Saturday, July 18, 2015

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:     
  • Khamenei Says Iran’s Regional Alliances Intact After U.S. Deal. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the nuclear deal with the West won’t change the Islamic Republic’s relationship with the U.S. or its alliances in the region. In his first speech since the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) was announced in Vienna July 14, Khamenei thanked President Hassan Rouhani and Iran’s negotiators for their “hard work and efforts” and asked officials to carefully consider the text of the deal and allow it to run its course through the approval process without misunderstanding its content. “Whether this text is approved or not, we will not cease the support of our friends in the region,” Khamenei said in an address to hundreds of worshippers in Tehran that was broadcast live on state TV. “And our policy towards arrogant America will not change at all.” Iran will continue backing its allies in the Middle East -- where its policies “differ 180 degrees from America’s” -- including its support for Syria’s government, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Yemeni people and Palestinians, Khamenei said.
  • Greek Banks to Reopen as Tsipras’s New Cabinet Takes Over. Greek banks will reopen on Monday as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras rebuilds his government to shore up support for a bailout agreed with the country’s creditors. The banks, which have remained closed since June 29, will open July 20, the government said on Saturday. Most capital controls concerning withdrawals and money transfers will remain, and while the daily limit was held at 60 euros ($65), a cumulative limit of 420 euros a week was set, it said. Lenders will reopen a week after Tsipras and creditors agreed to a bailout program and Greek lawmakers approved legislation needed to release funding for the country. Hours after the vote, the European Central Bank approved emergency financing for the country’s lenders and the European Union finalized a bridge loan on Friday to provide a stop-gap until a full three-year rescue program, worth as much as 86 billion euros, is settled.
  • China tightens grip on online lenders after stocks plunge. China tightened control of online financing, saying it is looking to develop healthy industry growth amid criticism the platforms contributed to an equities plunge that wiped $US3 trillion off the market. All client funds must be parked at established banks and Internet finance firms will need approval from financial as well as cyberspace regulators, the People's Bank of China said in a statement on its website on Saturday. They must also provide sufficient disclosure and send risk reminders to clients.
  • Brazil’s Political Crisis Grows as Top Rousseff Ally Rebels. The turmoil swirling around President Dilma Rousseff and Brazil’s other top politicians grew more intense as the head of the lower house announced an open rebellion against her. Lower house President Eduardo Cunha urged his party, the biggest in the country, to abandon the ruling coalition and identified himself a member of the opposition. Cunha made his announcement in a morning press conference Friday following allegations he received kickbacks in exchange for a contract with the state-run oil company. He denied wrongdoing.
  • Emerging Markets Had Biggest Outflow Since 2009, JPMorgan Says. Capital outflows from developing countries reached $120 billion last quarter, the most since 2009, fueled by an exodus from China amid concern over the strength of the country’s economy, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. It was a reversal from the first quarter when emerging markets had $80 billion of inflows, analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note Friday. Investors pulled $142 billion from China between April and June. That extended the total outflow from the world’s second-largest economy over the past five quarters to $520 billion, wiping out all the inflows since 2011 when the country’s growth started to slow, the analysts said.
  • Dollar Emerges Champion With Yellen Cementing Higher-Rates Path. The dollar recorded its best week in two months after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reaffirmed she expected the central bank to raise interest rates this year for the first time in almost a decade. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed to a four-month high after a report showed annualized consumer prices rose for the first time in six months in June. The greenback, which was the best performer among a group of 10 developed-nation currencies in the past month, gained this week as investors shifted focus to the outlook for U.S. rates after concern over Greece and China receded. 
  • Commodity Meltdown Deepens as Expanding Gluts Drag Down Shares. There are few places left to hide from the commodity meltdown that’s dragging down shares of miners and energy producers and sending gold prices to their lowest since 2010. The Bloomberg Commodity Index fell in a four-day selloff that’s the worst losing streak in three months. Brent oil capped the longest run of weekly declines since January, copper is languishing near its lowest since 2009 and wheat fell for a sixth session.
  • Traders Align With Fed on Inflation as Rate-Hike Bets Intensify. After chiding the Federal Reserve earlier this year for having overly bullish inflation expectations, the Treasury market is starting to concede that consumer prices are set to move higher. Traders are gravitating toward Fed Chair Janet Yellen's stance that the rout in oil prices will fade, inflation will tick up and the U.S. economy will be able to withstand the first increase in interest rates in almost a decade.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Chattanooga Shootings Spur Unity in Grief but Stir Concerns Over Faith. Some in largely Christian region express worries about Islam. The attacks on two military sites have not only stirred an outpouring of grief and patriotism in this city set amid the sylvan ridges and mountains of East Tennessee, but they have also cast in sharp relief tensions over non-Christian newcomers. On Saturday, a steady stream of hundreds of people came from Chattanooga and all over...
ZeroHedge: 
Telegraph:
BBC: 
  • Greece debt crisis: Reforms 'will fail' - Varoufakis. Former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has told the BBC that economic reforms imposed on his country by creditors are "going to fail", ahead of talks on a huge bailout. Mr Varoufakis said Greece was subject to a programme that will "go down in history as the greatest disaster of macroeconomic management ever"
  • Iraq violence: Car bomb kills scores in mainly Shia town. A car bomb has killed 120 people and injured at least 130 at a busy market in an Iraqi town, officials have said. The attack happened in the predominantly Shia town of Khan Bani Saad, north of the capital Baghdad. Children were among those dead in the explosion, which came as people celebrated the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. The Islamic State (IS) group, which control swathes of the country, has said it was behind the attack.
Sina:
  • Shenzhen Exchange Warns of Risks in Structured Funds. Shenzhen Stock Exchange asked members to warn investors of risks in structured funds especially junior tranches amid big fluctuation in stock market recently, citing a circular from the bourse. Members should be prepared to prevent from investors' extreme actions or mass events and report any potential key risks to regulators.

