Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Hospitals -1.94% 2) Construction -1.80% 3) Gaming -1.80%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- VJET, DDD, TLLP, ICLD, MEMP, BBY, AMRI, CPB, PER, SGMS, NOAH, CRM, ALTR, JEC, ECOM, PBT, SFM, ANFI, TM, VIPS, ATHN, NEE, HOS, CYH, HCLP, IEP, ALGN, MEMP, SSYS, TRN, BWP, FWM, DWRE and ELLI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) BBY 2) CRM 3) XLNX 4) TWTR 5) KMB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) TSLA 2) CPB 3) F 4) JEC 5) COST
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Airlines +.64% 2) Medical +.29% 3) Biotech +.26%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- SPEX, CWH, TTS, QIWI, UAL and TSLA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) BBY 2) ADT 3) CRM 4) CPB 5) DRI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) TJX 2) HD 3) NOC 4) AAPL 5) AMZN
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Credit-Driven China Glut Threatens Surge Into Bank Crisis. A $6.6
trillion credit binge during the past five years, encouraged by Beijing
policy makers as stimulus to combat a global economic slowdown, now
threatens to stoke a debt crisis. At stake are trillions of yuan in bank
loans that companies
producing everything from ships to steel to solar power are struggling
to repay as the world’s second-largest economy heads for the weakest
annual expansion since 1999.
- Onions Bring Tears to RBI’s Rajan as Prices Surge: India Credit.
Record onion prices and the soaring cost of rice and coriander are
frustrating Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan’s battle to
curb inflation while supporting growth in Asia’s third-largest economy. The
wholesale-price index for onions, a staple food for India’s 1.24
billion people, has climbed 155 percent this year, hitting an all-time
high of 820.5 in September, according to the Ministry of Commerce and
Industry. The index, set at 100 in 2004, has almost quadrupled in 12
months. A broader measure for food is up 19 percent in 2013, while spot
prices for coriander climbed about 29 percent and basmati rice advanced
40 percent.
- Asia Stocks Outside Japan Rise as Hong Kong Extends Rally.
Asian stocks outside Japan rose, with a regional benchmark index
heading for a four-day rally, as Hong Kong stocks extended yesterday’s
gains amid optimism China’s economic reforms will boost growth. China
Life Insurance Co., the nation’s biggest insurer, rose 5.2 percent in
Hong Kong after Citigroup Inc. named the company as one of the
beneficiaries of Communist Party reforms. Olympus Corp. added 3.5
percent in Tokyo on a newspaper report the company will increase
endoscope production capacity by 30 percent. Commonwealth Property
Office Fund jumped 4.6 percent in Sydney after the Australian property
fund received a higher competing bid. Honda Motor Co., which gets 83
percent of its revenue outside of Japan, lost 1.2 percent as the yen
gained. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index added 0.2
percent to 478.59 as of 12:31 p.m. in Hong Kong.
- Rubber Declines for Second Day as Yen’s Rebound Weakens Appeal. Rubber declined for a second day as
Japan’s currency rebounded from a two-month low against the
dollar, reducing the appeal of yen-denominated futures. The contract for delivery in April on the Tokyo Commodity
Exchange lost as much as 1.4 percent to 257.5 yen a kilogram
($2,581 a metric ton) and traded at 258.4 yen at 10:17 a.m.
local time. Futures have fallen 15 percent this year.
- Rebar Futures Swing as Investors Weigh Stockpiles, Steel Output.
Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai swung between gains and
losses as investors weighed falling stockpiles in China against higher
steel production. Rebar for May delivery, the most-active contract by volume
on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, earlier rose as much as 0.5
percent and fell as much as 0.2 percent before trading at 3,599
yuan ($591) a metric ton by 11:14 a.m. local time. The contract
fell 1.9 percent last week.
- Treasury Volatility Approaches Record Low Before Bernanke Speech. Treasury
market volatility fell to
near a record low on speculation Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S.
Bernanke will support the case for maintaining bond purchases in a
speech today. The Merrill Lynch MOVE Index slid to a six-month low of
58.31 yesterday, approaching the record of 48.87 set May 9. Bernanke
is scheduled to speak at 7 p.m. in Washington. Vice Chairman Janet
Yellen, in her confirmation hearing last week to be the next central
bank chairman, said she’s committed to
promoting an economic recovery and will ensure stimulus isn’t
removed too soon.
Wall Street Journal:
- Gen. Dempsey Warns Syria Options Growing More Complex. The nation’s top military general warned Monday that America’s
options for resolving the conflict in Syria are becoming more complex,
narrowing the country’s ability to influence the outcome in the Middle East.
Speaking at The Wall Street Journal CEO Council annual meeting, Gen.
Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that the
U.S. has few good options for dealing with a conflict that has claimed
more than 100,000
lives.
- J.P. Morgan, U.S. Reach Historic Settlement. Some $4 Billion in Aid to Homeowners Was Final Hurdle in $13 Billion Accord.
- Marco Rubio: No Bailouts for ObamaCare. The health-care law's 'risk corridors' could result in a huge taxpayer burden.
With every passing day, ObamaCare's flaws
are being exposed in painful ways for the American people. What started
as a broken website—and nonexistent Spanish one—is now snowballing into a
full-scale disaster that makes it increasingly clear this law can't be
fixed. Under ObamaCare, people are being recklessly exposed to identity
theft and fraud through the dysfunctional website and navigator network.
Fox News:
CNBC:
- Market milestones feed fear of bubbles. "I think we're starting to get to the point where psychology is taking
over," said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth
Financial. "You're seeing retail flows move back to equities. You have
expectations in the institutions where the market is going to move up
toward the end of the year. … Once you get disconnect from the
fundamentals, you can drift as high as you want."
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
NY Post:
- Census 'Faked' 2012 Election Jobs Report. In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to
September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from
Wall Street to Washington. The decline — from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent in September —
might not have been all it seemed. The numbers, according to a reliable
source, were manipulated. And the Census Bureau, which does the unemployment survey, knew it.
National Journal:
Reuters:
Telegraph:
China Securities Journal:
- Guangzhou
Raises Down Payment for 2nd-Home to 70%. The southern Chinese city of
Guangzhou will raise the minimum down payment for 2nd-home purchasers to
70% starting Nov. 25, citing a statement from PBOC's Guangzhou branch.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.75% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.0 -2.0 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 101.75 -2.25 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (SPLS)/.42
- (DE)/1.90
- (ADT)/.46
- (LOW)/.47
- (JCP)/-1.74
- (JACK)/.39
- (GMCR)/.75
- (POST)/.21
- (LTD)/.28
- (WSM)/.54
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The 3Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in 2Q.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed Bernanke speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, Germany ZEW Index, weekly retail sales reports, Deutsche Bank SMID-Cap Conference, Morgan Stanley Consumer/Retail Conference, UBS Tech Conference and the (CHRW) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 12.69 +4.10%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.07 +.04%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.39 -2.10%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.41 unch.
- ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 -35.29%
- Total Put/Call .76 +1.33%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.73 +.54%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 105.79 -1.17%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 64.0 +1.0%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 279.12 -1.91%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 10.5 +.25 basis point
- TED Spread 17.25 +.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% unch.
- Yield Curve 239.0 -2 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $137.0/Metric Tonne +.15%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.00 -1.9 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.10 +.5 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 +1 basis point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +126 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +6 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- European Stocks Jump to Highest Since ’08.
European shares rose to their highest level in more than five years
before a publication of Federal Open Market Committee minutes later this
week. Aberdeen Asset Management Plc jumped 15 percent after Lloyds
Banking Group Plc (LLOY) agreed to sell its Scottish Widows Investment
Partnership division to the money manager. Sonova Holding AG rose 5.4
percent as the world’s largest hearing-aid maker raised its full-year
forecast and said first-half revenue beat analyst estimates. Petrofac
Ltd. (PFC) plunged 17 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased 0.5 percent to 324.70 at the close of trading in London.
- Copper Falls After Funds Turn Bearish. Speculators
turned bearish on copper, with bets on price
declines outnumbering wagers on gains by 8,117 contracts in
futures and options in the week ended Nov. 12, U.S. Commodity Futures
Trading Commission data show. That’s the first time investors turned net
short since Sept. 17. “Money managers significantly cut their net
long positions in copper for the third week running,” Daniel Briesemann,
an analyst at Commerzbank AG, wrote in a report today. Price declines
since the Nov. 12 reporting date “point to a further
retreat on the part of speculative financial investors,” he
wrote.
The contract for delivery in three months fell 0.2 percent
to $6,995 a metric ton by 11 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange.
- WTI Declines After Reversing Earlier Advance of 0.5%. West Texas Intermediate crude declined in New York, giving up an earlier gain of 0.5 percent. WTI for December delivery fell 65 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $93.19 a barrel at 12:27 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The volume of all futures traded was 32 percent below the 100-day average.
- Gold Falls First Time in Three Days. Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.6 percent to
$1,279.20 an ounce at 10:54 a.m. on the Comex in New York.
Prices rose 0.2 percent last week. Trading was 39 percent below
average for the past 100 days for this time of day, data
compiled by Bloomberg showed.
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Washington Examiner:
Financial Times:
- US hospitals look to provide insurance for poor patients. US hospitals look to provide insurance for poor patients.
US
hospitals are exploring ways to buy “Obamacare” insurance plans for
their sickest and poorest patients as they strain under the weight of
tens of billions of dollars in uncompensated costs from the uninsured.
But the move is opposed by the Obama administration and insurers, who
fear it could add to the turmoil surrounding the new healthcare
marketplace.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Coal -3.90% 2) Gold & Silver -2.03% 3) Oil Service -1.63%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- Q, IBKR, CHKR, MELI, STML, HOS, GOGO, FI, TRN, TRS, CRM, IGT, GBX, AGIO, CPA, GTLS, ANFI, TSLA, ARII, VNDA, XOOM, AWAY, ARUN, LNG, CRZO and REGI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) DAR 2) TWTR 3) YRCW 4) USB 5) CRM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) TWTR 2) WMT 3) FB 4) MELI 5) TSLA
Charts:
