Bloomberg:
- Brent Crude Traders Claim Proof BFOE Boys Rigged Market. Four
longtime traders in the global oil market claim in a lawsuit
that the prices for buying and selling crude are fixed -- and that they
can prove it. Some of the world’s biggest oil companies including BP Plc
(BP/), Statoil ASA (STL), and Royal Dutch Shell Plc conspired with
Morgan Stanley and energy
traders including Vitol Group to manipulate the closely watched spot
prices for Brent crude oil for more than a decade, they allege. The
North Sea benchmark is used to price more than half the world’s crude
and helps determine where costs are headed for fuels including gasoline
and heating oil.
- European Stocks Advance as Alstom, ING Rise on Earnings.
European stocks climbed to a five-year high after companies from Alstom
SA to ING Groep NV posted earnings that beat analysts’ estimates, and
as industrial data from Germany and the U.K. improved. Alstom gained the
most in 16 months after posting operating profit that exceeded
estimates and saying it will seek to raise as much as 2 billion euros
($2.7 billion) from asset sales. ING jumped 3.5 percent after net income
beat projections. Adecco SA (ADEN) rose 3.6 percent after the world’s
largest provider of temporary workers predicted that demand for flexible
labor will increase in Europe as the economy recovers. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.4 percent to 323.26 at
the close of trading, its highest level since May 22, 2008.
- Yellen Met With Blankfein, Dimon as Prospects as Fed Chief Rose. As
speculation grew that Federal
Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen would be nominated to lead the
central bank, her appointment book beginning in April became peppered
with meetings with the titans of finance. Yellen’s calendars from
February through July, obtained by Bloomberg News through a Freedom of
Information Act request, show 30-minute meetings or phone calls with
chief executive officers from some of the biggest banks. These included
John Stumpf of Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) on April 3, Jamie Dimon of
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) on April 10, James Gorman of Morgan
Stanley on April 15 and Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on
June 7.
Fox News:
- Virginia squeaker sends shivers through Dems. Vulnerable Democrats must have watched in dismay as Democrat Terry McAuliffe barely
clung to victory on Tuesday. Having spent three times more money than
his rival and with the backing of his popular patrons, Bill and Hillary Clinton,
McAulliffe was breezing to victory just three weeks ago. But his
once-stout lead in the polls over Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli
nearly vanished as voter outrage over the crash landing of ObamaCare
nearly wrecked the race. A double-digit lead turned into a
three-point
scrape. Exit polls showed intense opposition to ObamaCare that helped
Cuccinelli, who was written off by the national GOP and who had to lug
along the
scandal-plagued administration of Republican incumbent Gov. Bob McDonnell.
CNBC:
- Stand by…a hefty drop's on the way: Nomura's Janjuah. Global stock markets are set to peak in the next few months but hungry
investors should beware, according to Bob Janjuah, Nomura's uber-bearish
strategist, who believes a hefty dip in global stock markets is just
around the corner.
Zero Hedge:
ValueWalk:
Business Insider:
MNI:
- US MBA Text: Refis -8.0%; Mkt Composite -7.0% Nov 1 Week. Mortgage applications decreased 7.0
percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers
Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending
November 1, 2013. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume,
decreased 7.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On
an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8 percent compared with the previous
week. The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week. The
seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier and
is at its lowest level since the end of December 2012. The unadjusted Purchase
Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was unchanged from
the same week one year ago.
Washington Post:
- The Sin of Omission in Obamacare. Among the many rules I grew up with, two stand out. The first was to
never call someone a liar, which was considered the worst character
indictment one could issue. The accuser had best be prepared to fight or
be fleet of foot. The other was a dictum so oft- repeated that it is permanently
tattooed on my brain: “If you’ll lie by omission, you’ll lie by
commission.”
Newsmax:
- Reuters Poll: 56% of Uninsured Oppose Obamacare. The uninsured view the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act,
commonly known as Obamacare, more favorably since online marketplaces
opened - 44 percent compared with 37 percent in September, according to
the Reuters/Ipsos poll. It found that 56 percent oppose the program
compared with 63 percent in September.
Reuters:
- Brazil mobile market shrinks, first time in 5 yrs. Brazil's mobile phone market saw a net decline in
subscribers in September, shrinking 0.06 percent to 268.3
million active phone lines, according to phone regulator Anatel.
It was the first monthly drop since June 2006.
The numbers highlighted a shift in Brazil's cooling wireless
market from a race for market share to a push for profitability
as sales stagnate.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Biotech -2.30% 2) Coal -1.94% 3) Alt Energy -1.73%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- TSLA, TRNX, IRG, ITMN, VRSK, PHMD, LAYN, MELI, ANF, MCEP, NPSP, BBRG, TNGO, QUAD, JCOM, QEP, HCLP, KND, CLH, YRCW, HURN, CTRP, YY, AEIS, Z, IIVI, URS, ZLTQ, GPOR, CLMT, HFC, QEP, CLH, DVN, AMRI, FOSL, LYV, INCY, TRLA, AEGR, BAH, PXD, LGND, STRZA, TNGO, REXX and JCOM
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) HMA 2) CHRW 3) IGT 4) FOSL 5) FDX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) VIP 2) PCYC 3) FSLR 4) MELI 5) RRGB
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Software +1.19% 2) Gold & Silver +1.19% 3) Utilities +.74%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- ECOM, IMPV, OXBT, BCOR, BEAT, OPEN, TRAK, ECYT, REGI, SUNE, ESV, RL, KERX, PNK, EBAY, WWWW, RMTI, VOYA and LBTYA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) CVC 2) CONN 3) SUNE 4) KERX 5)VRNG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) F 2) ANF 3) RL 4) CSCO 5) OPEN
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Bubble Trouble Seen Brewing in Australia Home Prices. Gigi Wong beat four other bidders in an auction of a
three-bedroom Sydney house with peeling wallpaper, cracked doors and an
overgrown backyard by paying A$856,000 ($811,060), 14 percent more than
the realtor expected the property to fetch. “I’m not sure if I
paid too much,” said Wong, an accountant at the University of Sydney,
after winning the bidding war for the investment property in an
inner-west suburb where prices have tripled in the past 15 years. “Since
I can, and have capacity to borrow money, I should utilize it.”
- Indonesia GDP Grows Less Than 6%.
Indonesia’s economy expanded less than 6 percent last quarter as higher
interest rates weighed on consumption and exports fell. Gross domestic
product increased 5.62 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30 from a
year earlier, the Central Bureau of Statistics said in Jakarta today.
That compares with a previously reported 5.81 percent pace for the
second quarter and the median estimate of 5.6 percent in a Bloomberg
News survey of 23 economists. The third-quarter data highlights the
vulnerability of Southeast Asia’s largest economy as it weathers a
depreciated exchange rate, faster inflation and diminished foreign
capital inflows ahead of elections in 2014. Bank Indonesia has raised
its benchmark rate by 1.5 percentage points since early June to
shore up the rupiah and stem price gains, while the government
has acknowledged growth next year will be slower as it reins in
spending to narrow a record current-account gap.
- Asian Stocks Gain, Snap Four-Day Decline, as Yen Weakens.
Asian stocks rose, snapping a four-day drop on the regional equities
benchmark, as Japanese shares were boosted by the yen weakening against
the dollar and Commonwealth Bank of Australia posted a surge in profit.
Canon Inc. gained 1 percent as the yen dropped, boosting the outlook for
earnings at Japanese exporters. Commonwealth, Australia’s largest
lender by market value, climbed 1.2 percent to a record after saying
first-quarter cash profit jumped 14 percent on lower bad-debt charges.
HTC Corp. climbed 2.9 percent after analysts said the smartphone maker’s
fourth-quarter forecast was better than estimated. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3 percent to 141.39 as of 12:29 p.m. in Hong Kong as nine of the 10 industry groups on
the measure advanced.
- Rebar Futures Fall for Second Day as Construction in China Slows.
Steel reinforcement-bar futures in China fell for a second day on
concern that construction will slow in winter, crimping demand. Rebar for May delivery, the most-active contract by volume
on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, fell as much as 0.9 percent to
3,636 yuan ($596) a metric ton, and traded 3,649 yuan a ton at
11:30 a.m. local time.
- Rubber Swings Near One-Month Low on Oil Rebound, Yen Strength. Rubber swung between gains and
losses, trading near a one-month low, as a rebound in crude oil
prices weighed against concern that the Federal Reserve will reduce stimulus earlier than anticipated. The
contract for delivery in April on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange was
little changed at 255.8 yen a kilogram ($2,591 a metric ton) at 12:08
p.m. after gaining 0.3 percent and dropping
0.7 percent. Futures settled at 255.7 yen yesterday, the lowest
close for a most-active contract since Oct. 4.
- Brazil Real Tumbles on Concern Government Lax on Budget Deficits. Brazil’s real fell the most among emerging-market currencies and swap rates surged on concern the
government isn’t doing enough to control budget deficits and
avoid a credit rating cut. The real dropped 1.9 percent to 2.2890 per U.S. dollar,
deepening its one-month selloff to 3.4 percent, the worst among
16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Swap rates on
contracts maturing in January 2016 climbed 15 basis points, or
0.15 percentage point, to a two-year high of 11.54 percent on
concern that widening budget shortfalls will lead to an increase
in borrowing costs.
- Obama’s 39% Gallup Rating Lowest Amid Health Care Fallout.
President Barack Obama’s rating in the daily Gallup poll has fallen to
its lowest level since October 2011 as his administration continues to
be tarnished by
the rocky debut of his health-care program. The Democrat’s approval
rating stands at 39 percent in the
survey, down since the start of October when the rollout of
online health exchanges began.
- Two Senate Democrats Push for Delay to Obamacare Penalties. Two Democratic senators from states
that lean Republican are rallying support for proposals that
would delay penalties or let people keep existing health plans
after flaws hobbled the federal online exchanges. Senate Democratic leaders aren’t saying whether they will
allow votes on the proposals by Mary Landrieu of Louisiana on
existing policies or Joe Manchin of West Virginia to delay fines
for a year. The efforts underscore Democrats’ anxiety over the
failures of the online exchanges
- Wells Fargo(WFC) Said to Face U.S. Mortgage-Bond Probe. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) is among firms facing federal scrutiny of mortgage-bond sales under a 1989 law
the government is using to extend probes of banks’ roles in the
credit crisis, two people with knowledge of the matter said.
- NYSE’s Next Owner Says Small U.S. Investors Get Ripped Off.
The head of IntercontinentalExchange Inc. (ICE), which is about to own
the New York Stock Exchange, said U.S. equity markets are flawed because
sophisticated traders are taking advantage of
small investors. A decade of regulatory and technological
changes have fragmented trading across more than 50 markets and given
rise to firms that use computerized algorithms to execute transactions
in less than a thousandth of a second, far faster than humans. Also,
almost 40 percent of volume takes place on private platforms, data
compiled by Bloomberg show. That means investors saving money to send their kids to college or to
buy a home can be taken advantage of by traders who possess more
information, ICE Chief Executive Officer Jeff Sprecher told analysts
today during a conference call. Sophisticated firms are
incentivized to “take advantage of the people that are the weakest on
the day they have to trade, and I think that that is fundamentally
wrong,” Sprecher said. “Increasingly, when I go talk to friends and when
I listen to people that are not involved specifically in what we do,
there is a sense that things aren’t fair.”
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
- McAuliffe narrowly defeats Cuccinelli in Virginia, ObamaCare troubles loom over vote. Democrat Terry McAuliffe won the Virginia governor’s race on Tuesday,
in a surprisingly close victory over Republican rival Ken Cuccinelli --
who was heavily outspent and trailed in the polls for much of the race. With nearly all precincts reporting, McAuliffe was ahead with just 48
percent of the vote, to Cuccinelli’s 46 percent. Though McAuliffe
previously held a double-digit lead, exit polls showed voters opposed to
the federal health care law overwhelmingly backed Cuccinelli, helping
him narrow the gap on Tuesday. "Despite being outspent by an unprecedented $15 million, this race
came down to the wire because of ObamaCare," Cuccinelli said in his
concession speech. "That message will go out to the entire country
tonight."
