Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.09%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +1.71% 2) Biotech +.99% 3) HMOs +.73%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FMS, GA, DVA, BKW, EGHT, MDAS, CBST, UVE, CBST, KCG and BIIB

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HBAN 2) TXT 3) CNP 4) LL 5) GNK

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BK 2) PGR 3) JNJ 4) AAPL 5) GOOG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Obama Moves to Prevent Rift With Allies Over Iran Deal. Hours after announcing a nuclear deal with Iran, President Barack Obama moved to prevent the agreement from opening a rift with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and even with some Democrats in Congress. Obama called Netanyahu before departing on a trip to the U.S. West Coast. At an Israeli cabinet meeting today, the Israeli leader called the six-month accord with Iran “an historic mistake.” Some Democratic lawmakers with significant Jewish constituencies joined in the criticism, including Charles Schumer of New York, who said he was “disappointed” by a deal that “does not seem proportional.” Schumer, the Senate’s third-ranking Democrat, said that it’s now “more likely” that Democratic lawmakers will join Republicans in passing legislation to impose additional sanctions on Iran, a step that Obama warned in announcing the deal might either disrupt the agreement or distance the U.S. from allies needed to maintain remaining sanctions. 

• Abe’s Stimulus Folly May Destroy Yen and JGBs, Doshisha’s Hama. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s reliance on fiscal and monetary easing to defeat deflation may precipitate a “plunge” in the yen and sovereign bonds, said Noriko Hama, an economics professor at Doshisha University’s Business School in Kyoto. “The Bank of Japan is no longer functioning as a proper central bank,” Hama said at a speech in Tokyo on Nov. 21, referring to the BOJ’s doubling of monthly bond purchases to more than 7 trillion yen ($68.8 billion) in April. “The scariest scenario, and the one we should be most wary of, is a bottomless crash in the yen,” as the global financial community loses faith in the currency, Hama said.

• China Developers Owe 3.8 Trillion Yuan in Land Taxes, CCTV Says. Chinese property developers failed to pay at least 3.8 trillion yuan ($624 billion) in land taxes between 2005 and 2012, according to a China Central Television report. Agile Property Holdings Ltd. (3383), which owes the government 8.3 billion yuan in land appreciation taxes, and Soho China Ltd. (410), the biggest developer in Beijing’s central business district, owe the most among the 45 developers that failed to pay, CCTV reported yesterday, citing calculations by Li Jinsong, a Beijing-based lawyer. Other companies that owe the tax include China Vanke Co. (200002), the country’s biggest developer listed on mainland exchanges, the state television said. A gauge tracking property shares on the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.8 percent as of 10:20 a.m., the biggest decline among the five industry groups on the benchmark, which dropped 0.3 percent.

• China Trades Barbs With U.S. Over China Sea Defense Zone. China traded barbs with the U.S. and Japan over its newly announced air defense zone in the East China Sea, as tensions escalated between Asia’s largest economies and risked damaging a resurgence in trade. China’s Defense Ministry filed protests to both nations’ embassies, calling Japan’s remarks “unreasonable” and the U.S. comments “wrong,” according to a statement posted on the ministry’s website today. Japan lodged a complaint as the U.S. and South Korea expressed concern about China’s creation of the zone Nov. 23. 

• Oil Sinks on Iran Deal as Stocks Advance; Yen Slides. Crude oil headed for the biggest drop in three weeks after Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program in exchange for relief from some sanctions. Asian stocks climbed, while the yen fell to its weakest since May. Brent crude sank 2.2 percent to $108.62 a barrel by 12:32 p.m. in Tokyo. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which capped a seventh weekly gain Nov. 22, rose 0.3 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4 percent, while credit risk in the region fell. The yen dropped as much as 0.5 percent while Thailand’s currency and equities slid amid protests in Bangkok.

• Rebar Advances as China’s Hebei Demolishes Old Steel Furnaces. Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai advanced as the government in Hebei province began demolishing old steel blast furnaces. Rebar for May delivery, the most-active contract by volume on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rose as much as 0.8 percent to 3,642 yuan ($598) a metric ton and traded at 3,630 yuan at 10:49 a.m., local time.

• Europe Twin Woes Fester in Draghi Job-to-Inflation Fight. Europe’s twin woes of too little inflation and too many unemployed will dominate data due this week just as officials prepare forecasts backing the rationale for Mario Draghi’s surprise interest-rate cut. Inflation stayed close to the lowest level in almost four years in November with a reading of 0.8 percent, according to the median prediction of 44 economists polled by Bloomberg News. Data published at the same time on Nov. 29 might also reveal the euro-area jobless rate remained at a record 12.2 percent.

