Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Ukraine Army Advances as EU Plans Tougher Putin Sanctions. Ukraine’s army advanced on a last main separatist stronghold as the U.S. said Russian President Vladimir Putin is poised to give the rebels heavy weapons and European Union leaders considered their toughest sanctions yet on Russia. Ukrainian troops are battling insurgents in the town of Horlivka, about 20 kilometers (12 miles) northeast of the regional capital Donetsk, a city of 1 million people where rebels retreated after abandoning other positions earlier this month. Taking Horlivka would open the way to attack one of their last redoubts, Ukrainian Defense Ministry spokesman Andriy Lysenko said yesterday in Kiev. “Fighting to take over Horlivka is going on,” he told journalists. “Donetsk will be next.” CNN reported that long lines of cars jammed roads leading south from the city yesterday as residents tried to flee.

• Photos Said to Show Russia Shelling of Ukraine Released. Satellite photos show that Russia has shelled across the border into Ukraine, the Obama administration said, as Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said signs of heavy fighting prevented investigators from reaching the crash site of Malaysian Air Flight 17. “Russian forces have fired across the border at Ukrainian military forces,” the State Department said in a statement accompanying the photos released yesterday. The pictures also purportedly show “Russia-backed separatists have used heavy artillery, provided by Russia, in attacks on Ukrainian forces from inside Ukraine.” Ukraine’s forces were attacked twice from Russian territory, the Ukrainian defense ministry said in a posting on Facebook, without giving further details.

• Kerry’s Diplomacy Falls Short to End Gaza Fighting. It took U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry five days in the Middle East to negotiate a 12-hour pause in the bloody fighting between Hamas and Israel. Prospects for extending that humanitarian halt in the Gaza war had evaporated by the time Kerry landed in Washington shortly after midnight yesterday following a sleep-deprived week in which he served as a round-the-clock, Cairo-based diplomatic call center for Israel, Egypt and intermediaries to Hamas. 

• ECB Opaque-Asset Review Seen Targeting Deutsche Bank, BNP. Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) and BNP Paribas SA (BNP), which hold almost half of the hard-to-value assets on the books of the euro area’s 10 biggest banks, are facing a reality check that could impose losses. As part of its review of 128 lenders, the European Central bank is studying less-actively traded loans and securitized products that banks value with minimal external data. The unprecedented scope of the exercise gives the ECB, which is taking on a supervisory role this year, insight that has eluded investors: comparing how the biggest investment banks value complex assets. 

• Australian Regulators Watch as Debt Drives Up Prices: Mortgages. Central banks from Scandinavia to the U.K. to New Zealand are sounding the alarm about soaring mortgage debt and trying to curb risky lending. In Australia, where borrowing is surging, regulators are just watching. Australian household debt is at a 25-year high, according to statistics bureau figures, and a government inquiry this month found housing to be a significant source of risk to the financial system. The average mortgage is at least four times household income in almost 80 percent of the country, research by Digital Finance Analytics shows.

• Asian Stocks Swing as Oil Falls; Soybeans Lead Crop Gains. Asian stocks fluctuated, leaving the regional index near a six-year high, with the Federal Reserve meeting this week to debate the outlook for U.S. interest rates. Oil dropped while Australian bonds climbed with crop futures. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed by 9:56 a.m. in Tokyo.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Push for Gaza Truce Yields a Few Hours of Calm. Diplomacy Stymied by Divisions Between Washington and its Mideast Allies. After six days of exhaustive meetings and stops in Cairo, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Ramallah and Paris, Secretary of State John Kerry came home Sunday with only a few fitful hours of peace in Gaza that proved fleeting. Israel and the Palestinian territory's Hamas rulers observed a 12-hour humanitarian cease-fire on Saturday. But they couldn't agree to extend the truce on Sunday and the cycle of attacks resumed.

• In China, Warnings Flash Despite Better Data. Economic Growth Has Picked Up, but Other Figures Suggest Optimism May Be Premature. When Monte Burnham, the president of Birmingham, Ala.-based Foundry Manufacturing Solutions, recently visited Tianjin, China, he was pleasantly surprised to find its air more breathable than during his previous stay. "Then I realized, the smelters weren't running," recalled Mr. Burnham, referring to the northern port city's giant steel plants, which until recently had been delivering economic growth rates as high as 16% to..

• J.P. Morgan(JPM) Questioned for Conflicts of Interest. Firm Has Responded by Changing Its Disclosures.

• The Danger of Too Loose, Too Long by Richard W. Fisher. With an improving labor market and an uptick in inflation, the danger now is to wait too long to tighten. I have grown increasingly concerned about the risks posed by current monetary policy. First, we are experiencing financial excess that is of our own making. There is a lot of talk about "macroprudential supervision" as a way to prevent financial excess from creating financial instability. But macroprudential supervision is something of a Maginot Line: It can be circumvented. Relying upon it to prevent financial instability...
  

Fox News:

• Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu vows Israel will do 'whatever is necessary' in fight with Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday vowed to do "whatever is necessary" in the country's latest weeks-long battle with Islamic militant group Hamas.

Zero Hedge:

• High Yield Credit Market Flashing Red As Outflows Surge. (graph)

• Did The "Dash For Trash" Just End? (graph)

• Company In Which Joe Biden's Son Is Director Prepares To Drill Shale Gas In East Ukraine.

• ObamaFraud: GAO Study Finds Almost All Fake Applicants Are Approved For Subsidized ObamaCare.

• "It Can't Be A Bubble!" (graph)

• Can Germany Carry Europe’s Weight In The Next Financial Crisis?

• America's Lost Decade: Typical Household Wealth Has Plunged 36% Since 2003.

• Runaway Ebola-Infected Woman Dies As US Doctor Tests Positive For Virus.

• The Italian Government Owes Over $100 Billion To Private Suppliers.

• China Expands Live-Fire Gulf Of Tonkin Drill; Warns Of Massive Flight Disruptions.

• John Hussman: "Make No Mistake - This Is An Equity Bubble, And A Highly Advanced One". (graph)

Business Insider:

• An Obamacare Architect Said Something In 2012 That Could Unravel The Law.

• Tesla(TSLA) Has Had Serious Problems Delivering Cars To China, And Customers Aren't Happy.

• This Video Shows ISIS Blowing Up The Tomb Of Jonah.

• Top Iranian Commanders Are On The Front Lines Of Fighting In Iraq.

• Hezbollah Tells Israel: Continuing In Gaza Is 'Suicide'.

• US Isolationism Is Feeding A Global Free-For-All. If democratic and humanistic values can be so readily abandoned internationally, and by the states that best embody them, then all talk of a global order based on international law and respect for human rights is an illusion. It means states will accept a free-for-all, a global state of nature, where no one prevents barbarous crimes. Americans and Europeans may not realize that this is what they are contributing to, but they are doing so unambiguously.   

• Here Are The Details Of Kerry's Ceasefire Proposal — And Why Israel Turned It Down.

• Free Exchange: Sun, Wind and Drain. Wind and solar power are even more expensive than is commonly thought. 

• Goldman Sachs(GS) Just Downgraded Stocks.

• ISIS Has Female Members — And They're Terrorizing Women Who Won't Follow The Caliphate's Rules.

• US Evacuates Embassy In Tripoli, Libya Amid Growing Violence.

• China's President Has Only Begun To Take Down The Tigers And Swat The Flies In His Historic Corruption Crackdown.

• Google(GOOG) May Be Breaking Into The Phablet Market In An Enormous Way.

• The SEC's New Rules For Money-Markets Are 'One Of The Most Flawed And Controversial' Decisions Ever.

• More Of Moscow's Men Are Taking Top Rebel Posts In Eastern Ukraine.

• The Fed Has Overstepped Its Bounds.

• Hamas And North Korea Are Working On A Secret Arms Deal.

• Russian Rebels Involved In Shooting Down MH17 Were From 4,200 Miles Away. The motivation for nearly half of Sapper's crew to travel all the way across Russia and into Ukraine is unclear. But the notion that they traveled to Ukraine on their own, without guidance from Moscow, is very unlikely.

Reuters:

• Goldman(GS) mortgage deal could reach $1.25B: Source. A deal to resolve a U.S. regulator's claims against Goldman Sachs over mortgage-backed securities sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac leading up to the financial crisis could cost the bank between $800 million and $1.25 billion, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Financial Times:

• Argentina braces for sovereign debt default. Santiago Medina frowns as he recalls Argentina’s economic crisis at the time of its 2001 sovereign debt default, when he lost his job and took part in street protests. “Those were tough times,” says Mr Medina, who sells newspapers at a small kiosk beside a traffic-clogged avenue in Buenos Aires. “I don’t understand why the government wants to risk default again. It’s irresponsible: people are going to suffer.”

Der Spiegel:

• German Poll Says 52% Back Russia Sanctions Over Jobs. Most Germans would support sanctions even if they endangered jobs, citing a TNS-Infratest poll. 39% would oppose sanctions if jobs were endangered.

China Securities Journal:

• China Property Curb Easing Won't Stimulate Market. The easing of property purchase curbs in some Chinese cities won't stimulate the market as the government faces problems with excess inventories and growth, reporter Zhang Min said in a front-page commentary. The government is overly reliant on land sales for fiscal revenue.

Xinhua:

• China Growth Won't Show 'Strong' Momentum. Chinese economic growth won't show "strong" momentum in 2015-2016, according to a commentary. China faces possible risks in real estate, finance and local government debt. China exports may have a hard time growing quickly.

Weekend Recommendations

Barron's:

• Bullish commentary on (DOW), (TUP), (KEY), (GOOG), (WLP), (C), (THRX) and (CIT).

• Bearish commentary on (WMT) and (LXU).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.0 +3.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 70.0 -1.0 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures +.20%.

• S&P 500 futures -.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (TSN)/.78

• (CALM)/1.18

• (CMI)/2.39

• (EMN)/1.84

• (ADVS)/.34

• (HLF)/1.57

• (JEC)/.86

Economic Releases
9:45 am EST

• Preliminary Markit US Services PMI for July is estimated to fall to 59.8 versus 61.0 in June.

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales for June are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +6.1% gain in May.

10:30 am EST

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for July is estimated to rise to 12.0 versus 11.4 in June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Jobless Rate and $29B 2Y T-Note Auction could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by real estate and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on escalating Mideast/Ukraine-Russia tensions, high-yield debt bubble worries, technical selling, yen strength, profit-taking and escalating Fed rate hike concerns. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 1,978.34 unch.*

 The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,978.34 unch.

• DJIA 16,960.5 -.82%

• NASDAQ 4,459.56 +.39%

• Russell 2000 1,144.72 -.60%

• S&P 500 High Beta 33.31 +.24%

• Wilshire 5000 20,626.50 -.05%

• Russell 1000 Growth 916.38 +.10%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,000.07 -.06%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 460.63 -.82%

• Solactive US Cyclical 136.63 -.46%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 975.16 +.26%

• Transports 8,428.15 +.51%

• Utilities 556.51 -.47%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 108.08 +3.13%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 44.68 +1.41%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,178.78 +.50%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 969.84 +.01%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 228,227 -.17%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 344 +393

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 44.74 -8.17%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 371,444 -7.05%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,642,836 -4.58%

• Total Put/Call .94 +4.44%

• OEX Put/Call 2.52 +170.97%

• ISE Sentiment 88.0 -6.38%

• NYSE Arms 1.02 +4.08%

• Volatility(VIX) 12.69 +5.22%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.74 +11.7%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.46 +1.87%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 5.89 -1.17%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,664.26 +.81%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.563 Trillion -.09%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.951 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 29.6 -8.4%

• AAII % Bears 29.9 +5.1%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 298.34 +.31%

• Crude Oil 102.09 -.77%

• Reformulated Gasoline 286.53 +.21%

• Natural Gas 3.78 -4.06%

• Heating Oil 291.57 +2.44%

• Gold 1,303.30 -.62%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 206.57 +2.86%

• Copper 24.05 +1.58%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 356.67 USD/Ton -.04%

• China Iron Ore Spot 94.30 USD/Ton -2.38%

• Lumber 325.50 -.28%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,323.77 -.12%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.2% -20 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .2626 -1.61%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 126.81 +.40%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -24.50 -6.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.6 +4.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 38.0% chance of no change, 62.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 7/30

• US Dollar Index 81.03 +.65%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.78 -.19%

• Yield Curve 198.0 -2.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.47% -1.0 basis point

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.368 Trillion +.29%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 15.50 -2.12%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 165.0 +1.85%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 33.77 -7.21%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 71.07 -.80%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 203.05 +1.78%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 87.50 +.57%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 345.31 -1.83%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 221.16 +7.19%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 300.69 -2.24%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27% +5.0 basis points

• TED Spread 21.0 -1.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.75 +1.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 59.15 +.57%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 67.50 -2.33%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 245.05 +2.91%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 83.0 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $2.858 Trillion +1.78%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,025.90 -.20%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 302,000 -7,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.9% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.13% unch.

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 349.40 +2.43%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 37.6 +.1 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.90% -20 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.54/gallon -.05/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 732.0 unch.

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,092.24 +.38%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 +9.09%

• Rail Freight Carloads 267,675 +4.46%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +.2%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -1.3%

Leading Sectors

• Hospitals +6.4%

• Disk Drives +4.2%

• Computer Hardware +2.7%

• Biotech +1.6%

• Computer Services +1.6%

Lagging Sectors

• Education -2.2% 

• Homebuilders -2.8%

• Coal -3.2%

• Oil Tankers -4.0%

• Semis -4.2%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (20)

• PBYI, TRLA, INO, ISRG, STLD, VDSI, SWKS, CMG, PII, CROX, CIT, SKX, HLX, FBRC, HLF, RFMD, EMC, WAT, PETS and CHE

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (11)

• HXL, RMBS, GOV, BXS, CNMD, TUP, UIS, CPHD, XLNX, DFRG and RP
  

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Escalating Russia-Ukraine/Mideast Tensions, Earnings Worries, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Homebuilding/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.59 +6.33%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.73 -.25%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 5.89 +1.55%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.47 +2.32%

• ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 +11.96%

• Total Put/Call .92 +1.10%

• NYSE Arms .95 +32.88% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.14 +.41%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.50 +1.34%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 33.77 -3.13%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 70.96 +1.31%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 247.66 +3.36%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 309.69 -.91%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 unch.

• TED Spread 20.75 -.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.75 -2.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 198.0 -4.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $94.30/Metric Tonne +.75%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -24.50 +1.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.6 +.1 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 +3.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -10 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/retail/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Ukraine Trades Accusations With Russia of Shelling. Ukraine and Russia traded accusations of cross-border shelling as tensions between the ex-Soviet neighbors intensified. “Ukraine’s border checkpoint at Marynivka in the Donetsk region was attacked from Russian territory by mortars, Grad missile systems and artillery,” at 6 p.m. and 11 p.m. local time yesterday, damaging infrastructure and equipment, a Ukrainian Defense Ministry spokesman, Andriy Lysenko, said in Kiev today. Rossiya 24 state television said about 40 artillery shells landed in the Rostov region of southern Russia from across the border and one woman may have been injured. It showed pictures of unexploded shells near a border post. While both countries have swapped such accusations before, the latest allegations come as the pro-Russian rebel stronghold of Donetsk, less than 100 kilometers (60 miles) from the border, awaits a possible onslaught by Ukrainian government forces.

• EU Vows Russia Action as Merkel Said to See Sanctions Next Week. The European Union said it’ll work “swiftly” to hit Russian industries with sanctions as support grows for the package of trade restrictions outlined this week. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is pushing her colleagues to sign off on the measures by the end of next week and is prepared to accept curbs on her country’s technology exports to win support, according to two German government officials, who asked not to be named because the discussions are private.

• Australia Risks Tension With Ukraine Rebels Sending Armed Police. Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s plan to deploy armed police officers to the site of the Malaysian Air crash risks increasing tension in the Ukrainian territory held by Russian-backed rebels, according to political analysts based in Berlin and Brussels. 

• Russia Unexpectedly Raises Key Rate Third Time on Ukraine. Russia’s central bank unexpectedly increased borrowing costs for a third time this year as the intensifying conflict over Ukraine and the threat of wider sanctions squeeze the economy and undercut the ruble. The central bank in Moscow increased its one-week auction rate to 8 percent from 7.5 percent, according to a statement on its website today.

