Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,886.76 -1.02%

• DJIA 16,380.40 -.99%

• NASDAQ 4,258.33 -.42%

• Russell 2000 1,082.33 +2.75%

• S&P 500 High Beta 31.16 +.39%

• Wilshire 5000 19,613.60 -1.76%

• Russell 1000 Growth 880.22 -.74%

• Russell 1000 Value 943.75 -.78%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 460.04 -2.25%

• Solactive US Cyclical 128.29 +1.90%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 904.90 -1.02%

• Transports 8,147.84 +3.23%

• Utilities 562.56 +.16%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 101.85 -2.01%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 40.59 -1.22%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,137.32 -2.70%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 979.52 +.03%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 219,225 +.74%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -997 +13

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls n/a

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 278,780 -5.07%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,537,452 +2.24%

• Total Put/Call 1.19 -1.65%

• OEX Put/Call 2.10 +47.89%

• ISE Sentiment 92.0 +33.33%

• NYSE Arms .62 -53.38%

• Volatility(VIX) 21.99 +17.22%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 68.35 +6.83%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.76 +4.72%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.48 +3.16%

• Smart Money Flow Index 10,942.49 -3.10%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.609 Trillion -.83%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$.533 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 42.7 +7.0%

• AAII % Bears 33.7 +8.8%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 272.64 -1.37%

• Crude Oil 82.75 -3.24%

• Reformulated Gasoline 223.227 -.92%

• Natural Gas 3.77 -2.44%

• Heating Oil 249.76 -2.43%

• Gold 1,239.0 +1.28%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 188.80 -1.19%

• Copper 300.35 -1.12%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 348.40 USD/Ton -2.95%

• China Iron Ore Spot 80.82 USD/Ton+.72%

• Lumber 334.60 -2.45%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,210.63 +1.94%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.6% -20 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .5151 -3.27%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 128.41 -.28%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.60 +1.5 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -54.10 +2.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.80 +6.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 36.0% chance of no change, 64.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 9/17

• US Dollar Index 85.11 -.82%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.38 +.30%

• Yield Curve 182.0 -4.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.19% -9.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.432 Trillion +.41%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.62 +10.69%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 177.0 +2.22%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 33.65 +29.07%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 73.81 +3.67%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 237.35 -.03%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 79.65 -2.87%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 363.48 +2.73%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 258.16 +.32%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 353.84 +7.65%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.93% -3.0 basis points

• TED Spread 21.0 -1.5 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.25 -.75 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 69.79 -1.51%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 73.32 +5.65%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 261.75 -1.44%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 83.0 -.5 basis point

• M1 Money Supply $2.845 Trillion -.04%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,060.50 -2.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 283,500 -4,250

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.8% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.97% -15 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 370.40 +5.62%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 36.2 -.6 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.80% -60 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.14/gallon -.10/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 930 -3.43%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,021.02 -3.56%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 273,436 -1.17%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +3.0%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -.8%

Leading Sectors

• Road & Rail +5.7%

• Homebuilders +5.1%

• Alt Energy +3.4%

• Gaming +3.4%

• Semis +2.5%

Lagging Sectors

• Computer Services -1.4% 

• Energy -1.8%

• Internet -2.9%

• Drugs -3.0%

• Medical Equipment -3.5%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (9)

• NLNK, EXAS, CUDA, ANGO, DPZ, EGL, CSX, AEL and MSTR

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (44)

• NOG, TXN, CCS, AVT, MTZ, A, NATI, LNCO, ABBV, PLCM, ACM, ISIL, FCS, AMTD, HDS, SAVE, ARW, CRK, CAVM, FAST, LMNX, CIE, KODK, MPWR, LYB, PTEN, HAL, BHI, SN, QEP, LAD, FET, NFX, JONE, CJES, MCHP, EXAC, MTW, BAS, KN, NFLX, SSE, ESPR and NTCT

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Less Eurozone/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Earnings Optimism, Homebuilding/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.60 -10.32%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.26 +.04%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.40 -2.78%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 69.42 +2.86%

• ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 +38.03%

• Total Put/Call 1.11 +9.90%

• NYSE Arms .67 -57.21% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.75 -3.88%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.58 -6.97%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 33.65 -2.18%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 74.32 -2.76%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 262.54 -6.20%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 353.83 +1.41%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 20.75 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.0 +.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.

