Friday, March 03, 2017

Weekly Scorebard*


Indices
  • S&P 500 2,382.93 +.49%
  • DJIA 20,994.26 +.73%
  • NASDAQ 5,864.63 +.17%
  • Russell 2000 1,393.29 -.32%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 38.10 +.93%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 122.12 +1.07%
  • Wilshire 5000 24,694.10 +.33%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,140.4 +.35%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,153.75 +.50%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 565.31 -.60%
  • Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.296 -.29%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,348.18 -.78%
  • Transports 9,477.35 +.43%
  • Utilities 698.04 -.46%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 95.52 +4.06%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 38.11 -1.44%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,187.75 +.81%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,000.10 +.56%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 283,091 -.21%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 304 -360
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 23.08 -45.19%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 556,607 +9.47%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,103,278 -3.69%
  • Total Put/Call .93 unch.
  • OEX Put/Call 1.89 +23.71%
  • ISE Sentiment 89.0 -19.75%
  • NYSE Arms .69 -58.82%
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.12 -1.92%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.49 -3.19%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.72 +.21%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.58 -2.04%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 19,832.55 -.02%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.678 Trillion -.07%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow $.807 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 37.9 -1.4%
  • AAII % Bears 35.6 +10.2%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 189.72 -.94%
  • Crude Oil 53.26 -1.61%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 165.09 -4.94%
  • Natural Gas 2.82 +4.12%
  • Heating Oil 159.35 -3.22%
  • Gold 1,235.20 -2.59%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 180.11 +.76%
  • Copper 270.35 +.62%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 250.0 USD/Ton unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 91.32 USD/Ton +.91%
  • Lumber 371.40 +.44%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,181.15 +.52%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.8% -60.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +10.2% -30.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0393 +40.36%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 132.98 +.09%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.80 -8.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 70.0 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 53.30 +7.0 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 6.0% chance of no change 94.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 3/15
  • US Dollar Index 107.79 +.77%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,559.89 -.37%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.26 +2.08%
  • Yield Curve 119.0 +1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.50% +18.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.420 Trillion -.23%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.41 -.18%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 390.0 -.06%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 21.18 -7.23%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 26.52 +4.8%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 65.84 -.51%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 64.30 -.94%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 525.32 -12.64%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 164.48 -3.60%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 135.35 +.33%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.04% +2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 44.0 -11.0 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 34.0 -2.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 +5.0 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 60.11 -3.41%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 352.0 -1.38%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 85.90 -9.07%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 209.57 -5.61%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 142.50 +2.5 basis points
  • M1 Money Supply $3.398 Trillion +1.0%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 971.3 +.4%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 234,250 -6,750
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.5% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.10% -6.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 392.90 +5.76%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 49.80 +1.8 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +1.0% +10.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.32/gallon +.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 904.0 +3.31%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 794.99 -2.51%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 -7.69%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 264,695 -1.05%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value +.5%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -.8%
Leading Sectors
  • Biotechy +3.8%
  • Homebuilders +2.9%
  • Construction +2.5%
  • HMOs +2.1%
  • Gaming +2.0%
Lagging Sectors
  • Alt Energy -2.1% 
  • Retail -2.2%
  • Telecom -2.3%
  • Coal -2.5%
  • Gold & Silver -9.3%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (65)
  • LJPC, WTW, KITE, KPTI, NTRI, AAOI, OLED, DY, BLDR, IBP, BID, IONS, SBY, GCP, LXU, OMED, AWI, ITCI, GOGO, FIX, TTD, HSII, USCR, ANF, BLD, TPC, AJRD, VRTU, ACIW, PCRX, NKTR, BWXT, FNGN, SPKE, ALB, AIRM, SCL, BURL, AMWD, SP, INCY, SPXC, JBT, SRPT, SSP, TCMD, MNST, WK, CBPX, EBIX, WNEB, WLH, AKRX, DERM, GKOS, WAGE, TRCO, NUS, INGN, BMCH, RP, MEI, TVTY, HEI/A and AMED
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (47)
  • BNFT, PBYI, ARII, ABCB, HZNP, ECPG, EXXI, EVHC, SEMG, HPE, KBR, DGI, NNI, GEF, THC, SIG, DRQ, CSU, BGS, TASR, ITRI, MGRC, PMC, TGT, ANIP, XOXO, XPER, MGLN, APEI, ETSY, PRAA, DFIN, SSTK, AFSI, USM, MEDP, AHP, TDS, PTCT, INCR, LBY, OME, ZOES, PANW, FRGI, ESND and BW
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Economic Optimism, Less Fed Uncertainty, Oil Gains, Metals&Mining/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.32 -4.15%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.35 +.65%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.76 +1.04%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.47 -2.63%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 76.0 -11.63%
  • Total Put/Call .94 -7.84%
  • NYSE Arms .59 -23.75%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.12 -.69%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 352.0 +.88%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 85.83 -.80%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.17 -5.02%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.51 +.80%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 208.79 -1.98%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 135.35 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 34.0 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 43.50 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 +3.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.17 +.45%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .70% +4.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 119.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $91.32/Metric Tonne -1.13%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.80 +1.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 70.0 +1.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 53.30 +1.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.04 +1.0 basis point
  • 96.4% chance of Fed rate hike at May 3 meeting, 98.1% chance at June 14 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +65 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +34 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my in my retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Retail -1.3% 2) REITs -1.0% 3) Gold & Silver -.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • NTNX, HMSY, AMD, AI, FOSL, ACIW, ANF, SHAK, CVA, REN and KPTI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) EXEL 2) EPI 3) ADSK 4) MYL 5) XLU
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) IMMR 2) NTNX 3) FOSL 4) KR 5) TRK
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value unch.
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Hospitals +2.9% 2) Airlines +1.8% 3) Steel +.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • VTTI, HABT, BIG, CTMX, TLK, BGNE, GWRE, AAOI, BITA, LGND, DGLD, TEDU, LXRX, TPX, GEF, XBIT, YRD, JOE, ESPR, BURL, AKRX, MU, GCP, DERM, IONS, THC, SRPT, SUPN, CARA and BIG
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) AEO 2) EEM 3) SMH 4) COST 5) KSU
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MU 2) MRVL 3) SWN 4) BURL 5) NOV
Charts: