Friday, July 18, 2014

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Muted Global Response to Russia, Earnings Optimism, Short-Covering, Yen Weakness, Biotech/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.29 -15.47%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.14 +.19%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 5.96 -3.09%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.47 -8.64%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 84.0 -9.68%
  • Total Put/Call .92 -7.07%
  • NYSE Arms 1.07 -19.12% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.25 -3.79%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.30 -2.57%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 36.39 +3.38%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 73.89 +2.06%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 237.92 -3.31%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 307.60 +1.45%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 unch.
  • TED Spread 22.25 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 200.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $96.60/Metric Tonne -.92%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -18.0 -1.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.80 -.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +139 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 
  • Obama Says Missile That Hit Jet Was Fired From Rebel Area. President Barack Obama said the U.S. has concluded that a surface-to-air missile launched from insurgent-held territory in eastern Ukraine brought down a Malaysia Air jetliner, killing all 298 people on board. “Their deaths are an outrage of unspeakable proportions,” Obama said today at the White House. Russia continues to refuse to de-escalate the conflict, he said, calling for an immediate cease-fire in Ukraine. The U.S. is raising pressure on Russia to end support for the rebels as the United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting over the catastrophe. Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, told the 15-member council today in New York that the U.S. is pushing Ukraine to escalate tensions and Russia “places all blame on Kiev.” 
  • Netanyahu Orders Military to Get Ready for Wider Gaza Incursion. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he ordered the military to prepare to widen a ground operation against Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip which began after days of aerial bombardment. Israeli soldiers, backed by tanks, heavy artillery, aircraft and warships, moved into the Hamas-controlled enclave late yesterday after 2,100 air strikes over 10 days failed to quash barrages of rockets fired from Gaza at Israel. Gaza fighters also infiltrated Israel by sea and through what Israel says is a network of tunnels dug under the border.
  • PBOC Seen Tightening as Citi Lifts GDP Outlook: China Credit. Signs that China's economic recovery is fueled by an escalation in the world's biggest corporate debt load are prompting swap traders to bet on tighter central bank monetary policy. The cost of one-year swaps, the fixed payment needed to receive the seven-day repurchase rate, has risen 39 basis points from July 11 to 4.12% and is set for the steepest five-day jump since June 21, 2013.
  • Most European Stocks Drop as Ukraine Conflict Deepens. Most European stocks fell, even as the benchmark index completed a weekly advance, amid concern that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia is deepening. Volvo (VOLVB) AB and Schibsted ASA dropped at least 5.4 percent each after posting second-quarter profit that missed analysts’ estimates. Air France-KLM and Ryanair Holdings Plc led a retreat among European travel stocks. Shire Plc rose 4 percent after AbbVie Inc. agreed to buy the drugmaker for 52.48 pounds ($89.80) a share. Ericsson AB posted the biggest rally since April 2011 after reporting a profit margin that beat forecasts. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost less than 0.1 percent to 339.66 at the close in London as three stocks fell for every two that climbed.
  • Crude Set for First Weekly Gain in a Month on Ukraine. WTI for August delivery dropped 24 cents to $102.95 a barrel at 12:26 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $103.94, the highest intraday level since July 8. The volume of all futures traded was 47 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day. Futures are up 2.1 percent this week.
  • In Bond Market Musical Chairs, Be Ready for Bids Halting. It’s hard to blame bond investors for being nervous. They accelerated withdrawals from the riskiest debt in the past week, yanking $2.3 billion from high-yield bond funds, the biggest outflow since June 2013, according to a Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) report. Wall Street’s largest bond dealers cut their net junk-bond holdings to $4.8 billion in the week ended July 9, the lowest level since the Federal Reserve began reporting the data in April 2013. While credit still shows signs of froth -- with new funds to buy junk-rated loans popping up left and right -- investors are increasingly anxious about when the market will turn. Their quickness to dump high-risk securities for the safest ones around shows a lack of faith that easy-money policies from central banks around the world are fueling sufficient economic growth to keep this rally going. Aside from lackluster growth, there’s also concern that markets will unravel as the Fed tries to withdraw its stimulus. Fed Chair Janet Yellen herself has said she sees signs of excessive risk-taking, particularly in the markets for bonds and loans rated below investment grade. “My nervousness about what is going on in the high-yield market is escalating,” Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Brean Capital LLC in New York said in a July 17 e-mailed note. “It is a bit like musical chairs. Everyone walking in a circle pretending not to be eyeing the chair, but scared that when the music stops, they won’t have a chair -- or, in this case, a bid.”
Wall Street Journal:
  • Bank of Italy Slashes 2014 Economic Growth Forecast. Central Bank Said Growth in Next Two Years Would Be Modest. The Bank of Italy dealt another blow to hopes of a convincing recovery in the country this year as it slashed its economic growth forecast and warned of "downside risk." The Bank of Italy said economic growth in the next two years would be modest, something the Italian government is hoping it can change. The central bank slashed its projection of Italy's gross domestic product growth rate for 2014 to 0.2% from its January forecast of a 0.7% rise, while it raised its 2015 forecast to an increase of 1.3% versus an earlier estimate of 1.0% growth.
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC: 
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
  • Exclusive: Morgan Stanley rebuilds in commodities trading. After more than a year of scaling back in commodities, Morgan Stanley (MS.N) is ready to expand. The Wall Street bank plans to hire about a dozen traders, sales staff and other professionals in the United States. It's building up commodities trading and financing businesses that can profit despite tougher regulations, people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
  • Further sanctions would have "chilling effect" on Russia -IIF. Further sanctions on Russia would have a "broader chilling effect" on the country and its companies that are already largely excluded from raising foreign capital, a lobbying group representing 500 world financial institutions and major banks warned on Friday.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.52%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -1.5% 2) Oil Service -.06% 3) Ag -.05%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • TGP, RP, CPHD, VOC, HUBG, BGS, CE, ROG, NUS, WSO, CFX, ALV, NVDA, JCI, ATHN, VFC, IBM, LH, SLB, BIS, KORS, TRW, ENS, CBS and NBL
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) NVDA 2) LAMR 3) CIEN 4) AMGN 5) GT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) NUS 2) VFC 3) NVDA 4) INTC 5) AMD
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +1.08%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Biotech +2.06% 2) Steel +1.95% 3) Networking +1.67%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SWKS, ERIC, YPF, WAL, GTIV, FCS, PBR, TQNT and RFMD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) GGP 2) NI 3) SWKS 4) ADT 5) GLW
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) IBM 2) SKYW 3) SLB 4) VZ 5) AMZN
Charts:

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg
  • Ukraine Says Malaysian Airliner Shot Down Near Russian Border. A Malaysia Airlines (MAS) jet was shot down over eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 people on board, in an attack that the government in Kiev blamed on pro-Russian rebels. The separatists denied the accusation. Ukraine’s state security service said it intercepted phone conversations among militants discussing the missile strike, which knocked Flight 17 from the sky about 30 kilometers (18 miles) from the Russian border. U.S. officials said the weapon probably was a Russian-made model used widely in Eastern Europe. The Boeing Co. 777 crashed en route to Kuala Lumpur from Amsterdam in the main battleground of Ukraine’s civil war, threatening to escalate tensions in Europe’s worst geopolitical crisis since the end of the Cold War. A European air-traffic control agency routed planes away from the region, which sits astride some of the busiest routes to and from Asia. 
  • Putin Cornered as Malaysia Jet Crash Shows Isolation on Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin’s intransigence over Ukraine risks turning him into a global pariah should the blame for downing a Malaysian Air jet with 298 passengers aboard fall on pro-Russia rebels in eastern Ukraine. The crash of the Boeing Co. (BA) 777 follows by less than 24 hours the imposition of new sanctions against Russia that targeted major energy companies and banks. While the rebels denied accusations by the Ukraine government that they shot down the flight, the U.S. said this week that the separatists were being supplied with more heavy weaponry from Russia. 
  • Israeli Ground Troops Move Into Gaza to Stop Hamas Rockets Fire. Israel sent soldiers and tanks into Gaza in a ground offensive aimed at stopping the barrage of missiles fired by Hamas and other Palestinian militants after a short-lived cease-fire collaped earlier in the day. Accompanied by heavy artillery, the troop movement last night into the Hamas-controlled coastal enclave marked the first significant Israeli ground operation in Gaza since 2009. It followed intensified aerial attacks in which more than 200 Gaza residents were killed. Palestinians launched some 1,250 rockets into Israel, killing one, with many intercepted by Israeli missile defenses. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed the Israel Defense Forces to begin the operation to “destroy the terror tunnels dug from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory,” according to a text message at 10:36 p.m. yesterday in Jerusalem. The goal is “restoring quiet to the citizens of Israel for an extended period, with significant damage to the infrastructure of Hamas and other terriorist organizations.” 
  • European Banks Seen Bowing to U.S. Russia Bans Amid Rising Fines. European banks, contending with escalating U.S. fines for sanctions violations, will likely bow to fresh bans imposed by the U.S. on financing Russian companies as the risks of dealing with the nation mount. The U.S. Treasury on July 16 named Russian companies to be barred from accessing U.S. equityor debt markets for new financings with maturities beyond 90 days. Lenders elsewhere may follow the sanctions, according to two European banking officials who spoke on condition of anonymity. 
  • China Home Prices Fall in Record Number of Cities on Price Cuts. China’s new-home prices fell in a record number of cities tracked by the government as developers cut prices to boost sales volume. Prices fell in 55 of the 70 cities last month from May, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement today, the most since January 2011 when the government changed the way it compiles the statistics. Prices in Shanghai and the southern city of Guangzhou fell 0.6 percent each from May, the biggest drop since January 2011, while they declined 0.4 percent in Shenzhen. Prices fell 1.7 percent in the eastern city of Hangzhou, the largest monthly decline among all the cities.
  • Government Bonds Rally Around the World on Demand for Safety. Government bonds rallied around the world, with a gauge of sovereign debt climbing to a 14-month high, as the shooting down of a Malaysia Airlines plane in Ukraine drove demand for the safest assets. An index of government bonds climbed to the highest level since May 2013, based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch data. The securities have returned 4.3 percent so far this year, recouping a loss from 2013. The aircraft was shot down over eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 people on board, in an attack the government in Kiev blamed on pro-Russian rebels. The separatists denied the accusation.
  • Kuroda Softens Yen Stance as Export Pain Evaporates: Currencies. Foreign-exchange traders detect a softening in Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s stance toward the stronger yen. While the currency has risen 4 percent this year to 101.22 per dollar, the central-bank chief signaled this week he’s satisfied with the current exchange rate. Kuroda told reporters in Tokyo the yen is no longer excessively strong and that the BOJ is on its way to meeting its inflation target. “He seems to be just ready to sit, wait, watch,” Sean Callow, a Sydney-based strategist at Westpac Banking Corp., said by phone on July 16. Westpac sees the yen climbing to 100 versus the greenback by the end of this year. 
  • Malaysian Air Drops as Ukraine Crash Follows Missing Flight 370. The stock lost 13 percent to 19.5 sen as of 9:04 a.m. in Kuala Lumpur, extending this year’s drop to 37 percent.
  • Asian Stocks Slip With Ringgit on Plane While Bonds Rise. Asian stocks fell, with shares in Kuala Lumpur dropping and the ringgit leading declines among emerging-market currencies after a Malaysia Airlines plane was downed in Ukraine. Bonds in the region rose with oil as Israel sending troops into Gaza added to global geopolitical concerns. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.6 percent by 10:03 a.m. in Tokyo, falling for the first time this week. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index lost 0.5 percent as Malaysian Airline System Bhd shares tumbled 16 percent. Japan’s Topix gauge slid 1.1 percent.
  • WTI Extends Biggest Gain in Month on Rising World Tension. Futures rose as much as 0.7 percent in New York, extending a 2 percent increase yesterday, the most since June 12. The Boeing Co. 777 crashed en route to Kuala Lumpur from Amsterdam in the main battleground of Ukraine’s civil war, threatening to escalate tensions in Europe’s worst geopolitical crisis since the end of the Cold War. Israel’s movement of troops and tanks into the coastal enclave marks the first significant ground operation in Gaza since 2009.
  • SEC Says House Insider Probe Involves 44 Funds, Entities. A regulatory insider-trading probe involving the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee and a top staff member also includes 44 hedge funds and other entities, according to a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing in Manhattan federal court
  • JPMorgan’s(JPM) Dimon Gets $37 Million of Crisis-Era Options. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM:US) will let Jamie Dimon collect about $37 million in stock options created during the financial crisis, as the board stands by its leader after risk-management lapses and billions of dollars in legal settlements. JPMorgan gave the chief executive officer 2 million stock-appreciation rights in January 2008, saying they would be available in five years if the board still deemed it appropriate. Last year, the firm delayed vesting by 18 months to address flawed internal controls exposed by botched derivatives bets.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Malaysia Airlines Crash in Ukraine: Streaming Coverage.
