Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Less Eurozone Debt Angst, Yen Weakness, Commodity/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.43 -3.27%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 154.06 -.06%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.53 +.12%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 65.96 -.48%

• ISE Sentiment Index 161.0 +35.28%

• Total Put/Call .76 -32.74%

• NYSE Arms .79 -44.43% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.75 -.61%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.23 -1.16%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.75 -5.59%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 61.71 -1.43%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 291.80 -.50%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 327.96 -.05%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.0 +.75 basis point

• TED Spread 22.5 +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 +.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.

• Yield Curve 173.0 -2.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $69.25/Metric Tonne -2.01%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.20 +4.3 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.20 -4.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.2 +.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.80 +1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +149 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/tech/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Russia Recession Signs Mount as Central Bank Stems Ruble Losses. Russia’s economic pain worsened as a measure of services dropped to the lowest point since May 2009 and the central bank attempted to stem the ruble’s biggest slide in 16 years. The ruble touched a record low for a fifth day as data showed a gauge of business activity fell to a worse-than-forecast 44.5 in November. The currency rebounded amid speculation the Bank of Russia intervened after a 16 percent depreciation in six days, the most since the 1998 default. Wagers for interest-rate increases surged to a six-year high, while bonds of state-run VTB Bank sank on concern falling oil is straining lenders’ finances.

• Russian Services Industry Slumps to Lowest Since May 2009. (video) Russia’s services activity slumped to its lowest in five-and-a-half years as sanctions over Ukraine compounded weak demand, a falling ruble and political uncertainty to undermine private companies. The Russia Services Business Activity Index fell to 44.5 in November, its lowest since May 2009, from 47.4 in October, according to data released by HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) and Markit Economics today. The median estimate of eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted an increase to 47.8. A reading below 50 signals contraction. 

• Euro-Area Economy Weakens as ECB Considers Stimulus. Euro-area services and manufacturing grew less than initially estimated last month, leaving the economy facing near-stagnation as the European Central Bank considers its options on further stimulus. A composite Purchasing Managers Index fell to 51.1 from 52.1 in October, London-based Markit Economics said today. The reading is the lowest in 16 months and points to economic growth of just 0.1 percent this quarter, according to Markit.

• There Are 300,000 Iraqi Barrels Signaling Oil Glut Will Deepen. Not only is OPEC refraining from cutting oil output to stem the five-month plunge in prices, it’s adding to the supply glut. Just five days after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to maintain production levels, Iraq, the group’s second-biggest member, inked an export deal with the Kurds that may add about 300,000 barrels a day to world supplies.

• Saudis Seen Widening Asia Oil Discounts as OPEC Takes On Shale. Saudi Arabia will probably deepen discounts for crude supplies to Asia after leading OPEC to maintain the group’s output target amid a global battle for market share, according to a Bloomberg survey of traders. The world’s biggest oil exporter will announce January officialselling prices to buyers in Asia this week, after lifting its Arab Light grade from the lowest level in almost six years a month earlier. The largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may offer bigger discounts, according to 12 of 13 respondents in the survey. One participant forecast price differentials to be unchanged. 

• Audi Plans Electric Crossover to Take on Tesla in U.S. Audi AG (NSU) plans to roll out an electric-powered crossover in 2017 to challenge Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA) for wealthy, environmentally conscious consumers. The new model will mark Audi’s first mainstream all-electric vehicle and is part of a push to roll out greener cars. Next year, Audi will introduce a battery-powered variant of the $115,900 R8 sports car, which will follow the start of deliveries of the plug-in hybrid A3 E-Tron hatchback this year.

• Europe Stocks Climb Amid ECB Optimism as Commodity Stocks Rally. Gains in miners helped propel European stocks to within 0.1 percent of a six-year high amid bets that the European Central Bank will expand stimulus. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased 0.6 percent to 349.34 at the close of trading in London. That’s its highest level since June 10, and Rio Tinto Group pushed a measure of commodity companies to the biggest gain on the gauge.

• Wall Street Called Out by Regulators for Stalling on Swaps Rule. U.S. regulators are getting fed up with Wall Street’s attempts to stall a restriction on risky swaps trades. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Citigroup Inc. (C) and other lenders have already won one delay of the measure that forces them to move derivatives out of units with federal backstops. Getting another reprieve is crucial for banks, because it would give them time to persuade a Republican-led Congress to kill the requirement.

• Hedge Funds Urged to Beat Benchmarks Before Charging Fees. Hedge fund investors are catching up with their private equity peers. Five years after clients of leveraged buyout firms released a set of best practices for the industry, hedge fund clients are following suit. The Teacher Retirement System of Texas and MetLife Inc. are among those that yesterday called on managers to produce “alpha,” or gains above market benchmarks before charging incentive fees in a range of proposals that address investing terms. Funds should also impose minimum return levels known as hurdle rates before levying the charges, said the Alignment of Interests Association, a group that represents some investors in the $2.8 trillion hedge fund industry.

• Obamacare's Future: Cancer Patients Paying More for Medication. People with Obamacare coverage who take medications for cancer, HIV, multiple sclerosis, and other chronic diseases might pay more out of pocket next year. A greater share of insurance plans sold in the healthcare.gov marketplace will require consumers to pay 30 percent or more of the cost of specialty drugs, according to a new analysis from consultant Avalere Health.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Economic activity expanding with signs of optimism: Beige Book.

• Tesla’s(TSLA) stock extends drop below key chart line. (graph)

CNBC:

• Vladimir Putin’s worst nightmare may be happening right now. Is Russia’s tanking economy making its leader vulnerable?

ZeroHedge: 

• Jobs: Shale States vs Non-Shale States. (graph)

• Crude Slides After Saudis Suggest Oil Stabilizes Around $60. (graph)

• Venezuela Default Risk Surges To Jan 2009 Highs.

• ISM Services Surges To 4th Highest On Record (As Services PMI Plummets). (graph)

• US Services PMI Tumbles For 5th Month As "Domestic Demand Weakens". (graph)

• Russian Central Bank Defends Record Low 55 Level, Bonds Tumble. (graph)

• ADP Employment Misses, Worst November In 4 Years. (graph)

• "Clearly A Negative Signal": BofA Shows Thanksgiving Spending Was Biggest Dud Since Lehman. (graph)

Business Insider: 

• STUDY: 86% Of Vegetarians Go Back To Eating Meat.

• How The Oil Crash Could Trigger The Next Subprime Crisis.

• A Chinese Company Made An Android Phone That Looks Exactly Like The iPhone 6 — And It's Super Cheap.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.89%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +4.14% 2) Steel +2.58% 3) Oil Service +2.05%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CARB, GIII, JD, IPGP, ANF, OFG, LDOS, EMES, LDOS, BBEP, CVC and WLL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IDTI 2) XOMA 3) TER 4) BEAV 5) AT
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WAG 2) AN 3) LOCO 4) FAST 5) NUE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Ukraine’s New Cabinet Takes Office Facing War, Economic Downturn. Ukraine’s new cabinet won approval to take office and must set to work fixing the economy and tackling a war that has triggered the worst standoff between Russia and its Soviet-era foes in more than two decades. With fighting against pro-Russian separatists hammering the economy, President Petro Poroshenko granted citizenship to three foreigners to let them take ministerial posts. Lawmakers voted 288 against 1 with 30 abstentions to approve the cabinet yesterday, as Russia and NATO exchanged recriminations over the conflict that has killed more than 4,300 people.

• 6 Charts That Illustrate Vladimir Putin's World of Pain. (graph)

• Australia’s Economy Slows, Sending Currency to Four-Year Low. Australia’s economy unexpectedly slowed for a second straight quarter, sending the currency to a four-year low and renewing pressure for interest-rate cuts. Gross domestic product advanced 0.3 percent from the previousthree months, when it rose 0.5 percent, a Bureau of Statistics report released in Sydney today showed. The result was less than the weakest estimate of 29 economists, who had a median of 0.7 percent.

• Japan Leads Asia Stocks Higher on U.S. Car Sales, Yen. Asian stocks rose, with Japan’s benchmark index climbing toward a seven-year high, after the yen weakened and automakers posted better-than-estimated U.S. car sales. Australia’s dollar slid to a four-year low after economic growth unexpectedly slowed and crude oil advanced. The Topix added 0.6 percent by 11:39 a.m. in Tokyo, rising for a second day as Toyota Motor Corp. climbed 1.3 percent.

• Bond Offerings Take Aim at $3.97 Trillion Record: Credit Markets. Corporate bond sales worldwide are poised to set an annual record as soon as this week as companies lock in borrowing costs that forecasters say are bound to rise. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Volkswagen AG (VOW) and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. have propelled offerings to $3.96 trillion this year, about $7 billion short of the peak of $3.97 trillion in 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Company bond sales in the U.S. have already set annual records.

• Fire Sales, Risk-Taking Threaten Stability, Treasury Says. Fire sales of assets, the Russia-Ukraine crisis and excessive risk-taking driven by low interest rates all pose potential threats to financial stability, the U.S. Treasury Department said. The Treasury’s Office of Financial Research, in its annual report released today, pointed to “vulnerabilities associated with declining market liquidity, and the migration of financial activities toward opaque and less-resilient corners of the financial system.” The OFR also cited excesses in the use of leveraged loans and the need to fill “data gaps” in the office’s monitoring of financial markets.

• Fed Officials Stress Data Over Dates as Rate Rise Case Builds. Federal Reserve officials are signaling more confidence in the economy that moves them nearer to raising interest rates, and are stressing the liftoff is linked to data rather than dates to avoid unsettling markets. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said today the central bank was getting closer to replacing its vow to hold rates low for a “considerable time” with guidance that tighter monetary policy would hinge on the economy’s performance.

Wall Street Journal: 

• San Francisco Pension Reconsiders Hedge-Fund Allocation. Proposal Comes in Wake of Calpers Retreat. The chairman of San Francisco’s pension fund is proposing a smaller mix of hedge funds than previously discussed, the latest retirement system to rethink its approach to those investments in the wake of a retreat by the largest public pension in the U.S. The new suggestion made by San Francisco Employees’ Retirement System Chairman Victor Makras, according to a memo reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, is to allocate as much as 3% of...

• Public Pensions Need Gamblers Anonymous. Retirement funds for Illinois and California hold 75% risky investments. The Texas teachers’ plan: 81%. 

Fox News:

• Taliban flexing muscle with high-profile attacks ahead of US drawdown.

Zero Hedge: 

• 5 Complete Lies About America's New $18 Trillion Debt Level.

• Daniel Hannan Summarizes Europe's Dead-End Policies In 70 Seconds.

• 10 Out Of 10 Credit Experts Agree: The Country Most Likely To Default First Is... (graph)

• The Name Is Bond, Long Bond.

• Crude Carnage Resumes But Stocks Bounce As Hindenburg Omen Strikes. (graph)

• The Middle Class Spending Crash Explained.

• Despite Face-Ripping Rally off Bullard Lows, US Investors In Japan Remain Down 4% Year-To-Date. (graph)

• Sam Zell Asks If Obama "Wants To Work With Anyone To Create Anything?" (video)

• Deficit Spending And Money Printing: A German Point Of View.

Business Insider:

• Latin America Is Grinding To A Halt.

• Russia Is Militarizing The Arctic.

Telegraph:

• Five reasons why markets are heading for a crash. Hold onto your hats. Stock markets look much as they did in 2000 and 2007.

Evening Recommendations 
Oppenheimer:

• Rated (SLB) Outperform, target $114.

• Rated (HAL) Outperform, target $71.

• Rated (WFT) Outperform, target $19

UBS:

• Cut Australia Banks to Underweight.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.0 -2.5 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 62.5 -1.75 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.09%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (ANF)/.41

• (GIII)/2.89

• (BF/A)/1.04

• (SNPS)/.61

• (GES)/.18

• (PVH)/2.48

Economic Releases
8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for November is estimated to fall to 222K versus 230K in October.

8:30 am EST

• Final 3Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to rise +2.4% versus a +2.0% gain in 2Q.

• Final 3Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.3% gain in 2Q.

9:45 am EST:

• Final Markit US Service PMI for November is estimated to rise to 56.5 versus a prior estimate of 56.3.
  

10:00 am EST

• ISM Non-Manufacturing for November is estimated to rise to 57.5 versus 57.1 in October.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +950,000 barrels versus a +1,946,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +850,000 barrels versus a +1,825,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +37,500 barrels versus a -1,648,000 barrel decline the pior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.47% versus a +.3% gain prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• Fed's Beige Book release.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Fisher speaking, Fed's Brainard speaking, Fed's Plosser speaking, Eurozone Services PMI, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (ADM) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the early close, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Seasonal Strength, Yen Weakness, Biotech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.93 -9.45%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 154.15 -.04%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.52 +2.53%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 67.29 -.53%

• ISE Sentiment Index 121.0 +35.96%

• Total Put/Call 1.16 +19.59%

• NYSE Arms 1.55 +60.57% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.0 -1.31%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.92 -1.03%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 28.33 -.21%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 62.51 -2.75%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 293.80 +2.05%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 328.11 -.20%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 21.75 -1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.75 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.

• Yield Curve 175.0 +2.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $70.67/Metric Tonne -.62%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.90 +.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -21.60 -.8 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.7 -2.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.79 -2.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +115 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +34 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• U.S. Says Russia Arms Ukraine Rebels, OSCE Wary on Truce. Ukraine’s parliament began approving a new cabinet that must fix the country’s economy and tackle a rebellion that has ignited the worst standoff between Russia and its Cold War enemies since the fall of the Iron Curtain. Lawmakers voted to keep Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin and Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak in their posts and debated the rest of the cabinet proposed by the new five-party ruling coalition. With fighting against pro-Russian separatists hammering Ukraine’s economy, President Petro Poroshenko granted citizenship to three foreigners to let them lead ministries. 

