Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 

Bloomberg: 

• Merkel’s G-7 Faces Confluence of Deadlines on Greece to Russia. In June 2007, the last time Chancellor Angela Merkel hosted a Group of Eight summit, she was unaware that the world’s leaders stood on the edge of a global financial precipice. Now down one member after Russia’s exclusion last year after it annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula, Merkel’s G-7 faces a series of existential crises that are in large part hers to solve. Greece’s five-year battle to stay solvent runs the almost daily risk of failure, the European Union is struggling to maintain unanimity on sanctions against Russia, and nuclear talks with Iran are touch-and-go. Those are challenges that President Barack Obama will press European leaders to heed to ensure unity among the world’s leading advanced economies.

• Greece Is First Country to Defer IMF Payment Since 1980s. (video)

• China’s Online Lending Boom Spurs Startups, Investment and Risk. Though peer-to-peer lending was pioneered in the U.S. by companies such as LendingClub Corp., China is where it’s really taking off. Internet-based peer lenders there gave out at least $32.5 billion in loans last year, almost quadruple the rest of the world combined, according to U.K. investment bank Liberum Capital Ltd. It predicts lending in China will almost double this year to $60 billion versus $11.7 billion in the U.S., the second-largest market. In peer-to-peer lending, companies use the Internet to quickly match borrowers and lenders at better rates than banks. 

• Asian Stocks Retreat for Fifth Day as Greece Delays Debt Payment. Asian stocks fell for a fifth day, with the regional benchmark index heading for its second week of losses, following a decline in U.S. equities as Greece asked for a deferral on its debt payments. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.3 percent to 148.85 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, heading for a 1.7 percent decline this week amid a selloff in bonds and commodities.

• Oil Set for Weekly Drop as Glut Seen Persisting After OPEC Meet. Oil headed for the biggest weekly drop since March amid speculation OPEC will maintain its output target at a meeting on Friday, leaving the market oversupplied. Futures were little changed in London, poised for a 5.3 percent decline through June 5. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will continue its battle to retain market share, according to Maria van der Hoeven, the executive director of the International Energy Agency. The 12-member group is forecast to keep its daily production target of 30 million barrels unchanged at the meeting in Vienna.

• Whatever OPEC Decides, Oil Supplies Are Rising From All Sides. No matter what OPEC says Friday about its production target, the outcome is sure to be more oil. Iran, Iraq and Libya said this week they plan to add millions of barrels to the market this year. Saudi Arabia, the biggest member in the group, is already pumping the most in three decades. And executives from the world’s biggest oil companies pledged to keep expanding by cutting costs and focusing on the most promising drilling sites. The contest for market share is proving more important than price as the Saudis seek to undercut higher-cost producers while costs keep dropping. The competition is intensifying because producers are eager to sell ever more oil even as world demand slows. 

• Goldman(GS) Said to Near U.S. Settlement Exceeding $2 Billion. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is in talks to pay $2 billion to $3 billion to settle a probe into its sales of mortgage bonds leading up to the financial crisis, according to a person with direct knowledge of the situation. The investment bank could reach a deal with the U.S. Justice Department within weeks, the person said, asking not to be identified because the negotiations aren’t public.

Wall Street Journal:

• 5 Things to Watch in the May Jobs Report. 

• China’s IPO Market Leaves U.S. in the Dust. Mainland and Hong Kong exchanges together far surpass U.S. in initial offerings this year.

• The Clinton ‘Charity’ Begins at Home. Employment rolls for the Clinton Foundation show scads of political operatives—but this doesn’t seem to bother the IRS. The scandal of the century at the IRS was that agency’s secret targeting of conservative nonprofits. Perhaps a close second is the scandal of what the IRS hasn’t been investigating: the Clinton Foundation. 

• Islamic State’s Global Expansion. After years of denial, the U.S. response must now go beyond countering ISIS in Iraq and Syria. As Islamic State advances in the northern Syrian province of Aleppo, there is a deadly twist in the war. The radical Islamist group, also known as ISIS or ISIL, is now expanding in roughly a dozen countries across Africa, the Middle East and Asia by exploiting local grievances, doling out money and leveraging its battlefield successes.

Fox News:

• ISIS shows off US gear seized from Iraqis in fighting near Fallujah. A new video from ISIS reportedly depicts the terrorist army showing off U.S. military equipment seized from Iraq troops in fierce fighting near Fallujah. The 10-minute video shows live action from skirmishes in the town of Karmah, just east of Fallujah. The black-clad jihadists are shown using small arms and several rocket-propelled grenades. One scene features an ISIS sniper shooting at Iraqi military positions near the town, and another shows a suicide bomber identified as “Turkistani” being deployed.

MarketWatch.com: 

• TED spread suggests correction may be coming. (graph)

CNBC:

• SEC investigating whether activist funds colluded: Report. (video) The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is reportedly probing whether funds run by some activist investors worked together without disclosing their partnerships.

