Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Stocks Rebounding on More Dovish Fed Commentary, Short-Covering, Homebuilding/Metals Sector Strength

Today's Market Take:

Broad Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 17.13 -9.79%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 +23.53%
  • Total Put/Call 1.09 -4.39%
  • NYSE Arms .85 -70.47%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 89.28 -1.01%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 167.54 +11.5%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 107.33 +8.85%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 237.60 +.79%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 15.0 +.75 bp
  • TED Spread 17.5 +.5 bp
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.5 -1.75 bps
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .11% -1 bp
  • Yield Curve 164.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $151.90/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.70 +12.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.51 -1 bp
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +5 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +36 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Merkel’s Euro Doctrine Threatened as Italians Snub Austerity. Silvio Berlusconi may have the last laugh -- at Europe’s expense. Once the subject of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s barely suppressed titters, the former Italian leader roared back from the political wasteland in yesterday’s election, blocking the formation of a new Italian government and fracturing the euro zone’s brittle newfound stability. The billionaire’s resurrection coupled with the emergence of comedian-turned-politician Beppe Grillo risked igniting anti- austerity forces in southern Europe’s depressed economies, overturning the German-led crisis-management formula and renewing doubts about popular backing for the euro. “This is a catastrophe for Europe,” Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn said in a telephone interview. “There are a lot of people in Italy, in Europe, who think that Europe is to blame for Italy’s problems. Second, I have very serious doubts that populism would make it possible to find a solution to create stability in Italy.” 
  • Italy Confronts Vacuum as Leaders Seek to Avoid Election.Italian party chiefs began jockeying to forge a coalition of rivals and head off a second vote as a political vacuum of at least a month loomed, threatening to whipsaw financial markets. In the aftermath of an inconclusive election, Democratic Party leader Pier Luigi Bersani and resurgent ex-Premier Silvio Berlusconi may be seeking to avoid a ballot that would favor populist Beppe Grillo, whose movement was the top vote-getter in its first national contest. No formal steps can be taken until a new parliament convenes March 15. “If they don’t change strategy and go vote again with similar candidates, the risk is a Grillo landslide,” Giovanni Orsina, a history professor at Luiss Guido Carli University in Rome, said in an interview today.
  • Italy’s Bonds Slump After Inconclusive Elections. Italy’s government bonds slumped, leading declines among securities from Europe’s high-deficit nations, as inconclusive election results triggered renewed concern that the region’s sovereign-debt crisis will worsen. Italian 10-year yields climbed the most in 14 months as results showed pre-election favorite Pier Luigi Bersani won the lower house by less than a half a percentage point, while Silvio Berlusconi, the former premier fighting a tax-fraud conviction, gained a blocking minority in the Senate. Spanish and Portuguese securities also slid, while German and Finnish bonds advanced for a fourth day. Italy sold 8.75 billion euros ($11.4 billion) of six-month bills at the highest yield since October. Italy’s 10-year yield climbed 40 basis points, or 0.4 percentage point, to 4.89 percent at 4:42 p.m. London time after rising as much as 44 basis points, the biggest increase since Dec. 19, 2011. The extra yield, or spread, investors demand to hold Italian 10-year securities instead of similar-maturity bunds widened 50 basis points to 344 basis points after expanding to 347 basis points, the most since Dec. 11.
  • Bank Credit Risk Surges in Europe Amid Italian Election Deadlock. The cost of insuring against default on European bank debt surged to the highest in three months on concern deadlock in Italy’s elections will trigger a flight from risky assets as a political vacuum roils markets. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index of credit-default swaps on 25 banks and insurers climbed 12 basis points to 163, at 11:30 a.m. in London, the highest since Nov. 28 and headed for the biggest monthly increase since May. Contracts insuring Italy’s bonds rose 43 basis points to a 2 1/2-month high of 293, the biggest jump since December 2011. Italy faces months of political turbulence which may see President Giorgio Napolitano install an interim government to write a new election law as the prelude to another vote.
  • “Gridlock in parliament means gridlock in the economy,” Alberto Gallo, the head of European macro credit research at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London, wrote in a client note. “The longer the instability lasts, the more the recession can deepen, pushing up unemployment, defaults and bad loans. In the worst-case scenario, the weaker banks could see deposit outflows re-emerge.” The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of swaps on investment-grade companies rose seven basis points to 120, the highest since Nov. 30. The Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of swaps on 50 companies with mostly speculative-grade ratings climbed as much as 26 basis points to 470, the highest this year before paring the gain to 465 basis points.
