Wednesday, August 07, 2013

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Covenant-Light Loans Challenge '07 Europe Record: Credit Markets. The riskiest European companies are stepping up their borrowings of loans that lack standard lender protections, with the amount raised this year already exceeding all of 2012 by more than threefold. Private-equity firms from BC Partners Ltd. to Cinven Ltd. raised 4.6 billion-euros of covenant-light loans from non-bank lenders for companies they own in the region, up from 1.4 billion-euros last year, according to S&P Capital IQ Leveraged Commentary and Data. The amount is on pace to challenge the record 7.7 billion euros raised in 2007, before the market for such financings closed for the next four years. European companies are taking advantage of demand from the U.S., where record low interest-rates are encouraging investors to search further afield for high yields - even in places struggling to emerge from recession. About 70% of the covenant-light loans, which often have no restrictions on a borrower's ability to load up on debt, were issued in U.S. dollars, according to Bloomberg.
  • Standard Chartered First-Half Net Income Drops 24 Percent. Standard Chartered Plc (STAN), the U.K. bank that makes about three-quarters of its earnings from Asia, posted a 24 percent drop in first-half profit after writing down the value of its Korean business by $1 billion. Net income fell to $2.18 billion from $2.86 billion a year earlier, the London-based lender said in a statement yesterday. Revenue rose 6.6 percent as growth in Hong Kong and India mitigated declines in Korea, Singapore and China
  • Japan Drives Asian Stock Drop on Yen as Gas to Gold Slide. Asian stocks fell, led by Japanese shares, and the yen rallied to a six-week high on prospects the nation’s central bank will refrain from adding to stimulus. Natural gas futures extended declines and precious metals slid. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index decreased 1 percent to 134.35 at 12:15 p.m. in Tokyo, poised for its biggest drop this month. Japan’s Topix Index sank 1.6 percent.
  • Something's Gotta Give When 15% Loans Sap States: Brazil Credit. States in Brazil are pressuring Congress to cut interest rates on $202 billion in debt as they seek money to meet protester demands for better public services, a move that threatens to strain the nation's budget as borrowing costs rise. "We are being bled every month," Teotonio Vilela Filho, governor of the northeastern state of Alagoas, said about proposals to cut rates on loans including those from the $16.9 billion bailout of states in 1997. "It's a huge burden and we're working so Congress can change this." 
  • Copper Declines as U.S. Trade Data Fuels Fed Stimulus Concern. Copper fell as better-than-expected U.S. trade data fueled concern the Federal Reserve may reduce its bond purchases this year, reducing stimulus from the economy and weakening demand for base metals. Copper for delivery in three months dropped 0.6 percent to $6,966.50 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange at 11:44 a.m. in Tokyo. Futures for delivery in September dropped 0.5 percent to $3.1580 a pound on the Comex in New York.
  • Rubber Declines as Yen’s Gains Cut Appeal Ahead of BOJ Meeting. Rubber declined as the strengthening Japanese currency reduced investor appetite for yen-denominated contracts for the commodity used in tires. Futures for delivery in January fell as much as 1.6 percent to 245.9 yen a kilogram ($2,526 a metric ton) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, before trading at 249.8 yen at 11:04 a.m. local time. Rubber lost 18 percent this year.
  • BofA(BAC) Lied to Investors About Mortgage-Bond Risks, U.S. Says. Bank of America Corp. (BAC:US) was sued by the U.S. for allegedly hiding risks from investors in a 2008 deal for $850 million of bonds backed by residential mortgages. Government lawsuits filed today in federal court in Charlotte, North Carolina, lay out a pattern of intentional acts by bank officials to disguise the mortgages’ risks in disclosures to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and investors. Those accused of fraudulent conduct are identified only by their positions without any names. 
  • JPMorgan(JPM) Sued With Goldman Sachs(GS) in Aluminum Antitrust Case. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM:US), the biggest U.S. bank, was sued with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS:US) over claims it restrained aluminum supplies and drove up prices. The complaint was filed today in federal court in Tallahassee, Florida, by a Jacksonville direct purchaser, Master Screens Inc., and by individual plaintiff Daniel Price Bart of Tallahassee, who is described in the filing as a “purchaser of beverages sold in aluminum cans.”