• Yield Curve 183.0 +1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $80.82/Metric Tonne +.62%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.60 +2.3 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -54.1 +.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.80 +1.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.93 +3 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +215 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -73 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Rebel Elections Snarl Ukraine Talks as Putin Resists EU. Separatists’ plans to bring forward elections in rebel-held regions of Ukraine have become a sticking point in talks between the European Union and Russia aimed at resolving conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin refused to denounce votes planned for Nov. 2 in Luhansk and Donetsk in the east of the country despite pressure from European leaders including Germany’s Angela Merkel and the U.K.’s David Cameron at talks in Milan today, according to a Downing Street official.

• Putin’s Ruble Rescue Plan Crashes Into Global Market Rout. Russia’s efforts to ease a dollar funding crunch that is exacerbating the ruble’s decline are being hampered by a global market rout. The ruble fell to a fresh record yesterday, bond yields jumped and the cost of insuring government debt against non-payment was within 10 basis points of the highest level since 2011 even as the central bank announced a $50 billion repurchase agreement program and the Finance Ministry pledged an additional $3 billion. 

• Dallas Lab Worker Isolated on Carnival Cruise for Possible Ebola Contact. (video) A health worker from the Dallas hospital that diagnosed the first U.S. case of Ebola has voluntarily been isolated aboard a Carnival Corp. cruise ship. The worker, a lab supervisor at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital, hasn’t exhibited any symptoms of Ebola since she boarded the Carnival Magic bound for the Caribbean on Oct. 12 in Galveston, Texas, according to an e-mailed statement today from Carnival Corp.

• ECB Says Too-Slow Governments a Threat to Europe Revival. European Central Bank policy makers said governments must accelerate plans to strengthen their economies or risk derailing the region’s recovery. “Talking vaguely about structural reforms, but not doing them, is the worst of all worlds,” Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said today in Riga. “It creates uncertainty over the path of real interest rates, without in tandem raising expectations of future growth.”

• Italian Bonds Drop as Greek Concern Sparks Worst Week in a Year. Italian bonds fell, with 10-year yields set for the biggest weekly increase in more than a year, as prospects of Greece exiting its bailout combined with the threat of recession to sap demand for higher-yielding assets. Spain’s government securities dropped for a third day before the country’s rating review by Moody’s Investors Service, a day after a debt sale fell short of its maximum target amid turmoil prompted by a surge in Greek yields. German 10-year bonds headed for a fifth week of gains as economic reports this week and gauges showing a decline in inflation expectations fueled concern the euro area is heading for recession. 

• Rolls-Royce Sales to Drop on Russia Sanctions, Economic Woes. Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc (RR/) said sales will decline this year and could fall again in 2015 as a worsening economic situation prompts clients to delay orders and sanctions over the Ukraine crisis stall Russian contracts. Shares of London-based Rolls-Royce fell as much as 16 percent as the world’s second-biggest maker of aircraft engines said revenue will drop by between 3.5 and 4 percent in 2014, with free cash flow dwindling to about 350 million pounds ($564 million), or less than half the figure previously anticipated. 

• Corporate Gloom Spreads in Europe as Rolls-Royce to Nestle Miss. While Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc (RR/)’s gas turbines and Jimmy Choo Plc (CHOO)’s $1,995 peep-toe sandals have nothing in common, today the two companies encapsulated the corporate decline that’s gripping Europe. It’s been a tough week for European companies, with Rolls-Royce cutting its full-year target for sales and cash flow, leading the stock to drop the most in eight month, while Jimmy Choo sold shares to the public at the bottom end of its range. 

• European Stocks Rise Most Since 2011 on Stimulus Pressure. (video) European stocks climbed the most in almost three years, ending their longest losing streak in 11 years, as an ailing euro-area economy increases pressure on policy makers to provide more stimulus measures. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index jumped 2.8 percent to 318.68 at the close of trading, after a 7.7 percent slump in the past eight days dragged it to the lowest level of the year.

• FHFA Said to Plan Steps to Ease Lending to Riskier Buyers. A U.S. housing regulator plans new steps to encourage banks to lend to buyers with less than-perfect credit scores, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter. Melvin L. Watt, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, will clarify in a speech next week when banks are required to buy back failing loans from Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac, said the people, who asked not to be identified because his plans aren’t public.

Fox News:

• CDC Doled Out $25 Million In Bonuses While Blaming Cuts For Ebola Outbreak. Top public health officials have collected $25 million in bonuses since 2007, carving out extra pay for themselves in tight federal budgetary times while blaming a lack of money for the Obama administration’s lackluster response to the Ebola outbreak.

CNBC:

• Ebola 'strippers' quarantine, Schools' student screen. An Atlanta-area public school district is refusing to enroll any new students from three Ebola-afflicted countries in West Africa without special approval and a medical sign-off, the district said Friday.

• Banks take big bet on red-hot apartments. (video)

• Small caps rake in big bucks; top week in 14 years. (video)

ZeroHedge:

• Calling The Fed's Bluff.

• And The Market Breaks Again...

• Handelsblatt: "Four German Banks On The Brink".

• Deflation Flirts With America.

• Meet America's New Ebola Czar.

• "Another Reminder How Addicted Markets Still Are To Liquidity". (graph)

•  UMich Consumer Confidence Surges To 7 Year High. (graph)

• PBOC Disappoints Rate-Cut Hopers, Injects $32 Billion Into Banks. (graph)

Financial Times: 

• Junk bonds caught in flight from risk. A sell-off in US stocks this week hit the junk bond markets as investors shunned the riskier securities amid fears about the outlook for the global economy.

Telegraph:

• Jens Weidmann: ECB's 'QE' will not fix the eurozone's problems. Bundesbank president says eurozone is being hampered by structural barriers, not monetary policy.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.13%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -2.71% 2) Oil Service -.73% 3) Retail -.31%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• URBN, NLNK, NFLX, ATHN, GIII, MYGN, SNDK, CMA, GOOGL, GOOG, TS, CF, CMRX, EGL, COF, CWEI, FRAN, COV, BRS, KSU, AMSF, KT, VNR, FARO, WPZ, FRAN, AREX, XONE and URBN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HCA 2) COF 3) BAX 4) HIG 5) DOW

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CWEI 2) TIFF 3) LULU 4) RIG 5) URBN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.53%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders +4.17% 2) Biotech +2.41% 3) HMOs +2.39%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ESI, TTPH, QLGC, XLNX, PPC, REGN, SRPT, TXT, HAL, GBX, BAS, SUNE, FMI, EQIX, EMES, CJES, BCEI, CPHD, NYLD, HAL, SLB, MRC, BHI, SLCA, VMC, ICPT, HON, CHKR, WAL, NTCT, ITT, VC, HUN, WLL, TWC, LINE, ADTN, CLH, OXY and HDS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) URBN 2) JDSU 3) WY 4) TWC 5) ESI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TXT  2) BA 3) MS 4) PCYC 5) SLB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Putin Threatens EU Gas Squeeze Raising Stakes for Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin flew into Milan last night for peace talks with European Union leaders after threatening to cut the supply of natural gas through Ukraine if the government in Kiev diverts fuel for domestic use. After missing an earlier meeting time because he stayed on at a military parade in Serbia, Putin met German Chancellor Angela Merkel shortly before midnight as they prepared for formal talks on Ukraine scheduled for 8 a.m. today. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko also met Merkel as well as Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and EU President Herman van Rompuy.

• How the World's Top Health Body Allowed Ebola to Spiral Out of Control.

• France Gets Whacked by the Bond Market. (graph)

• Asian Stocks Rebound From Six-Month Low on Fed Outlook. Asian stocks rose from a six-month low after a Federal Reserve official said the central bank should consider delaying the end of bond purchases and U.S. data eased concern over the global economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) climbed 0.1 percent to 134.93 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo after closing yesterday at the lowest since March 25. The gauge is heading for a sixth straight weekly decline as faltering recoveries in China and Europe spark concern global economic growth will slow and the Fed considers when to raise interest rates.

Wall Street Journal:

• In Liberia, U.S. Soldiers Race Ebola. As Outbreak Spreads, International Community Rebuilds Nation’s Health-Care System. American and Liberian soldiers hammer, saw and sweat in the afternoon sun here in a frenetic campaign to build the county’s first Ebola-treatment unit. Soon, the soldiers will have floodlights to work round-the-clock shifts.

• Biden’s Son Hunter Discharged From Navy Reserve After Failing Cocaine Test. Vice President Joe Biden’s son Hunter was discharged from the Navy Reserve this year after testing positive for cocaine, according to people familiar with the matter.

• Corporate-Debt Market Slows to a Crawl. Banks’ Reduction of Bond Inventories Is Fueling Lack of Liquidity. Corporate-bond investors have struggled this week to find trading partners for some large orders, causing unusual price drops and raising concerns that trading could freeze in future market turmoil. 

• Global Markets Catch the Chinese Flu. The ill effects of Beijing’s borrowing and spending binge are rippling through the world economy. It has become almost politically correct to blame the latest global growth scare on the usual suspects, Japan and Europe, and to suggest that if only those skinflint Germans would spend more, all would be better.

Fox News:

• Ebola outbreak: CDC, Frontier Airlines hunt passengers who flew with nurse. (video) Authorities scrambled Thursday to contact the 132 passengers who flew from Cleveland to Dallas this week with a nurse who was stricken with the Ebola virus.

CNBC:

• Google(GOOG) shares slide after Q3 earnings miss. Google shares dipped after it delivered quarterly earnings and revenue that missed estimates. The online giant's cost per click—how much it earns when a user clicks its advertisers' ad—continues to decline. During the third quarter, CPC dropped 2 percent, year over year, versus expectations of a 4 percent decline, according to StreetAccount. Meanwhile, the number of paid clicks rose about 17 percent from a year ago, compared to forecasts for growth of 23.5 percent, according to StreetAccount. Shares fell as much as 6 percent before easing in after-hours trading.  

• Worried fliers wear masks as precaution against Ebola. (video)

• Short seller Carson Block considers hedge fund firm. Short seller Carson Block, the founder of research firm Muddy Waters who has exposed accounting problems at a slew of Chinese companies, said on Thursday that he is seriously considering launching a hedge fund investment firm.

Zero Hedge:

• Researchers Expect Over 20 US Ebola Cases In Weeks, "You Don't Want To Know Worst Case".

• Washington D.C. Is Now The Most Expensive Place To Live In The US.

• The Ebola Effect Arrives: Half Of Americans Will Avoid International Air Travel Out Of Ebola Fears.

• What Americans Are Thinking (And Asking) About The Fed.

• Dow Drops 6th Day - Longest Losing Streak In 14 Months. (graph)

• What A Correction Feels Like.

• 3 Things Worth Thinking About.

• Japanese Stocks Tumble After BoJ Bond-Buying Operation Fails For First Time Since Abenomics. (graph)

• Hyperinflation Doesn't Scare Kuroda But Ex-BoJ Chief Says "Quit While You're Ahead".

Business Insider:

• WHO Sounds The Alarm On Ebola: 'The Situation Is Deteriorating'.

• Another Semiconductor Company Delivers Bad News About The Industry And Now Its Stock Is Tanking.

• US Nurses On Ebola: 'We've Been Lied To'.

• Wells Fargo(WFC) Is Closing Its 'Dark Pool'.

Reuters:

• CF Industries(CF), Yara International end merger talks. CF Industries Holdings Inc ended merger talks with Norway's Yara International ASA after the companies failed to agree on terms of a deal that would have created a global fertilizer giant with an enterprise value approaching $30 billion. 

• U.S.-based European stock funds post record weekly outflows - Lipper.

• Fusion-io integration hurts chipmaker SanDisk's(SNDK) revenue forecast. Chipmaker SanDisk Corp forecast current-quarter revenue below analysts' estimates due to lower revenue from Fusion-io Inc, a solid-state storage products maker it acquired in June. SanDisk's shares fell 5 percent in extended trading, after the company also reported lower-than-expected revenue for the third quarter.

Obama takes on coal with first-ever carbon limits
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.9Brazil cuts 2014 GDP growth forecast, keeps fiscal goaFed's Williams: Can't wait too long to raise rates

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.0 -2.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 76.5 +2.75 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures -.40%.

• S&P 500 futures +.22%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.13%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (BK)/.61

• (CMA)/.80

• (GE)/.37

• (HON)/1.41

• (KSU)/1.26

• (MTB)/1.98

• (MS)/.53

• (STI)/.79

• (TXT)/.53

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for September are estimated to rise to 1008K versus 956K in August. 

• Building Permits for September are estimated to rise to 1030K versus 998K in August.

9:55 am EST

• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for October is estimated to fall to 84.0 versus 84.6 in September.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Yellen speaking on inequality, Fed's Rosengren speaking and the Canadian inflation data could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by real estate and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.