Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.25 +2.25 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 27.50 +.5 basis point
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.72 -.02%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.05%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (SPLS)/.25
• (SIG)/4.01
• (SHLD)/-2.85
• (IGT)/.52
• (PRTY)/.74
• (SSYS)/.05 
• (ULTA)/2.13
• (PAY)/.20
• (ZUMZ)/.67

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for February. 

8:30 am EST

• Import Price Index MoM for February is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.4% gain in January. 
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 238K versus 223K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2062K versus 2066K prior.  

12:00 pm EST 

• The Household Change in Net Worth for 4Q.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The ECB rate decision, WASDE crop report, $12B 30Y T-Bond auction, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the Susquehanna Semi/Storage/Tech Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by energy and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Hike Worries, Oil Decline, Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Commodity/REIT Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 11.70 +2.18%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.0 +.18%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.39 +1.19%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.47 -5.56%

• ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 unch.
  

• Total Put/Call .95 +14.47%

• NYSE Arms .75 -48.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.04 +2.38%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 360.0 +1.37%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.87 +1.43%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 17.87 -5.82%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 27.49 +2.14%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 214.09 +2.79%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 135.68 +.07%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 31.25 -.75 basis point

• TED Spread 37.0 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.0 +.5 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.74 -.68%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .73% -1.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 120.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $87.19/Metric Tonne -2.91%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.80 +7.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 58.90 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 48.0 -7.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.0 -3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 3 meeting, 100.0% chance at June 14 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +86 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -28 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my in my retail/biotech/medical/tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts 

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Draghi Caution on Inflation Signals Stimulus Stays for Now. (video) Mario Draghi has left little doubt that he’s not ready to accept euro-area inflation has truly returned, and a closer look at data from the 19-nation region helps explain his hesitation. The European Central Bank president will probably reiterate his assessment on Thursday that underlying price growth remains subdued even after inflation accelerated to 2 percent -- nominally above the institution’s goal. A hefty upgrade of near-term projections as flagged by Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann is unlikely to change that message. Currency options show little expectation among traders of any immediate action by the Governing Council.
  
• Le Pen Says Her New Franc Would Fluctuate on Currency Markets. (video) Presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has repeatedly said the euro is bad for France but she hasn’t always been consistent about what she’d do about it. On Wednesday, she said she’d introduce a new franc at a rate of one-to-one to the euro and then allow it to fluctuate, even though she and her aides previously said any new national currency would continue to be pegged to a basket of currencies. Speaking on RTL radio, Le Pen said the new franc would likely fall against whatever currency Germany uses, making French car exports more competitive, but said it might rise against the currency in Italy, a country she said would also be better off without the euro.
• China's Imports Surge in February, While Exports Miss Estimates. (video) Imports soared 38.1 percent in U.S. dollar terms, almost double economist projections. Exports dropped 1.3 percent versus estimated 14 percent increase in Bloomberg survey. Trade deficit was $9.15 billion, the first negative reading in three years. That compared with projections for a $27 billion surplus.
• Wealth Divide Spurs Rise of Trump-Style Populism in Australia.
• Europe Stocks Close Little Changed as Bank Gains Offset Oil Drop. (video) European stocks closed little changed, halting a four-day losing streak, as gains in lenders were tempered by losses in energy and mining shares. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.2 percent at the close. Banks advanced, boosted by rising bond yields across the euro area and stronger-than-forecast U.S. private jobs data. Deutsche Bank AG climbed, snapping a four-day drop. Oil fell to a one-month low after government data showed U.S. crude stockpiles climbed to a record last week, weighing on energy-related stocks.
• Saudi Arabia, Russia Offer United Front on Oil Supply Cuts. Saudi Arabia and Russia, the architects of an oil production cut that has stabilized prices, presented a united front on compliance just as rising U.S. inventories have sparked doubts about the OPEC and non-OPEC deal. Khalid Al-Falih, the Saudi energy minister, acknowledged that global crude inventories aren’t draining as quickly as he expected, opening the door for an extension of the production cuts into the second half of the year. The potential rollover is a subtle yet significant shift from just six weeks ago, when the minister said that an extension probably wouldn’t be needed. 
• The Shipping News From China Is Good for Iron Miners, Mills. Record cargoes of iron ore coming into China and fewer boatloads of steel going out signal a boon for miners including BHP Billiton Ltd., Rio Tinto Group and Vale SA, as well as welcome news for rival metal producers like Europe’s ArcelorMittal. Purchases of ore rose 13 percent to 83.5 million metric tons in February, an all-time high for that month, with year-to-date shipments up 13 percent to 175 million tons, according to customs data Wednesday. Exports of steel products sank to 5.75 million tons in February, the lowest since the same month in 2014.
• Steel Delivers Big Payoff Long Before Trump Spends $1 Trillion. Long before President Donald Trump has made good on his pledge to spend $1 trillion on U.S. infrastructure projects, investors already are seeing a big payoffs from domestic steel producers. The VanEck Vectors Steel ETF delivered an 82 percent return in the year through Monday as shares surged in the industry it tracks, posting the third-best performance among non-leveraged exchange-traded funds in the U.S. A Bloomberg gauge of iron ore and steel producers --- which just a year ago was at its lowest since at least 2003 -- climbed more than 40 percent. Investors poured about $476 million into industrial-metals ETFs, and billionaire Stan Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Family Office boosted by 80 percent its stake in Nucor Corp., the largest U.S. steelmaker.
• Border-Tax Proposal Would Make Most Automakers Unprofitable, Study Says. (video) U.S. Republicans’ proposal to tax imports would make most automakers unprofitable, strain consumers and lead to job losses instead of gains, according to a study by consultant Roland Berger GmbH. The planned charge would increase the average cost of a car by $3,300, prompting a drop in demand and forcing manufacturers to react by shrinking their U.S. workforce, the Munich-based firm said Wednesday in a presentation. Because parts are sourced around the globe, all automotive companies would be affected. “Even American manufacturers would lose so much profit in their most important market that they would slide into losses globally,” Roland Berger partner Wolfgang Bernhart said in a statement. “The result will be lower vehicle sales, reduced income and fewer jobs in the local automotive industry.”
• USDA Says Tennessee Bird-Flu Strain Distinct From China Variety. A case of bird flu at a Tennessee farm has been identified as highly-pathogenic H7N9 avian influenza, while distinct from an infectious variety in China. The type is “a different virus and is genetically distinct” from China’s H7N9 bird-flu strain that has sickened poultry and infected humans in Asia, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a statement Tuesday. The variety found in the U.S. is from North American wild bird lineage, the agency said. Humans face a “very low” threat of infection during bird-flu outbreaks in poultry flocks, according to a release earlier this week from Tennessee’s agriculture department.
• These Are the 25 Best-Paying Jobs in America. Time for medical school.
• Microsoft(MSFT) Pledges to Use ARM Server Chips, Threatening Intel's Dominance. The software maker seeks to cut costs in its Azure cloud business by developing new hardware.
• A Freakish Calm Surrounds the Eight-Year Bull Market. (video) Eight years along and no existential crisis plagues this advance, whose unbroken march from the depths of the Great Recession is the second longest ever. Valuations are stretched and going by its age the rally is in rarefied air. But volatility, the ticker tape of investor anxiety, is nowhere to be found.
• Starbucks(SBUX) Loses Market Share as Competitors Roll Out Drink Deals.

Wall Street Journal:

• Republicans Disagree on How—and Whether—to Pay for Tax Cuts. House, Senate leaders favor revenue-neutral tax overhaul, which could be easier to pass but forces tough trade-offs.
• New Force on Wall Street: The ‘Family Office’. Clans with nine-figure fortunes are increasingly investing through unregulated firms known as family offices, impinging on the business of investment banking and private equity.
• A Plan B for the GOP: Raise Warren Buffett’s Taxes. A backup option for tax overhaul is to cut the rate on corporations, and raise it on shareholders.
• Tensions Grow as Solar Projects Supplant Farmland. States struggle over where large renewable-energy projects should be built.
• A Radical About-Face for Battle-Scarred Barclays: Take More Risk. New corporate-and-investment-banking chief Tim Throsby is looking to reinvigorate unit.

Fox News:

• WikiLeaks’ reveal of CIA hacking trove has feds on mole hunt. (video)
• 'Day Without a Woman' supporters got $246M from Soros.

CNBC:

• Brazil tumbles deeper into its worst ever depression. (video)
• David Tepper on Trump's deregulation unleashing 'animal spirits,' shorting bonds, favorite stock ideas.
• I don't think the market's cheap, but it's hard to go short with economic backdrop, says Appaloosa's David Tepper. (video)
• Economy can grow in 3% range with no surprises from Trump or Congress, Tepper says. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• FBI's Comey: "You’re Stuck With Me For Another Six And A Half Years".
• Obama "Furious" With Trump Over Wiretapping Allegations.
• Manhattan Retail Vacancies Soar.
• Senators Ask DOJ, FBI For Information On Trump Wiretapping.
• Whose Banks Are Riskiest: A Surprising Answer From The BIS.
• Oil Tanks To $51 Handle - One-Month Lows. (graph)
• Q1 GDP Now Just 1.2% According To Atlanta Fed; Rate Hike Imminent. (graph)
• Ivanka Trump's Fashion Line Reports Record Sales After Retailer Boycotts.
• WTI/RBOB Surge After Massive Gasoline Draw (Despite Record Crude Glut). (graph)
• Q1 GDP At Risk As Wholesale Inventories Tumble Most In A Year. (graph)
• Caterpillar(CAT) Accused Of Tax, Accounting Fraud In Report; Stock Slides.
• March Rate Hike Odds Reach 100%. (graph)
• US Productivity Growth Slowed Dramatically In Q4. (graph)
• Trump Effect: ADP Employment Surges Near Most In 6 Years On Record Goods-Producing Job Gains. (graph)

Business Insider:

• The public spat unfolding between the White House and the FBI is 'truly unprecedented'.
• Samsung is spending $300 million to bring manufacturing jobs to the US.
• Conservatives are bashing the GOP's healthcare bill and calling it 'Obamacare lite' — here are their 3 biggest gripes.

China Securities Journal:

• China CBRC Urges Trust Firms to Support Economy. Chinese trust firms should shift their business focus back to supporting growth of the real economy, citing Deng Zhiyi, director of China Banking Regulatory Commission's trust regulation department. CBRC would like to see trust companies curb or cut down on pure "fund channeling businesses," which normally involves off-balance-sheet wealth-management products, Deng said.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -1.9% 2) Energy -1.6% 3) Steel -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AFI, FOXF, TISI, GEO, URBN, HIIQ, CIEN, BOJA, BAS, NSM, HCLP, TELL, BPT, CRC, REN and EROS

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KATE 2) URBN 3) CRC 4) SPG 5) FITB

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PN 2) NSM 3) URBN 4) CAT 5) PBR

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Biotech +1.7% 2) Hospitals +1.3% 3) Social Media +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TSL, GBT, PLCE, MCFT, JBT, BLCM, MOMO, RPXC, HRB, STL, AVAV, AF, MGPI, CYTK, AERI, PCRX, AERI, ACMP, YY, DKS, TRIP, PBYI, LTRPA, SCMP, ESPR, LXRX, SUPN, CARB, CNCE, PRTK, NTLA and CAVM

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GBT 2) SWFT 3) HIG 4) URBN 5) HYG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) EXTR 2) NTLA 3) MIK 4) VC 5) NAV

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -.8% Below 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 38.9% of Issues Advancing, 57.2% Declining
• 36 New 52-Week Highs, 52 New Lows
• 55.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.6%
• Vix 11.3 -1.6%
• Total Put/Call .96 +15.7%
• TRIN/Arms .69 -52.5%