Monday, September 29, 2014

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Netanyahu to Push Iran as Worse Threat Than Islamic State. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will urge world leaders to keep up the pressure on Iran over its nuclear program even as they confront the threat of Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria. Netanyahu, addressing the United Nations General Assembly today, will expand on his Sept. 22 remarks mocking “esteemed commentators in the West” who say “the major powers need to go easy on Iran’s nuclear program so that Iran will fight” Islamic State, according to aides familiar with his speech. They asked not to be identified because it hasn’t been delivered.
  • Turkey Wants Secure Syria Zone as Militants Strike Kurds. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said setting up a “secure zone” inside Syria is necessary to help refugees return after they fled Islamic State’s onslaught against Kurdish areas into Turkey. Erdogan’s remarks to the World Economic Forum in Istanbul may anger Kurdish officials, who accuse him of siding with Islamic State against the Kurds in Syria to justify creating a buffer zone that would smother the autonomous region there. The Turkish government denies supporting Islamic State or any militant group.
  • Ukraine Warns of Renegade Rebel Attacks Threatening Cease-Fire. Ukraine warned that groups beyond the control of rebel leaders in the country’s east were continuing attacks on government forces, undermining a truce that has mostly held since it was signed this month. Two autonomous rebel units, “Zarya” and “Don,” fired from long-range artillery at the Ukrainian army near Shchastya, a town 15 kilometers north of Luhansk, regional Governor Hennadiy Moskal said Sept. 27 on his website. Ukrainian troops repelled an attack on the Donetsk airport yesterday, according to military spokesman Andriy Lysenko.
  • Softbank Discussing Buyout of DreamWorks Animation. Softbank Corp., the Japanese wireless carrier headed by Masayoshi Son, is in talks to buy Jeffrey Katzenberg’s DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. film studio, people familiar with the situation said. 
  • Commerzbank Said to Face U.S. Laundering Controls Probe. Commerzbank AG (CBK), the German lender seeking to resolve a probe into Iran sanctions violations, also faces a U.S. inquiry into whether it broke anti-money-laundering laws, according to a person with knowledge of the situation.
  • Hong Kong Dollar, Stocks Slide Amid Protest Crackdown. Hong Kong’s stocks fell to a two-month low, its currency dropped and equity-market volatility surged amid the biggest police crackdown on protesters since the city returned to Chinese rule. The benchmark Hang Seng Index sank 1.3 percent as of 9:50 a.m. in Hong Kong to the lowest intraday level since July 18 as developers and retailers tumbled. The MSCI Hong Kong Index headed for its biggest drop in a year, while a gauge of stock volatility jumped 15 percent, poised for the steepest surge since February. The city’s currency slid 0.03 percent to HK$7.7602 per greenback.
  • Asia Stocks Fall, Led by Hong Kong, as Dollar Climbs. Asian stocks dropped, led by a rout in Hong Kong, after clashes between police and pro-democracy protesters in the Chinese city. The dollar extended gains and the cost of insuring debt against default jumped after U.S. economic data bolstered the outlook for higher interest rates. The Hang Seng Index lost 2.3 percent by 11:22 a.m. in Tokyo, erasing its gain for the year and dragging the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to a 0.7 percent decline.
  • Iron Ore Seen Weak by Albanese as High-Cost Mines Face Pain. Iron ore prices that fell to a five-year low this month are seen staying weak for a sustained period as supply exceeds demand and China’s economy slows, according to Tom Albanese, former head of Rio Tinto Group. High-cost producers are facing a “pain point” at prices of about $80 a metric ton, Albanese, chief executive officer of London-based Vedanta Resources Plc (VED), said in interviews with Bloomberg Television and a reporter today. While low-cost producers would still be able to make good money in iron ore, there will be closures of higher-cost mines over time, he said.
  • Nickel Poised to Enter Bear Market on Path to Quarterly Loss. Nickel fell, heading for a bear market, on concern that demand will slow in China, the biggest metals user, and after Philippine lawmakers clarified last week they won’t seek an ore-export ban for at least seven years. The metal in London retreated as much as 2.5 percent and is down 13 percent this quarter. Profits at industrial companies in China fell last month for the first time in two years as a slowdown deepens, data showed Sept. 27.
  • Hedge Funds Raise Bullish Cocoa Bets on Ebola Concerns. Hedge funds raised bullish bets on cocoa before prices climbed to the highest since 2011 on concern that the deadly Ebola disease will disrupt supplies from West Africa, which produces 70 percent of global supply. Money managers raised their net-long positions by the most in 16 weeks.
  • Warren Calls For Hearings on New York Fed Allegations. U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren called for a congressional investigation into allegations that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York had been too deferential to the institutions it regulated. “Congress must hold oversight hearings on the disturbing issues raised by today’s whistle-blower report when it returns in November -- because it’s our job to make sure our financial regulators are doing their jobs,” Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat and member of the Senate Banking Committee, said in a statement today. 
  • Fisher Says Fed Must Weigh Wage Pressures in Setting Rate Policy. The Federal Reserve mustn’t “fall behind the curve” as it weighs when to start raising interest rates, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said, citing strengthening U.S. growth and building wage-price pressures. Fisher, a vocal advocate for tighter monetary policy to protect against inflation, also said today that two soon-to-be-released economic reports from his Fed district would “knock your socks off.”
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
  • US 'understimated' rise of ISIS, Obama says. President Obama acknowledged Sunday that U.S. intelligence officials "underestimated" the threat posed by the Islamic State and overestimated the Iraqi army’s capacity to defeat the militant group.
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
Financial Times: 
Wirtschaftswoche:
  • Ifo's Sinn Urges Germany to Act Against ECB ABS Purchases. Germany should take legal moves to oppose the European Central Bank's purchase of asset-backed securities, Hans-Werner Sinn, head of the Ifo economic institute, says in preview of guest editorial to be published in the coming edition. ECB would exceed its treaty-restricted monetary mandate with the planned purchases, Sinn said.
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.0 +4.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 69.25 +4.0 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.12%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.29%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.25%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (CALM)/1.17
  • (CTAS)/.75
  • (COCO)/.11
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Personal Income for August is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in July.
  • Personal Spending for August is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.1% decline in July.
  • The PCE Core for August is estimated unch. versus a +.1% gain in July. 
10:00 am EST
  • Pending Home Sales for August are estimated to fall -.5% versus a +3.3% gain in July.
10:30 am EST
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for September is estimated to rise to 10.5 versus 7.1 in August.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone Consumer Confidence report, China HSBC Manufacturing PMI, Deutsche Bank Leveraged Finance Conference, Johnson Rice Energy Conference, (NI) investor day and the (F) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead (audio) by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on Russia-Ukraine/Mideast tensions, rising European/Emerging Markets debt angst, global growth worries, Fed rate hike concerns, yen strength and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Friday, September 26, 2014

Market Week in Review

  • S&P 500 1,982.85 -1.37%*
 photo kip_zps1d3cf871.png


The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.


*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 1,982.85 -1.37%
  • DJIA 17,113.15 -.96%
  • NASDAQ 4,512.19 -1.48%
  • Russell 2000 1,119.33 -2.40%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 33.42 -1.68%
  • Wilshire 5000 20,596.10 -1.56%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 925.20 -1.19%
  • Russell 1000 Value 992.28 -1.80%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 465.18 -.78%
  • Solactive US Cyclical 135.67 -1.68%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 971.68 -1.48%
  • Transports 8,484.91 -1.72%
  • Utilities 547.95 -1.61%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 111.07 -1.13%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 42.54 -2.84%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,181.48 -.10%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 975.37 +.22%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 225,081 -1.54%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -773 -714
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 42.31 +5.78%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 296,052 -.41%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,480,629 -3.14%
  • Total Put/Call 1.12 +36.59%
  • OEX Put/Call 2.44 +287.30%
  • ISE Sentiment 82.0 +1.23%
  • NYSE Arms .73 -20.65%
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.85 +22.63%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.74 +15.57%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.66 +5.51%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.80 +6.85%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 11,347.14 -1.92%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.591 Trillion +.59%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$1.980 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 41.8 -.9%
  • AAII % Bears 28.2 +22.9%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 280.28 +.31%
  • Crude Oil 93.54 +1.18%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 266.19 +2.40%
  • Natural Gas 4.03 +4.81%
  • Heating Oil 270.05 -.61%
  • Gold 1,214.10 -.15%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 193.82 -1.30%
  • Copper 303.55 -1.70%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 359.0 USD/Ton unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 78.60 USD/Ton -3.79%
  • Lumber 327.20 -.55%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,158.91 -1.10%
Economy
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.1% +40.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1221 +2.0%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 128.71 +.05%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.20 +6.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -45.0 -5.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.80 +4.8 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 36.0% chance of no change, 64.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 9/17
  • US Dollar Index 85.64 +1.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.72 -.91%
  • Yield Curve 195.0 -6.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.53% -4.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.418 Trillion +.22%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.54 -1.94%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 170.0 +6.25%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 28.08 +4.79%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 69.12 +10.41%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 231.13 +4.28%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 79.50 +1.92%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 346.84 +7.01%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 239.82 +.42%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 310.85 +1.8%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.97% -6.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 23.0 +.75 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 -1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.0 +2.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 65.79 +17.07%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 63.11 +11.58%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 263.54 +1.85%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 82.50 +.5 basis point
  • M1 Money Supply $2.893 Trillion +1.27%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,057.70 +.60%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 298,500 -1,000
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.8% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.20% -3 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 338.40 -4.11%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 35.5 -1.5 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.10% -10.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $3.34/gallon -.02/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,038 -3.44%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,104.76 unch.
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.50 -12.50%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 279,777 +.26%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -1.20%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -2.8%
Leading Sectors
  • Biotech +.4%
  • Restaurants -.3%
  • Gaming -.7%
  • Drugs -.7%
  • Road & Rail -.9%
Lagging Sectors
  • Hospitals -4.1% 
  • Airlines -4.2%
  • Homebuilders -4.3%
  • Coal -4.4%
  • Steel -5.4%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (21)
  • AVNR, CNCE, AUXL, CNVR, GRT, ULTA, EPIQ, TGTX, APOG, AVID, QDEL, DD, ALR, BBG, TAP, DRC, TNET, PODD, GDOT, NUE and HDS
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (23)
  • AGNC, HCN, FR, SKX, DDR, TEN, MDU, DEI, ADBE, ALOG, NEWM, BRC, EPR, RTRX, CTRE, OI, WPG, RATE, UVV, PETX, PIR, RAX and BBSI
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Quarter-End Window-Dressing, Central Bank Hopes, Yen Weakness, Gaming/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Slightly Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.34 -8.31%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.83 +.05%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.76 +1.57%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.33 -8.73%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 87.0 +26.09%
  • Total Put/Call 1.05 -7.89%
  • NYSE Arms .75 -64.77% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.61 +3.05%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.24 +3.80%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 28.08 -1.09%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 68.82 +5.62%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 265.26 +3.40%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 310.85 +.87%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 23.0 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.0 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% unch.
  • Yield Curve 195.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $78.60/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.20 -.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.80 +.4 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.98 -3.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +220 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +53 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 
  • U.K. Prepares to Strike Islamist Militants in Iraq After Parliament Backs Action. (video) The U.K. is preparing to begin airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Iraq, after Parliament voted overwhelmingly to support action. The House of Commons backed a government motion authorizing attacks on the Sunni extremist group by 524 votes to 43 today. Prime Minister David Cameron earlier told lawmakers in London they should be prepared for a long fight.
  • Draghi May Discover Weaker Euro Doesn’t Buy Enough Recovery. (video) Mario Draghi may find a falling currency can’t buy much of an economic recovery. The euro has dropped toward a two-year low against the dollar since the European Central Bank president boosted stimulus earlier this month. Economics textbooks say that should lift Europe’s struggling growth rate by boosting exports and speed inflation by raising import prices. Such effects will be more welcome if falling commodities deal a disinflationary blow. 
  • European Stocks Climb as U.S. Economy Grows; Total Rises. European stocks rose, rebounding from a four-week low, as data showed the U.S. economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest rate since the last three months of 2011. Total SA advanced 2.3 percent following a report that it may sell a stake in the Gulf of Mexico’s Tahiti oil field. Air France-KLM Group dropped 1.7 percent after the board said pilot demands don’t fit with its plan for a low-cost model. J Sainsbury Plc lost 3.1 percent as data from researcher Nielsen Holdings NV showed 12-week sales at the grocer fell 1.8 percent. A gauge of retail companies fell the most of the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. The Stoxx 600 climbed 0.3 percent to 342.3 at the close of trading, after earlier rising and falling as much as 0.5 percent.
  • Dollar Climbs as Growth Bolsters Rate Speculation; Yen Weakens. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major currencies, jumped 0.5 percent to 1,067.58 at 1:37 p.m. New York time, headed for its highest close in four years and a sixth-straight week of increases, the most since November 2012. It has climbed 3.7 percent in September and 6.4 percent this quarter.
  • Corn Prices Slump to Five-Year Low on Bumper U.S. Crop. Corn futures for December delivery dropped 0.9 percent to close at $3.23 a bushel at 1:15 p.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade. Earlier, the price touched $3.2275, the lowest for a most-active contract since Sept. 24, 2009.
CNBC:
ZeroHedge: 
MailOnline:
  • Now Taliban try to seize ISIS crown for brutality as they launch massive offensive and behead civilians. Taliban fighters have beheaded 15 civilians in battles for control of a key district near Kabul in a chilling echo of the brutality meted out by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. The Ghazni provincial government said it has lost contact with police in the province's western district of Ajrestan after hundreds of insurgents stormed several villages in the area. The attack by an estimated 700 Taliban fighters began about five days ago and early reports were that more than 100 people had been killed, provincial deputy governor Ahmadullah Ahmadi said. At least 15 of those were decapitated, he added.