• Russian Woes Worsen as Recession Looms With Banks in ‘Panic'. (video) Russia’s economic crisis deepened as the government acknowledged it’s heading for recession and a former central banker spoke of “some panic” in the financial system as oil prices plunged. Speaking a day after President Vladimir Putin said Russia is scrapping a proposed $45 billion pipeline to Europe, the government predicted the economy will contract next year and canceled a bond auction. It was also forced to pledge 39.95 billion rubles ($740 million) to support OAO Gazprombank, at least the third lender to secure a capital injection since U.S. and European Union sanctions curbed their ability to borrow.

• Putin, Oil and Ruble All Headed for 63 May Be No Russian Joke. Heard the one about Vladimir Putin, the oil price and the ruble’s value against the dollar? They will all hit 63 next year. That’s the joke doing the rounds of the Kremlin as the Russian government digs in to weather international sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine. According to at least five people close to Putin, pressure from the U.S. and Europe is galvanizing Russians to withstand a siege on their economy. The black humor is part of an image of defiance not seen since the Cold War. As the economy enters its first recession in more than five years, the ruble depreciates to records and money exits the country, Putin’s supporters are closing ranks and say he’s sure to run for another six-year term in 2018. 

• Iran-Backed Hackers Target Airports, Carriers: Report. (video)

• China Orders Stricter Checks on Local Debt as Sales Surge. China is tightening checks on local bond sales in its latest bid to reduce risks as debt loads surge to a record amid slowing economic growth. 

• China Loan Data Understates Exposure to Property Risks, S&P Says.

• Port Hedland Iron Ore Shipments to China Drop to Seven-Month Low. Iron ore shipments to China from Australia’s Port Hedland declined to the lowest level in seven months as the world’s biggest buyer ordered some mills to curb output to cut pollution before a global summit in November. Shipments from the world’s biggest bulk-export terminal totaled 29 million metric tons last month, the lowest since April, according to port authority data. That compares with 31.7 million tons in October and 22.3 million a year earlier, data showed. Total exports were 34.4million tons from a record 37.5 million in October and 28.1 million in November 2013.

• Japanese Workers See Wages Drop for 16th Month on Inflation. Japanese wages adjusted for inflation dropped for a sixteenth straight month as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe faces an election focused on his efforts to spur economic growth. Earning declined 2.8 percent in October from a year earlier, the labor ministry said today, following data last week showing households cut spending for a seventh month. 

• Oil Investors May Be Running Off a Cliff They Can’t See. (video) A growing minority of investors and regulators are probing the possibility that untapped deposits of oil, gas and coal -- valued at trillions of dollars globally -- could become stranded assets as governments adopt stricter climate change policies. 

• Oil Rally Fizzles; Kurds Reach Deal on Exports With Iraq. WTI for January delivery fell $1.17, or 1.7 percent, to $67.83 a barrel at 12:34 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The volume of all futures traded was 5.6 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day. Futures climbed 4.3 percent yesterday, the biggest gain since Aug. 3, 2012, after earlier touching $63.72, the least since July 2009. Prices are down 31 percent this year. 

• Copper Falls for Fifth Time in Six Sessions on Dollar, Economies. Copper futures for March delivery fell 0.2 percent to settle at $2.8915 a pound at 1:18 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Yesterday, the price jumped 1.8 percent, the most since Sept. 16, after touching $2.7775, the lowest since June 9, 2010.

CNBC:

• Here's the HFT paper that has Wall St freaking out.

ZeroHedge:

• Images From A Dark Detroit: "Major Cable Failure" Sparks Widespread Power Outage.

• Close Encounter Between NATO F-16 And Russian MiG-31 Caught On Tape. (video)

• Citi Shutters Lavaflow - 5th Largest 'Dark Pool' In America.

• Government Construction Spending Surges Most Since 2006. (graph)

• Russian Ruble Crashes To New Record Lows - Intervention Imminent? (graph)

• After Abysmal Thanksgiving Spending, Cyber Monday Is Latest Dud, Rising Less Than Half 2013 Pace. (graph)

Business Insider:

• This Drone Footage Of A Desolate Detroit Looks Like Something Out Of 'The Walking Dead'. (video)

• The US Army Is Sending Another 100 Tanks To Eastern Europe As Ukraine Unrest Continues.

• The Oil Crash May Be About Something Much Worse Than A Supply Glut. (graph)

Telegraph:

• OPEC: Saudi Prince says Riyadh won't cut oil unless others follow. Saudi Arabia's former spy chief Prince Turki said world's biggest oil exporter won't surrender market share to anyone.

interfax-Ukraine:

• Russian GDP to contract 0.8% in 2015 - Econ Ministry forecast. The Russian Economic Development Ministry now forecasts that GDP will decline 0.8% in 2015 compared with GDP growth of 1.2% contained in the forecast prepared in September, Deputy Economic Development Minister Alexei Vedev said at a briefing on Tuesday. The main cause for the significant change in the forecast is the reduction in the assumed average price of Urals crude oil next year to $80 per barrel from $100 previously.