  • Malaysia Airlines Plane Was Hit by Surface-to-Air Missile, U.S. Officials Say. At Least 283 Passengers Were on Board Flight Bound for Kuala Lumpur From Amsterdam. A Malaysia Airlines 3786.KU -13.33% plane carrying 283 passengers and 15 crew crashed Thursday in the battle-torn east Ukraine region of Donetsk, where U.S. intelligence agencies say it was struck by a ground-to-air missile. The U.S. agencies are divided over whether the missile was launched by the Russian military or by pro-Russia separatist rebels, who officials say lack the expertise on their own to bring down a commercial airline in midflight. "All roads lead to the Russians to some degree," said a U.S. official.
  • Israel Launches Ground Invasion of Gaza. Aim is to Crush Hamas Militants. Israel launched an open-ended ground invasion of Gaza aimed at crushing Hamas militants after 10 days of aerial bombardment, sending thousands of troops with tanks and armored vehicles into the Palestinian territory. The operation began at about 10 p.m. local time Thursday after Palestinian militants fired more than 100 rockets into Israel at the end of a five-hour cease-fire meant to allow Gazans to restock on food and other... 
Fox News:
  • Israel launches large-scale ground operation in Gaza Strip. The Israeli military reportedly sent thousands of troops into the Gaza Strip Thursday as part of a large-scale ground operation aimed at destroying underground tunnels and other "terror infrastructure" used by Hamas to target the Jewish State. The army said in a statement late Thursday that after 10 days of Hamas attacks, it had "initiated a ground operation within the Gaza Strip." The army said the objective was to strike a "significant blow to Hamas' terror infrastructure."
CNBC:
  • Stockman: Russia could be the next black swan. (video) In an exclusive interview with "Futures Now," Stockman said the turmoil in Russia could spark the next series of black swan events and cause the S&P 500 to lose "hundreds" of points. "We're at the very edge of a bubble which has been inflating since early 2009, and as a result of that any time now we could be hit by something you don't expect like this incident in the Ukraine or anything else that will take the market down in a big way."
  • Google(GOOG) earnings: $6.08 per share, ex-items, vs. expected EPS of $6.24. Google reported earnings that missed expectations while revenue topped Wall Street estimates on Thursday. Shares rallied in extended hours trading. The Internet giant reported earnings of $6.08 per share, excluding one-time items, on revenue of $15.96 billion. Analysts had expected the company to report earnings excluding items of $6.24 a share on nearly $15.62 billion in revenue, according to a consensus estimate from Thomson Reuters.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider: 
Reuters: 
Telegraph:
Evening Recommendations
Oppenheimer:
  • Rated (FLIR) Outperform.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.0 +1.0 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 72.50 +2.0 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.42%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.14%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  -.08%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (ALV)/1.55
  • (BK).56
  • (GE)/.39
  • (HON)/1.36
  • (IPG)/.25
  • (JCI)/.83
  • (KSU)/1.18
  • (LH)/1.77
  • (ERIC)/1.02
  • (VFC)/.35
  • (BMI)/.57
  • (FHN)/.17
Economic Releases
9:55 am EST
  • Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for July is estimated to rise to 83.0 versus 82.5 in June.
10:00 am EST
  • Leading Indicators for June are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The G-20 Meetings and the (BURL) annual meeting could impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Thursday, July 17, 2014

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Escalating Russia-Ukraine/Mideast Tensions, Rising Emerging Markets/European Debt Angst, Hawkish Fed Commentary, Biotech/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.22 +20.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.04 -.32%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.01 +2.21%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.52 +11.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 -44.85%
  • Total Put/Call .95 +17.28%
  • NYSE Arms 1.02 +48.65% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.03 +3.65%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.35 +4.10%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 35.20 -1.61%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 71.99 +1.91%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 242.82 +3.60%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 304.68 n/a
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 22.75 +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.0 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1 basis point
  • Yield Curve 201.0 -4.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $97.5/Metric Tonne -.51%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -16.7 -3.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.50 -2.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -100 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -30 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging markets shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long