  • Bats Exchange Trading Restored After One-Hour Shutdown. Bats Global Markets Inc., the fourth-largest U.S. stock exchange operator, shut its main market for almost an hour today amid a malfunction in its computer systems. Trading on the Bats BZX Exchange stopped at 1:10 p.m. New York time and resumed at 2 p.m., according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The issue was caused by an internal network problem, not a software malfunction, Randy Williams, a spokesman for Lenexa, Kansas-based Bats, wrote in an e-mail. “All systems were fully operational for the remainder of the trading day and we fully expect them to run smoothly tomorrow,” he said.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • SEC's Hunt for Crisis-Era Wrongdoing Loses Steam. Hedge Fund Magnetar Won't Face Charges Tied to Mortgages. Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement officials have decided not to recommend filing civil charges against hedge-fund firm Magnetar Capital LLC, which teamed up with Wall Street firms to create mortgage securities that suffered billions of dollars in losses during the financial crisis, according to people familiar with the situation. The decision is a sign the SEC's investigations into whether companies or individuals broke the law with their conduct ahead of the crisis are running out of gas. 
  • China Labor Camps Under Fire from State Think Tank. An influential Chinese government-run think tank is the latest to decry the country’s controversial system of re-education through labor, with a newly published report describing the system as outdated and in violation of judicial principles. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in a political development report published on Monday, said abuses in the system have become increasingly apparent and had given rise to widespread public opposition, according to state media reports  summarizing CASS’s findings.
  • The Other Targeting Scandal. Democrats lobbied the SEC to limit business political donations. The IRS targeting scandal is best understood as part of a larger effort to limit the political speech of conservatives and business groups. That became clearer last week regarding the Federal Election Commission, and now evidence is spreading to the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Fox News:
  • US files charges against Benghazi attack suspects, official says. The Justice Department has filed criminal charges against several suspects in the Benghazi terror attack, a U.S. official tells Fox News.  The U.S. official confirmed that sealed charges were filed against suspects in connection with the Sept. 11, 2012, attack. It's unclear whether they are the same individuals whose images the FBI released to the public in May. One of the individuals charged is Libyan militia leader Ahmed Khattalah. 
  • Fort Hood trial turns bizarre as shooter grills witnesses. The trial of the Fort Hood gunman, who is acting as his own attorney, took a surreal turn as the former Army psychiatrist accused of killing 13 in the November 2009 attack grilled witnesses -- including his former boss in the military and a fellow Muslim who spoke to him the day of the shooting. After a short opening statement in which ex-Army Maj. Nidal Hasan called himself a "mujahedeen," admitted to the rampage and said "the dead bodies will show that war is an ugly thing," Hasan cross-examined prosecution witnesses, including retired Lt. Col Ben Kirk Phillips, his former boss. When pressed by the defendant, Phillips acknowledged that his officer evaluation report had graded Hasan as "outstanding." But he declined to cross-examine one of his shooting victims, Sgt. Alonzo Lunsford, who provided the day’s most damning testimony.
MarketWatch.com:
Zero Hedge:  
Business Insider: 
New York Times:
Mediaite.com:
  • The Other Benghazi Scandal: Journalists Worry Covering The Attack Threatens White House Access. As the one year anniversary of the deadly attack on an American consulate in Benghazi approaches, journalists have begun to take another look into the scandal surrounding the government’s response to that terrorist event. Last week, CNN aired two striking reports revealing that the Central Intelligence Agency had a large number of agents on the ground on the night of the attack and that a suspect in the attack has never been interviewed by investigators. Following these revelatory reports, which some in President Barack Obama’s administration believe represent a political threat, some CNN reporters now fear for their access to the White House. They are not alone.
USA Today: 
  • Evidence suggests new bird flu spread among people. New evidence suggests that a specific strain of the bird flu, H7N9, can be spread between humans. Chinese scientists have found the strongest evidence yet that a new bird flu strain is sometimes able to spread from person to person, but they are emphasizing that the virus still does not transmit easily. The new bird flu strain, known as H7N9, was first reported by Chinese authorities in March. As of the end of May, there were 132 cases and 37 deaths in China and Taiwan linked to the virus.Health officials suspect patients were most likely infected by birds in live animal markets but acknowledged there were probably sporadic cases of the virus spreading among humans.
Reuters:
  • Tens of thousands rally to oust Tunisian government. Tens of thousands of Tunisians crowded the streets of downtown Tunis on Tuesday to demand the transitional government's ouster, in the largest opposition protest since the country's political crisis began two weeks ago. The secular opposition, angered by two assassinations in its ranks and emboldened by the army-backed toppling of Egypt's Islamist president, is trying to topple Tunisia's Islamist-led government and dissolve the Constituent Assembly.
  • Japan govt joining efforts to contain Fukushima toxic water. The Japanese government is joining efforts to contain a buildup of radioactive water at the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant, as operator Tokyo Electric Power Co struggles to contain the problem, government officials said on Wednesday. 
  • Obamacare months behind in testing IT data security -gov't. The federal government is months behind in testing data security for the main pillar of Obamacare: allowing Americans to buy health insurance on state exchanges due to open by Oct. 1. The missed deadlines have pushed the government's decision on whether information technology security is up to snuff to exactly one day before that crucial date, the Department of Health and Human Services' inspector general said in a report. As a result, experts say, the exchanges might open with security flaws or, possibly but less likely, be delayed.
  • First Solar(FSLR) cuts 2013 outlook, buys GE solar technology. First Solar Inc on Tuesday reported quarterly earnings and revenue well short of expectations and slashed its outlook for the year due to construction delays for a large project and a decision to sell two projects only after they are finished. The company's shares slid 9 percent in extended trade.
Financial Times:
  • Fear gauge shows complacency has taken hold. A strong rally in US stocks has pushed Wall Street’s most widely watched risk barometer close to multiyear lows in a sign investors are growing increasingly complacent as equity indices test fresh record highs. The CBOE Vix index, a gauge of the price traders are prepared to pay to protect against volatility in the US stock market, has dipped more than 40 per cent since late June and neared pre-financial crisis levels by the start of the week.
Telegraph:
  • 'Rate rises threaten crash in every asset'. The value of almost all investments, including shares, bonds and property, could fall if investors believe that interest rates are about to return to normal, a senior fund manager has warned
People's Daily:
  • China to Strictly Control Govt Spending Next Year. People's Daily reports, citing the Ministry of Finance on budgeting work for next year.
China Securities Journal:
  • China 2H Trade Growth May Continue to Slow. China's export and import growth may continue to slow in 2H as external environment for trade is "not optimistic," according to a report by State Information Center, which was published today.
Shanghai Securities News:
  • China's Urbanization Not Another 4t Yuan Stimulus. China's urbanization shouldn't be seen as a new 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan, citing Qiao Runling, deputy director of the China Center for Urban Development under National Development and Reform Commission. The core idea behind urbanization is reform, citing Qiao.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -1.50% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 144.0 +2.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 109.5 -.25 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.14%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.24%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.12%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (DVN)/.95
  • (STE)/.56
  • (WCG)/1.22
  • (TWX)/.76
  • (MMC)/.67
  • (DUK)/.93
  • (AOL)/.43
  • (RL)/1.94
  • (MDLZ)/.34
  • (GMCR)/.76
  • (MBI)/.14
  • (PRU)/1.99
  • (JACK)/.41
  • (CECO)/-.46
  • (JOE)/.02
  • (CXW)/.64
  • (TSLA)/-.19
  • (SCTY)/-.38
  • (SKYW)/.34 
Economic Releases
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,500,000 barrels versus a +431,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -500,000 barrels versus a +770,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated unch. versus a -466,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.3% versus a -1.0% decline the prior week.
