Monday, April 11, 2016

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Biotech -.8% 2) Hospitals -.7% 3) Drugs -.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • INSY, CLVS, PHH, CHMA, VRX, TM, JBT, AGN, NOV, UA, ENDP, NSC, BLOX, FMX, WDFC, SON, FLTX, PAHC, SIMO, CAR, BIB, WIRE, FL, SHLM and HUM
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) SHLD 2) PYPL 3) Z 4) COH 5) OIH
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) NOV 2) ENDP 3) VLO 4) UA 5) VRX
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer: 
  • Small-Cap Value +.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +5.3% 2) Steel +3.9% 3) Computer Hardware +1.5% 
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 
  • HTS, ASA, YRD, BAP, SA, USLV, SLW and TAHO
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 
  • 1) STLD 2) AMAT 3) LXK 4) AIG 5) MCD
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 
  • 1) AA 2) BLMN 3) UNH 4) UEPS 5) LGIH
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Sunday, April 10, 2016

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg: 
  • Abenomics rebuked as BlackRock joins $46 billion Japan pull-out. While markets elsewhere are climbing back from a global selloff, investors in Japan see fewer reasons for optimism. For global equity investors and Shinzo Abe, it’s splitsville. Starting in the first days of 2016, foreign traders have been pulling out of Tokyo’s stock market for 13 straight weeks, the longest stretch since 1998. Overseas traders dumped $46 billion of shares as economic reports deteriorated, stimulus from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) backfired and the yen’s surge pressured exporters. The benchmark Topix index is down 17% in 2016, the world’s steepest declines behind Italy. Losing the faith of foreigners would be a blow to the Japanese Prime Minister—they’re the most active traders in a market Abe has held up as a litmus on his growth strategies.
  • Aussie Hazards From Mortgages to Mines Lift Macquarie Bond Risk. Those Australians struggling with mortgage payments and the possibility of damage from the global commodity price slump are helping to inflate bond risk for Macquarie Group Ltd.’s banking unit. The cost of insuring Macquarie Bank notes against non-payment climbed to as much as 172 basis points last month, the highest since June 2013, after the lender flagged a rise in overdue home loans. The Sydney-based bank’s credit-default swaps have increased 40 basis points in 2016, the most in the benchmark Markit iTraxx Australia index, and were at 157 basis points April 7.
  • Emerging Markets That Fueled Agriculture Boom Now Driving a Bust. The expression emerging markets has a whole new meaning for farmers across the globe. In the late 2000s, food demand from China and India’s growing populations sparked a frenzy for agriculture investment and sent prices soaring. Now, the other two big emerging markets -- Russia and Brazil -- are behind the collapse in prices as farmers ramp up grain production and stockpiles swell. Weak currencies make it profitable for growers in those countries to boost output and may prolong the bear market for another three to five years, according to Dan Basse, president of researcher AgResource Co. in Chicago.
  • Bank Sees Low Growth for Latin America as Commodity Boom Fades. Latin American economies will contract this year and face low growth in years to come as nations adjust to the end of a commodity price boom, the Inter-American Development Bank said in its annual outlook. Dragged down by recessions in two of its largest countries, Brazil and Argentina, the region will post a 0.3 percent contraction in 2016 before bouncing back to annual growth of 1.5 percent through 2018, the bank said in a statement released during its annual meeting in Nassau, Bahamas, on Sunday.
  • Panama Furor Rumbles Into Second Week as Global Pressure Mounts. The fallout from the Panama leaks showed no sign of abating as U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron was forced to provide more transparency over his wealth and European officials pledged measures to require companies to report their offshore bank accounts. Cameron will face lawmakers on Monday as he seeks to draw a line under the crisis stemming from information about the use of offshore tax havens leaked from Panama-based law firm Mossack Fonseca. Iceland’s prime minister has resigned, Malta’s government faces a confidence vote and Argentine President Mauricio Macri promised to put his assets in a blind trust after he was linked to two companies listed in Panama.
  • Japanese Stocks Fall as Yen Strengthens, Machine Orders Decline. Japanese stocks fell, extending two weeks of losses, as the yen rallied for a seventh day and a report showed machine orders dropped in February for the first time in three months. The Topix index lost 1.4 percent to 1,269.39 at 9:37 a.m. in Tokyo, with all but two of its 33 industry groups retreating. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 1.3 percent to 15,611.71. The yen traded at 107.99 per dollar, extending gains. Core machine orders slipped 9.2 percent in February from the previous month. Analysts had expected a 12 percent drop.
  • Asian Stocks Decline as Japanese Shares Slump Amid Economic Data. Asian stocks fell, ahead of Chinese data on inflation and factory prices, as Japanese shares retreated amid a slump in machine orders. Energy producers climbed as U.S. oil topped $40 a barrel. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.4 percent to 125.83 as of 9:08 a.m. in Tokyo.
  • Iraq Boosts Oil Production to Record Before Talks to Cap Output. Iraq increased crude output to a record level in March, ahead of a meeting in Qatar of OPEC members and other producers on capping production to curb a global glut. Crude output in OPEC’s second-biggest producer rose to 4.55 million barrels a day last month from 4.46 million barrels in February, according to the state-run Oil Marketing Co. Exports increased to 3.81 million barrels a day in March from 3.23 million the previous month, the company, known as Somo, said in an e-mailed statement.
  • Record Pork-Price Jump Seen Reversing China Bond Advance: Chart. (graph) The price of pigs in China surged a record 61 percent in the first quarter, the most in Shanghai JC Intelligence Co. data going back to 2011. This helped set inflation up for its fifth monthly advance in a row in data due Monday, threatening to halt a tumble in bond yields. “CPI is China Pork Index,” said Hao Hong, chief China strategist at Bocom International, adding that rising inflation may reduce the need for rate cuts and hurt bond prices in the months ahead.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Syrian Government Plans to Retake Aleppo With Russian Support. Move clouds the future of already-fragile cease-fire. Syrian government forces, with support from Russia, are planning an operation to retake Aleppo and battle an Islamist rebel offensive in the region, the Syrian prime minister said Sunday after a week of clashes. The use of Russian firepower in the Syrian government offensive to retake Syria’s largest city, which has been partly controlled by rebels since 2012, clouds the future of upcoming peace talks.
  • Spreads Point to Growing Stress in Japanese Government Bond Market. The gap between the prices at which investors are willing to buy and sell long dated Japanese bonds is growing.  The Bank of Japan enormous stimulus programs are an unmissable presence in the government bond market, and it’s now starting to show some signs of stress. The central bank joined in the negative interest rate club in January, adding to its already Herculean efforts to encourage growth and inflation. The BOJ also now buys almost as much sovereign debt as the government issues, and owns over a third of the total amount outstanding. Japan Macro Advisors suggests that in two years, at its current pace of purchases the central bank will own 50% of the market.
  • Delegate-Selection Fight Plays to Ted Cruz’s Strength. GOP presidential candidate steps up pressure on Donald Trump in state contests. Ted Cruz shut out his Republican presidential rivals in the Colorado delegation-selection contest this weekend, and he is intensifying pressure on front-runner Donald Trump to step up his game in similar state and local conventions that are taking on heightened significance in the campaign’s next phase.
Fox News:
  • Iran to US: Missile program ‘not open to negotiation’. (video) Iran’s foreign minister said Sunday the Islamic Republic’s ballistic missile program is “not open to negotiation” with the United States, seemingly spurning an overture from Secretary of State John Kerry. Kerry said Thursday during a visit to Bahrain that the U.S. and its regional allies were “prepared to work on a new arrangement to find a peaceful solution” to the dispute over recent Iranian ballistic missile tests.
MarketWatch:
 Zero Hedge: Business Insider:
CNN:
  • Rocket strikes in Kabul intended for John Kerry, Taliban say. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry was the intended target of rocket strikes in Afghanistan's capital Saturday, the Taliban said in a statement claiming responsibility for the attacks. The attacks in Kabul on Saturday night came within an hour after Kerry had departed Afghanistan, following a visit aimed at defusing a political crisis in the unity government he helped build.