  • European Stocks Decline on Italian Election Deadlock. European stocks declined as Italy’s inconclusive parliamentary election renewed concern that the Mediterranean nation will dilute its austerity program and the region’s sovereign-debt crisis will deepen. Italian shares led the retreat, with the FTSE MIB Index (FTSEMIB) tumbling 4.9 percent.
  • ECB Should Join ‘Currency War’ to Weaken Euro, Montebourg Says. The European Central Bank should weaken the euro, confronting the new “currency war” head on to help address economic stagnation in the region, French Industry Minister Arnaud Montebourg said today. Calling for a more activist and “political” management of the currency shared by 17 European nations, Montebourg said at a press conference in Paris that he wants “the European Central Bank to do its job.” “The euro is too strong and doesn’t correspond to economic fundamentals,” he said. The ECB “should prepare to confront a new currency war in which the weakening of currencies becomes a political tool.”
  • Italy Votes for Chaos and the Euro Crisis Is Back. Italy’s parliamentary election could not have gone worse for the country or the euro area. It is now possible that in the coming months the currency zone’s third-largest economy will need a bailout from international creditors, at a time when Italy will have no government in place to ask for, or negotiate, a rescue. In case you had any doubts, the euro-area crisis is back.
  • UBS Sees Iron Ore Plunging 54% to Lowest Since ’09 on Supply. Iron ore, trading near 16-month highs, may slump 54 percent to the lowest level since 2009 as China boosts production and global supply climbs, said UBS AG. (UBSN) Rates may tumble to $70 a ton in the three months ending September after trading between $130 and $160 through June, Sydney-based commodity analyst Tom Price said in a phone interview today. China is the world’s biggest importer. “We expect a big correction in the third quarter,” said Price. “We see a big lift in supply.”
  • Aluminum Falls as Commodities Slide on Inconclusive Italian Vote. Aluminum fell for a seventh session in London as commodities slid amid concern that the euro-area debt crisis might worsen, following an inconclusive election in Italy. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials fell to the lowest since Jan. 17. China, the biggest aluminum consumer, is set to have a “significant” surplus of about 700,000 metric tons that is likely to be partly shipped in the form of semi-fabricated products, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “There is selling across the board as there is so much uncertainty because of Italy,” Walter de Wet, an analyst at Standard Bank Plc, said today in a telephone interview. “The fundamentals are also very weak.” Aluminum for delivery in three months declined 0.5 percent to $2,027.50 a metric ton at 3:09 p.m. local time on the London Metal Exchange. Prices earlier touched $2,010, the lowest since Nov. 29.
  • Brazil’s Unemployment Rises More Than Forecast in January. Brazil’s unemployment rate rose more than analysts predicted in January as the world’s second-biggest emerging economy continues to respond slowly to government efforts to spur growth. The jobless rate jumped to 5.4 percent from the record low 4.6 percent in December, the national statistics agency said in Rio de Janeiro today. Economists had forecast unemployment would rise to 5.2 percent, according to a survey by Bloomberg of 28 analysts.
  • Consumer Confidence in U.S. Increases More Than Forecast. The Conference Board’s index climbed to 69.6, exceeding all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists, from a revised 58.4 in January, data from the New York-based private research group showed today. It was the first improvement in four months and the biggest since November 2011.
Wall Street Journal: 
MarketWatch: 
Fox News:
CNBC: 
  • Foreign Autos Shut Out Big 3 In New Report. In a report that will trouble fans of the Big 3, the annual selection of top automobiles and top brands by Consumer Reports shows Detroit falling behind its foreign competitors. In fact, for the first time since 2007 the top ten vehicles picked by Consumer Reports does not include a model built by General Motors, Ford or Chrysler
  • Bernanke: My Inflation Record at the Fed Is One of the Best. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke strongly defended the central bank's easy monetary policy before a Senate committee on Tuesday and said there's little risk of a spike in inflation in the near term. In criticizing the central bank's easy monetary policy, Sen. Bob Corker, a Republican from Tennessee, called Bernanke the biggest dove since World War II.
  • Why Italy’s Stalemate Could Mean Chaos for Euro Zone.
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider:
Reuters:
  • Strong sales help Home Depot(HD) outshine Lowe's(LOW). Improvements in the U.S. housing market and sales tied to Hurricane Sandy helped Home Depot Inc report a higher-than-expected quarterly profit and outshine rival Lowe's Cos Inc for the 15th straight quarter. 
  • French jobless claims hit 15-year high in Jan. The number of people out of work in France shot up again in January after a smaller rise in December, piling new pressure on Socialist President Francois Hollande who has made tackling joblessness his top priority. The number of jobseekers in mainland France jumped by 43,900 or 1.4 percent, signalling a return to the rapid pace of increase seen over 19 straight months to December - although half of the rise was due to a change in methodology in January. Without the adjustment the January increase would have been 22,800, still a much bigger jump than the 8,000 seen in December and dealing a blow to Hollande, who has promised to stem the rise in unemployment by the end of 2013.
Telegraph: 
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
  • Lars Feld, a member of a panel of economic advisers to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, said the euro crisis will return "with a vengence" as capital loss will lead to higher risk premiums for Italy's interest rates, citing an interview. Anton Boerner, head of Germany's BGA exporters' association, says Italy must reform tax, labor, judicial system or risk "irreparable damage" of euro. Boerner says if Italy not willing to reform, "we have to think about how to deal with a modified eurozone".
Baltic News Service:
  • European Union President Herman Van Rompuy said Italy has "no alternatives" to continuing fiscal reforms. "Now it's up to the leading politicians to make the necessary compromises to form a government on a stable basis and keep the course of fiscal consolidation and reforms. There is no way  back, there are no alternatives."
Valor:
  • Bank of America's(BAC) Brazil credit exposure has risen to $10 billion.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.15%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Education -3.40% 2) Alt Energy -1.13% 3) Gaming -.90%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • TDS, ROSE, EEQ, TI, TTM, CIB, IRE, SU, AMCX, SPWR, NVS, ACHN, VSI, BDBD, OKS, CHMT, HSII, SF, GLF, EXPD, SHOO, INVN, TRAK, OKE, CF, WDR, ECPG, TSN, TV, HFC, XLNX, MELI, QIHU, SGY, WBMD, APOL, VVUS and TWI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) VFC 2) EXPD 3) HD 4) XOP 5) ADSK
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SCHW 2) LO 3) CB 4) JPM 5) UTHR
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value -.14%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilders +2.19% 2) Gold & Silver +1.39% 3) Computer Services +.42%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • HD, CWH, ALC, SLCA and EBIX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SPXS 2) ADSK 3) PCS 4) NDAQ 5) CLX
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ESV 2) AMAT 3) TASR 4) HD 5) AMT
Charts:

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Italy Renews Market Jitters as Voters Reject Monti Austerity. Italy’s inconclusive election triggered renewed market jitters over Europe’s debt crisis as recession-scarred voters repudiated budget rigor and established former comedian Beppe Grillo as a political force. In the four-way race, pre-election favorite Pier Luigi Bersani led for control of the lower house by less than a half percentage point. Silvio Berlusconi, the former premier fighting a tax-fraud conviction and charges of paying a minor for sex, called for a recount and won a blocking minority in the Senate. In its first national contest, Grillo’s group got 25 percent support and was probably the most-voted party in the lower house. “The political situation across Europe is effectively a race between austerity and reforms on the one hand and the rise of populist movements on the other.” said Alberto Gallo, head of European macro credit research at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. “Austerity is painful, and if reforms are not implemented in time, you run the risk of social unrest and populism. It hasn’t happened so far in Greece, it hasn’t happened in Portugal or Spain, but we are very close in Italy.”
  • Grillo’s Anti-Austerity Wave Crashes Into Italian Parliament. Beppe Grillo, the comic banned from Italian television two decades ago for ridiculing a corrupt cadre of ruling lawmakers, had his political satire rewarded yesterday with about 180 seats in Parliament. Grillo’s parliamentary list filled with political neophytes amassed enough votes in yesterday’s election to deny a majority to front-runner Pier Luigi Bersani and a comeback to three-time Premier Silvio Berlusconi. As his competitors seek to cobble together a make-shift alliance, the 64-year-old Grillo is keeping his distance and preparing for a new vote. They can’t hold us back any longer,” Grillo said late yesterday in a video posted to his website. “They might go on another seven or eight months and produce a disaster, but we will be watching and working to keep it under control.”
  • Spanish Graft Distracts Rajoy From Fixing Economy: Euro Credit. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's battle to curb borrowing and revive the Spanish economy is being thrown off track by corruption scandals rocking his party. "The government is so distracted defending itself against accusations that it isn't getting on with the job of getting the economy on track, meeting the huge disgruntlement of the general public and trying to hold the country together," said Marc Ostwald, a strategist at Monument Securities Ltd. in London.
  • U.S. 10-Year Yield Falls Most Since November on Italy’s Vote. Treasuries rose, pushing 10-year yields down the most since November, as polls indicated the euro area’s third-largest economy, Italy, may be left with a hung parliament, stoking refuge demand. “The move today is all about the Italian elections, which is giving a bid to Treasuries,” said Larry Milstein, managing director in New York of government-debt trading at R.W. Pressprich & Co. “When there is concern about one of the largest economics in Europe with one of the largest debt loads in the region, you will see a flight to quality.” 
  • Gillard Slips in Australia Poll as Tax Damages Credibility. Prime Minister Julia Gillard slipped behind opposition rival Tony Abbott as Australia’s preferred leader for the first time since August after her credibility was dented when a mining tax she helped design brought in less revenue than forecast
  • Stagflation Sparks BRIC-Worst Default Risk Surge: Brazil Credit. Brazil’s creditworthiness in the swaps market is eroding at the fastest pace among the biggest developing nations as inflation in Latin America’s largest economy exceeds growth by the most in three years. The cost to protect Brazil’s dollar-denominated government bonds against losses rose 21 basis points in the past month to 128 basis points, increasing the price of credit-default swaps on $10 million of debt to $128,000.
  • Moody’s Promises Caps on Mortgage-Bond Ratings as Terms Loosen. Moody’s Investors Service said it won’t assign its top ratings to certain residential mortgage- bond deals with issuer-friendly terms, signaling a potentially tougher stance than competitors as the market revives. Home-loan securities without government backing probably will be able to get rankings only as high as Moody’s Aa tier if “significant” limits are placed on when and how repurchases can be forced of mortgages that fail to match their stated quality, the New York-based firm said today in a report. 
  • Fed Faces Explaining Billion-Dollar Losses in Stress of QE3 Exit. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s efforts to rescue the economy could result in more than a half trillion dollars of paper losses on the central bank’s books if interest rates rise abruptly from recent levels. That sum is the difference between the value of securities in the Fed’s portfolio on Dec. 31 and what they may fetch in three years, according to data compiled by MSCI Inc. of New York for Bloomberg News.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Messy Italian Election Shakes World Markets. In a national election meant to push Italy further down a path of economic reform, voters delivered political gridlock that could once again rattle Europe's financial stability. Markets in Europe and the U.S. gyrated even in response to early returns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average swung nearly 300 points, ending with its worst day in almost four months, as the prospects of a stable government appeared to drop. 
  • Banks Face Key Hurdle in Libor Fight. Banks suspected by regulators around the world of manipulating interest rates are trying to escape another mire: more than 30 lawsuits filed by borrowers, lenders and other plaintiffs who claim they were cheated by the same financial institutions.
Fox News:
  • Republicans urge Obama to end 'road show,' work with Senate to avert automatic cuts. House Republican leaders on Monday urged President Obama to "stop campaigning" and hunker down with Congress to find an alternative to the bludgeon of spending cuts set to hit Friday, saying now is not the time "for a road-show president." The plea came as the president prepared to head Tuesday to Newport News, Va., a major military community, to highlight the impact of Pentagon cuts on a shipbuilding facility. Obama's Cabinet secretaries also continued to issue dire warnings about the impact of so-called sequestration if the $85 billion in cuts begin to take effect March 1. House Speaker John Boehner and his deputies, emerging late Monday to field a few questions from the press, said the Virginia stop shows Obama is more interested in scoring political points than making a deal. "This is not time for a road-show president," House Republican Whip Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., said. House Republican Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., whose state Obama is visiting, repeatedly accused the president of offering a "false choice" -- between passing tax increases and allowing steep cuts to take effect. The president has blamed Republicans for holding up a deal, which under Obama's terms would include a mix of cuts and revenue increases through closing tax loopholes. Republicans suggest there's still time to replace the sequester with cuts -- not tax hikes -- that makes sense. "If the president was serious, he'd sit down with (Senate Democratic Leader) Harry Reid and begin to address our problems," Boehner said. Boehner was not backing off his insistence that it's the Senate's turn to act
MarketWatch.com:
  • Autodesk(ADSK) declines after hours following outlook. ‘Fear index’ tracker extends its dayside rally. Stock in Autodesk was down 2.7% at $35.63 after the company forecast first-quarter adjusted earnings of 41 cents to 46 cents a share and sales of $570 million to $590 million. Analysts polled by FactSet were expecting, on average, earnings of 51 cents a share on revenue of $588.7 million.
CNBC: 
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
Forbes:
The Detroit News:
  • GM(GM) proposes to pay CEO $11.1 million in '13. General Motors Co. wants to pay its chief executive $11.1 million in total compensation this year — an increase of more than 20 percent over 2012— and offer raises to most of its highest paid executives, according to a document turned over to Congress. The Detroit automaker, which received a $49.5 billion bailout in 2008 and 2009, must get approval for the pay packages for its top 25 executives from the Treasury Department, as a condition of its government bailout. According to a copy of the proposal obtained by The Detroit News from a source familiar with the documents, GM is proposing raises for 18 of its top 25 executives for 2013, with each of those making at least $1.8 million.
Reuters: 
  • California pension liabilities may swell to $328.6 bln -report. New credit evaluation standards for public pension liabilities proposed by Moody's Investors Service would swell unfunded liabilities for California's state and local public pension plans to $328.6 billion from $128.3 billion, according to a report released on Monday. 
Financial Times: 
  • US oil imports from Middle East increase. The US was more reliant on the Middle East for its oil imports last year, underscoring the critical importance of the politically unstable region for the country despite the growing energy independence its shale gas revolution is bringing.
Telegraph:
  • Trillion pound cash mountain to the rescue? It’s unwise to bank on it. Meaningless though it might otherwise be, the downgrade in Britain’s credit rating at least acts as a reminder of just how deeply mired in post-crisis gloom the UK economy really is, and quite how difficult extracting the country from the ruination of more than a decade of banking excess and burgeoning social spending commitments is proving.
Kyodo:
  • Japan Your Party Tells Abe It Opposes Kuroda as BOJ Head. Yoshimi Watanabe, head of Japan opposition Your Party, told Prime Minister Shinzo Abe today.
Beijing Morning Post:
  • Ping An, Minsheng Bank Curbs Mortgage Lending. Ping An Bank and China Minsheng Bank have stopped mortgage lending in Beijing, citing people from the banks. Minsheng has halted second-home mortgages, according to the report. Ping An will stop mortgage lending for the next year.
Shanghai Securities News:
  • Beijing has completed a draft of property control measures, which will be released after the central government issues more detailed policies, citing a person familiar with the matter.
China Securities Journal:
  • China May Tighten Monetary Policy. China may tighten monetary policy because of excessive liquidity in the market and rising property prices, according to a front-page commentary written by a reporter Ren Xiao. China may manage liquidity in 1H by selling repos or reverse repos, the commentary said. Home prices rose for a third month adding pressure to intensify policy-tightening efforts.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.5 +3.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 83.25 +.25 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures -1.52%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (EXPD)/.43
  • (THC)/.67
  • (UNFI)/.50
  • (AZO)/4.76
  • (HD)/.64
  • (AMT)/.77
  • (CBRL)/1.25
  • (M)/1.99
  • (SKS)/.15
  • (PCLN)/6.53
  • (FSLR)/1.77
  • (EIX)/1.05
  • (DWA)/-.10
  • (VNO)/1.08 
Economic Releases
9:00 am EST
  • The S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA for December is estimated to rise +.65% versus a +.63% gain in November.
10:00 am EST
  • Richmond Fed for February is estimated to rise to -4 versus -12 in January.
  • Consumer Confidence for February is estimated to rise to 62.0 versus 58.6 in January.
  • New Home Sales for January are estimated to rise to 380K versus 369K in December.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bernanke Senate Testimony, weekly retail sales reports, 5Y T-Note auction, UK Housing prices, (JPM) investor day, (WBSN) analyst day, RBC Healthcare Conference, Robert Baird Business Solutions Conference, Goldman Ag Conference and the Wells Fargo Real Estate Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Monday, February 25, 2013

Stocks Reversing Sharply Lower on Surging Eurozone Debt Angst, Global Growth Fears, Technical Selling, Financial/Homebuilding/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 16.83 +18.77%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 -16.67%
  • Total Put/Call 1.12 +21.74%
  • NYSE Arms 1.65 +137.60%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 89.20 +3.31%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 150.49 +.31%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 98.60 -1.95%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 235.95 +.60%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 14.25 -.25 bp
  • TED Spread 17.0 +.25 bp
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .12% unch.
  • Yield Curve 164.0 -7 bps
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $151.90/Metric Tonne -1.11%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.0 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.52 -2 bps
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -287 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -108 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long