government Writeoffs. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said European governments can’t accept losses on Greek debt holdings, clashing with the International Monetary Fund. “At the International Monetary Fund, there are indeed considerations that if the total Greek debt was reduced by means of a haircut borne by public creditors, the gap would be easier to close” in terms of Greece’s debt sustainability, Schaeuble said in Tokyo today before a meeting of finance chiefs.
  • Spain Downgrade Undermines ESM's Credit Rating: Chart of the Day. Spain's downgrade threatens to undermine the European Stability Mechanism by accelerating the slide in collective ratings of nations backing the bailout fund. The debt crisis has dragged the average grade almost three steps lower since the fund was given the go ahead in 2010 to the border of single A, compared with the top ranking the ESM holds. Spain's downgrade increases the amount nations backing the bailout fund may have to pay, meaning "they are more likely to be cut and the ESM gets downgraded," said Stuart Thomson, who helps oversee about $120 billion at Ignis Asset Management in Glasgow, Scotland. 
  • Goldman’s Cohn Sees ‘Small’ Chance Euro Area Will Stick Together. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) President and Chief Operating Officer Gary D. Cohn sees a “small” probability that the euro area will stick together, saying it’s more likely that some countries will exit to pursue growth. “In federalism, you create a unified Europe, where the countries that are thriving because of the currency subsidize the countries that are contracting because of the currency,” Cohn said in an interview in Tokyo today. “I would put a relatively small probability of that happening.”
  • Italian Yields Rise at Auction as Concern on Spain Mounts. Italy’s borrowing costs rose at an auction of three-year debt today on concern that Spain’s reluctance to request a bailout will weigh on Italian bonds. The Rome-based Treasury sold 3.75 billion euros ($4.8 billion) of its benchmark three-year bond to yield 2.86 percent, more than the 2.75 percent at the last auction of the same securities on Sept. 13. Investors bid for 1.67 times the amount offered, up from 1.49 times last month.
  • China’s Banks Said to Resist Cutting Lending Rates. China’s biggest banks are resisting government pressure to lower borrowing costs amid an economic slowdown as they seek to maintain the profitability of their lending operations, officials at the top four lenders said. The banks are limiting discounts for their best corporate clients to 10 percent of the benchmark lending rate, the officials said, asking not to be identified as they’re not authorized to speak publicly. The central bank in July began allowing lenders to offer credit at 30 percent less than the benchmark rates. Keeping borrowing costs high may blunt efforts to revive growth that has decelerated for six straight quarters in the world’s second-largest economy. Credit expansion is also limited by the central bank’s loan quotas, the officials said, highlighting the conflicting efforts within China to curb loan defaults while boosting funding for infrastructure projects.
  • Iron-Ore Swaps Extend Decline as Chinese Buying Seen Weakening. Iron-ore swaps fell for a second day on speculation Chinese demand weakened for the commodity used to make steel while higher prices drew more cargoes. Fourth-quarter contracts dropped 2.6% to $110.50 a dry metric ton as of 1:37 pm in London. Higher physical prices drew miners to offer more cargoes as buying slowed, said Kerry Deal, head of iron-ore and bulk derivatives at Jfferies Hong Kong Ltd. 
  • Trade Deficit in U.S. Widened in August as Exports Dropped. The U.S. trade deficit widened in August as slower global growth reduced demand for American exports. The gap grew 4.1 percent to $44.2 billion from $42.5 billion in July, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Exports decreased to the lowest level since February. A separate report showed the cost of goods shipped to the U.S. rose more than forecast in September. A stagnant Europe and slower growth in China and other emerging markets may curtail demand for American products, which had been a source of strength for U.S. manufacturers earlier this year. At the same time, the pickup in energy costs may push up the nation’s import bill, keeping the trade gap elevated. “For the first time, the U.S. economy is gradually feeling the impact from the global growth slowdown,” said Harm Bandholz, chief economist at UniCredit Group in New York, who forecast the deficit would widen to $44 billion. “In the third quarter, the weaker global economy will leave its mark also on the U.S.”
  • Corn Surges to Three-Week High as USDA Sees Smaller World Supply. Corn futures jumped to a three-week high after a government report showed global inventories will drop more than expected as the worst U.S. drought in more than 50 years cuts output by the most since 1996. Worldwide inventories on Oct. 1 will be 117.27 million metric tons, down from 123.95 million predicted a month ago and 131.54 million estimated this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today. Reserves as a percent of consumption will fall to 13.7 percent, the lowest since 1974, USDA data show. Stockpiles in the U.S., the largest grower and exporter, will fall 37 percent to 15.73 million tons, from last year. “This report signals there is absolutely no supply cushion,” Dale Schultz, the buyer-relations manager for AgWest Commodities LLC in Holdrege, Nebraska, said in a telephone interview. “We have to raise prices and reduce demand immediately to prevent a real shortage.” Corn futures for December delivery rose 4.7 percent to $7.715 a bushel at 10:32 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade, heading for the biggest gain since Sept. 28. The price earlier touched $7.7425, the highest since Sept. 17.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Biden-Ryan Debate Likely to Be Combative. Joe Biden and Paul Ryan arrived in Kentucky for a Thursday night debate that has potential to either accelerate or stall the momentum gathering behind Mitt Romney's come-from-behind presidential bid. The debate, to be broadcast nationally at 9 p.m. ET from Centre College in Danville, is expected to be more combative than last week's faceoff between the Republican candidate and President Barack Obama, whose lackluster performance disappointed his supporters.
  • U.S. Growth Is Expected To Be Slow Into 2013.
Fox News:
  • Greek unemployment rate hits 25.1 percent in July as recession heads for sixth year. Unemployment in Greece hit a record high of 25.1 percent in July as the country's financial crisis continues to exact its heavy toll, official figures showed Thursday. All indications are that unemployment in Greece will continue to rise. The economy has shrunk by around a fifth since the recession started in 2008 and youth unemployment has pushed way above 50 percent. The economy is expected to enter a sixth year of recession next year. "This is a very dramatic result of the recession," said Angelos Tsakanikas, head of research at Greece's IOBE economic research foundation.
CNBC: 
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider: 
 Examiner.com: 

  • California independents switch to Romney. While no one expects President Barack Obama to lose California on Nov. 6, former Gov. Mitt Romney is gaining on him. Romney has gained 8 points in California over the past month, according to a poll released Thursday by Survey USA. Obama now leads Romney 53-39, as opposed to 57-35 a month ago. “Obama carried California by 24 points in 2008, “ the pollster said, “so today Obama is running 10 points weaker than he ran 4 years ago, 8 points weaker than he ran 4 weeks ago. Among Independents, Obama led by 14 in September, trails by 9 in October, a 23-point right turn among the most coveted voters.” Independent voters prefer Romney 44-35 percent, according to the poll.
    What makes Romney’s gain impressive is that only nominal amounts of money have been spent in California because it has not been considered friendly territory, and it has made more strategic sense to spend campaign dollars elsewhere.
Reuters:
Financial Times: 
  • Brazil stocks feel impact of intervention. Brokers trying to hawk Brazilian shares to international fund managers in New York and London have had a tough time of it recently. Many joke they have been almost forcibly ejected from the offices of the top “buyside” houses, who are smarting after seeing the share prices of many large Brazilian companies plunge on the back of government intervention.
Telegraph: 
Der Spiegel:  
  • Top German Economists Say Greece Is Lost. Several top German economic institutes on Thursday warned that German growth is slowing as the country continues to be hampered by the ongoing euro-zone debt crisis. And Greece, they say, will be unable to "free itself from its debt burden" and will need another haircut.
The Jerusalem Post: 
Haaretz.com:
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Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:28 PM
Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.03%
Sector Underperformer:
  • 1) Homebuilders -1.80% 2) Disk Drives -.60% 3) Restaurants -.32%
Stocks Faling on Unusual Volume:
  • PCS, CLMT, CNSL, CBS, DG, FDO, MIPS, AAPL, HD, BLX, MLU, DLTR, CTXS, SWC, RGLD, CMN, ONE, CNQR, YUM, SBAC, COST, CERN, CMI, SI, COR, CMG, EXPE, EW, SBS and WSO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) NFX 2) HTZ 3) FAST 4) S 5) SWC
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) PDCE 2) FB 3) FSLR 4) HUM 5) PNC
Charts:
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Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 11:33 AM
Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value +1.13%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +1.39% 2) Steel +1.37% 3) Retail +1.25%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • S, PVTB, DISH, PCS, CTB, FAST, BKS, IRM, WLT and BTU
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CLWR 2) BKS 3) NRG 4) S 5) PXP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) WEN 2) GEL 3) MSFT 4) MCO 5) GG
Charts:
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