Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,153.74 -.67%

• DJIA 18,240.49 -.37%

• NASDAQ 5,292.40 -.37%

• Russell 2000 1,236.55 -1.20%

• S&P 500 High Beta 33.08 +.64%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 117.62 -1.94%

• Wilshire 5000 22,292.10 -.79%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,049.56 -.93%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,034.41 -.56%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 537.03 -1.74%

• Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.2356 +4.44%
  

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,203.46 -.09%

• Transports 8,056.86 -.27%

• Utilities 643.46 -3.69%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 77.24 +2.25%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 37.67 +.35%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,149.30 +.55%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,000.84 +.03%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 269,514 -.96%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 77 -47

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 25.0 -22.22%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 362,976 +24.46%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,871,665 +2.22%

• Total Put/Call 1.18 +20.41%

• OEX Put/Call 1.85 -19.91%

• ISE Sentiment 64.0 -32.63%

• NYSE Arms .94 +13.25%

• Volatility(VIX) 13.48 +1.43%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.86 -3.92%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.84 -1.40%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.20 -2.49%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,278.29 +.31%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.655 Trillion -.93%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$2.266 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 28.8 +20.0%

• AAII % Bears 27.9 -24.8%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 188.32 +1.07%

• Crude Oil 49.81 +3.66%

• Reformulated Gasoline 148.18 +1.74%

• Natural Gas 3.17 +9.15%

• Heating Oil 157.93 +3.21%

• Gold 1,251.90 -4.87%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 154.25 -.94%

• Copper 216.35 -2.25%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 192.67 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 55.86 USD/Ton unch.

• Lumber 343.10 +1.84%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,157.69 +.17%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.1% -30.0 basis points
• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +8.7% -10.0 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1152 +9.72%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 128.39 +.27%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.0 +3.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 13.2 +10.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.60 -.6 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 82.9% chance of no change, 17.1% chance of 25 basis point hike on 11/02

• US Dollar Index 96.63 +1.27%
• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,549.35 -.14%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.41 +1.22%

• Yield Curve 89.0 +6.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.72% +12.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.419 Trillion +.18%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 26.67 +.66%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 360.0 -.08%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 21.84 -12.04%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 32.88 +.35%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 90.63 -1.61%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 70.41 -3.89%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 745.2 -.01%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 222.25 +1.17%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.23 +.03%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64% +4.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 55.50 -3.0 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.0 -1.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -40.0 -15.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 73.96 -1.78%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 614.0 -4.02%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 99.20 -2.38%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 235.89 -.5%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 140.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.309 Trillion +.07%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 916.30 -3.2%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 253,500 -2,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.5% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.42% unch.

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 542.20 +2.86%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 41.40 -.2 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +.6% +20.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.26/gallon +.04/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 921.0 +5.25%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 741.81 +.78%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 +20.0%

• Rail Freight Carloads 272,014 +.34%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -.6%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value -1.4%

Leading Sectors

• Banks +2.8%

• I-Banks +1.7%

• Oil Service +1.6%

• Insurance +1.2%

• Gaming +1.1%

Lagging Sectors

• Telecom -3.0% 

• Utilities -3.7%

• Hospitals -4.0%

• REITs -5.2%

• Gold & Silver -13.5%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (9)

• ZUMZ, ICUI, WGO, TMH, CAB, BEAT, KBR, CTSH and NSTG

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (12)

• KNL, OPHT, MDCO, WMS, HRTG, AYI, UVE, RECN, AZZ, TASR, SYNT and ALNY

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Close on Fed Rate-Hike Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Oil Decline, Homebuilding/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Slightly Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.31 +3.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.40 -.58%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.18 -.29%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.09 +4.56%

• ISE Sentiment Index 69.0 -1.43%
  

• Total Put/Call 1.13 +13.13%

• NYSE Arms .77 -20.93% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.96 -1.67%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 615.0 -1.04%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.16 -.56%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.84 +.37%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 32.88 +.55%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 235.30 -.50%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.23 -.07%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.0 +.75 basis point

• TED Spread 53.75 +1.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -40.0 +4.74 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.70 -.10%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .32% unch. 

• Yield Curve 89.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.86/Metric Tonne unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.0 -3.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 13.2 +5.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.60 +.1 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64% -1.0 basis point
• 64.3% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 14 meeting, 67.2% chance at Feb. 1 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -46 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating n/a open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -4 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my retail/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.2% Below 100-Day Average
• 2 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 40.6% of Issues Advancing, 55.7% Declining
• 46 New 52-Week Highs, 13 New Lows
• 59.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.7%
• Vix 13.2 +3.0%
• Total Put/Call 1.24 +25.3%
• TRIN/Arms .93 -3.8%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.0 unch. 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 32.75 unch.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.68 -.12%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.17%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

• None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for September is estimated to rise to 172K versus 151K in August.
• The Unemployment Rate for September is estimated at 4.9% versus 4.9% in August.   
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for September is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in August. 

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Inventories MoM for August are estimated to fall -.1% versus a prior estimate of a -.1% decline.
• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for August are estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.4% decline in July.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for August is estimated to fall to $16.45B versus $17.713B in July. 

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Fischer speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, Fed's George speaking, Fed's Brainard speaking, China Services PMI report and the German Industrial Production report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +2.6% Above 100-Day Average
• 1 Sector Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 27.3% of Issues Advancing, 69.9% Declining
• 54 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
• 59.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.9%
• Vix 13.5 +3.9%
• Total Put/Call .92 +19.5%
• TRIN/Arms .80 +14.5%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Central Banks on QE Highway Worry About Running Out of Road. (video) Two of the world’s most accommodative central banks are starting to think about ways out of the bond-buying maze. Long after their U.S. counterpart ended asset purchases and started raising interest rates, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank continue to rely on massive quantitative easing in a battle to revive consumer-price growth. But what worked once won’t necessarily work forever. The glow of QE is fading amid negative side effects including financial-stability concerns and reduced earnings for commercial lenders, and especially the simple difficulty of finding sufficient suitable assets to acquire.
• In Housing-Dependent Canada, New Cooling Measures Send Shivers. For almost a decade Canada’s housing market has withstood just about anything that government officials have thrown at it in an attempt to restrain breakneck growth. Measures introduced by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s federal government on Monday may finally bring it to heel, analysts and economists say. The fallout from the surprise announcement continued to build on Wednesday as shares of housing stocks tumbled anew, analysts forecast a hit to bank earnings and to an economy that has generated most of its meager growth from housing in recent years.
• Asian Stocks Rise as Weak Yen Bolsters Topix, Energy Shares Gain. Asian stocks rose as Japanese shares advanced after the yen traded near a one-month low and energy producers gained with crude oil. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.4 percent to 140.91 as of 9:07 a.m. in Tokyo and Japan’s Topix index was up 0.7 percent. The yen dropped 0.1 percent to 103.56 against the dollar, the eighth day of decline, as bets increased that the Federal Reserve will tighten policy this year amid signs the world’s biggest economy is gaining momentum.
• Aramco Cuts Pricing for Oil Sales to Asia as Glut Persists. (video) Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, cut pricing for November oil sales to Asia and Northwest Europe and for most grades to other regions amid a global supply glut. State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known as Saudi Aramco, lowered its official pricing for Arab Light crude to Asia by 25 cents a barrel to 45 cents less than the regional benchmark, it said Wednesday in an e-mailed statement. The company had been expected to widen the discount for shipments of Arab Light by 30 cents a barrel, to 50 cents less than the benchmark for buyers in Asia, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of six refiners and traders. 
• Saudis Risk More Pain From OPEC Reversal as Oil Rivals Ramp Up. For OPEC’s production deal to work, it was always clear that Saudi Arabia would need to make sacrifices. The world’s largest oil exporter faces the risk the costs will keep getting bigger. To bring daily output to the top end of the 32.5 million to 33 million-barrel range agreed to by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the Saudis would only need to make the typical end-of-summer reductions as local demand tapers off, according to Citigroup Inc. If Nigeria and Libya restore production, the kingdom may need to cut twice as much, Petromatrix GmbH estimates. U.S. shale drillers also stand ready to fill any supply gap.
• Twitter(TWTR) Shares Slump After Report Says Google Won’t Make a Bid. Twitter Inc. fell as much as 11 percent in extended trading following a report that Alphabet Inc.’s Google isn’t interested in buying the social-networking service. Technology news website Recode reported Wednesday that Google doesn’t currently plan to make a bid for Twitter, citing unidentified people familiar with the situation. A representative for Google declined to comment on the report. Apple is also unlikely to be a suitor, Recode said, without naming its sources.
• Wal-Mart(WMT) Boosts Stake in JD.com Moving Further Into China. (video) Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is pushing more aggressively onto Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s turf. The Bentonville, Arkansas-based retailer boosted its stake in China’s second-largest e-commerce website JD.com Inc., strengthening an alliance to win more market share in the world’s largest online market. Wal-Mart lifted its holding to 10.8 percent from 5.9 percent, according to an amended 13-G filing on Thursday. JD rose 7.5 percent in extended trading in the U.S.

Wall Street Journal:

• Donald Trump Often Made Donations to State Attorneys General Reviewing His Business. Throughout his career, the GOP nominee and others close to him donated to state officials, in particular from New York.
• Dividend Stocks Take a Hit. Utility shares post longest losing streak since 2002 as investors shed holdings; sectors look pricey after this year’s sharp runup.

Fox News:

• Republicans blast FBI for 'astonishing' agreement to destroy Clinton aides' laptops. (video)

CNBC:

• KLA-Tencor(KLAC) and Lam Research(LRCX) to terminate merger. 
• Something rare and bad is happening to the market's earnings. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• The IMF Sounds An Alarm As Global Debt Hits A Record $152 Trillion Or 225% Of World GDP. (graph)
• 5 Stories The Mainstream Media Ignored While Reporting On Kim Kardashian's Robbery.
• Two Thirds Of Young American Adults Live With Their Parents.
• Something Strange Is Going On In Switzerland: "Is Someone Trying To Buy The Swiss National Bank". (graph)
• NY AG Admits Clinton Foundation Failed To Provide 3 Years Of Tax Forms On "Donors And Contributors".
• "It Cannot Be Allowed To Fail": Germany Pursuing "Discrete Talks" With The US Over Deutsche Bank.
• Absurd Thinking.
• Six-Sigma Services-Sector Survey Surge Sparks Buying Panic In Stocks.

Business Insider:

• CONFIRMED: The maker of EpiPen overcharged the government, and lawmakers are furious.
• The US economy shows 'evidence for an imminent recession'.
• Goldman Sachs(GS) is reportedly pulling money from Leon Cooperman's hedge fund.
• Florida could get pummeled twice by the same storm.
• Chinese policymakers face a difficult balancing act.
• The subprime auto market is turning toxic.

Telegraph: 

• Global debt hits all-time high of $152 trillion as IMF warns of world-wide economic stagnation.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.0 -1.0 basis point. 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 32.75 -.25 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.85 -.02%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.05%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.02%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

• (ISCA)/-.01
• (CMTL)/-.18
• (HELE)/1.14 

Economic Releases
7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for September. 

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 256K versus 254K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2081K versus 2062K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Factory Orders report, Bloomberg weekly Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (LB)  Sept. sales report call, (WMT) annual meeting and the (ATU) investor conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by energy and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.