Indices
- Russell 2000 1,146.92 -1.18%
- S&P 500 High Beta 33.99 +.21%
- Wilshire 5000 20,921.63 +.87%
- Russell 1000 Growth 936.30 +.92%
- Russell 1000 Value 1,010.42 +1.19%
- S&P 500 Consumer Staples 468.82 +1.49%
- Solactive US Cyclical 137.99 +1.10%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 986.31 -.20%
- Transports 8,633.83 +.95%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 112.34 +1.66%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 43.78 -.59%
- HFRX Equity Hedge 1,182.65 -.08%
- HFRX Equity Market Neutral 973.24 -.07%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 228,598 -.03%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -59 +150
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 40.0 unch.
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 297,281 -.90%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,528,614 -1.60%
- Total Put/Call .82 -6.82%
- ISE Sentiment 81.0 -33.06%
- Volatility(VIX) 12.11 -9.02%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.77 -9.79%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.28 -5.94%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.30 +.55%
- Smart Money Flow Index 11,569.46 +1.65%
- ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.576 Trillion -.65%
- ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$1.328 Billion
Futures Spot Prices
- Reformulated Gasoline 261.14 +3.84%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 196.38 -1.15%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 359.0 USD/Ton +.65%
- China Iron Ore Spot 81.70 USD/Ton -.37%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,172.37 -3.0%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.7% unch.
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0786 +25.4%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 128.64 +.23%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.0 -16.2 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -39.70 +5.7 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -21.60 -8.7 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 36.0% chance of no change, 64.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 9/17
- US Dollar Index 84.74 +.67%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.10 +.56%
- Yield Curve 201.0 -4.0 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.57% -4.0 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.408 Trillion +.65%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.87 +6.50%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 160.0 +1.20%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 26.80 -3.63%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 62.60 -2.54%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 221.64 +1.26%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 78.0 -5.45%
- Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 324.11 -.48%
- Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 238.82 +.28%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 305.38 -1.14%
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.03% -9.0 basis points
- TED Spread 22.25 -.25 basis point
- 2-Year Swap Spread 24.0 +.25 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.25 +2.75 basis points
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 56.20 -5.55%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 56.56 -3.79%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 258.76 +2.59%
- CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 82.0 -.5 basis point
- M1 Money Supply $2.861 Trillion +1.14%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,050.80 +.10%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 299,500 -4,500
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.8% -10 basis points
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.23% +11 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 352.90 +7.85%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 37.s +.7 point
- Weekly Retail Sales +4.20% -70.0 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $3.36/gallon -.05/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 1,089 -7.79%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,104.76 -.87%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 -11.11%
- Rail Freight Carloads 279,052 +16.69%
Best Performing Style
Worst Performing Style
Leading Sectors
Lagging Sectors
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (21)
- AVNR, CNCE, AUXL, CNVR, GRT, ULTA, EPIQ, TGTX, APOG, AVID, QDEL, DD, ALR, BBG, TAP, DRC, TNET, PODD, GDOT, NUE and HDS
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (23)
- AGNC, HCN, FR, SKX, DDR, TEN, MDU, DEI, ADBE, ALOG, NEWM, BRC, EPR, RTRX, CTRE, OI, WPG, RATE, UVV, PETX, PIR, RAX and BBSI
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 12.16 +1.08%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.99 -.44%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.30 -.41%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.01 +3.09%
- ISE Sentiment Index 75.0 -44.0%
- Total Put/Call .80 -12.09%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.34 -1.29%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.66 -1.27%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.90 -3.21%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 62.60 -1.44%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 221.23 -.66%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 305.38 -1.51%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 24.0 -.25 basis point
- TED Spread 23.0 +1.0 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.25 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
- Yield Curve 202.0 -4.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $81.70/Metric Tonne -1.57%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.00 +.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -21.60 unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.03 unch.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -75 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating unh. open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Europe’s Restive Regions Undeterred by Scotland’s ‘No’ Vote. Scotland’s decision to stick with the U.K. has thrilled European
leaders without deterring independence movements across the European
Union. While mainstream politicians expressed relief that
Scottish voters rejected going it alone, leaders of the Flemish
nationalists in Belgium, the Catalans in Spain and Italy’s Venetians
said they still have momentum on their side.