@Callum_Thomas:
Reuters:
  • U.S. banks' dismal first quarter may spell trouble for 2016. It is only April, but some on Wall Street are already predicting a rotten 2016 for U.S. banks. Analysts say it has been the worst start to the year since the financial crisis in 2007-2008 and expect poor first-quarter results when reporting begins this week. Concerns about economic growth in China, the impact of persistently low oil prices on the energy sector, and near-zero interest rates are weighing on capital markets activity as well as loan growth.
 Financial Times:
  • BlackRock’s(BLK) Larry Fink warns negative rates could hit spending. Negative interest rates risk hitting consumer spending and undermining the economic growth they are intended to encourage, the head of the world’s largest asset management group has warned. Larry Fink, chief executive of BlackRock, said that not enough attention was being given to the effect of negative rates on saving habits in a downbeat annual letter to his shareholders.
  • Global economic recovery ‘in danger of stalling’. In a publication ahead of the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank this week, the index provides sober reading, highlighting sluggish capital investment, falling industrial production and declining business confidence.
  • US faces ‘disastrous’ $3.4tn pension funding hole. The US public pension system has developed a $3.4tn funding hole that will pile pressure on cities and states to cut spending or raise taxes to avoid Detroit-style bankruptcies. According to academic research shared exclusively with FTfm, the collective funding shortfall of US public pension funds is three times larger than official figures showed, and is getting bigger.
 Telegraph: Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 147.0 -1.25 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 59.50 -1.25 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.15 +.03%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.32%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.35%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (AA)/.03
  • (OZRK)/.57
Economic Releases 
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Kaplan speaking and the Japan bank lending report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, Fed rate-hike fears, global growth concerns, commodity weakness, yen strength and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, April 09, 2016

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Worst Week in Two Months Rattles Equity Bulls as Earnings Loom. It’s official -- the rally in U.S. stocks that erased the worst-ever start to a year has fizzled, with the biggest weekly slide since February depriving the bull market of momentum ahead of what’s forecast to be the steepest earnings slump since the financial crisis. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.2 percent in the five days to 2,047.60, the second slide in the three weeks since the gauge erased an 11 percent loss for the year. The period was tumultuous, with the average daily swing of 0.8 percent the most in a month, while three days of 1 percent moves ended a 15-day stretch of calm, the longest since March 2015. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index capped its biggest weekly advance since January.
  • China State Researcher Sees Downside Risks in Property Sales. There are downside risks for the China property market in the second quarter because of the tightening measures that have been reintroduced to some cities, a Chinese government researcher said. The curbs in first-tier cities are limiting property sales’ growth, Zhang Changcai, deputy director general at the Information Research Department of the State Council, said at a conference in Beijing Saturday.
  • Brazil Heads for Cliffhanger on Impeachment in Decisive Showdown. Brazil’s drawn-out political crisis is moving into a decisive phase next week with two key votes in Congress that could seal the fate of President Dilma Rousseff’s political future. A special committee in the lower house began a marathon session on Friday in order to decide by Monday whether to move forward with an impeachment request against Rousseff. The full Chamber of Deputies could vote as early as April 17, either killing impeachment or setting the stage for Rousseff’s ouster in the Senate.
  • ECB's Mersch Warns of Diminishing Returns in Central Bank Action. Central banks’ extraordinary measures to spur growth may eventually show diminishing returns while a key part of the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program carries a “certain risk” that has been mitigated, ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch said. Mersch, in a speech to the Ambrosetti Workshop in Cernobbio Italy, on Saturday, reviewed the various policy instruments that the ECB and other central banks have used to aid economic recovery. 