• Businesses Wary as Obama Picks Get Edge in Senate Rules. President Barack Obama will have more leverage to regulate the energy and financial-services industries under a Senate rule change that will let a simple majority confirm most presidential nominees. This week’s Senate vote means Obama won’t need Republican support to win approval of his nominees to run federal agencies and serve on U.S. trial and appeals courts. There are 231 Obama nominees pending in the Senate, including 53 judges, 81 candidates for cabinet-level agencies and 13 at independent regulatory agencies, according to the White House. Most important, in many ways, are Obama’s picks to serve on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, which handles challenges to federal regulations and is called the second-highest court in the country. “Under any administration, federal agencies seek to implement the president’s policies by developing regulations,” said Jeff Holmstead, a Washington lawyer at Bracewell & Giuliani LLP who has represented coal-heavy utilities. “But in most cases, the judges on the D.C. Circuit are the people who decide whether those regulations comply with federal law.” 

• Obama Hitting Seven Democratic Fundraisers on West Coast. President Barack Obama, with a full plate of domestic and foreign policy issues before him, is undertaking a three-day fundraising trip that includes stops at the Seattle home of former Microsoft executive Jon Shirley and Magic Johnson’s Los Angeles house. Obama left Washington today after the U.S. and other world powers announced an agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear program and as his administration seeks to recover from the troubled rollout of his health-care law. 

• Obamacare Fiasco Erodes Government as Problem-Solver Idea. When Barack Obama was elected president in 2008, voters were not merely choosing a candidate they found more compelling. They also were endorsing a renewal of the notion that government could be a force for good. The flawed rollout of Obamacare, his signature legislative achievement, is testing that premise, giving Republicans a chance to re-litigate the role of government and Democrats pause that the damage could lead to congressional losses.

• For-Profit Colleges Face Consumer Bureau Probe on Lending Roles. The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is investigating at least two for-profit colleges over potentially abusive practices in marketing and originating student loans. The CFPB, which is studying and preparing to directly supervise the entire private student loan industry, is examining potential illegal practices by Corinthian Colleges Inc. (COCO) and ITT Educational Services Inc. (ESI), according a document posted on the agency’s website and securities filings.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Iran Pact Faces Stiff Opposition. Israel and Some U.S. Lawmakers Blast Interim Deal to Curb Nuclear Program, Ease Sanctions. A groundbreaking deal to curb Iran's nuclear program faces towering obstacles at home and abroad to becoming a permanent agreement, starting with the U.S. Congress and two of America's closest allies. The leaders of both the Democratic and Republican parties are threatening to break with President Barack Obama's policy and enact new punitive sanctions on Iran, arguing that the interim deal reached in Geneva on Sunday yields too much to the Islamist regime while asking too little.

• Capital Journal: Allies Fear a U.S. Pullback in Mideast. Some Say Negotiations with Iran Represent Latest Evidence War-Weary U.S. Seeks to Close Books on Region's Long-Term Problems. America's allies in Israel and Saudi Arabia view the new nuclear agreement with Iran with a mixture of unease and alarm. But for some in the skeptics' camp, the broader concern extends well beyond the preliminary nuclear deal. Their underlying worry is that the negotiations with Iran represent just the latest evidence that a war-weary U.S. is slowly seeking to close the books on a series of nettlesome long-term problems, allowing Washington to pull back from its longtime commitment to the Middle East.

• Companies Prepare to Pass More Health Costs to Workers. Firms Brace for Influx of Participants in Insurance Plans Who Had Earlier Opted Out. Companies are bracing for an influx of participants in their insurance plans due to the health-care overhaul, adding to pressure to shift more of the cost of coverage to employees. Many employers are betting that the Affordable Care Act's requirement that all Americans have health insurance starting in 2014 will bring more people into their plans who have previously opted out. That, along with other rising expenses, is prompting companies to raise workers' premium contributions, steer them toward high-deductible plans and charge them more to cover family members.

• Katie Couric Deal to Become Yahoo’s(YHOO) “Global News Anchor” Set to Be Announced Monday.

• Google(GOOG) in Talks to Create Prescription Lenses, Designs for Google Glass. Internet Giant Exploring Ways to Put High-Tech Eyewear in Optometry Offices. 

• Iran's Nuclear Triumph. Tehran can continue to enrich uranium at 10,000 working centrifuges. President Obama is hailing a weekend accord that he says has "halted the progress of the Iranian nuclear program," and we devoutly wish this were true. The reality is that the agreement in Geneva with five Western nations takes Iran a giant step closer to becoming a de facto nuclear power. Start with the fact that this "interim" accord fails to meet the terms of several United Nations resolutions, which specify no sanctions relief until Iran suspends all uranium enrichment. Under this deal Iran gets sanctions relief, but it does not have to give up its centrifuges that enrich uranium, does not have to stop enriching, does not have to transfer control of its enrichment stockpiles, and does not have to shut down its plutonium reactor at Arak.

Marketwatch.com: 

• Holiday season ushers in retail stock jitters. Investors will be closely watching the holiday hysteria that’s soon to overtake the stores and shopping malls of America, especially as Wall Street fears the coming holiday season could be a dud for retailers. 

• The next 10 investment bubbles.

Zero Hedge:

• Iran Nuclear Deal Done (-20% Uranium Production For $6-7bn Lifted Sanctions).

• A Confused World Reacts To The Iran Nuclear Deal.

• S&P Closes Above 1800, Posts 7th Consecutive Weekly Increase: Longest Streak Since 2007. (graph)

• Chart Of The Day: Margin Expectations Edition.

• The Dark Heart Of Centralized Power.

• "We Will Soon Learn How Strong The QE Trap Has Become".

• 5 Things To Ponder This Weekend.

• Behold The World's Real "Death Cross". (graph)

• Today's Wealth Destruction Is Hidden By Government Debt.

• Nope, No Bubble Here... (graph)

• Killing The "We Paid Our Taxes; We Earned Our Benefits" Social Security Ponzi Meme.

• Banks Warn Fed They May Have To Start Charging Depositors.

• Jim Rogers Blasts "Abolish The Fed" Before It Self-Destructs.

• A Look Inside The "New Normal" McMansion.

ValueWalk:

• An Open Letter to the FOMC: Recognizing the Valuation Bubble In Equities.

Business Insider:

• Moscow Pops The Champagne As The US Stumbles At Home And Abroad. 

• Boeing(BA) Warns Of Engine Icing Risk On Its New Dreamliner Planes.

• UN Climate Talks On The 'Brink Of Collapse'.

• China Warns Japan Not To Enter The Airspace Over Disputed Islands.

• Top GOP Senator Calls Breakthrough Deal With Iran 'Distraction' From Obamacare.

• Israel Calls Nuclear Deal A 'Historic Mistake'.

• Pentagon Chief Slams China For 'Destabilizing' Island Area In East China Sea.

• New Study Says 11,000 Children Have Died During Syrian Conflict.

• CITI(C): Two Straight Weeks Of Stock Market Euphoria Raises Deep Concern. (graph)

• Here's The Ominous Demographics Chart That Shows What China Will Become In Less Than 2 Decades.

Wall Street All-Stars:

• Indicator Update: Will the consumer be spending for the holidays?

New York Times:

• Disruptions: If It Looks Like a Bubble and Floats Like a Bubble … It sounds like heresy around here. But here goes: Is this another tech bubble?

LA Times:

• Fisker sells its assets to Hong Kong tycoon, files for bankruptcy. An investor group headed by Hong Kong tycoon Richard Li purchased the federal loan made to Karma plug-in hybrid sports car maker Fisker Automotive and acquired the assets of the nearly defunct automaker.

  New York Post:

• False Job Numbers: Did the White House Know? Let me be the first to ask: Did the White House know that employment reports were being falsified? Last week I reported exclusively that someone at the Census Bureau’s Philadelphia region had been screwing around with employment data. And that person, after he was caught in 2010, claimed he was told to do so by a supervisor two levels up the chain of command. On top of that, a reliable source whom I haven’t identified said the falsification of employment data by Census was widespread and ongoing, especially around the time of the 2012 election.

The Detroit News: 

• Obamacare will kill middle class. Obamacare is the biggest assault ever on the middle class. If not radically altered or repealed, it will diminish lifestyles and increase the financial struggles of average individuals and families. Combined with other costly government meddling in the economy, it will destroy the concept of an American middle. Incomes that over the past decade have barely kept pace with inflation will not absorb the surging cost of health insurance that will come for many, if not most people, on Jan. 1. We’re painfully familiar with Obamacare’s impact on the individual insurance market. Those who buy their own insurance are seeing policies canceled and replaced with ones costing two to three times as much. President Barack Obama’s fake fix won’t provide much relief.

Telegraph: 

• No one wants Russia to implode but optimists have their work cut out. The Russian economy is in a parlous state and needs radical changes to the political regime.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.0 -4.5 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 101.75 -1.5 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures +.36%.

• S&P 500 futures +.26%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.29%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (HI)/.52

• (NUAN)/.29

• (DY)/.46

• (PANW)/.07

• (CPRT)/.34

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales for October are estimated to rise +1.1% versus a -5.6% decline in September.

10:30 am EST

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for November is estimated to rise to 5.0 versus 3.6 in October.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Taruillo speaking, 2Y T-Note auction, BoJ Minutes and the (SNE) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising long-term rates, profit-taking, technical selling, increasing emerging markets debt angst and more shorting. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,804.76 +.37%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,804.76 +.37%

• DJIA 16,o64.77 +.65%

• NASDAQ 3,991.64 +.14%

• Russell 2000 1,124.92 +.78%

• S&P 500 High Beta 29.29 +.21%

• Wilshire 5000 18,912.74 +.28%

• Russell 1000 Growth 909.65 +.04%

• Russell 1000 Value 909.65 +.45%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 443.99 -.46%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,418.29 +.11%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 858.80 -.89%

• Transports 7,199.37 -.16%

• Utilities 495.31 -2.29%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 104.53 +.32%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.90 +.39%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,141.21 -.12%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 950.43 +.05%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 194,426 -.21%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 149 -359

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 31.03 -20.70%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 313,160 +2.49%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,620,640 -6.64%

• Total Put/Call .94 +25.33%

• OEX Put/Call 1.39 +183.67%

• ISE Sentiment 144.0 -5.88%

• NYSE Arms .81 +3.85%

• Volatility(VIX) 12.26 +.57%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.45 -4.86%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.07 +3.33%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.59 +.23%

• Smart Money Flow Index 12,053.21 +.42%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.663 Trillion -.20%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow $5.407 Billion n/a

• AAII % Bulls 34.4 -12.3%

• AAII % Bears 29.5 +7.3%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 275.21 +.32%

• Crude Oil 94.77 +1.16%

• Reformulated Gasoline 272.05 +2.40%

• Natural Gas 3.78 +3.84%

• Heating Oil 303.43 +3.12%

• Gold 1,242.10 -3.61%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 187.68 +.73%

• Copper 322.05 +1.50%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 360.67 USD/Ton +5.81%

• China Iron Ore Spot 136.50 USD/Ton -.22%

• Lumber 359.60 -1.05%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,386.88 +.98%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.40% +20 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0170 +203.5%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 119.60 +.17%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.70 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.30 -1.7 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 34.0% chance of no change, 66.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 12/18

• US Dollar Index 80.65 -.18%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.14 +1.52%

• Yield Curve 246.0 +5 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.74% +4 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.864 Trillion n/a
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.88 +18.88%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 191.0 -3.05%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 62.50 -1.37%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 101.73 -.68%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 230.0 +4.44%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 108.16 +.92%

• Egypt Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 665.0 -2.92%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 353.0 -10 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20% +1 basis point

• TED Spread 17.0 -.25 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.75 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 +1.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 69.64 -1.15%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 101.56 -5.11%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 288.70 +1.46%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 103.0 +1.0 basis point

• M1 Money Supply $2.587 Trillion -1.30%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,054.10 -1.20%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 338,500 -5,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.2% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.22% -13 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 451.10 -2.30%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -34.60 -.7 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.40% +10 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.24/gallon +.04/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,499 -1.19%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,043.77 unch.

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.50 +7.1%

• Rail Freight Carloads 266,643 +.52%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +1.0%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value -.5%

Leading Sectors

• Biotech +4.0%

• HMOs +3.7%

• I-Banks +3.3%

• Defense +2.3%

• Banks +2.3%

Lagging Sectors

• Utilities -2.3% 

• Oil Service -2.4%

• Alt Energy -4.3%

• Coal -4.4%

• Gold & Silver -6.7%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (16)

• KIRK, UBNK, DAKT, TTS, LZB, CENJF, CYBX, AMWD, LMOS, ENTA, RCKB, CSII, BONT, MINI, AEC and TMUS

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (16)

• JEC, DAR, SJM, GOOD, NHI, SGMS, ARUN, STAN, PDCO, CPB, FOR, DWRE, BBY, GME, AMRI and LQDT

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Yen Weakness, Lower Long-Term Rates, Biotech/Restaurant Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.41 -1.97%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.15 +.67%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.59 -1.49%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.90 -2.73%

• ISE Sentiment Index 171.0 -17.79%

• Total Put/Call .90 +13.92%

• NYSE Arms .82 -17.90% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.12 -2.0%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.57 -4.22%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 62.50 unch.

• Emerging Market CDS Index 289.35 -2.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.75 -.75 basis point

• TED Spread 17.0 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% unch.

• Yield Curve 247.0 -4 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $136.50/Metric Tonne +.15%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.70 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.30 -.2 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +205 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long