Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,297.42 +.07%

• DJIA 20,071.46 -.11%

• NASDAQ 5,666.76 +.11%

• Russell 2000 1,377.83 +.47%

• S&P 500 High Beta 37.85 -.16%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 120.33 -.72%

• Wilshire 5000 23,909.98 +.20%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,097.05 +.09%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,115.87 +.19%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 543.55 +1.16%

• Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.2980 -1.01%
  

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,304.13 -.19%

• Transports 9,241.56 -2.15%

• Utilities 662.07 +.67%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 95.59 -.68%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 37.57 +.78%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,168.11 -.25%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 999.99 +.43%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 278,584 -.25%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 284 -472

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 21.21 -44.53%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 482,523 +3.84%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,151,809 -1.25%

• Total Put/Call 1.02 +3.03%

• OEX Put/Call .28 -87.5%

• ISE Sentiment 92.0 +14.46%

• NYSE Arms 1.21 +30.39%

• Volatility(VIX) 10.92 +3.59%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.92 +5.08%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.03 -1.67%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.32 -3.34%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,322.48 -.27%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.680 Trillion -.21%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.987 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 32.8 +3.9%

• AAII % Bears 34.2 +2.0%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 193.20 -.12%

• Crude Oil 53.79 +1.09%

• Reformulated Gasoline 155.35 +.12%

• Natural Gas 3.06 -8.62%

• Heating Oil 166.45 +2.79%

• Gold 1,216.80 +2.18%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 176.39 -.09%

• Copper 261.80 -2.89%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 279.33 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 82.19 USD/Ton -1.38%

• Lumber 351.0 +6.72%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,187.53 +.12%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.4% +50.0 basis points
• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +11.8% -10.0 basis points
  

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1499 -5.25%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 132.37 +.16%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.30 +9.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 55.90 +4.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.0 -1.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 76.0% chance of no change 24.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 3/15

• US Dollar Index 99.90 -.92%
• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,547.42 +.73%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.07 -1.43%

• Yield Curve 129.0 +2.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.49% +1.0 basis point

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.415 Trillion +.03%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 27.24 -5.97%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 404.0 -.06%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 23.04 +5.40%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 31.14 -3.48%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 72.61 -4.77%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 68.18 -2.61%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 652.33 -7.26%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 180.75 +1.65%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 133.68 +.20%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.04% -3.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 53.5 -.25 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 30.75 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.75 +8.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 64.43 +.34%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 369.0 -7.02%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 87.23 +.66%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 225.82 -4.6%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 135.0 +1.5 basis points
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.413 Trillion +.07%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 965.30 +.20%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 248,000 +2,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.5% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.19% unch.

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 384.70 -3.2%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 46.6 +1.4 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +.4% -10.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.28/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 770.0 -6.89%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 877.89 +.20%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 -11.1%

• Rail Freight Carloads 269,988 +.82%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +.5%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value unch.

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +4.0%

• Biotech +2.6%

• HMOs +2.5%

• Drugs +1.9%

• Medical Equipment +1.9%

Lagging Sectors

• Telecom -1.8% 

• Internet -1.8%

• Airlines -2.0%

• Gaming -3.2%

• Steel -5.0%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (16)

• MNTA, BRKS, MJN, CARA, CDNS, LRN, SANM, AVY, UTEK, BOOT, TYPE, XXIA, TGI, PGEN, QCP and SATS

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (26)

• R, SNA, RMBS, FHB, PAYC, CRUS, MIC, MCRN, SM, POWI, UPS, SBH, CASH, TMHC, SPKE, RL, RYAM, KEYW, SFLY, PBI, CSGS, OPB, EEQ, UA and TPX

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Economic Optimism, Deregulation Hopes, Technical Buying, Financial/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Slightly Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 10.93 -8.38%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.82 +.08%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.42 +.29%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.93 +6.1%

• ISE Sentiment Index 93.0 +24.1%
  

• Total Put/Call .97 -8.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.26 +17.65%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.40 -1.97%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 372.0 -5.29%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.80 -2.33%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 23.04 +.61%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 31.14 -3.31%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 224.23 -2.58%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 133.68 +.14%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 30.75 +.75 basis point

• TED Spread 53.75 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.75 +.5 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.42 +.36%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .50% unch.

• Yield Curve 127.0 unch.
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $82.19/Metric Tonne +1.38-

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.30 +6.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 55.90 -1.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.0 -5.7 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.05 unch.
• 44.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 3 meeting, 68.8% chance at June 14 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +207 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +94 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my in my biotech/tech/retail/medical sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -2.5% 2) Internet -.7% 3) Airlines -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DECK, FEYE, HBI, SKYW, ACET, GIMO, ELY, SRCL, ATHN, AMZN, WWW, GIL, PKI, BAK, SRCL and LCI

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FDC 2) ZNGA 3) DECK 4) MDCO 5) NWL

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PRXL 2) NGVC 3) PKI 4) CLVS 5) GPRO

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +2.6% 2) I-Banks +2.1% 3) Construction +1.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ESPR, MDCO, DATA, M, CBM, FTNT, CY, PCTY, V, CSC, PFSI, MSCI, SNA, OKS, HUBG, NFG, VECO, BRS, KBWB, AXON, AMGN, CSGS, MTZ, CSC, ENVA, KEX, NYT, CLX, CARA, THG, SIGI, GS, AOS, PAYC, RICE, MTOR, PBI, MIC, KEYS and TSS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ETFC 2) SGMS 3) V 4) HBI 5) AMGN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FTNT 2) DATA 3) V 4) KEX 5) ESV

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +6.8% Above 100-Day Average
• 1 Sector Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 78.9% of Issues Advancing, 18.4% Declining
• 118 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 58.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 38.9%
• Vix 11.1 -6.9%
• Total Put/Call 1.04 +3.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.32 +33.4%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.0 -1.25 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 32.25 unch.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.14 -.03%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.19%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (AN)/.95
• (CLX)/1.22
• (HSY)/1.08
• (HMC)/60.41
• (LYB)/2.20
• (PSX)/.46
• (TUES)/.38
• (WY)/.16 

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for January is estimated to rise to 175K versus 156K in December.
• The Unemployment Rate for January is estimated at 4.7% versus 4.7% in December.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for January is estimated to rise +.3% versus +.4% gain in December. 
  

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite for January is estimated to fall to 57.0 versus 57.2 in December.
• Factory Orders for December are estimated to rise +.7% versus a -2.4% decline in November. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Evans speaking, Eurozone Services PMI report and President Trump's meeting with business execs(BX)/(JPM)/(DIS)/(IBM) could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.