Zero Hedge: 

• Greece Unable To Make €300 Million IMF Payment, Requests "Bundling".

• China Blamed For "Largest Theft Of US Government Data Ever" - 95% Of Federal Employees Affected.

• The "Better Than Cash Alliance" Has An Orwellian Plan.

• 40 Million People Will Be Out Of Work Next Year, OECD Warns. (graph)

• Looking For The Next Big One: Part 1, Orderly Or Not? (graph)

• Volatility Explodes: China, Bunds Crash Then Smash; Dow, S&P500 Tumble Below Key Support Levels. (graph)

• 3 Things: Autos, Old People, Buybacks.

• Vanguard To Buy Mainland China Shares For $69 Billion EM Index Fund.

Business Insider:

• Greece's debt talks are falling apart.

• Head of Silicon Valley's most important startup farm says we're in a 'mega-bubble' that won't last.

• The FDA just backed a drug people are calling 'female viagra'.

• This is the US economy's most disappointing chart. (graph)

• The drop in oil prices is crushing Asia's investment banks.

• The Obama administration is getting impatient with Russia.

Reuters:

• U.S.-based stock funds attract $6.2 bln in latest week -Lipper.

Telegraph: 

• Greece misses IMF payment in warning shot as showdown with Europe escalates. No developed country has ever skipped a payment to the IMF - but Greek sources say they were provoked.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.5 +1.0 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 61.75 +2.0 basis points.

• S&P 500 futures -.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.12%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for May is estimated at 225K versus 223K in April.

• The Unemployment Rate is estimated at 5.4% versus 5.4% in April.

• Average Hourly Earnings for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in April.

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for April is estimated at $16.0B versus $20.523B in March.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Dudley speaking, Eurozone GDP report and the OPEC meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Global Growth Worries, Greece Deal Concerns, China Bubble Fears, Technology/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.05 +10.18%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.09 -.12%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.60 +1.59%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 63.94 +2.81%

• ISE Sentiment Index 84.0 -37.3%

• Total Put/Call 1.08 +18.68%

• NYSE Arms 1.53 +53.27% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.20 +1.60%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,143.0 -.54%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 74.63 +.48%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.39 -4.21%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 60.83 +1.69%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 302.54 +2.27%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.04 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 26.75 -1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.

• Yield Curve 164.0 -5.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $64.77/Metric Tonne +2.27%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -50.50 +1.0 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.40 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -19.50 -.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.84 -1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -60 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -242 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -75 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• Greece Defers IMF Payment as Merkel Warns Crisis Far From Over. Greece became the first country to defer a payment to the International Monetary Fund since the 1980s as its game of brinkmanship with creditors goes down to the wire. With Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras getting ready to address parliament on Friday after receiving a list of creditors’ demands, the step underscores the state of the country’s shriveling finances. While international officials have reported some progress in recent days, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said “we’re still far from reaching a conclusion.”
• Germany Warns of Eastern Ukraine Escalation Risk After Clashes. Germany warned that the conflict in Ukraine was at risk of spinning out of control after a pickup in fighting on Wednesday resulted in the biggest clashes in three months. Fighting subsided after the country’s military said it repelled an attack by as many as 1,000 pro-Russian separatists on the Donetsk-region town of Maryinka. Five Ukrainian soldiers were killed and 39 wounded during the past 24 hours, Yuriy Biryukov, a military adviser to President Petro Poroshenko, said on Facebook on Thursday. The ruble continued to drop.
• Bombings Hit Saudi Fault Line as Islamic State Widens War. Waist-high concrete barriers are being installed around the Al-Anoud mosque in eastern Saudi Arabia, and young Shiite men in yellow vests search worshipers arriving for midday prayers. The asphalt outside is still charred from the suicide bomb that killed four people there last week. “We’re trying to make people safe,” said Ahmed Hafeef, a 21-year-old member of the security committee that’s sprung up as locals seek to prevent a repeat attack. “After what happened, there are many volunteers.”
• Bond Rout Wipes Out 2015 Gains as Traders Stay Glued to Screens. The global bond market selloff has erased all of this year’s gains as historic market moves from Germany to the U.S. and Japan whipsaw traders. After being up as much as 2.3 percent as of mid-April, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Index of bonds with a total face value of $41 trillion is now down 0.4 percent for the year. Bond traders have been caught off guard by signs the worldwide economy is likely to avoid mass deflation and by improvement in the euro zone’s economy, leaving little incentive to own debt securities with yields that in some cases are below zero. Fixed income continued its slide on Thursday, a day after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said investors should get used to the heightened volatility they’ve seen in recent weeks.
• GM(GM) Sales Slump Deepens in China Even After Discounts. General Motors Co. reported a second month of sales declines in China, its largest market, despite cutting prices on 40 models across its Buick, Chevrolet and Cadillac brands. GM and its China joint ventures sold 252,567 vehicles in May, a drop of 4 percent from a year earlier, according to a statement on its website. The decline was mainly due to a changeover and phasing out of older models, the company said.
• China Stocks Close Higher After Margin Curbs Spark 5.4% Rout. The ChiNext index of smaller companies fell 1 percent, paring a drop of 7.2 percent. Golden Sun Securities Co. removed ChiNext stocks from its list of shares eligible for margin trading, citing the gauge’s recent gains and high price-to-earnings ratios.  
• Emerging-Market Stocks Slump Ninth Day as Greek Debt Talks Stall. Emerging-market stocks declined for a ninth day as Greece’s talks with creditors stalled and concern mounted that strengthening economies in developed nations will damp demand for riskier assets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.8 percent to 987.57 at 12:33 p.m. in New York, set for the longest losing streak since March.
• European Stocks Decline for Third Day Amid Greek Debt Impasse. (video) European stocks fell to the lowest level in almost a month after another round of talks failed to end a Greek debt stalemate. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.8 percent to 392.65 at the close of trading. It trimmed losses after the International Monetary Fund urged the Federal Reserve to postpone its rate increase expected this year until the first half of 2016. Stocks tumbled as much as 1.9 percent earlier as bonds slumped and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras rejected proposals by creditors to help unlock more aid. The country owes the IMF four payments this month, even as its euro region bailout expires. The ASE Index slid 1.3 percent, the most among western-European peers.
• Consumer Comfort in U.S. Falls to Lowest Level Since November.
  Consumer confidence in the U.S. slipped last week to a six-month low as views of the buying climate softened, indicating a re-acceleration in household spending may be slow to materialize. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to 40.5 in the seven days ended May 31 from 40.9 in the prior week. It marked the eighth straight week of declines, the longest such period since the survey began in 1985, after the index reached an almost eight-year high in April.

ZeroHedge:

• Hedge Funds Have Never Been Longer, Short Exposure 25% Less Than Before Last Market Peak. (graph)
• The Real Reason Why There Is No Bond Market Liquidity Left.
• Ukraine 'Mobilizes' Right Sector Neo-Nazis Amid Renewed Fighting; NATO Points Finger, Russia Responds.
• Overnight, In Chinese Stocks... (graph)
• What Does Credit "Know" About Payrolls? (graph)
• Spot The Very Odd One Out: "How Much Longer Can This Divergence Continue?" (graph)
• C-Suite Gamblers - The Real "Dumb Money" Inflating The Bubble. (graph)
• IMF Panics - Slashes US Growth Forecasts, Demands Fed Stay On Hold For Another Year.
• The Real Reason The US Economy Simply Won't Grow: Lowest Worker Productivity In 22 Years. (graph)
• Initial Jobless Claims Hover Near 42 Year Lows. (graph)
• Tsipras Sticks To "Red Line" Rhetoric Cornered By Party Radicals.

Reuters:

• EU, IMF Said to Make Demands Crossing Greek PM 'Red Lines'. EU, IMF demand Greece not roll back pension reform or make unilateral moves on labor issues, crossing Greek PM Tsipras's red lines, citing people familiar with the matter. EU/IMF creditors ask Athens for VAT hikes worth 1% of GDP, pension cuts worth 1% of GDP; ask Greece to save EUR800M by scrapping low-income pensioners' benefit through 2016.

Deutsche Presse-Agentur:

• Schaeuble Rejects More Debt Forgiveness for Greece. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble says debt foregiveness for Greece would mean an expropriation of savers.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.32%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Tankers -2.77% 2) Defense -1.81% 3) Alt Energy -1.73%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• AER, OXLC, VWR, OPK, NAV, LE, VRTV, VRA, SJM, MOH, WGP, WBK, LNG, HRZN, HRTX, MIK, STCK, USLV, VRNT, MRKT, ARDX, PBYI, E, VDSI, RXDX, PBYI, STE, XBIT, LC, CYBX and NAV

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) OPK 2) VNQ 3) CMI 4) XLI 5) HEDJ
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) VRA 2) DDS 3) BZH 4) DOW 5) BA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.52%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +4.65% 2) Telecom +.25% 3) REITs +.11%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BRLI, FIVE, DISH, MR, ABB, TMUS, WYNN, LVS, MPEL and CAVM

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ETFC 2) OPK 3) ATML 4) CCI 5) GSAT
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LB 2) CTCT 3) SBAC 4) FIVE 5) CIEN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running .8% Above 100-day average
• 0 Sectors Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 27.1% of Issues Advancing, 69.5% Declining
• 29 New 52-Week Highs, 47 New Lows
• 53.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.6
• Vix 14.58
• Total Put/Call .93
• TRIN/Arms 1.23