- ObamaCare price hikes hit 'red states' hardest. Experiencing sticker-shock at the price of insurance on ObamaCare exchanges? That's more likely if you live in a "red state" that didn't vote for
Obama, according to price data compiled by the Heritage Foundation. In
red states, premiums for 27-year-olds rose an average of 78% on
ObamaCare exchanges, whereas in "blue states" that voted for Obama,
premiums rose a smaller 50%.
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
NY Times:
- After SAC Plea, Fellow Funds May Pay.
In striking its $1.2 billion settlement with SAC Capital Advisors, the
government set a record for insider trading penalties. For the hedge
fund industry, the hidden costs of the deal are even bigger. Tougher
regulatory scrutiny since the financial crisis and changes in the law
have forced hedge funds to spend millions of dollars a year on new
compliance measures to make sure that they are not ensnared in the same
net as SAC. This has added to the cost of doing business, which can cut
into returns. “It is getting much more expensive for hedge funds,”
said Thomas A. Sporkin, a partner at Buckley Sandler and a former
enforcement lawyer at the Securities and Exchange Commission. “What kind
of returns are you going to need to make in this business given the
compliance and regulatory burdens?”
Reuters:
Telegraph:
Yonhap News:
- PACOM chief says N. Korea's ICBM threat is serious. A top U.S. military commander voiced concerns Tuesday over North Korea's long-range missile program, calling it a serious issue. Adm. Samuel Locklear, the commander of the U.S. Pacific Command,
pointed out the reclusive communist nation wants the U.S. to believe it
has the capability of sending missiles to the mainland U.S.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 138.0 +1.0 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 109.25 +1.5 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.43%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- The Leading Index for September is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.7% gain in August.
10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg
consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of
+1,686,000 barrels versus a +4,087,000 barrel gain the prior week.
Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -27,000 barrels versus a
-1,713,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are
estimated to fall by -1,241,000 barrels versus a -3,058,000 barrel
decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to
fall by -.1% versus a +1.4% gain the prior week.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Pianalto speaking, Eurozone Services PMI, Germany Factory Orders,
Australia Unemployment, Challenger Job Cuts for Oct., weekly MBA
mortgage applications report, Raymond James Airline/Transport
Conference, (MON) Investor Event, (ANF) analyst meeting and the (HAL)
Analyst Day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by automaker and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 13.22 +2.32%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.47 -.33%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.90 +4.34%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.29 +2.43%
- ISE Sentiment Index 143.0 +27.7%
- Total Put/Call .77 +2.67%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.40 +1.57%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 114.32 -.03%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 67.0 -1.47%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 284.36 +3.45%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 +.25 basis point
- TED Spread 19.25 -1 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +1 basis point
- Yield Curve 236.0 +6 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $136.80/Metric Tonne +.74%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 0.0 +3.8 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.40 +.1 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 unch.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -26 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Hospitals -4.30% 2) Homebuilders -2.60% 3) Disk Drives -2.16%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- BSFT, PPO, HTZ, LAYN, EPD, EXLS, IMGN, GIMO, BGC, BDE, ASH, CSU, SNCR, THC, EXR, PSB, MR, GVA, RKT, VOLC, LMNX, RRTS, TGH, EDMC, FARO, OMI, CAR, WPC, THO, SZYM, CF, CHTR, FAST, LINE, LNCO, WPC, THO, CHTR, LNCO, APL, CRK, LPX, EXPD, RKT, SGY, CSU and GTIV
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) HTZ 2) IGT 3) RL 4) SMH 5) KSS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) THC 2) T 3) MA 4) EBIX 5) BSFT
Charts:
