Friday, August 19, 2016

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 2,182.114 -.08%
  • DJIA 18,557.50 -.13%
  • NASDAQ 5,237.32 +.05%
  • Russell 2000 1,235.82 +.48%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 32.35 +2.31%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 119.91 -.36
  • Wilshire 5000 22,565.40 -.01%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,053.54 -.39%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,044.02 +.22%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 561.75 -.32%
  • Solactive US Cyclical 140.91 +.86%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,181.03 +1.14%
  • Transports 7,930.77 +1.53%
  • Utilities 682.50 -1.40%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 71.57 -3.38%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 37.44 +.21%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,135.95 +.44%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 999.17 -.11%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 269,443 +.40%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 283 -276
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 29.03 +16.12%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 258,250 -3.35%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,829,979 +2.08%
  • Total Put/Call .83 +12.0%
  • OEX Put/Call .85 -65.95%
  • ISE Sentiment 84.0 -38.97%
  • NYSE Arms .95 -9.91%
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.65 +1.13%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.51 -.41%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.15 +4.21%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.98 -.99%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 19,664.99 +.33%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.710 Trillion -1.27%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$4.375 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 35.6 +13.7%
  • AAII % Bears 26.4 -1.5%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 188.60 +3.22%
  • Crude Oil 48.31 +8.03%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 150.20 +9.46%
  • Natural Gas 2.60 +.31%
  • Heating Oil 151.75 +7.19%
  • Gold 1,343.80 +.45%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 151.65 +.98%
  • Copper 217.15 +1.64%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 209.33 USD/Ton +1.62%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 60.95 USD/Ton +.96%
  • Lumber 322.30 -.99%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,154.52 +1.58%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.6% +10.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +8.4% unch.
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .3593 -5.02%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 126.96 +.21%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.6 -6.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.6 -1.0 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.80 -4.8 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 76.0% chance of no change, 24.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 9/21
  • US Dollar Index 94.60 -1.13%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,555.99 +.12%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 118.47 +.31%
  • Yield Curve 84.0 +3.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.59% +8.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.426 Trillion -.06%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 26.45 -16.69%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 356.0 -.05%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 24.75 +6.41%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 43.74 -.34%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 114.90 -1.15%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 70.0 -4.11%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 856.93 -.01%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 229.70 +.99%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.40 -.27%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.49% +4.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 51.75 -2.25 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -37.0 +3.0 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 70.68 -.93%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 679.0 -5.43%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 92.23 +4.55%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 241.07 -1.96%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 147.50 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.278 Trillion +2.21%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,012.30 -1.1%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 265,250 +2,500
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.6% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.43% -2.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 541.5 -3.99%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 43.6 +1.8 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +.4% -10.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.14/gallon +.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 682.0 +1.64%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 711.28 +1.20%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 +10.0%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 266,944 +1.27%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +.7%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -.5%
Leading Sectors
  • Computer Hardware +3.6%
  • Oil Service +3.4%
  • Road & Rail +3.1%
  • Semis +2.1%
  • Defense +1.6%
Lagging Sectors
  • Restaurants -1.7% 
  • REITs -2.1%
  • Hospitals -2.1%
  • Telecom -2.6%
  • Gold & Silver -3.3%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (20)
  • ACIA, SEMI, PTI, REN, SYRS, GK, URBN, NTAP, AVXS, TWLO, OSIS, RETA, AIMT, NXRT, GBT, PPS, DKS, PLANT, DY and PATK
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (11)
  • LOW, MAA, ALRM, VRSN, OMED, CREE, BGG, PTLA, HAIN, CXW and GEO
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Hike Worries, Rising European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Restaurant/Utility Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.69 +2.27%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 118.48 +.02%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.98 +1.32%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.36 +.09%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 84.0 -38.97%
  • Total Put/Call .83 +12.0%
  • NYSE Arms .91 -9.91% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.60 +.95%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 682.0 -2.96%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.86 +4.25%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 24.75 +1.85%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 43.27 +.46%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 240.98 +.36%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.40 -.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 51.75 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -36.75 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.65 -.31%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .30% +1.0 basis point 
  • Yield Curve 83.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $60.95/Metric Tonne +.40%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.6 -.7 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.6 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.8 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.50% +1.0 basis point
  • 30.5% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 2 meeting, 52.4% chance at Dec. 14 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -70 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +1 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/medical/tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value -.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Coal -4.7% 2) Gold & Silver -2.8% 3) Oil Service -1.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • FMS, ARA, DVA, ZEUS, EL, ADS, WSR, PSTG, REN, UBSI, MSG, TRIL, EMR, IEP, CPK, MPEL, SALE, YY, PNR, ACIA, ROK, PUK, FIZZ, T, DTE, SPWH and SALE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) XLY 2) DE 3) NUE 4) ASHR 5) MON
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) BWLD 2) X 3) NOG 4) IEP 5) AKS
Charts: