Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
- Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
- Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 12.29 -15.47%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.14 +.19%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 5.96 -3.09%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.47 -8.64%
- ISE Sentiment Index 84.0 -9.68%
- Total Put/Call .92 -7.07%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.25 -3.79%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.30 -2.57%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 36.39 +3.38%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 73.89 +2.06%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 237.92 -3.31%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 307.60 +1.45%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 unch.
- TED Spread 22.25 -.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
- Yield Curve 200.0 -1.0 basis point
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $96.60/Metric Tonne -.92%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -18.0 -1.3 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.80 -.3 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 unch.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +139 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Obama Says Missile That Hit Jet Was Fired From Rebel Area. President
Barack Obama said the U.S. has concluded that a surface-to-air missile
launched from insurgent-held territory in eastern Ukraine brought down a
Malaysia Air jetliner, killing all 298 people on board. “Their
deaths are an outrage of unspeakable proportions,” Obama said today at
the White House. Russia continues to refuse to de-escalate the conflict,
he said, calling for an immediate cease-fire in Ukraine. The U.S. is
raising pressure on Russia to end support for the rebels as the United
Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting over the catastrophe.
Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, told the 15-member
council today in New York that the U.S. is pushing Ukraine to escalate
tensions and Russia “places all blame on Kiev.”
- Netanyahu Orders Military to Get Ready for Wider Gaza Incursion.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he ordered the military
to prepare to widen a ground operation against Palestinian militants in
the Gaza Strip which began after days of aerial bombardment. Israeli soldiers, backed by tanks, heavy
artillery, aircraft and warships, moved into the Hamas-controlled
enclave late yesterday after 2,100 air strikes over 10 days failed to
quash barrages of rockets fired from Gaza at Israel. Gaza fighters also
infiltrated Israel by sea and through what Israel says is a network of
tunnels dug under the border.
- PBOC Seen Tightening as Citi Lifts GDP Outlook: China
Credit. Signs that China's economic recovery is fueled by an escalation
in the world's biggest corporate debt load are prompting swap traders to
bet on tighter central bank monetary policy. The cost of one-year
swaps, the fixed payment needed to receive the seven-day repurchase
rate, has risen 39 basis points from July 11 to 4.12% and is set for the
steepest five-day jump since June 21, 2013.
- Most European Stocks Drop as Ukraine Conflict Deepens.
Most European stocks fell, even as the benchmark index completed a
weekly advance, amid concern that the conflict between Ukraine and
Russia is deepening. Volvo (VOLVB) AB and Schibsted ASA dropped at least
5.4 percent each after posting second-quarter profit that missed
analysts’ estimates. Air France-KLM and Ryanair Holdings Plc led a
retreat among European travel stocks. Shire Plc rose 4 percent after
AbbVie Inc. agreed to buy the drugmaker for 52.48 pounds ($89.80) a
share. Ericsson AB posted the biggest rally since April 2011 after
reporting a profit margin that beat forecasts. The
Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost less than 0.1 percent to 339.66 at the
close in London as three stocks fell for every two that climbed.
- Crude Set for First Weekly Gain in a Month on Ukraine.
WTI for August delivery dropped 24 cents to $102.95 a barrel at 12:26
p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $103.94, the
highest intraday level since July 8. The volume of all futures traded
was 47 percent above the
100-day average for the time of day. Futures are up 2.1 percent
this week.
- In Bond Market Musical Chairs, Be Ready for Bids Halting.
It’s hard to blame bond investors for being nervous. They accelerated
withdrawals from the riskiest debt in the past week, yanking $2.3
billion from high-yield bond funds, the biggest outflow since June 2013,
according to a Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) report. Wall Street’s
largest bond dealers cut their net junk-bond holdings to $4.8 billion in
the week ended July 9, the lowest level since the Federal Reserve began
reporting the data in April 2013. While credit still shows signs of froth -- with new funds to buy junk-rated loans popping up left and right --
investors are increasingly anxious about when the market will turn.
Their quickness to dump high-risk securities for the safest ones around
shows a lack of faith that easy-money policies from central banks around
the world are fueling sufficient economic growth to keep this rally
going. Aside from lackluster growth, there’s also concern that markets
will unravel as the Fed tries to withdraw its stimulus. Fed Chair
Janet Yellen herself has said she sees signs of excessive risk-taking,
particularly in the markets for bonds and loans rated below investment
grade. “My nervousness about what is going on in the high-yield
market is escalating,” Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Brean
Capital LLC in New York said in a July 17 e-mailed note. “It is a bit like musical chairs. Everyone walking in a circle pretending not to be eyeing the chair, but scared that when the
music stops, they won’t have a chair -- or, in this case, a
bid.”
Wall Street Journal:
- Bank of Italy Slashes 2014 Economic Growth Forecast. Central Bank Said Growth in Next Two Years Would Be Modest. The Bank of Italy dealt another blow to
hopes of a convincing recovery in the country this year as it slashed
its economic growth forecast and warned of "downside risk." The
Bank of Italy said economic growth in the next two years would be
modest, something the Italian government is hoping it can change. The
central bank slashed its projection of Italy's gross domestic product
growth rate for 2014 to 0.2% from its January forecast of a 0.7% rise,
while it raised its 2015 forecast to an increase of 1.3% versus an
earlier estimate of 1.0% growth.
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
- Exclusive: Morgan Stanley rebuilds in commodities trading. After more than a year of scaling back in commodities, Morgan Stanley (MS.N) is ready to expand. The Wall Street bank plans to hire about a dozen traders, sales staff and
other professionals in the United States. It's building up commodities trading
and financing businesses that can profit despite tougher regulations, people
familiar with the matter told Reuters.
- Further sanctions would have "chilling effect" on Russia -IIF. Further sanctions
on Russia would have a "broader chilling effect" on the country and its
companies that are already largely excluded from raising foreign
capital, a lobbying group representing 500 world financial institutions and major banks warned on Friday.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Gold & Silver -1.5% 2) Oil Service -.06% 3) Ag -.05%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- TGP, RP, CPHD, VOC, HUBG, BGS, CE, ROG, NUS, WSO, CFX, ALV, NVDA, JCI, ATHN, VFC, IBM, LH, SLB, BIS, KORS, TRW, ENS, CBS and NBL
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) NVDA 2) LAMR 3) CIEN 4) AMGN 5) GT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) NUS 2) VFC 3) NVDA 4) INTC 5) AMD
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Biotech +2.06% 2) Steel +1.95% 3) Networking +1.67%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- SWKS, ERIC, YPF, WAL, GTIV, FCS, PBR, TQNT and RFMD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) GGP 2) NI 3) SWKS 4) ADT 5) GLW
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) IBM 2) SKYW 3) SLB 4) VZ 5) AMZN
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Ukraine Says Malaysian Airliner Shot Down Near Russian Border. A
Malaysia Airlines (MAS) jet was shot down over eastern Ukraine, killing
all 298 people on board, in an attack that the government in Kiev
blamed on pro-Russian rebels. The separatists denied the accusation. Ukraine’s
state security service said it intercepted phone conversations among
militants discussing the missile strike, which knocked Flight 17 from
the sky about 30 kilometers (18 miles) from the Russian border. U.S.
officials said the weapon probably was a Russian-made model used widely
in Eastern Europe. The Boeing Co. 777 crashed en route to Kuala
Lumpur from Amsterdam in the main battleground of Ukraine’s civil war,
threatening to escalate tensions in Europe’s worst geopolitical crisis
since the end of the Cold War. A European air-traffic control agency
routed planes away from the region, which sits astride some of the
busiest routes to and from Asia.
- Putin Cornered as Malaysia Jet Crash Shows Isolation on Ukraine. President
Vladimir Putin’s intransigence over Ukraine risks turning him into a
global pariah should the blame for downing a Malaysian Air jet with 298
passengers aboard fall on pro-Russia rebels in eastern Ukraine. The
crash of the Boeing Co. (BA) 777 follows by less than 24 hours the
imposition of new sanctions against Russia that targeted major energy
companies and banks. While the rebels denied accusations by the Ukraine
government that they shot down
the flight, the U.S. said this week that the separatists were being
supplied with more heavy weaponry from Russia.
- Israeli Ground Troops Move Into Gaza to Stop Hamas Rockets Fire. Israel
sent soldiers and tanks into Gaza in a ground offensive aimed at
stopping the barrage of missiles fired by Hamas and other Palestinian
militants after a short-lived cease-fire collaped earlier in the day.