• Norway on High Alert Amid Warnings of Attack Next Week. Police in Norway are on high alert after receiving intelligence that nationals returning from Syria may be plotting a terrorist attack within days against the Scandinavian country. Information obtained by Norway’s security service, PST, suggests an attack could be imminent, the unit’s chief, Benedicte Bjoernland, said yesterday. Authorities have strengthened their presence at Norway’s borders, airports and train stations, and police in all districts are at a heightened state of preparedness.

• China Credit Trust Delays Payment on $210 Million Product. China Credit Trust Co. delayed payments on a 1.3 billion-yuan ($210 million) high-yield trust product backed by coal-mining assets after the borrower failed to raise funds to repay investors. The Beijing-based company will extend the maturity of Credit Equals Gold No. 2, which was scheduled to expire today, according to a statement distributed to investors in the product and seen by Bloomberg News. China Credit Trust aims to sell assets held by the product within 15 months to repay investors, the July 24 statement showed.

• Bond ETFs Swelling in Europe as Trading Debt Gets Tougher. Bond buyers are pouring record amounts of money into exchange-traded funds in Europe that buy debt as central bank largess boosts demand and makes investors less willing to part with their fixed-income assets. Investors deposited more than $16 billion into ETFs that purchase debt from high-yielding corporate notes to sovereign bonds, almost quadruple the amount in the same period last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. BlackRock Inc. (BLK), the world’s biggest provider of ETFs, estimates bond-fund inflows will climb to about $20 billion by year-end.

• European Stocks Fall as LVMH Leads Luxury Retailers Lower. European stocks fell the most in a week, extending losses in the final half hour of trading, as companies including LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA and Statoil (STL) ASA posted earnings that missed forecasts. LVMH fell the most since August 2011 after the world’s largest luxury-goods company also said demand weakened in Asia. Air France-KLM Group climbed 2.6 percent after reporting second-quarter profit that beat estimates. Sky Deutschland AG added 1.4 percent after British Sky Broadcasting Group Plc offered to buy the German broadcaster. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc rallied the most in more than four years after saying first-half profit almost doubled. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 0.7 percent to 341.95 at the close of trading.

Wall Street Journal: 

• West Bank Protests Grow as Israel, Hamas Fighting in Gaza Rages. Palestinian Death Toll in Gaza Reaches 817, and Another Israeli soldier is Killed.

MarketWatch.com:

• Junk bond fears rise as outflows accelerate. Most money leaves high-yield funds since June 2013. (graph)

CNBC:

• More than 15,000 Russian troops amassed along border with Ukraine: US ambassador to NATO.

• Goldman(GS), other economists shave Q2 GDP expectations.

ZeroHedge:

• Ebola Victim On The Run In West Africa Capital.

• Pentagon Says Russia Preparing To Transfer "Powerful Weapons" To Ukraine.

• David Einhorn On The M&A Bubble And "Dreams" As An Investment Thesis.

• Are We Addicted to Failure? (graph)

• Number Of French Jobless Rise To New Record.

• 11.7% Of The World's At War: Global Geopolitical Risk Mapped.

• Q2 Closes With A Durable Goods Whimper And 1.6% Y/Y Drop; Core Capex Orders Revised Much Lower; Shipments Tumble. (graph)

• Europe Unveils Preliminary Sanctions Against Russia.

Business Insider:

• Europe Is So Dependent On Russia's Oil That Putin Is Getting A Free Pass For MH17.

• Israel Just Rejected Kerry's Ceasefire Proposal.

• Chinese Demand For Luxury Goods Hits A Major Slump.

• The Current Situation In Ukraine Is Eerily Similar To The Crisis That Started WWI.

• El Pollo Loco Shares Soar On Market Debut.

• Wall Street Legend Alan 'Ace' Greenberg Has Died.

• Jim Chanos Has A Whole New Reason For Going Dark On China. (video)

Reuters:

• Hedge fund Greenlight details short bets, still likes Apple(AAPL).

• Stock funds worldwide post $5 bln outflows in latest week -BofA.

Telegraph:

• IMF fears ultra-low rates are fuelling asset bubbles. Chief economist Olivier Blanchard says fund is watching financial markets “like a hawk” because world economy is still too fragile to withstand interest rate rises.