Indices
- Russell 2000 1,119.33 -2.40%
- S&P 500 High Beta 33.42 -1.68%
- Wilshire 5000 20,596.10 -1.56%
- Russell 1000 Growth 925.20 -1.19%
- Russell 1000 Value 992.28 -1.80%
- S&P 500 Consumer Staples 465.18 -.78%
- Solactive US Cyclical 135.67 -1.68%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 971.68 -1.48%
- Transports 8,484.91 -1.72%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 111.07 -1.13%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 42.54 -2.84%
- HFRX Equity Hedge 1,181.48 -.10%
- HFRX Equity Market Neutral 975.37 +.22%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 225,081 -1.54%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -773 -714
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 42.31 +5.78%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 296,052 -.41%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,480,629 -3.14%
- Total Put/Call 1.12 +36.59%
- OEX Put/Call 2.44 +287.30%
- ISE Sentiment 82.0 +1.23%
- Volatility(VIX) 14.85 +22.63%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.74 +15.57%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.66 +5.51%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.80 +6.85%
- Smart Money Flow Index 11,347.14 -1.92%
- ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.591 Trillion +.59%
- ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$1.980 Billion
Futures Spot Prices
- Reformulated Gasoline 266.19 +2.40%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 193.82 -1.30%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 359.0 USD/Ton unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 78.60 USD/Ton -3.79%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,158.91 -1.10%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.1% +40.0 basis points
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1221 +2.0%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 128.71 +.05%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.20 +6.2 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -45.0 -5.3 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.80 +4.8 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 36.0% chance of no change, 64.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 9/17
- US Dollar Index 85.64 +1.0%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.72 -.91%
- Yield Curve 195.0 -6.0 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.53% -4.0 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.418 Trillion +.22%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.54 -1.94%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 170.0 +6.25%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 28.08 +4.79%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 69.12 +10.41%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 231.13 +4.28%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 79.50 +1.92%
- Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 346.84 +7.01%
- Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 239.82 +.42%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 310.85 +1.8%
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.97% -6.0 basis points
- TED Spread 23.0 +.75 basis point
- 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 -1.25 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.0 +2.25 basis points
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 65.79 +17.07%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 63.11 +11.58%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 263.54 +1.85%
- CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 82.50 +.5 basis point
- M1 Money Supply $2.893 Trillion +1.27%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,057.70 +.60%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 298,500 -1,000
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.8% unch.
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.20% -3 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 338.40 -4.11%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 35.5 -1.5 points
- Weekly Retail Sales +4.10% -10.0 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $3.34/gallon -.02/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 1,038 -3.44%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,104.76 unch.
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.50 -12.50%
- Rail Freight Carloads 279,777 +.26%
Best Performing Style
Worst Performing Style
Leading Sectors
Lagging Sectors
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (21)
- AVNR, CNCE, AUXL, CNVR, GRT, ULTA, EPIQ, TGTX, APOG, AVID, QDEL, DD, ALR, BBG, TAP, DRC, TNET, PODD, GDOT, NUE and HDS
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (23)
- AGNC, HCN, FR, SKX, DDR, TEN, MDU, DEI, ADBE, ALOG, NEWM, BRC, EPR, RTRX, CTRE, OI, WPG, RATE, UVV, PETX, PIR, RAX and BBSI
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Higher
- Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
- Volume: Slightly Above Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 14.34 -8.31%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.83 +.05%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.76 +1.57%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.33 -8.73%
- ISE Sentiment Index 87.0 +26.09%
- Total Put/Call 1.05 -7.89%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.61 +3.05%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.24 +3.80%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 28.08 -1.09%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 68.82 +5.62%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 265.26 +3.40%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 310.85 +.87%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 +.25 basis point
- TED Spread 23.0 +.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.0 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% unch.
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $78.60/Metric Tonne unch.
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.20 -.7 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.80 +.4 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.98 -3.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +220 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +53 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- U.K. Prepares to Strike Islamist Militants in Iraq After Parliament Backs Action. (video) The U.K. is preparing to begin airstrikes against Islamic State
militants in Iraq, after Parliament voted overwhelmingly to support
action. The House of Commons backed a government motion
authorizing attacks on the Sunni extremist group by 524 votes to 43
today. Prime Minister David Cameron earlier told lawmakers in London they should be prepared for a long fight.
- Draghi May Discover Weaker Euro Doesn’t Buy Enough Recovery. (video) Mario Draghi may find a falling currency can’t buy much of an economic recovery.
The euro has dropped toward a two-year low against the dollar since the
European Central Bank president boosted stimulus earlier this month.
Economics textbooks say that should lift Europe’s struggling growth rate
by boosting exports and speed inflation by raising import prices. Such
effects will be more welcome if falling commodities deal a
disinflationary blow.
- European Stocks Climb as U.S. Economy Grows; Total Rises. European stocks rose, rebounding from a four-week low, as data showed the U.S. economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest rate since the last three months of 2011. Total SA advanced 2.3 percent following a report that it may sell a stake in the Gulf of Mexico’s Tahiti oil field. Air France-KLM Group dropped 1.7 percent after the board said pilot demands don’t fit with its plan for a low-cost model. J Sainsbury Plc lost 3.1 percent as data from researcher Nielsen Holdings NV showed 12-week sales at the grocer fell 1.8 percent. A gauge of retail companies fell the most of the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. The Stoxx 600 climbed 0.3 percent to 342.3 at the close of
trading, after earlier rising and falling as much as 0.5
percent.
- Dollar Climbs as Growth Bolsters Rate Speculation; Yen Weakens.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback
against 10 major currencies, jumped 0.5 percent to 1,067.58 at
1:37 p.m. New York time, headed for its highest close in four
years and a sixth-straight week of increases, the most since
November 2012. It has climbed 3.7 percent in September and 6.4
percent this quarter.
- Corn Prices Slump to Five-Year Low on Bumper U.S. Crop.
Corn futures for December delivery dropped 0.9 percent to
close at $3.23 a bushel at 1:15 p.m. on the Chicago Board of
Trade. Earlier, the price touched $3.2275, the lowest for a
most-active contract since Sept. 24, 2009.
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
MailOnline:
- Now Taliban try to seize ISIS crown for brutality as they launch massive offensive and behead civilians.
Taliban fighters have beheaded 15 civilians in battles for control of a
key district near Kabul in a chilling echo of the brutality meted out
by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. The Ghazni provincial government
said it has lost contact with police in the province's western district
of Ajrestan after hundreds of insurgents stormed several villages in
the area. The attack by an estimated 700 Taliban fighters began about
five days ago and early reports were that more than 100 people had been
killed, provincial deputy governor Ahmadullah Ahmadi said. At least 15 of those were decapitated, he added.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Hospitals -1.91% 2) Gold & Silver -1.63% 3) Steel -.63%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- PHK, PTY, PCN, PFL, FINL, PDI, CPA, ATU, CLF, GPRO, STWD, RAVN, CNL,
NORD, NSIT, ACOR, SHLD, KORS, NLNK, PBYI, RENT, GOLD and MAT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) AVP 2) NLY 3) HYG 4) MMM 5) XLB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) FINL 2) MMM 3) QCOM 4) TECD 5) ATU
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Gaming +2.28% 2) Oil Service +.98% 3) Road & Rail +.77%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- JNS, AGIO, DMND, BBRY, RPRX, NKE, LM, MU, DGLY, AMBA, KPTI and AZPN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) CDNS 2) CVEO 3) NKE 4) ABBV 5) ACAS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) NKE 2) BBRY 3) NOC 4) MU 5) LNKD
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Russia Risks Recession as Oil Drop Seen Squeezing Budget. The easing of tensions in Ukraine
will offer little respite to Russia as the lowest oil prices in more than two years threaten to tilt the $2 trillion economy
toward recession, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Russia needs Urals, its main export crude blend, to trade
at $100 per barrel or higher to avoid a recession, according to
58 percent of respondents in a survey of 19 economists. Given
the level of U.S. and European sanctions over Ukraine, at least
19 percent of analysts said the current price is sufficiently
low to put Russia’s financial stability at risk.
- Inflation Slowing More Than Forecast Shows Risk for BOJ: Economy.
Japan’s inflation slowed more than expected in August, highlighting the
risks facing Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in his push for
prices to rise 2 percent. Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 3.1
percent from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo,
undershooting the median projection for a 3.2 percent increase in a
Bloomberg News survey of 31 economists. Stripped of the effect of
April’s sales tax increase, inflation was 1.1 percent, according to the
BOJ’s estimates.
- Yen Drop Erodes Japan Banks’ Advantage on Overseas Risks. The
yen’s 20 percent depreciation since the end of 2012 has seen Japanese
banks’ balance-sheet superiority against overseas competitors vanish.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (8306), Japan’s largest lender, has
an adjusted core capital ratio of 9.4 percent, as the size of its
overseas risk assets swelled, below the 11.5 percent for Deutsche Bank
AG and 10.5 percent for Citigroup Inc., according to Bank of America
Merrill Lynch calculations. The prices of subordinated U.S. dollar bonds
sold by Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (8316) and Mizuho
Financial Group Inc. that
count as capital fell to three-month lows last week.
- China Raises Death Toll From Xinjiang Bombs, Riots to 50. The
death toll from violence that
erupted in China’s turbulent far western region of Xinjiang last weekend
was raised to 50 from two, state media reported, saying most of the
dead were either killed by suicide bombs or shot by police. Forty “rioters,” six civilians and four police personnel died when several bombs exploded at places including a farmers’
market, two police stations and a shop in Luntai county at 5
p.m. on Sept. 21, news website Tianshannet reported. Another 54
people were injured, with 32 belonging to the Uighur ethnic
minority and 22 Han Chinese, it said, citing the Xinjiang police
investigation. The jump in confirmed casualties comes after Radio Free
Asia yesterday reported that the original death toll of two
given by authorities was too low, citing interviews with local
officials and eyewitnesses.
- Alibaba(BABA) Bears Emerge to Short 8.9 Million Shares.
Short sellers are making their first bets on a retreat in Alibaba Group
Holding Ltd. (BABA) a week after the company priced the world’s
biggest-ever initial public offering. Bears who profit from price declines have sold short 8.9 million shares, or about 2.4 percent of Alibaba’s listed stock,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Markit, a London-based provider of financial information. The Hangzhou-based
company, China’s biggest e-commerce operator, sold 368.1 million
shares in the IPO. The stock fell 1.8 percent to $88.92 in New
York yesterday.
- China’s H Shares Drop to Lowest in Two Months as ICBC Retreats.
Chinese stocks slumped in Hong Kong, dragging the benchmark index down
to its lowest level since July 21, as banks and energy producers
declined. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (601398), the
nation’s largest lender, headed for a third straight weekly loss.
PetroChina Co.,the country’s largest oil and natural gas producer, slid
1.2 percent. Tencent Holdings Ltd. (700) led declines by Chinese
technology shares. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) fell
0.8 percent to 10,553.89 at 9:46 a.m. local time, taking its decline
for the week to 2 percent. The gauge has lost 7.4 percent from this
year’s Sept. 8 high on concern the government will refrain from
major stimulus to spur growth.
- Asian Stocks Drop After U.S. Tumble as Aussie Bonds Rally.
Asian stocks fell, with Japanese
shares retreating from a six-year high, after the Standard &
Poor’s 500 Index dropped the most in almost two months. Gold rallied
with sovereign bonds as the cost of insuring debt against default
climbed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) lost 1 percent by 12:38
p.m. in Tokyo, as the Topix index dropped 1.1 percent from its highest
close since June 2008. Indonesian stocks plunged the most in
four months after the country scrapped direct regional
elections.
- Brent Crude Heads for Weekly Decline on Ample Supply; WTI Steady.
WTI for November delivery was 2 cents higher at $92.55 a barrel in
electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It fell 27 cents
to $92.53 yesterday. The U.S. benchmark crude was at a discount of
$4.47 to Brent, compared
with $6.74 at the end of last week.
Wall Street Journal:
- U.S. Turns Up the Heat on Turkey Over Islamic State. Obama, Biden, Arab Officials Push Ankara to Join Campaign Against Extremists. Turkey is showing signs of shifting to a more active role in the
campaign against extremist group Islamic State as the government faces
pressure from impatient U.S. and Arab officials. President Barack
Obama called Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan from Air Force One
on Thursday and the two leaders agreed to consult more closely on the
Islamic State threat. Vice President Joe Biden met Mr. Erdogan in New
York on...
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
NY Times:
- Military Path Opened for Young Immigrants. A small number of young immigrants who grew up in the United States
without legal status will be allowed to join the military and have a
fast-track pathway to citizenship, Pentagon officials announced
Thursday, the first time those young people have been able to enlist.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.50 -.5 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 65.25 +1.5 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- 2Q GDP is estimated to rise +4.6% versus a prior estimate of a +4.2% gain.
- 2Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +2.9% versus a prior estimate of a +2.5% gain.
- 2Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +2.1% versus a prior estimate of a +2.1% gain.
- 2Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a prior estimate of a +2.0% gain.
9:55 am EST
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for September is estimated to rise to 84.8 versus a prior estimate of 84.6.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The German Consumer Climate Index could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.