3:00 pm EST
  • Consumer Credit for June is estimated to fall to $15.0B versus $19.615B in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Pianalto speaking, Fed's Plosser speaking, 10Y T-Note auction, BoE inflation report, weekly MBA mortgage applications report and the Bloomberg US Economic Survey for August could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Tuesday, August 06, 2013

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Rate Worries, Emerging Markets Concerns, Technical Selling, Homebuilder/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.65 +6.84%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.44 -.29%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.27 -.54%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.94 +4.51%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 123.0 +14.95%
  • Total Put/Call .75 -10.71%
  • NYSE Arms 1.13 +20.19% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.51 +2.37%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 136.59 +1.71%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 83.50 +.44%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 308.33 +2.51%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 17.5 -.25 bp
  • TED Spread 22.50 -.5 bp
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.25 +.5 bp
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% +1 bp
  • Yield Curve 233.0 -1 bp
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $131.40/Metric Tonne +.92%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.70 +17.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -27.80 +.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 +3 bps
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -201 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my retail/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -1.30%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -4.61% 2) Homebuilders -2.43% 3) Construction -2.40%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • XCO, HDB, REN, IBM, HES, SEAC, CTCM, EVC, PAMT, AEO, ALLT, JMBA, TREX, PDCE, TRW, EXH, NQ, CKP, ALSN, ALDW, ACM, TDW, RHP, EPM, LINTA, DTLK, USU, AMRI, INDY, ONTX, PRLB, SPR, WTW, ANF, YELP, KAR, AGCO, DBD, PH, PDCE, VSI, ALSN, UNM, THC, RHP, SHLD, SWHC, JCP, REGN, PRA, IPI, MDSO, TITN, ACTV and TREX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) NSM 2) AOL 3) UNG 4) JCP 5) GPS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CHS 2) DISH 3) WFC 4) MDR 5) JCP
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.75%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Drugs +.13% 2) REITs -.18% 3) Gaming -.29%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • FOSL, TAP, SGY, SPEX, STXS, VCRA, MKTG, VOLC, EXPD, MGM and AKRX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) GTAT 2) FOSL 3) FIO 4) MDR 5) HCA
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) T 2) VZ 3) MGM 4) TSN 5) TAP
Charts:

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • China’s Debt Surge Pressures Xi-Li to Avert Lost Decade. A Chinese lending spree of the magnitude that tipped Asian nations into crisis in the late 1990s and preceded Japan’s lost decades is putting pressure on top leaders to map out a strategy to tackle the threat. Half of the economists in a Bloomberg News survey say non-performing local-government and corporate debt will probably have a “significant impact” on China’s credit and economic growth. The central government will deal with bad loans at local governments in the next 18 months by expanding the municipal-bond market and letting localities refinance with direct bond sales, respondents said. Avoiding a fate akin to Japan’s growth collapse of the 1990s hinges on Chinese officials’ ability to reduce debt and shift policy, JPMorgan Chase & Co. says. President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang, developing a reform strategy due at a Communist Party meeting later this year, may get input from a State Council-ordered audit of government borrowings and a World Bank-assisted study on urbanization. “The debt ratio is absolutely dangerous, there is no question,” said Yao Wei, China economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong, ranked by Bloomberg as the most accurate forecaster of the nation’s gross domestic product. “There is a high risk that this debt issue will have significant downside pressure on Chinese growth in the next few years.” Local-government debt may have surged by as much as 50 percent since the end of 2010.
  • Fonterra Tainted Items Add to Woes of Consumers in China. Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd.’s warnings of tainted ingredients in some products of the world’s largest dairy exporter is the latest blow to baby formula sellers amid Chinese consumers’ concerns about food safety.
  • China’s Stocks Fall Most in Week as Property, Coal Shares Slump. China’s stocks fell for the first time in six days, led by property developers and coal producers, after the nation’s economic planning agency signaled the government would maintain property curbs and concern grew the slowing economy will reduce demand for energy.
  • Asian Stocks Drop on Concern Fed Will Reduce Stimulus. Asian stocks fell for a second day as stronger growth in U.S. service industries fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will soon be able to reduce economic stimulus. HSBC Holdings Plc (5) slumped 4.5 percent in Hong Kong after earnings at Europe’s biggest bank missed analysts’ estimates. Sony Corp. (6758) sank 5.5 percent in Tokyo after its board rejected billionaire Daniel Loeb’s call to sell a portion of its entertainment business, saying 100 percent ownership is crucial to the company’s success. Fonterra Shareholders Fund climbed 2.6 percent in New Zealand, recouping some of yesterday’s record decline after Russia and China halted imports of milk powder amid concern about tainted ingredients in some products from Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd., the world’s largest dairy exporter. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 0.7 percent to 134.33 as of 11:03 a.m. in Hong Kong, with four stocks falling for each that rose.
