Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,931.34 -1.36%

• DJIA 16,314.67 -.43%

• NASDAQ 4,686.49 -2.91%

• Russell 2000 1,122.79 -3.49%

• S&P 500 High Beta 28.72 -3.95%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 114.10 -6.58% 

• Wilshire 5000 20,134.52 -1.75%

• Russell 1000 Growth 946.51 -2.14%

• Russell 1000 Value 922.47 -.97%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 488.02 +.74%

• Solactive US Cyclical 115.84 -3.19%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 996.02 -1.42%

• Transports 7,850.62 -2.31%

• Utilities 572.36 +1.30%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 100.67 -1.92%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 32.65 -4.70%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,153.0 -1.87%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,026.67 +.01%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 226,018 -1.56%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -999 -911

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 20.0 -41.54%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 259,429 +8.37%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,606,217 -5.68%

• Total Put/Call 1.29 +14.16%

• OEX Put/Call 1.42 -28.28%

• ISE Sentiment 53.0 -1.85%

• NYSE Arms 1.02 -62.08%

• Volatility(VIX) 23.62 +6.01%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 64.81 +.95%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.59 +4.64%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 12.89 +9.14%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,063.10 +.69%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.660 Trillion +.53%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.093 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 32.1 -3.4%

• AAII % Bears 28.7 -1.5%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 195.71 +.79%

• Crude Oil 45.37 +.80%

• Reformulated Gasoline 139.59 +1.87%

• Natural Gas 2.57 -1.65%

• Heating Oil 151.60 +.88%

• Gold 1,145.70 +.60%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 145.57 -3.34%

• Copper 228.20 -4.11%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 199.0 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 56.98 USD/Ton -1.23%

• Lumber 216.60 -7.03%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,022.22 +1.91%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -1.9% +30.0 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0408 unch.

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 126.21 -.15%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -25.0 +2.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.9 +1.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -24.7 -1.0 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 82.0% chance of no change, 18.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 10/28
• # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 5.70 +13.1%

• US Dollar Index 96.16 +1.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.07 -.41%

• Yield Curve 147.0 +2.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.17% +4.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.459 Trillion +.22%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 6.98 +10.8%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 252.0 +4.34%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 21.53 +5.44%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 86.23 +10.12%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 277.93 +6.92%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 71.0 +6.28%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 849.37 +11.94%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 372.66 +6.0%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 119.69 +.48%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.47% -9.0 basis points

• TED Spread 32.50 -.5 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.0 -2.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.50 +1.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 86.73 +12.8%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,036.0 -10.05%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 91.10 +17.0%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 380.67 +12.5%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 120.0 +2.0 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $3.028 Trillion +.19%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,030.5 -.8%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 271,750 -750

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.7% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.86% +5 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 456.10 +13.88%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 41.9 +1.7 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +1.30% -20.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.29/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 922.0 -3.94%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 814.09 -1.58%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.50 +7.14%

• Rail Freight Carloads 281,414 +16.37%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -.9%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -5.3%

Leading Sectors

• Banks +1.4%

• Utilities +1.3%

• Insurance +1.0%

• Restaurants +.7%

• I-Banks +.7%

Lagging Sectors

• Steel -7.3% 

• Gaming -8.1%

• Oil Tankers -8.1%

• Biotech -13.0%

• Coal -19.9%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (9)

• CCRN, RPD, FNFG, CNCE, SWAY, P, BMR, STE and CORE

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (35)

• HSTM, TWOU, APLE, CLDT, TREX, LEN/B, ZFGN, THO, PTLA, ZAYO, SNCR, BLD, THRM, SPWH, NTRA, GI, EIGI, TEN, XENT, SPW, LQ, XNCR, MOS, ANIP, MNK, VRTX, GKOS, NRG, DPLO, RTRX, BPMC, LXRX, HZNP, DYN and PCRX

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on China-Bubble Bursting Fears, Fed Rate-Hike Worries, Surging European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Biotech/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.06 -6.01%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.02 +.14%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.95 -.84%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 62.81 -3.74%

• ISE Sentiment Index 51.0 -26.09%

• Total Put/Call 1.21 +18.63%

• NYSE Arms 1.17 +23.07% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 87.78 +2.06%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,033.0 +2.44%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 90.01 -1.85%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.53 +1.51%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 86.23 +.57%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 380.87 +3.0%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 119.68 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.0 -.5 basis point