Market Week in Review

  • S&P 500 2,126.54 +2.41%*
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The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.


*5-Day Change

Friday, July 17, 2015

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 2,126.54 +2.41%
  • DJIA 18,086.45 +1.84%
  • NASDAQ 5,210.14 +4.25%
  • Russell 2000 1,267.09 +1.20%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 33.22 +.82%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 141.26 +.95% 
  • Wilshire 5000 22,209.45 +2.15%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,033.15 +3.10%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,024.97 +1.37%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 514.33 +1.88%
  • Solactive US Cyclical 130.04 +.45%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,060.24 +5.04%
  • Transports 8,293.61 +1.12%
  • Utilities 575.42 +.78%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 122.52 +4.83%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 38.76 -.06%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,216.13 +1.96%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 999.76 +.85%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 236,248 +.82%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 7 +377
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 18.75 -33.53%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 264,387 -10.73%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,733,695 +2.47%
  • Total Put/Call .84 -16.0%
  • OEX Put/Call .64 -27.27%
  • ISE Sentiment 96.0 +41.18%
  • NYSE Arms 1.35 +46.74%
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.95 -29.0%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.35 -2.29%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.98 -8.27%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.12 -8.87%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 16,913 +1.06%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.632 Trillion -.05%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$2.446 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 30.8 +10.4%
  • AAII % Bears 23.2 -20.4%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 214.54 -1.70%
  • Crude Oil 50.89 -3.65%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 192.86 -5.04%
  • Natural Gas 2.87 +3.61%
  • Heating Oil 166.41 -4.39%
  • Gold 1,131.90 -2.62%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 158.63 +.30%
  • Copper 249.60 -1.81%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 247.25 USD/Ton -.83%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 50.66 USD/Ton +1.12%
  • Lumber 278.20 -5.76%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,137.52 -2.09%
Economy
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate .6% -60.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0064 +293.93%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 125.81 +.09%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -18.0 +3.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index .7 +4.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.70 -8.8 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 54.0% chance of no change, 46.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 7/29
  • # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 5.83 -21.5%
  • US Dollar Index 97.86 +2.18%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.35 -1.98%
  • Yield Curve 168.0 -9.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.35% -7.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.456 Trillion +.29%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.47 +3.35%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 230.0 +.22%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 21.29 -14.34%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 57.72 -3.67%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 289.98 -2.86%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 64.82 -2.54%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 704.75 -4.79%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 311.75 -4.92%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.18 +.79%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.83% -6.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 27.25 +.5 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.0 -1.75 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 65.40 -5.77%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,510.0 +18.89%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 68.22 -14.07%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 296.30 -.76%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 97.0 +6.0 basis points
  • M1 Money Supply $3.035 Trillion -.35%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,028.50 +.8%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 282,500 +3,000
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.6% -10 basis points
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.09% +5 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 376.10 -1.93%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 43.20 -.3 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +1.40% -10.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.76/gallon unch.
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,048 +19.91%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 842.87 +4.73%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 45.0 +20.0%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 262,603 +2.98%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +3.1%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +.2%
Leading Sectors
  • Internet +8.8%
  • Biotech +6.8%
  • Banks +3.2%
  • Oil Tankers +2.8%
  • Computer Services +2.6%
Lagging Sectors
  • Hospitals -1.7% 
  • Homebuilders -1.9%
  • Oil Service -4.4%
  • Gold & Silver -8.1%
  • Coal -13.0%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)
  • ANAC, REMY, ZGNX, OCUL, RCPT, TE, NTCT, NXST, BEAT and PSMT
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (4)
  • CUDA, HMSY, FCS and VNCE
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower on Fed Rate Hike Concerns, Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Commodity/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Slightly Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.94 -1.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.61 -.29%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.25 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation t58.56 -2.30%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 83.0 -27.83%
  • Total Put/Call .79 -10.23%
  • NYSE Arms 1.38 +15.75% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.21 -.24%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,479.0 +15.9%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.42 -3.11%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.19 -1.83%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 57.72 -2.38%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 298.63 +.92%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.18 +.20%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 +1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 27.25 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.25 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 168.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $50.66/Metric Tonne n/a
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -20.8 n/a
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -.3 n/a
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.30 n/a
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.84 -1.0 basis point
  • # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 5.83 -.70
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +75 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -230 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating + open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Friday Watch

Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.75 -1.75 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 59.0 -.75 basis point.
  • S&P 500 futures -.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.30%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (ALV)/1.55
  • (CMA)/.75
  • (GE)/.29
  • (HON)/1.49
  • (JBHT)/.90
  • (KSU)/1.02
  • (PGR)/.55
  • (STI)/.81
  • (GWW)/3.05
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Housing Starts for June are estimated to rise to 1106K versus 1036K in May.
  • Building Permits for June are estimated to fall to 1150K versus 1275K in May.
  • The CPI for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in May.
  • The CPI ex Food & Energy for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in May. 
  • Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY for June.
10:00 am EST
  • Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for July is estimated to fall to 96.0 versus 96.1 in June.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The (BURL) annual meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by real estate and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.