Accompanied
by heavy artillery, the troop movement last night into the
Hamas-controlled coastal enclave marked the first significant Israeli
ground operation in Gaza since 2009. It followed intensified aerial
attacks in which more than 200 Gaza residents were killed. Palestinians
launched some 1,250 rockets into Israel, killing one, with many
intercepted by Israeli missile defenses. Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu instructed the Israel Defense Forces to begin the
operation to “destroy the terror tunnels dug from the Gaza Strip into
Israeli territory,” according to a text message at 10:36 p.m. yesterday
in Jerusalem. The goal is “restoring quiet to the citizens of Israel for
an extended period, with significant damage to the infrastructure of
Hamas and other
terriorist organizations.”
- European Banks Seen Bowing to U.S. Russia Bans Amid Rising Fines. European
banks, contending with escalating U.S. fines for sanctions violations,
will likely bow to fresh bans imposed by the U.S. on financing Russian
companies as the risks of dealing with the nation mount. The U.S. Treasury on July 16 named Russian companies to be barred from accessing U.S. equityor debt markets for new
financings with maturities beyond 90 days. Lenders elsewhere may
follow the sanctions, according to two European banking
officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.
- China Home Prices Fall in Record Number of Cities on Price Cuts. China’s new-home prices fell in a
record number of cities tracked by the government as developers
cut prices to boost sales volume. Prices fell in 55 of the 70 cities last month from May, the
National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement today, the
most since January 2011 when the government changed the way it
compiles the statistics. Prices in Shanghai and the southern
city of Guangzhou fell 0.6 percent each from May, the biggest
drop since January 2011, while they declined 0.4 percent in
Shenzhen. Prices fell 1.7 percent in the eastern city of
Hangzhou, the largest monthly decline among all the cities.
- Government Bonds Rally Around the World on Demand for Safety. Government bonds rallied around the
world, with a gauge of sovereign debt climbing to a 14-month
high, as the shooting down of a Malaysia Airlines plane in
Ukraine drove demand for the safest assets. An index of government
bonds climbed to the highest level since May 2013, based on Bank of
America Merrill Lynch data. The securities have returned 4.3 percent so
far this year, recouping a loss from 2013. The aircraft was shot down
over eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 people on board, in an attack the
government in Kiev blamed on pro-Russian rebels. The separatists
denied the accusation.
- Kuroda Softens Yen Stance as Export Pain Evaporates: Currencies. Foreign-exchange traders detect a
softening in Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s stance toward the stronger yen. While
the currency has risen 4 percent this year to 101.22 per dollar, the
central-bank chief signaled this week he’s satisfied with the current
exchange rate. Kuroda told reporters in Tokyo the yen is no longer
excessively strong and that the BOJ is on its way to meeting its
inflation target. “He seems to be just ready to sit, wait, watch,” Sean Callow, a Sydney-based strategist at Westpac Banking Corp., said
by phone on July 16. Westpac sees the yen climbing to 100 versus
the greenback by the end of this year.
- Malaysian Air Drops as Ukraine Crash Follows Missing Flight 370. The stock lost 13 percent to 19.5 sen as of 9:04 a.m. in Kuala Lumpur, extending this year’s drop to 37 percent.
- Asian Stocks Slip With Ringgit on Plane While Bonds Rise.
Asian stocks fell, with shares in Kuala Lumpur dropping and the ringgit
leading declines among emerging-market currencies after a Malaysia
Airlines plane was downed in Ukraine. Bonds in the region rose with oil
as Israel sending troops into Gaza added to global geopolitical
concerns. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.6 percent by 10:03 a.m. in Tokyo, falling for the first time this week. The FTSE
Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index lost 0.5 percent as Malaysian Airline
System Bhd shares tumbled 16 percent. Japan’s Topix gauge slid
1.1 percent.
- WTI Extends Biggest Gain in Month on Rising World Tension.
Futures rose as much as 0.7 percent in New York, extending a 2 percent increase yesterday, the most since June 12.
The Boeing Co. 777 crashed en route to Kuala Lumpur from Amsterdam in
the main battleground of Ukraine’s civil war, threatening to escalate
tensions in Europe’s worst geopolitical crisis since the end of the Cold
War. Israel’s movement of troops and tanks
into the coastal enclave marks the first significant ground
operation in Gaza since 2009.
- SEC Says House Insider Probe Involves 44 Funds, Entities.
A regulatory insider-trading probe
involving the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee and a top
staff member also includes 44 hedge funds and other entities, according to a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing in
Manhattan federal court.
- JPMorgan’s(JPM) Dimon Gets $37 Million of Crisis-Era Options. JPMorgan
Chase & Co. (JPM:US) will let Jamie Dimon collect about $37 million
in stock options created during the financial crisis, as the board
stands by its leader after risk-management lapses and billions of
dollars in legal settlements. JPMorgan
gave the chief executive officer 2 million stock-appreciation rights in
January 2008, saying they would be available in five years if the board
still deemed it appropriate. Last year, the firm delayed vesting by 18
months to address flawed internal controls exposed by botched
derivatives bets.
Wall Street Journal:
- Malaysia Airlines Crash in Ukraine: Streaming Coverage.
- Malaysia Airlines Plane Was Hit by Surface-to-Air Missile, U.S. Officials Say. At Least 283 Passengers Were on Board Flight Bound for Kuala Lumpur From Amsterdam. A Malaysia Airlines 3786.KU -13.33% plane carrying 283 passengers and 15 crew crashed Thursday in the
battle-torn east Ukraine region of Donetsk, where U.S. intelligence
agencies say it was struck by a ground-to-air missile. The
U.S. agencies are divided over whether the missile was launched by the
Russian military or by pro-Russia separatist rebels, who officials say
lack the expertise on their own to bring down a commercial airline in
midflight. "All roads lead to the Russians to some degree," said a U.S. official.
- Israel Launches Ground Invasion of Gaza. Aim is to Crush Hamas Militants. Israel launched an open-ended ground invasion of Gaza aimed at
crushing Hamas militants after 10 days of aerial bombardment, sending
thousands of troops with tanks and armored vehicles into the Palestinian
territory. The operation began at about 10 p.m. local time
Thursday after Palestinian militants fired more than 100 rockets into
Israel at the end of a five-hour cease-fire meant to allow Gazans to
restock on food and other...
Fox News:
- Israel launches large-scale ground operation in Gaza Strip. The Israeli military reportedly sent thousands of troops into the
Gaza Strip Thursday as part of a large-scale ground operation aimed at
destroying underground tunnels and other "terror infrastructure" used by
Hamas to target the Jewish State. The army said in a statement late Thursday that after 10 days of
Hamas attacks, it had "initiated a ground operation within the Gaza
Strip." The army said the objective was to strike a "significant blow to
Hamas' terror infrastructure."
CNBC:
- Stockman: Russia could be the next black swan. (video) In an
exclusive interview with "Futures Now," Stockman said the turmoil in
Russia could spark the next series of black swan events and cause the
S&P 500 to lose "hundreds" of points. "We're at the very edge of a bubble which has been
inflating since early 2009, and as a result of that any time now we
could be hit by something you don't expect like this incident in the
Ukraine or anything else that will take the market down in a big way."
- Google(GOOG) earnings: $6.08 per share, ex-items, vs. expected EPS of $6.24.
Google reported earnings that missed expectations while revenue topped
Wall Street estimates on Thursday. Shares rallied in extended hours
trading. The Internet giant reported earnings of $6.08 per share, excluding one-time items, on revenue of $15.96 billion. Analysts had expected the company to report earnings excluding items of $6.24 a share on nearly $15.62 billion in revenue, according to a consensus estimate from Thomson Reuters.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
Telegraph:
Evening Recommendations
Oppenheimer:
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.0 +1.0 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 72.50 +2.0 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (ALV)/1.55
- (BK).56
- (GE)/.39
- (HON)/1.36
- (IPG)/.25
- (JCI)/.83
- (KSU)/1.18
- (LH)/1.77
- (ERIC)/1.02
- (VFC)/.35
- (BMI)/.57
- (FHN)/.17
Economic Releases
9:55 am EST
- Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for July is estimated to rise to 83.0 versus 82.5 in June.
10:00 am EST
- Leading Indicators for June are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in May.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The G-20 Meetings and the (BURL) annual meeting could impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
- Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 13.22 +20.2%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.04 -.32%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.01 +2.21%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.52 +11.0%
- ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 -44.85%
- Total Put/Call .95 +17.28%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.03 +3.65%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.35 +4.10%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 35.20 -1.61%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 71.99 +1.91%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 242.82 +3.60%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 304.68 n/a
- 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 +1.0 basis point
- TED Spread 22.75 +1.5 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.0 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1 basis point
- Yield Curve 201.0 -4.0 basis point
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $97.5/Metric Tonne -.51%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -16.7 -3.7 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.50 -2.9 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 unch.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -100 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -30 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging markets shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long