- Putin Sanctions at Economic Tipping Point as Markets Fray. Russia’s ruble, bonds and stocks
rallied on March 18, a day after the European Union announced
sanctions against the nation as President Vladimir Putin prepared to annex Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula.
Fast-forward six months and escalating EU and U.S. penalties and the
ruble is at a record low, Russian banks pay the most on record to gain
dollar funding and government bonds have suffered the biggest losses
among emerging markets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The
Micex Index of
stocks is down 6 percent from this year’s high on June 24.
- Islamic State Advance Forces Thousands of Syrian Kurds to Flee. A rapid advance by Islamic State militants forced Turkey to
open its border with Syria today to about 4,000 Kurdish refugees who had
been denied entry for the past two days. Hundreds of refugees
streamed across a border checkpoint near the Turkish town of Suruc amid
gunfire and a mortar round striking a village on the Syrian side, live
CNNTurk television footage showed. Islamic State are within two
kilometers of the Turkish border, CNNTurk said.
- Ebola Worst-Case Scenario Has More Than 500,000 Cases. The Ebola outbreak in West Africa could spread to hundreds
of thousands more people by the end of January, according to an estimate
under development by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention that puts one worst-case scenario at 550,000 or more
infections. The report, scheduled to be released next week, was
described by two people familiar with its contents, who asked to remain
anonymous because it isn’t yet public.
- Dollar Heads for Longest Rally Since 1967 on Divergence. The dollar is poised for its longest stretch of gains since
Lyndon Johnson was in the White House after the Federal Reserve signaled
an end to unprecedented monetary stimulus measures next year. The
U.S. Dollar Index gained for a 10th straight week, the longest since at
least March 1967, when Johnson was in the fourth year of his
presidency. The yen fell to a six-year low as the Bank of Japan pledged
to maintain stimulus to stave off deflation, and the euro reached the
weakest in 14 months as the European Central Bank offered a loan
program.
- Copper Drops as Dollar's Surge Erodes Commodity Demand. Copper futures fell for the third
straight day as the dollar’s rally cut demand for raw materials
as alternative assets. A measure of the greenback against six major
currencies
headed for the 10th straight weekly increase, the longest rally
since at least March 1967. The Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 raw
materials touched the lowest in more than five years, and a gauge of the
six main metals traded in London dropped to a 12-week low.
- Fisher Says Alibaba IPO Selling Into ‘Rich’ Stock Market. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
President Richard Fisher said Alibaba Group Holding Inc.’s
record-large initial public offering today was tapping a stock
market the U.S. central bank has helped reach an all-time high. “He is of course selling into a market that is very rich.
We’ve helped make it so at the Federal Reserve,” Fisher told
Fox Business Network, referring to Alibaba founder Jack Ma.
- Lacker Says He Opposes Fed Plan to Hold Mortgage-Backed Assets. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
President Jeffrey Lacker said he couldn’t fully support the
central bank’s revised exit strategy released this week because he opposes a measure to hold mortgage-backed securities. “I believe this approach unnecessarily prolongs our interference in the allocation of credit,” he said in a statement released on the Richmond Fed’s website today. Lacker will be a voting member next year on the Federal Open Market
Committee.
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
Financial Times:
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Gold & Silver -3.01% 2) Alt Energy -2.13% 3) Gaming -2.01%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- BXMT, YHOO, RHT, SBLK, ORCL, CRR, SAP, KWEB, SDRL, MGA, WPRT, ERF, HSII, USLV, INVN, AVNR, VMI, IBKR, YRCW, OFIX, JD, SHLD, JOE, BBSI, SHLD, GDOT and TIBX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) ORCL 2) DXJ 3) YHOO 4) BBBY 5) MDT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) YHOO 2) JD 3) ORCL 4) KEY 5) CAT
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Utilities +.71% 2) Restaurants +.43% 3) Hospitals +.34%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) MWE 2) EXC 3) MAS 4) EPI 5) PFE
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) DRC 2) CNQR 3) TWTR 4) AMZN 5) MCD
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Scots Independence Counting Begin as U.K. Hangs in Balance. Preliminary
results in Scotland’s independence referendum put the “no” side ahead,
as one pollster and a senior government official called victory for the
campaign to keep the country in the U.K. With the U.K.’s future hanging in the
balance through the night, Clackmannanshire became the first of
Scotland’s 32 local authorities to declare, giving the result to the
Better Together campaign by 54 percent to 46 percent for “yes.” Orkney
followed, with 67 percent ``no'' to 33 percent ``yes,'' then Shetland,
by 64 percent to 36 percent for ``yes.''
- LIVE RESULTS: The Scottish Independence Vote.
- Putin's Bullying Gets Scarier and Subtler.
- Terror ‘Chatter’ Prompts Alert at Australian Parliament.
Police stepped up security at Australia’s parliament to guard against a terrorist attack, as
authorities investigate an alleged Islamic State beheading plot.
- Pound Jumps With U.K. Futures on Scotland as Crops Drop.
The pound jumped to a two-week high, U.K. share-index futures rose and
Treasuries fell as early results showed Scotland voting to reject
independence. Asian equities (MXAP) climbed with contracts on the
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index on signs of U.S. economic strength, and
the yen fell. The pound gained 0.6 percent to $1.6495 by 10:58 a.m. in
Tokyo, the highest since Sept. 3, and FTSE 100 Index futures added 0.7
percent. The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed three basis points
while S&P 500 futures added 0.2 percent following another record in
New York. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2
percent.
- Commodities Drop to 5-Year Low as Fed Boosts Rate Outlook.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 futures dropped as much
as 1.3 percent to 120.4562, the lowest level since July 2009,
and was last at 120.4843. The gauge has lost 4.2 percent in 2014
and is set for a fourth year of declines. Diesel decreased to a
two-year low, while gold slipped to the lowest level since
January. Wheat fell to the least since 2010 on the outlook for
growing global output.
- Investors Withdraw $1.2 Billion from Junk-Bond Funds. Investors pulled $1.2 billion from U.S. funds that buy high-yield bonds,
the largest weekly outflow since a record $7.1 billion during the first
week of August, according to data provider Lipper.
Wall Street Journal:
- U.S. Tracks Threats Against West by Al Qaeda Affiliate in Syria. Concerns That Too Much Focus is on Islamic State. The U.S. is tracking multiple terror plots based out of Syria that
target the West—threats that current and former intelligence officials
say have been traced to al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate and not to Islamic
State, the extremist group that has seized the world's attention. Disclosures
about the plots, which include bombings, are raising new questions
about whether U.S. military strategy focusing on Islamic State
militants...
- Polls Close in Scottish Independence Vote. First 2 Districts to Report Ballot Results Choose to Stay in U.K. Voters in Scotland on Thursday decided whether to break up the U.K.
after 307 years, in a historic referendum pitting a vision of Scottish
independence against potential economic turmoil.
- U.S. Treasury Market Goes Off Script. Gap Between Short- and Long-Term Yields Narrows.
- The Unwisdom of Barack Obama. Is he weak? Arrogant? Ambivalent? Don't overthink the president.
- Alibaba's(BABA) Political Risk. The giant IPO is a business triumph, but Beijing's blessing can be fleeting.
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.0 -.5 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 63.50 -1.0 basis point.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.45%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- The Leading Index for August is estimated to rise .4% versus a +.9% gain in July.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Canadian CPI and (CAG) annual meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrials and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