  • Spanish Bonds' Slide Shows Shortcomings of Expanded ECB Stimulus. (graph) The first full week of the European Central Bank’s expanded bond buying highlighted the program’s limitations in the face of heightened political risks in the euro area. The extra yield, or spread, that investors get for holding Spain’s 10-year bonds instead of similar-maturity German securities widened to the most in two months. That was even as the ECB increased the size of its monthly bond purchases to 80 billion euros ($91 billion) from 60 billion euros starting April 1 and officials signaled they were ready to further ease monetary policy to support a flagging economy and boost inflation.
  • The Yen's Puzzling Surge, Explained in One Morgan Stanley Theory.
  • SAP Sales Miss Estimates as Some Deals Slip to Next Quarter. SAP SE reported sales that missed analysts’ estimates as some deals in the Americas region were signed later than expected, though the software maker reiterated its forecast for the year. Revenue rose 5.1 percent to 4.73 billion euros ($5.4 billion) in the first quarter, compared with analysts’ average estimate of 4.82 billion euros, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Operating profit was 1.1 billion euros, Walldorf, Germany-based SAP said in a statement, compared with analysts’ estimate of 1.15 billion. The announcement of results Friday night in Germany came ahead of SAP’s full first-quarter report scheduled for April 20.
  • Three Oil Majors Have Debt Ratings Cut by Moody's on Price Rout. Three of the world’s largest energy companies had their credit ratings lowered by Moody’s Investors Service on the expectation that oil prices will stay low for longer and cause leverage concerns. Chevron Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc had their ratings reduced by one level, while Total SA’s was cut two steps, according to statements by the New York-based rating company on Friday. Chevron will generate negative cash flow amid rising debt for at least the next two years, while Shell will have elevated leverage following its acquisition of BG Group Plc, Moody’s said. Prices are expected to stay low through this year and next and continue to pressure Total’s operating cash flows and credit metrics, Moody’s said.
  • Paulson's Advantage Funds Each Tumbled 15% in First Quarter. (video) Billionaire John Paulson is joining some of the most recognizable hedge fund managers in posting big losses in the first quarter despite a rebound in global equities. Paulson & Co.’s Advantage and Advantage Plus funds, which wager on companies going through corporate events including spinoffs and bankruptcies, tumbled 15 percent in the first quarter, according to a person familiar with the matter. Both funds fell 7 percent last month, missing the 6.8 percent rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Cruz Collects Most Colorado Delegates. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas swept up a fresh cache of delegates in Colorado on Friday as his supporters won a majority of the state’s 37 slots at the Republican National Convention even before the state’s full GOP convention meets here Saturday. In a series of party meetings by congressional district over the last week, Mr. Cruz’s supporters shut out his rivals to win all 21 delegate slots–3 from each of the state’s 7 congressional districts. The last meeting was Friday, in advance of the state convention that will award another 13 delegates tomorrow; 3 remaining slots are filled by top state party officials.
  • Belgium Terror Suspect Is Said to Confess in Airport Attack. Mohamed Abrini confesses to being ‘man in hat’ at Brussels airport, prosecutors say; second person present at Maelbeek metro station identified. Terrorist suspect Mohamed Abrini confessed Saturday to being the third attacker at the Brussels national airport as Belgium’s probe into the suicide bombings last month took a leap forward.
  • Apple(AAPL) Stores See Shrinking Share of iPhone Sales. More buyers are buying directly from telecom carriers.
  • Bernie Sanders Wins Wyoming’s Democratic Caucuses. Delegates to be distributed proportionally; Hillary Clinton maintains lead. Sen. Bernie Sanders won the Wyoming caucuses on Saturday, adding to a string of recent victories and giving his underdog campaign a shot of momentum heading into the more important New York primary this month. The Associated Press projected that Mr. Sanders would beat front-runner Hillary Clinton with 96% of the precincts reporting.
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (DIS), (TOL), (OI), (STX) and (AAPL).
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
  • Financial turmoil at SunEdison(SUNE) imperils solar projects worldwide. In November, solar energy giant SunEdison Inc  reported that its project pipeline had grown by 75 percent in just a year, the result of an aggressive growth strategy. Now, five months later, many of those projects are imperiled as SunEdison reportedly prepares to declare bankruptcy.
The Telegraph: