Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.19%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +.97% 2) Computer Services +.95% 3) Gaming +.91%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VPHM, GOGO, GRFS, EZPW, ABFS, AEGR, DDD, JASO, FUEL, GTAT and SSYS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VPHM 2) ANR 3) AEGR 4) FE 5) ABFS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) RIG 2) AMTD 3) CCL 4) BA 5) IBM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Iranian Nuclear Accord Prospects Clouded as French Object. Envoys from Iran and world powers may not agree to an accord today that would ease the decade-long dispute over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, an Iranian official said. Participants are likely to issue a joint statement and meet again in 14 days, said the Iranian official, who asked not to be named because of the talks’ sensitivity. At the same time, talks continued behind closed doors in Geneva, with little information emerging to help separate posturing and negotiating tactics from high-stakes bargaining among top diplomats from the seven countries involved, including U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. 

• Hong Kong Luxury Property Prices Choked by Tightening. Hong Kong businessman Raymond Chiu says he has perfect credit and is prepared to spend about HK$16 million ($2 million) on a 1,000-square-foot apartment in the city’s Mid-Levels residential area. There’s just one catch. The government requires a 50 percent down payment. That’s “really putting us off,” said Chiu, 45, who owns an information technology consulting company. “I run a business so cash flow is important. It’s frustrating because this is non-negotiable, though I have perfect credit history.”

• Euro Recovery Seen Fizzling as Growth Crawl Supports Draghi Cut. Euro-area growth data this week may show the region’s nascent recovery slowing to a crawl, supporting Mario Draghi’s case for an interest-rate cut to help the economy get back to its feet. Gross domestic product in the region rose just 0.1 percent in the third quarter, according to the median forecast of 41 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. In the 3 1/2 hours before that report on Nov. 14, economists predict a series of data releases to show growth slowing in Germany and stalling in France, with Italy remaining mired in an unprecedented slump. 

• Chinese Developers Decline on Tightening Fears. Chinese developer shares fell the most in two weeks amid concerns that Beijing and Shanghai will implement new measures to curb demand and rising property prices, prompting other cities to follow suit. An index tracking property companies listed in Shanghai fell as much as 3.1 percent and was 2.5 percent lower at the 11:30 a.m. local-time break, heading for its biggest decline since Oct. 25. China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.2 percent.

• Asian Stocks Outside Japan Fall Before China Plenum Ends. Asian stocks outside Japan fell as investors await the conclusion tomorrow of a meeting of China’s leaders on economic reform. Japanese equities rose after better-than-expected U.S. payrolls data weakened the yen. Robinsons Retail Holdings Inc., an operator of supermarkets and department stores controlled by billionaire John Gokongwei, slumped 5.4 percent on its trading debut following the largest Philippine initial public offering. Nexon Co., a maker of online games, plunged 22 percent in Tokyo after its net-income forecast missed estimates. Honda Motor Co., a Japanese carmaker that gets 47 percent of its revenue in North America, added 1.7 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index lost 0.5 percent to 467.63 as of 12:56 p.m. in Hong Kong.

• Rebar Falls Amid Concern That Property Curbs May Reduce Demand. Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai fell amid concern that the Chinese government is strengthening measures to rein in the property market, reducing demand for the building material. Rebar for May delivery, the most-active contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, fell as much as 0.8 percent to 3,633 yuan ($596) a metric ton, before trading at 3,643 yuan at 10:07 a.m. local time. Futures declined 0.3 percent last week.

• Gold Vault Opens in China as Bullion Goes From West to East. A gold vault that can store 2,000 metric tons, double China’s projected consumption this year, opened in Shanghai this month as owner Malca-Amit Global Ltd. seeks to benefit from rising demand in Asia’s largest economy.

• Facebook(FB) Director Andreessen’s Firm Sells Third of Shares. Facebook Inc. (FB) Director Marc Andreessen’s venture-capital firm sold a third of its holdings in the world’s biggest social-networking service after the stock price reached a record last month. Andreessen Horowitz sold 2.28 million shares on Nov. 6, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission yesterday. The shares were sold at about $49 to $50 apiece, making the divestment worth more than $111 million, the data show. The firm still holds 4.57 million shares. 

• BofA(BAC) Should Pay $863 Million in Fannie Mae Case: U.S. Bank of America Corp. should pay the maximum penalty of $863 million for selling defective loans to Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC), given the egregiousness of the fraud, U.S. prosecutors told a federal judge. Bank of America’s Countrywide unit was found liable by a jury in Manhattan federal court last month for selling the government-sponsored entities thousands of defective loans in the first mortgage-fraud case brought by the U.S. to go to trial.

Wall Street Journal:

• Big Banks May Block Traders From Chat Rooms. Big banks are considering blocking employees from computer chat rooms that have become pervasive tools of the modern trading floor, but which face mounting scrutiny from regulators as potential venues for collusion and market manipulation. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Credit Suisse Group AG are discussing internally whether to disable computerized chat rooms that electronically link traders across multiple banks and are used by tens of thousands of employees globally, according to people familiar with the discussions. 

• Stocks Regain Broad Appeal. Individual Investors Are Returning to Stocks, Which Could be Bad. Five years after the financial crisis, individual investors are piling into stocks again amid signs that the U.S. economy is slowly gaining steam. The buyers, many with investment portfolios that were scorched during the market meltdown, are climbing aboard a ride to new highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. But the renewed optimism among retail investors is considered by many professionals to be a warning sign, thanks to a long history of Main Street arriving late to market rallies.

• Health-Law Rollout Weighs on Obama's Ratings, Agenda. Approval, Personal Favorability Polling Sags, Creating New Complications for Second Term.

• 'Long-Only' Funds Lose Their Hedge'Long-Only' Funds Lose Their Hedge. What do you call a hedge fund that doesn't hedge? The latest growth area for the industry. On the heels of a multiyear market rally, a slew of hedge-fund firms are launching "long-only" funds betting that at least some stocks have further to climb. The moves come amid a brutal stretch for short bets against companies, traditionally a key strategy for hedge funds. The new funds also represent a shift by hedge-fund managers—known for their sophisticated tactics and exclusivity—into the kind of old-fashioned stock picking more associated with Main Street mutual funds.

• Vive La France on Iran. The French save the West from a very bad nuclear deal with Iran. We never thought we'd say this, but thank heaven for French foreign-policy exceptionalism. At least for the time being, François Hollande's Socialist government has saved the West from a deal that would all but guarantee that Iran becomes a nuclear power.

• Healthcare.junk. Scam artists are filling the vacuum left by the Obama website failure. So the national embarrassment known as Healthcare.gov and the 36 federal ObamaCare exchanges won't be fixed by the end of November after all, notwithstanding a month of assurances from the White House.

Fox News:

• Senate suggests even tougher sanctions on Iran until final deal reached on nuclear freeze. Senate leaders showed bipartisan support Sunday for tougher sanctions on Iran following failed talks this weekend toward curtailing that country’s nuclear-development program, but also indicated they would likely wait until after talking to Secretary of State John Kerry. Kerry and other Western leaders wrapped up talks Sunday after failing to agree on a deal, which purportedly stalled when France rejected a list of demands on Iran because they were too generous to mean an easing of international sanctions.

CNBC: 

• Foreign buyers are getting in on US energy boom. Foreign investors are emerging as the biggest beneficiaries of the unfolding U.S. energy revolution—underscoring how the landscape is being dominated by small, nimble players profiting where oil majors seemingly cannot. 

• Scenes from Philippines' super storm. (pics)

Zero Hedge:

• Bill Fleckenstein Blasts "The Price Of Everything Is Out Of Whack".

• 5(+1) Things To Ponder This Weekend.

• No Car, No FICO Score, No Problem: The NINJAs Have Taken Over The Subprime Lunatic Asylum.

• Citi(C) Expects "A Significant Fall In EURUSD" As Currency Wars Escalate.

• Obamacare's Biggest Failure So Far: Just 18% Of Uninsured Have Expressed An Interest In Enrolling.

• The Anatomy Of A Pre-Crash Bubble. (graph)

• Supertyphoon Haiyan Leaves Over 1,200 Dead: The "Massive Destruction" In Photos And Videos.

• Big Institutions Bet "All In" On Small Caps. (graph)

• Michael Pettis Cautions Abe (And Krugman): "Debt Matters".

• "Euphoria". (graph)

• US Airspace To Crawl With 7,500 Drones In 5 Years. 

• Typhoon Death Count Surpasses 10,000; People "Walk Like Zombies Looking For Food; Martial Law Imminent.

• The Subprime Final Solution.

• There's A Liquidity Crunch Developing.

• Ray Dalio's Bridgewater On The Fed's Dilemma: "We're Worried That There's No Gas Left In The QE Tank".

Business Insider:

• Be Prepared For Stocks To Crash 40%-55%.

• The 15 Most Expensive Housing Markets In America.

• A Few Bizarre Anecdotes That Show Venezuela Is At The Edge Of A Dangerous Precipice.

• 8 Tax Breaks Expiring At The End Of This Year.

• The Surprise ECB Rate Cut Raises More Questions Than Answers.

• Teens Are Deserting Facebook(FB), And They're Heading To Places Where Their Parents Can't Find Them.

• 12 Questions Senators Should Ask Janet Yellen At Her Thursday Confirmation Hearing For Fed Chair.

Wall Street All-Stars:

• Indicator Update: Does sitting on the sideline have upside risk?

New York Times:

• New China Cities: Shoddy Homes, Broken Hope. Three years ago, the Shanghai World Expo featured this newly built town as a model for how China would move from being a land of farms to a land of cities. In a dazzling pavilion visited by more than a million people, visitors learned how farmers were being given a new life through a fair-and-square deal that did not cost them anything.

Reuters: 

• China inflation hits 8-month high amid tightening fear. China's annual inflation climbed to an eight-month high of 3.2 percent in October as food costs soared, fanning market worries about policy tightening as factory output and investment data pointed to signs of stabilisation in the economy. Inflation, which quickened slightly from 3.1 percent in September, was still lower than a median forecast of 3.3 percent in a Reuters poll and was below the official target of 3.5 percent for 2013.

• U.S. senator to block Obama's nominations over Benghazi. U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham on Sunday said he will try to block White House nominations for key jobs until he gets more information on last year's attack on the U.S. mission in Benghazi, even after a TV network pulled back from a story on the attack that Graham had cited. Graham has threatened to block President Barack Obama's nominations of Janet Yellen to head the Federal Reserve and Jeh Johnson to head the Department of Homeland Security until the administration provides more information on how the attack occurred.

Financial Times:

• ECB split stokes German backlash fears. Divisions at the heart of the European Central Bank over last week’s rate cut have revived fears in Frankfurt of a German popular backlash against the bank’s policy making, even as the ECB faces decisions critical to the eurozone’s future. People involved in the policy debates said divisions between northern and southern representatives on the ECB board have been mounting since market pressures on the eurozone relaxed, with council members freed up to revert to national interests.

Telegraph: 

• Reports of the survival of the eurozone may have been greatly exaggerated. Last week’s surprise interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) was largely a response to the looming danger of deflation in the eurozone.

Bild:

• ECB President Draghi Abuses Euro-System, Ifo's Sinn Says. Mario Draghi "abusing" euro-system to give southern European countries cheap loans they wouldn't otherwise get on capital markets, Hans-Werner Sinn, head of German economic institute Ifo tells Bild in an interview.

CNA:

• TSMC's Chang Says Inventories May Take Longer to Digest. TSMC Chairman and CEO Morris Chang says it will take longer than previously expected for inventories in the industry's supply chain to adjust to more normal levels.

Xinhua:

• China Auto Industry Capacity 'Far Exceeds' Demand. Overcapacity indicates outlook for local market won't be "optimistic" in the next few years, citing He Liming, head of China Automobile Dealers Association. As new production capacity is commissioned, price wars will become more likely.

China Daily:

• China Must Deepen Reform to Sustain Growth. Third Plenum of China's Communist Party is "sounding the horn to comprehensively deepen reform" as the country seeks to sustain growth, the party's mouthpiece, says in a commentary. China needs a new engine of growth and reduce its reliance on "crude investment," the commentary said. China's government needs to separate interests and power and use the market to spur economic vitality, it said. Ruling party needs to find a way for "self-purification" and improve its management of the country, the commentary said.

China Securities Journal:

• China Should Aim to Start Property Tax Nationwide in 2015. China should aim to start a tax on individuals' property nationwide in 2015, citing a report from the government think tank China Center for International Economic Exchanges. The nation may revise a tax on coal and other resources in 2015 to levy based on prices, instead of volume as done currently, the report said.

Weekend Recommendations

Barron's:

• Bullish commentary on (GLF), (LLL), (HBI), (XRX), (DVN), (AEO) and (IP).

• Bearish commentary on (DDD), (SSYS), (XONE) and (VJET).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.25 -1.75 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 111.0 +3.75 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures +.41%.

• S&P 500 futures -.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (WLH)/.30

• (BID)/-.47

• (RAX)/.16

• (NWSA)/.02

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japanese 30Y Bond Auction, CSFB Healthcare Conference, (CG) investor day and the (NCR) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising long-term rates/energy prices, profit-taking, technical selling, increasing eurozone/emerging markets debt angst, more shorting and earnings concerns. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,770.61 +.51%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,770.61 +.51%

• DJIA 15,761.70 +.94%

• NASDAQ 3,919.23 -.o7%

• Russell 2000 1,099.97 +.39%

• S&P 500 High Beta 28.68 +.14%

• Wilshire 5000 18,544.30 +.35%

• Russell 1000 Growth 821.16 -.03%

• Russell 1000 Value 893.10 +.70%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 438.69 +.35%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,388.08 +.25%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 847.93 +.32%

• Transports 7,017.34 -.43%

• Utilities 502.46 -.43%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 105.2 -.76%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.39 -2.97%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,139.86 -.01%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 947.74 +.64%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 193,038 -.95%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 108 -92

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 20.0 -17.15%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 299,514 -.89%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,736,874 -2.11%

• Total Put/Call .83 -9.78%

• OEX Put/Call 1.34 +35.35%

• ISE Sentiment 102.0 -8.93%

• NYSE Arms .48 -28.35%

• Volatility(VIX) 12.90 -2.86%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.53 -1.89%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.10 +.25%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.41 +9.53%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,684.07 -.84%

• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.672 Trillion +.15%

• AAII % Bulls 45.5 +1.1%

• AAII % Bears 21.8 +1.5%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 274.39 -.21%

• Crude Oil 94.60 -.01%

• Reformulated Gasoline 255.34 +.24%

• Natural Gas 3.56 +1.31%

• Heating Oil 287.16 -.36%

• Gold 1,284.60 -2.35%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 189.50 -2.30%

• Copper 325.40 -1.35%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 335.67 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 135.90 USD/Ton +.44%

• Lumber 374.70 +1.30%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,390.66 +.12%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.80% +10 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1075 unch.

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 119.32 +.12%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.40 +14.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.60 -3.80 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 36.0% chance of no change, 64.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 12/18

• US Dollar Index 81.30 +.72%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.10 -.48%

• Yield Curve 244.0 +13 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.75% +13 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.808 Trillion +.22%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 30.83 +2.06%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 197.0 +4.0%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 66.48 -3.43%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 110.96 +3.52%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 236.0 +1.17%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 110.0 -1.79%

• Egypt Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 683.53 -1.55%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 366.0 +2 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18% +4 basis points

• TED Spread 19.0 -1.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +1.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 72.95 -1.93%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 106.25 -8.88%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 299.97 +8.03%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 109.0 -1.0 basis point

• M1 Money Supply $2.654 Trillion -1.08%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,070.30 -1.0%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 348,300 -8,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.2% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.16% +6 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 449.60 -7.05%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -37.90 -.3 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.40% +20 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.21/gallon -.06/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,593 +5.92%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,013.52 +.19%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 35.0 +7.69%

• Rail Freight Carloads 264,264 +1.16%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +.7%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth -.4%

Leading Sectors

• Software +3.3%

• Networking +2.7%

• Banks +2.5%

• I-Banks +2.3%

• Defense +2.0%

Lagging Sectors

• Papers -2.3% 

• Disk Drives -3.1%

• Hospitals -4.2%

• Homebuilders -4.2%

• REITs -4.3%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (35)

• ENDP, PMC, BEAT, BCOR, GHDX, AEIS, GTI, DWRE, ININ, AOL, KOP, AWAY, OPEN, CLDT, FNP, IMPV, ANEN, ABMD, ACIW, SQI, ESC, VCLK, SYKE, EXH, VSI, DATA, IPGP, TPH, JOE, RRGB, EFSC, VMC, PBH, RHP and MRC

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (48)

• LPX, PHH, HPT, POWR, HTZ, IGT, EPAY, ANF, CHTR, CNQR, THO, WFM, WAC, VRSK, GVA, FURX, HNT, PIKE, ABCO, CSU, THC, GSVC, MYRG, FF, ITMN, WRLD, FWM, BPI, AGIO, BGC, SWM, LXU, IMGN, BDE, CKP, TTPH, PPO, LAYN, JCOM, RST, IRG, CARB, NXTM, FSYS, BSFT, FUEL, NSM and QUAD

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Better US Economic Data, Short-Covering, Investor Performance Angst, Financial/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.23 -4.89%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.10 +.59%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.40 -.11%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.73 -5.31%

• ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 -3.74%

• Total Put/Call .84 -7.69%

• NYSE Arms .60 -60.26% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.99 -2.56%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 106.25 -3.52%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 66.48 +.67%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 300.04 +4.31%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 unch.

• TED Spread 18.5 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +1.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% unch.

• Yield Curve 243.0 +11 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $135.90/Metric Tonne -.73%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.40 +6.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.60 unch.

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +189 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/biotech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long