  • Rubber Futures Drop for Second Day as Stronger Yen Cuts Appeal. Rubber declined for a second day as a strengthening Japanese currency reduced the appeal of yen-based contracts and amid speculation the Federal Reserve will soon be able to cut stimulus. The contract for delivery in January dropped as much as 1 percent to 243.4 yen a kilogram ($2,484 a metric ton) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, before trading at 244.4 yen at 11:28 a.m. Futures have fallen 19 percent this year.
  • French Cross Rhine for Work to Escape 10% Unemployment. With unemployment in Alsace at about 10 percent and the jobless rate in the German state of Baden-Wuerttemberg where Kehl is located at about 4 percent, an increasing number of French people are crossing the border for work. Their commutes highlight how the euro region has one currency -- and 17 different labor markets.
  • Obama Assertion of Vanquished Al-Qaeda Undercut by Terror Threat. The latest attack threat from an al-Qaeda offshoot creates a political challenge for President Barack Obama, as Republicans accuse him of hyping claims to have terrorists on the run and privacy advocates say the warning may be used to justify greater government surveillance. While Obama’s critics applauded the administration’s decision to temporarily shut down 22 U.S. embassies and consulates in predominantly Muslim countries based on threats in intercepted communications, White House press secretary Jay Carney today was forced to defend the president’s past statements that al-Qaeda is “on the ropes.”
  • Tanker-Rate Slump Signals Retreat in U.S. Oil Imports: Freight. The biggest slump in tanker rates since January is signaling weaker U.S. oil imports and spurring analysts to predict a 15-year low for shares of Frontline Ltd. (FRO), whose ships haul almost enough crude to meet daily world demand. Rates for the biggest crude carriers tumbled 68 percent in the past two weeks, more than reversing their advance since the end of June, according to Clarkson Plc. Earnings had risen after oil cargoes to the U.S., the second-biggest source of demand for supertankers, expanded for three months. Shares of Hamilton, Bermuda-based Frontline will plunge 43 percent in a year, the average of 13 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg showed.
  • Coal at Risk as Global Lenders Drop Financing on Climate. The world’s richest nations, moving to combat global warming, are cutting government support for new coal-burning power plants in developing countries, dealing a blow to the world’s dominant source of electricity. First it was President Barack Obama pledging in June that the government would no longer finance overseas coal plants through the U.S. Export-Import Bank. Next it was the World Bank, then the European Investment Bank, dropping support for coal projects. Those banks have pumped more than $10 billion into such initiatives in the past five years.
  • IBM(IBM) Furloughs U.S. Hardware Employees to Reduce Costs. International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) said it’s requiring the majority of U.S. employees in its hardware division to take a week off with reduced pay, cutting costs as demand slows for products such as servers. U.S. hardware employees, including those involved in development and procurement, will take a furlough week with one-third pay starting either Aug. 24 or 31, said Jay Cadmus, a spokesman for the Systems and Technology Group. Executives in the division will take no pay during the week.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Bezos Buys Washington Post(WPO) for $250 Million. Amazon(AMZN) Chief's Deal Doesn't Involve Online Retailer but Shows Media Power Shift. Amazon.com Inc. Chief Executive Jeff Bezos is buying the Washington Post for $250 million in an out-of-the-blue deal that captures the newspaper industry's economic decline and the shift of power from old-media to Silicon Valley. 
  • FBI Finds Holes in System Protecting Economic Data. FBI finds 'operational vulnerabilities' involving 'black boxes' used to control the release of sensitive economic data. The Federal Bureau of Investigation has discovered vulnerabilities in the government's system for preventing market-moving economic reports from leaking to traders before public release. Law-enforcement officials found "a number of operational vulnerabilities" involving "black boxes" used by several departments to control the release of sensitive economic data such as the monthly unemployment rate, according to a report by the inspector general at the Commerce Department. The report said it was possible to subvert the system, which was designed to prevent media companies from sending economic data to traders early.
  • Private-Equity Payout Debt Surges. Private-equity firms are adding debt to companies they own to fund payouts to themselves at a record pace, as fears mount that the window for these deals will close if interest rates rise. So far this year, $47.4 billion of new loans and bonds have been sold by companies to pay dividends to the private-equity firms that own them, according to data provider S&P Capital IQ LCD. That is 62% more than the same period last year, which wound up being the biggest year on record, with $64.2 billion sold to fund private-equity payouts.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider: 
Reuters:
  • Output in emerging market economies contract in July- HSBC. Business activity across emerging economies contracted for the first time in over four years in July, driven mainly by a drop in manufacturing while services activity stagnated, a survey showed on Tuesday. It highlighted the growing divergence between activity in the developed world and emerging economies and cast doubt on prospects for a sustained global economic recovery from the financial crisis. The composite HSBC Emerging Markets index for services and manufacturing fell to 49.4 in July from 50.6 in June and below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. It was the first sub-50 reading since April 2009
  • American Eagle(AEO) not happy with quarter, shares sink. American Eagle Outfitters Inc, which makes clothes for teenagers and young adults, said on Monday its second-quarter profit will likely be less than half of what Wall Street was expecting, citing weak sales and lower margins, sending its shares down 15 percent. "We are not at all happy with our second quarter results," Chief Executive Robert Hanson said in a statement, adding that poor sales of women's items and weak traffic were largely to blame. American Eagle's shares fell to $16.95 in after-hours trading. They closed at $19.97 on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday.
Financial Times:
  • Regulation pushes banks on to a riskier path. Some bankers are said to be complacent about liquidity buffers. Can regulation make banks less safe? What has happened in the past week certainly seems to suggest so. Three large European banks – Barclays, Deutsche Bank and Société Générale – moved to partly dismantle one of their main bulwarks against another liquidity crisis: their massive cash reserves.
Telegraph:
Liquidity crunch a catalyst for big China slowdown – analysts The mini liquidity crunch is the early warning sign of a substantial economic correction long overdue, amid rising leverage and a broken growth model, say bearish analysts.


While we want you to share, we ask you use the functions on-site rather than copy/paste. See T's & C's for details. http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3222433/Liquidity-crunch-a-catalyst-for-big-China-slowdownanalysts.html?copyrightInfo=true
Evening Recommendations 
William Blair:
  • Cut (DE) to Underperform, target $75.
  • Cut (TITN) to Underperform, target $15.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 142.0 -1.0 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 109.75 -3.5 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.38%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.21%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (TAP)/1.39
  • (D)/.65
  • (PH)/1.96
  • (ZTS)/.36
  • (THC)/.71
  • (DBD)/.27
  • (CVS)/.96
  • (ICE)/2.14
  • (RDC)/.55
  • (ADM)/.44
  • (DNR)/.36
  • (MGM)/.01
  • (EMR)/.98
  • (SMG)/2.43
  • (REGN)/1.74
  • (FOSL)/.93
  • (LPX)/.34
  • (TDW)/.76
  • (CHRW)/.74
  • (DIS)/1.01
  • (CSC)/.67
  • (CAR)/.51
  • (FSLR)/.53
  • (Z)/-.11
  • (MRO)/.71
  • (CF)/7.61
  • (BID)/1.37
  • (WMS)/.31 
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Trade Deficit for June is estimated at -$43.5B versus -$45.0B in May.
10:00 am EST
  • The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for August is estimated to rise to 47.5 versus 47.1 in July. 
  • JOLTs Job Openings for June are estimated to rise to 3895 versus 3828 in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Evans speaking, RBA rate decision, 3Y T-Note auction, UK 10Y bond auction, weekly retail sales reports, Needham Software & Services Conference and the (VPRT) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Monday, August 05, 2013

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Long-Term Rates, Technical Selling, Global Growth Worries, Homebuilding/Transport Sector Weakness

Click Here for Today's Market Take.

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.96 -.17%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.87 -.84%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.30 -2.92%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.05 -1.58%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 -29.10%
  • Total Put/Call .87 -1.14%
  • NYSE Arms .79 -20.27% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.74 +.01%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 134.29 -.52%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 83.13 -.54%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 300.96 +1.70%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 17.75 +.75 bp
  • TED Spread 23.0 -.5 bp
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.75 +.25 bp
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
  • Yield Curve 234.0 +4 bps
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $130.20/Metric Tonne +.08%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.80 +7.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -28.10 -2.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 +3 bps
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +39 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +4 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long