• TED Spread 32.5 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.5 +1.75 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.53 +.02%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield -.02% -2.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 147.0 +3.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $56.98/Metric Tonne +3.04%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -25.0 +2.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.9 -1.0 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -24.7 -.2 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.47 -2.0 basis points
• # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 5.70 +.08

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +71 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -15 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -24 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• China's Stocks Fall as Capital Outflows Hit Record in August. China’s stocks capped a weekly loss after capital outflows hit a record and concern grew the nation’s economic slowdown is worsening and the government is scaling back support for equities. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.6 percent to 3,092.35 at the close, wiping out this week’s gain. About eight stocks slid for every one that advanced as trading volumes tumbled 33 percent from the 30-day average. An estimated $141.66 billion left China in August, exceeding the previous record of $124.62 billion in July, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Technology stocks, the best performers this week, slumped the most among industry groups.Trading on China’s stock market is waning before a week-long holiday shutdown that starts on Oct. 1.  

• Obama Will Hit You 'Like a Pack of Hyenas,' Chinese Warn Xi on the Web. Leader's visit brings out the drive-by commenters, who call U.S. a 'bully nation,' then turn their scorn on their own government. That ambivalence is on display in China’s blogosphere, where explosions of patriotic outrage at how Xi's American hosts are treating him are mixed with sarcastic references to the Chinese government as censor and leader of a nation of copycats.   

• China's Slowdown: Just How Bad Is it? (video)

• Breaking Down the Challenges of China's Economy. (video)

• Emerging Markets Slowdown Concerns Robert Kimmitt. (video)

• Are We Headed for a Global Recession? (video)

• Quantitative Easing's Global Inflation Failures. (video)

• Mexico -- Not China or Brazil -- Is Stock Bears' Biggest Target. The world’s stock investors have crowned Mexico their favorite market to bet against. Short interest in BlackRock’s $1.2 billion iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF is at more than 40 percent of shares outstanding, compared with 13 percent at the start of May, the most among more than 1,100 exchange-traded-funds tracked by Bloomberg with at least a $300 million market cap. By that measure, traders are the most bearish on Mexican stocks since February 2009, according to data compiled by Markit.

• European Bonds Slide After Yellen Signals Rate Liftoff in 2015. Europe’s government bonds followed Treasuries lower after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen confirmed the U.S. central bank is poised to raise interest rates this year. Longer-dated debt underperformed, with the yield on 10-year German bunds, Europe’s benchmark sovereign securities, climbing from the lowest in a month. Yellen said in a speech Thursday that she and most other Fed policy makers anticipate lifting rates by year-end. Euro-zone bonds rallied at the end of last week after the Fed kept its key rate at a record low and as speculation built that the European Central Bank would expand its asset-purchase program to boost inflation.

• European Stocks Rebound as Yellen Clarifies Fed Rate Policy. European stocks jumped from an eight-month low after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said she’s ready to raise rates this year, indicating recent market turmoil won’t derail the U.S. recovery. Her comments helped clarify the Fed’s thinking, after the central bank’s decision to hold rates last week confused investors about the trajectory of U.S. rates and increased stock volatility. Following a selloff yesterday that wiped out its 2015 gains, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 2.8 percent higher today.

• Why the Fed Is So Focused on Emerging Markets. (video)

• Treasury Notes Fall as Yellen Sees Fed Rate Increase This Year. Treasury notes fell, extending this week’s pattern of alternating between gains and losses, after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank is poised to raise interest rates this year. Yields on shorter maturities, which are among the most sensitive to what the Fed does with its benchmark rate, rose as Yellen said in a speech Thursday that most policy makers including herself anticipate increasing rates by year-end. Government bonds from the U.K. and Germany also fell. Treasuries remained lower after a report showed the U.S. economy expanded more than previously forecast in the second quarter. “Yellen’s comments were a reminder that, although the tone may have been softer than expected at the last meeting, her own view is that she expects them to hike this year,” said Allan von Mehren, chief analyst at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen. “Maybe the market was starting to doubt that.”

• Analyst Downgrades Caterpillar Amid ‘Machinery Meltdown’. (video) The pain might not be over.

• Google(GOOG) Said to Be Under U.S. Antitrust Scrutiny Over Android. Google Inc. is back under U.S. antitrust scrutiny as officials ask whether the tech giant stifled competitors’ access to its Android mobile-operating system, said two people familiar with the matter. The Federal Trade Commission reached an agreement with the Justice Department to spearhead an investigation of Google’s Android business, the people said. FTC officials have met with technology company representatives who say Google gives priority to its own services on the Android platform, while restricting others, added the people, who asked for anonymity because the matter is confidential.

Wall Street Journal:

• Emerging Markets Go From Bad to Worse. A gauge of emerging-market currencies has fallen to its lowest level in six years. Currencies in emerging markets have taken a turn for the worse, with no signs of reprieve. The Malaysian ringgit plumbed new lows Friday, on track for its largest weekly loss in nearly two decades, while Indonesia’s rupiah fell to a fresh 17-year low, following steep declines in other emerging market currencies earlier in the week. The MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index, a broad gauge of emerging-market...

Fox News:

• Boehner announces resignation, stuns Congress. (video) Whether it was "the right time," or a desire to end "this prolonged leadership turmoil" in the House -- or both -- John Boehner's bombshell announcement Friday to resign as speaker and leave Congress at the end of October had all the markings of a self-described "regular guy with a big job." "Yep," Boehner told reporters, describing the sequence of events leading up to his decision -- which included a morning walk to Starbucks and a stop at the neighborhood diner -- "I think today's the day."

Zero Hedge:

• Is This Why Biotechs Are Tumbling: "Head And Shoulders Top" Spotted In The NBI. (graph)

• The Stock Markets Of The 10 Largest Global Economies Are All Crashing. (graph)

• America Is Losing Faith In The "Recovery". (graph)

• UMich Consumer Confidence Tumbles To Lowest Since October, Worst Drop In 4 Years. (graph)

• US Services Economy "Bounce" Is Dead, "Warning Lights Are Flashing Brighter". (graph)

• Did Janet Yellen Just Shoot Herself In The Foot, Again.

• SurReal: Brazil's Currency Stages Largest Rally In Seven Years On Central Bank "Whatever It Takes" Moment. (graph)

• Final Q2 GDP Revision Spikes To 3.9% From 3.7% On Jump In Consumer Spending. (graph)

• "There IS An Alternative" - Since The End Of QE3, Financial Market Returns Are Negative... Except The US Dollar. (graph)

• Goldman Warns On Limits Of Central Bank Policy: "The Road To Hell Is Paved With Good Intentions".

Business Insider:

• Here's Boehner's most likely replacement.

• Everything we know about the Chinese president's childhood is terrifying.

• Fed's Bullard gave us a great baseball analogy to explain what the Fed is doing wrong. (video)

• A radical Spanish party is set to play kingmaker in Europe's next secession battle.

• BlackBerry(BBRY) posted a quarterly loss, and its stock is getting smoked.

Telegraph:

• VW scandal: Volkswagen shares slump as board prepares to unveil new CEO and emissions cheat affects 2.8m cars in Germany - live. Troubled carmaker Volkswagen is expected to announce a new chief executive today as it looks to rebuild from the emissions cheating scandal. 

• The world economy as we know it is about to be turned on its head. The demographic 'sweet spot' is vanishing. We are on the cusp of a complete reversal, spelling the end of corporate hegemony.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.57%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -4.77% 2) Biotech -2.54% 3) HMOs -1.11%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• FINL, QTWO, VBLT, PETX, AIR, PRQR, FLXN, XPO, SLAB, AMAG, UBIO, VLP, SWFT, PCRX, JAZZ, OMED, IBB, ONCE, HRTX, TCON, SMTC, LJPC, ALDR, MJN, ANIP and SPWH

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LUV 2) NKE 3) HYG 4) ASHR 5) ZOES
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CAT 2) CMI 3) PIR 4) BHI 5) GOOG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.72%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilers +1.95% 2) Banks +1.94% 3) Utilities +1.47%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TWOU, JBL, NKE, CRUS, MOMO and RMBS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) APD 2) SPLS 3) RMD 4) HZNP 5) BCEI
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) JBL 2) BBBY 3) MMM 4) NKE 5) CRUS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running 2.3% Below 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 62.7% of Issues Advancing, 34.3% Declining
• 14 New 52-Week Highs, 58 New Lows
• 21.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 37.0
• Vix 21.7
• Total Put/Call 1.15
• TRIN/Arms .98