Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,134.72 -1.52%

• DJIA 18,107.80 -1.31%

• NASDAQ 5,133.62 -1.40%

• Russell 2000 1,225.09 -1.17%

• S&P 500 High Beta 32.29 +.53%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 115.63 -.74% 

• Wilshire 5000 22,078.50 -1.42%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,026.37 -1.83%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,030.25 -1.17%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 539.94 -2.75%

• Solactive US Cyclical 136.83 -2.96%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,165.88 -1.54%

• Transports 7,842.30 -.55%

• Utilities 658.06 -.62%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 79.53 -.05%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 37.38 +1.95%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,142.46 +1.18%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,001.35 +.53%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 271,585 +1.06%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 354 +265

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 20.0 +16.7%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 341,288 n/a

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,787,891 n/a

• Total Put/Call 1.16 +20.0%

• OEX Put/Call 1.86 +314.55%

• ISE Sentiment 73.0 -12.35%

• NYSE Arms .93 +10.61%

• Volatility(VIX) 16.39 +22.25%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.47 +11.82%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.91 -1.39%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.06 +2.97%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,550.71 +.14%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.695 Trillion -1.08%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.780 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 29.8 +4.0%

• AAII % Bears 28.5 -9.6%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 182.53 +2.43%

• Crude Oil 46.0 +5.42%

• Reformulated Gasoline 136.57 +6.65%

• Natural Gas 2.79 -.42%

• Heating Oil 143.16 +2.86%

• Gold 1,329.70 +1.20%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 148.54 -.30%

• Copper 208.95 +.41%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 209.33 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 57.78 USD/Ton -2.71%

• Lumber 309.40 -.29%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,142.67 +2.99%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.3% -20.0 basis points
• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +8.3% +20.0 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0820 -2.86%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 127.44 -.13%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.9 -5.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -18.7 -14.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.60 -6.7 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 68.0% chance of no change, 32.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 9/21

• US Dollar Index 95.37 -.54%
• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,555.21 +1.35%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.43 -.59%

• Yield Curve 89.0 +7.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.67% +7.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.419 Trillion +.04%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.52 -2.72%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 355.0 -.17%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 24.64 +.29%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 37.75 -1.96%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 104.07 -2.87%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 68.34 +.51%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 733.73 -.05%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 202.0 -4.52%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.63 +.18%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.51% +3.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 49.0 -3.0 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 +1.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.5 +10.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 74.02 +2.67%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 662.0 -3.98%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 87.78 +.02%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 238.31 -1.63%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 139.0 +1.5 basis points
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.330 Trillion -.73%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 982.70 +.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 261,250 -1,750

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.6% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.44% -2.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 549.90 +.86%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 44.0 +.6 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +.8% +40.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.18/gallon -.03/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 792.0 +10.0%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 702.65 +1.16%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 +11.1%

• Rail Freight Carloads 265.709 -1.59%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -.9%

Worst Performing Style

• Large -Cap Growth -1.7%

Leading Sectors

• Hospitals +3.5%

• Gaming +2.4%

• Airlines +2.4%

• Energy +1.8%

• HMOs +.5%

Lagging Sectors

• Construction -2.9% 

• Foods -3.2%

• Steel -3.6%

• Homebuilders -4.1%

• Semis -5.1%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (24)

• CLCD, CPHD, NAV, RTRX, PI, SE, SGMS, APA, CVGW, FRAN, TLRD, SRAQ, APIC, AGX, TIVO, CTMX, AIR, VRNT, TCMD, TRUP, CPE, FNSR, VLS and DO

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (21)

• IPHI OLLI, CTLT, SWHC, THRM, PLAY,  RMBS, SCTY, NX, CASY, SYNT, AIRM, JW/A, HDS, ADPT, SFM, PAY, WAT, TSCO, HOME and DVAX

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on Fed Rate-Hike Fears, Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Emerging Markets Currency Worries, Commodity/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.87 +26.86%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.23 -.24%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.06 +4.79%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.26 +15.92%

• ISE Sentiment Index 71.0 -23.66%
  

• Total Put/Call 1.05 +8.25%

• NYSE Arms .66 -16.49% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.99 +4.42%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 661.0 -2.7%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.70 +4.24%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 24.64 +.76%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 37.66 +4.58%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 238.31 +2.38%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.63 +.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 49.25 -1.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.50 -.5 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.57 -.97%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .34% unch.

• Yield Curve 89.0 +5.0 basis points
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $57.78/Metric Tonne -.62%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.9 -.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -18.7 -4.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.6 -1.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.51% -3.0 basis points
• 36.4% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 2 meeting, 60.3% chance at Dec. 14 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -170 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -73 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -63 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and added to my emerging market shorts

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -2.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -6.0% 2) Disk Drives -5.5% 3) Steel -5.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• NEP, EVH, TRU, TPB, LSI, CQP, GWPH, CPG, SUI, CRTO, CVLT, WATT, ENB, MOMO, BRG, XTLY, TSCO, PDI, HDS, TRNC, EDI, MON, SWKS, TIVO, CRH, CLVS, TMO, WHR, MPW, BZH, AVXS, ACIA, DO and BOOT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XHB 2) APA 3) MON 4) GE 5) XLP

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) KMX 2) MRO 3) SPWR 4) IR 5) WHR

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming unch. 2) HMOs -.1% 3) Banks -.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LXRX, CLCD, FNSR, LOCO, TGP, RH, ZUMZ and CVI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FNSR 2) NVAX 3) PG 4) MSTX 5) REC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) RH 2) FNSR 3) ZUMZ 4) HOV 5) MON

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +8.5% Above 100-Day Average
• 0 Sectors Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 8.5% of Issues Advancing, 90.4% Declining
• 17 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 65.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 23.8%
• Vix 14.6 +16.6%
• Total Put/Call 1.04 +7.2%
• TRIN/Arms .51 -35.25%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Wall Street Journal: 

• U.S. Gets Ready to Assist Offensive to Retake Key Iraq City From Islamic State. Additional troops arrive to bolster preparation for campaign to reclaim Mosul; defense officials anticipate battle will begin in October.
• Chinese Billionaire Linked to Giant Aluminum Stockpile in Mexican Desert. U.S. aluminum executives claim Liu Zhongtian, founder of Chinese metals conglomerate China Zhongwang, used a factory in Mexico to game the global trade system.

Fox News:

• Clinton email had 'multiple' classified markings, challenging her claim to FBI. (video) New details about the emails on Hillary Clinton's personal server that contained classified markings call into question her claim to the FBI that she didn't know what the markings meant -- and even believed they represented an alphabetical listing of paragraphs.

CNBC:

• Asia markets open mostly lower; ASX down 0.9 pct, Nikkei up 0.3 pct, Kospi down 0.8 pct. Asian markets opened mostly lower after a lower finish from U.S. equities and disappointment with the European Central Bank (ECB) decision to stand pat on policy. Traders will be watching for China's inflation data and South Korea's central bank rate decision later. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 opened down 0.9 percent, dragged by losses in its heavily-weighted financials subindex, which slid 1.15 percent, but losses were offset by its energy sector rising 0.64 percent.

Zero Hedge:

• Wells Fargo Fires 5,300 For Engaging In Massive Fraud, Creating Over 2 Million Fake Accounts.
• DB Warns That 35-Year Economic Super Cycle Is Officially Ending.
• Brace For "VaR Shock" - How The Bank Of Japan May Be About To Unleash A Global Selloff.
• Matt Lauer Slammed By Mainstream Press After Vet Tells Hillary "I Would Have Been Imprisoned" If I Did What You Did.
• Labor Department Revises Away 150,000 Jobs.
• Fed Wants To Bar Banks From Owning Physical Commodities, Equities.
• "It's Bordering Chaos": $14 Billion In Cargo Stranded At Sea, Crews "Go Crazy" On Hanjin Ghost Ships.
• Oilgasm Unable To Save Stocks As Draghi 'Dud' Sparks Bond Bloodbath. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Obama’s grand finale trip to Asia has turned into a disaster.
• US commercial bankruptcies are soaring.
• A massive oil discovery could supply every refiner on the Gulf Coast.

Telegraph:

• ECB's Mario Draghi has run out of magic as deflation closes in.
• US recession jitters stoke fears of impotent Fed and fiscal paralysis.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.5 -.75 basis point.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 36.0 +.5 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.26 -.02%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.01%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

• (HOV)/.08
• (KR)/.45
• (MFRM)/.65 

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• Final Wholesale Inventories MoM for July are estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in June.
• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for July are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +1.9% gain in June.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Rosengren speaking, Fed's Kaplan speaking and the Canadian Unemployment report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.