Friday, October 13, 2017

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Road & Rail -.9% 2) Utilities -.5% 3) Defense -.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • NEWT, PCG, TWNK, FRC, CNC, SSYS, AAOI, MOH, SSRM, DDD, GCP, FRC, SGH, ABEO, GLYC and VYGR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) SRPT 2) DISH 3) MTZ 4) HUN 5) CNC
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ATRS 2) PCG 3) TWNK 4) THC 5) MINI
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value +.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Steel +4.0% 2) Computer Hardware +1.7% 3) Oil Service +1.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SOHU, FARO, CEVA, SPAR, EQGP, MON, HMNY, XRF, BOX, HPQ, ULTA, MT, HUN, NFLX, ACLS, UNVR, JLL, LCI, X, TSE, RE, UN, LN, NEP, RDUS, ADS, IONS, VIAB and HUN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) VIAB 2) OCN 3) BOX 4) CMCSA 5) THC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) HPQ 2) ORIG 3) MOS 4) ETH 5) NVDA
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Friday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.50 -.5 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 16.0 -.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.67 +.01%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (BAC)/.45
  • (DFRG)/-.01
  • (JBHT)/.97
  • (PNC)/2.13
  • (WFC)/1.03
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • The CPI MoM for September is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.4% gain in August. 
  • The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for September is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in August.
  • Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Sept.
  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for September are estimated to rise +1.7% versus a -.2% decline in August.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for September is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +.2% gain in August.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas  for September is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.1% decline in August.
10:00 am EST
  • Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for October is estimated to fall to 95.0 versus 95.1 in September.
  • Business Inventories for August are estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.2% gain in July.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Rosengren speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, Fed's Kaplan speaking, Fed's Powell speaking, China Trade Balance report and the (SAFM) investor event could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Earnings Concerns, Oil Decline, Profit-Taking, Retail/Oil Service Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 9.96 +1.12%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.48 -.47%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.16 -.73%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 17.0 +1.74%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 76.0 -2.56%
  • Total Put/Call 1.02 +14.61%
  • NYSE Arms 1.84 +40.69%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.40 +1.39%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 401.0 -.01%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.20 +.39%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 4.88 -.81%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 16.26 -.98%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 177.18 -1.43%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 142.24 -.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 -2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 28.75 +1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -41.50 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.72 +.08%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.07% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 81.0 -1.5 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $60.09/Metric Tonne +.74%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.20 +.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 55.80 +2.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.40 +4.5 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.89 unch.
  • 78.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 13 meeting, 79.9% chance at Jan. 31 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +76 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +38 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -4 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index: