Weekly Outlook

Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on Russia/Ukraine tensions, global growth fears, increasing emerging markets/European debt angst, technical selling, a stronger yen and profit-taking. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,866.40 +1.37%*







The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,866.40 +1.37%

• DJIA 16,302.70 +1.48%

• NASDAQ 4,276.78 +.74%

• Russell 2000 1,193.73 +1.04%

• S&P 500 High Beta 31.26 +1.92%

• Wilshire 5000 19,703.90 +1.28%

• Russell 1000 Growth 873.76 +.75%

• Russell 1000 Value 941.69 +1.85%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 436.91 +.46%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,500.78 +2.35%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 935.84 +2.48%

• Transports 7,515.18 +.53%

• Utilities 521.66 -.12%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 108.14 +2.29%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 38.90 +.66%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,182.57 -.09%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 967.32 +.44%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 209,792 +.89%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 163 +76

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 30.77 +60.0%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 384,285 -5.54%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,623,266 -4.36%

• Total Put/Call .89 +15.58%

• OEX Put/Call 1.03 +11.96%

• ISE Sentiment 113.0 +41.25%

• NYSE Arms 1.27 -16.99%

• Volatility(VIX) 15.0 -15.82%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.34 -7.93%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.23 -4.87%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.98 -1.1%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,588.07 -.15%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.646 Trillion -1.17%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow +$1.902 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 36.8 -11.0%
• AAII % Bears 26.2 -2.5%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 299.40 -1.15%

• Crude Oil 99.55 +.50%

• Reformulated Gasoline 291.67 -1.58%

• Natural Gas 4.31 -2.18%

• Heating Oil 292.40 -.76%

• Gold 1,335.0 -3.51%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 182.35 +.14%

• Copper 294.90 +.29%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 362.67 USD/Ton -2.75%

• China Iron Ore Spot 110.70 USD/Ton +.54%

• Lumber 335.0 -1.61%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,482.22 -1.12%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.3% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1397 -7.11%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 121.26 +.12%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -32.60 +.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.20 +3.8 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 36.0% chance of no change, 64.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 4/30

• US Dollar Index 80.11 +.89%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.18 +.03%

• Yield Curve 232.0 +1 basis point

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.74% +9 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.179 Trillion +.98%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.66 -13.44%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 141.0 +1.44%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 43.18 -6.25%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 95.86 -5.08%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 289.61 -4.91%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 88.50 +.35%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 273.99 -1.50%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 380.51 +.36%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.15% -3 basis points

• TED Spread 18.75 -.25 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 +1.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 69.38 +3.71%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 98.0 +4.02%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 316.88 -3.57%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 88.50 -8.5 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $2.793 Trillion -.79%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,019.20 -.20%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 338,500 +5,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.2% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.32% -5 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 369.0 -1.15%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -29.0 -1.4 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.6% +10 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.53/gallon +.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,621 +9.75%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,068.62 -.63%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 -8.33%

• Rail Freight Carloads 255,951 +4.91%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +1.8%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +.4%

Leading Sectors

• HMOs +6.2%

• Steel +5.1%

• Coal +4.6%

• Banks +4.5%

• Oil Service +3.9%

Lagging Sectors

• REITs -.3% 

• Gaming -1.3%

• Homebuilders -1.3%

• Biotech -2.8%

• Gold & Silver -7.2%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (15)

• SGK, FSLR, HZNP, FF, ULTA, MRCY, FPRX, STAA, SHLO, RCAP, TLYS, EXAS, HMTV, OMER and VRA

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (2)

• XLRN and RPTP

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Less Dovish Fed Commentary, Technical Selling, Biotech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.79 +1.86%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.13 -.02%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.98 -1.54%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.68 +2.40%

• ISE Sentiment Index 125.0 -28.57%

• Total Put/Call .80 +6.67%

• NYSE Arms 1.23 +142.0% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.19 -2.05%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.0 -1.43%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 46.75 -1.27%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 95.75 -.94%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 316.90 -1.84%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 380.50 -1.14%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 18.75 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.

• Yield Curve 232.0 -3.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $110.70/Metric Tonne unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -32.60 unch.

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.20 +.1 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.15 +1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +125 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -41 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Lower: On losses in my biotech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and took some profits in my biotech sector longs

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• Putin Clears Crimea Annexation as Ukraine Signs EU Pact. Russia completed its annexation of Crimea as the European Union signed an accord with Ukraine and expanded sanctions, escalating the worst standoff between Russia and the West since the Cold War. President Vladimir Putin put his signature in Moscow to legislation to absorb the Black Sea peninsula and its port of Sevastopol from Ukraine. In Brussels, the EU and Ukraine put the seal on the political part of an association agreement, whose rejection last year by ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych triggered the dispute between Russia and its former Soviet-era enemies. The 28-nation bloc also blacklisted 12 Russian and Crimean political and military figures. 

• China Money-Market Rate Has Biggest Weekly Jump in Three Months. China’s benchmark money-market rate had the biggest five-day jump since December after the central bank drained funds from the banking system for a sixth week. 

• Europe Stocks Are Little Changed After Confidence Report. European stocks were little changed, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index posting its biggest weekly gain in five weeks, as consumer confidence increased more than forecast, while derivatives contracts expired. Rio Tinto Group rose 1.6 percent as copper rebounded. Commerzbank AG climbed 2.5 percent as Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating on the German lender. Havas SA lost 1.8 percent after posting 2013 profit that fell short of analysts’ estimates. Remy Cointreau SA retreated the most since November as UBS predicted China’s anti-extravagance measures will continue to cut into the cognac-maker’s profit. The Stoxx 600 gained 0.1 percent to 327.91 at the close of trading.

• Oil-Tanker Glut Deja Vu Souring Ross, Ardmore Investments. Here we go again. Six years after shipowners ordered too many vessels before the global recession, driving down rates and leaving new ships anchored for lack of cargoes, investors are souring again on oil-product tankers in the face of a new glut. 

• Sell Signal for Stocks Seen as Bears Roar in Executive Offices. Bears are prowling in corner offices even as the stock market climbs to an all-time high. Executives are dumping shares of their own companies at a rate suggesting the market may be near a short-term peak, according to Argus Research. The firm tracked an index of insider transactions from Vickers Stock Research. While the measure considers numerous factors, the bottom line is clear: at negative 19.88, the index is approaching a record low of negative 21.44. “Insiders as a group do not see compelling near-term value in stocks,” Argus wrote in a report today. “Insiders have a habit of being bullish at market bottoms and bearish when markets are top-heavy.”  

• Yellen Drives Dollar Toward Strongest Week in Two Months. The dollar was set for its biggest weekly advance in two months versus major peers before Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher speaks today amid prospects the central bank will pare stimulus.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Crisis in Ukraine. Streaming Coverage:

• Obama Meeting With Tech CEOs To Discuss Government Surveillance. Meeting Expected to Include Google's Eric Schmidt and Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg. 

Fox News:

• Another Glitch: Newly discovered HealthCare.gov error giving bad info on premium aid.

CNBC: 

• Cramer issues warning on IPOs: Be careful. (video)

• The best and worst states for taxpayers. (map)

• Why Goldman Sachs(GS) is worried about Bank of America(BAC).

ZeroHedge:

• Petrodollar Alert: Putin Prepares To Announce "Holy Grail" Gas Deal With China.

• The Stunning History Of "All Cash" Home Purchases In The US. (graph)

• Senator Dan Coats' Top 10 Reasons Why Russian Sanctions Suck.

• When Even Goldman(GS) Complains About HFT.

• Is The Biotech Bubble Bursting? (graph)

• Stocks Slump As Bullard Doubles Down On Yellen's "Six Month" Fedian Slip.

Business Insider:

• CHART: Shrimp Hyperinflation.

• Three Things That Will Happen If This Financial Market Warfare Keeps Heating Up.

CNN:

• Subprime mortgages making a comeback. Once synonymous with toxic, adjustable-rate mortgages -- like the "exploding ARMs" that led many homeowners to lose their homes to foreclosure during the housing bust -- subprime mortgages are once again being offered to borrowers who pose a higher credit risk, typically those with credit scores that fall below 640.

CBS News:

• Russian troop buildup now covers essentially the entire Ukrainian border. The buildup of Russian troops now covers essentially the entire Ukrainian border - with some soldiers as close as 50 kilometers away, CBS News national security correspondent David Martin reports. The buildup is raising serious concerns that Russia could invade Ukraine proper.

Reuters:

• Shanghai rebar falls for 6th week, HRC slips on debut. Shanghai rebar futures fell 1 percent on Friday and dropped for a sixth consecutive week amid lean steel demand that has led to an uneventful debut of China's hot-rolled coil contracts. A seasonal pickup in construction demand in China may not be strong enough to support steel prices as the overall economy faces headwinds from weak external demand that has hit its manufacturing sector, and a reform-minded Beijing. The most-traded rebar for October delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange gave up 34 yuan to close at 3,220 yuan ($520) a tonne, after falling as low as 3,211 yuan. Rebar, a construction steel product, was down 0.6 percent for the week, its sixth weekly fall since Chinese markets reopened after the Lunar New Year break in early February.

• Fed's Fisher asks, is rate guidance just a fad? A top U.S. Federal Reserve official critical of the U.S. central bank's super-easy monetary policy on Friday questioned the very core of the Fed's current approach, which rests on giving markets a better sense of the future path of interest rates. He wants the Fed to wind down its bond-buying stimulus as quickly as possible.

Telegraph:

• Consumer credit and falling savings are indeed driving Britain’s unhealthy boomlet. (graph)

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.01%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Biotech -3.01% 2) Homebuilders -1.21% 3) Software -.71%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• CMGE, CRTO, SYMC, PBF, DATA, RALY, ZION, IBB, AIR, AMRI, NKE, BIB, SGMO, CHL, GILD, EXAS, SSTK, RGDO, BIIB, USMO, MONT, BT, LGF, NMBL, OMED, RYL, SSTK, IRBT, SCTY, ENLK, ALXN, NOW, INCY, ANAC, SGMO and CLDX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) OXY 2) CNX 3) CHS 4) AKS 5) NKE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GILD 2) VZ 3) LNKD 4) HLF 5) LEN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume