Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 Index 2,736.33 +1.81%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 25,234.80 +1.61%

• NASDAQ 7,121.07 +2.5%

• Russell 2000 1,556.21 +.47%

• S&P 500 High Beta 43.64 +2.04%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 145.25 +1.36%

• Wilshire 5000 28,293 +1.70%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,393.63 +2.48%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,240.35 +.96%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 586.66 -.22%

• Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.4647 -.03%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,780.44 +4.33%

• Transports 10,901.20 +1.95%

• Utilities 700.90 -3.31%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 101.70 +1.8%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 47.09 +2.3%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,280.73 +.78%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,004.94 +.05%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 315,065 +.41%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,471 +991

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 50.0 -10.01%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 632,161 +5.0%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,460,193 +.17%

• Total Put/Call .95 -15.6%

• OEX Put/Call .71 +105.0%

• ISE Sentiment 104.0 +43.59%

• NYSE Arms 1.02 +46.05%

• Volatility(VIX) 9.28 -7.86%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.02 -20.6%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.81 -5.55% 

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.64 -2.17%

• Smart Money Flow Index 20,078.33 -.35%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.838 Trillion -.27%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.119 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 59.8 +13.5%

• AAII % Bears 15.6 -24.6%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 193.45 +.17%

• Crude Oil 61.49 +2.59%

• Reformulated Gasoline 178.65 -.02%

• Natural Gas 2.80 -4.61%

• Heating Oil 205.91 +.54%

• Gold 1,321.70 +1.83%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 211.54 -.01%

• Copper 323.05 -2.34%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 290.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 514.50 CNY/100 Metric Tonnes +7.19%

• Lumber 459.0 +2.82%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,020.12 +.94%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.7% -10.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 3.5% unch.
  

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0460 -5.75% 

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 237.16 +36.76%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 147.67 +.81%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 75.0 -.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 46.0 -3.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.3 +3.0 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 84.0% chance of no change, 16.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 1/31

• US Dollar Index 91.96 -.76%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,691.91 +1.03%

• Bitcoin/USD 16,314.50 +14.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.04 +.75%

• Yield Curve 51.75 -10.5 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.48% +7.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.404 Trillion -.12%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.76 +.04%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 251.92 -.03%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 3.97 n/a

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 11.36 -10.38%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 30.66 -6.34%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 58.62 +9.54%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 46.90 -11.3%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 116.85 -1.31%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 146.32 +.27%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.03% +5.0 basis points

• TED Spread 31.0 -.5 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.75 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.25 -2.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 45.86 -7.11%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 348.0 -5.94%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 42.28 -3.59%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 111.74 -6.53%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 163.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.609 Trillion -.07%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,086.20 +.6%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 241,750 +4,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.4% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.95% -4.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 368.60 +.68%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 51.8 -.6 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +4.30% +20.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.49/gallon +.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,341.0 -6.22%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 773.28 +.34%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 -11.11%

• Rail Freight Carloads 202,352 -28.0%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +2.4%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -.1%

Leading Sectors

• Oil Service +5.0%

• Robotics +4.6%

• Social Media +4.4%

• Shipping +4.2%

• Disk Drives +3.9%

Lagging Sectors

• Telecom -.5% 

• Airlines -.9%

• Gaming -1.5%

• REITs -2.4%

• Utilities -3.3%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (7)

• BOLD, ATRA, UCTT, EDGE, WLH, TMHC and LNDC

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (6)

• BCEI, D, PEN, MGI, ADTN and WATT

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Economic Optimism, Yen Weakness, Technical Buying, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 9.34 +1.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.02 +.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.68 -.13%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.92 -1.62%

• ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 -11.5%
  

• Total Put/Call .89 +8.54%

• NYSE Arms 1.02 +15.15%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 45.86 -.37%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 347.0 -1.68%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 42.28 +.04%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 3.96 n/a

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 11.36 -5.96%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 111.74 -.70%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 146.32 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.75 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 31.0 +2.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.25 -2.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.20 +.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.40% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 51.5 -.25 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 514.50 CNY/100 Metric Tonnes +2.29%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 75.0 -3.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 46.0 -.8 basis point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.3 +.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.03 +3.0 basis points
  
• 79.8% chance of Fed rate hike at March 21 meeting, 81.1% chance at May 2 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +106 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +67 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my medical/tech/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -.8% 2) Biotech -.5% 3) Gold & Silver -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• KALA, RENN, RGNX, CORE, TVPT, DB, CALM and BOLD

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) STZ 2) RCII 3) URBN 4) SRPT 5) ALGN

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BKS 2) ROKU 3) CROX 4) PSMT 5) JCI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Software +1.0% 2) Semis +.9% 3) Road & Rail +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CRSP, SRE, IIPR, DWCH, TELL, WNS, INSY, TMHC, CASA, BLX, APPN, FCAU, ANTX, MNTA, TCCO, DPLO, XLNX, CTMX, SF, USG, MTEM, PJT, OSTK, MIME, HNP, CBPX, MTSI, SQ and BYD

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FOX 2) STZ 3) IGT 4) XLNX 5) FDX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) XLNX 2) MTSI 3) TRUP 4) BYD 5) RDFN

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.7% Above 100-Day Average
• 7 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 53.5% of Issues Advancing, 43.6% Declining
• 193 New 52-Week Highs, 17 New Lows
• 65.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.6%
• Vix 9.08 -1.52%
• Total Put/Call .87 +6.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.25 +40.9%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Crypto Stock Fever Misses China as Investors Sour on Small Caps. Chinese stock investors don’t seem to share the global enthusiasm for companies jumping on the cryptocurrency bandwagon. Shenzhen Forms Syntron Information Co. has fallen 22 percent since announcing in March an agreement to promote blockchain in Hong Kong and the banking industry. Easysight Supply Chain Management Co. has lost 18 percent since saying in April it will work with IBM to use blockchain. Compare that with the U.S., where companies making everything from juice to sports bras have seen their shares surge after announcing cryptocurrency ventures.

• Asia Stocks Extend Strong 2018 Start; Dollar Slips. Asian stocks are on the cusp of their best week in almost six months as investors around the world pile into equities at the start of 2018 amid robust economic data from the U.S. to Europe to China. Benchmark indexes in Tokyo and Sydney are in the green after U.S. shares surged to fresh records Thursday. The dollar is headed for a fourth straight week of losses as the global economic expansion spurs investors to look at markets with lower valuations and better risk-return prospects. Commodities steadied after a record run of gains, with oil trading close to its highest in three years. Japan’s Topix Index rose 0.6 percent as of 9:06 a.m. in Tokyo, and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average was up 0.5 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 Index were little changed after the underlying gauge gained 0.4 percent Thursday to a record close. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rallied 0.4 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.6 percent.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• Warren Buffett Says Years of U.S. Growth ‘Certainly Lie Ahead’. Billionaire Warren Buffett remains optimistic about the U.S. economy and the nation's prospects for the future. Buffett wrote an essay for Time magazine that appeared online Thursday, part of an issue edited by Bill Gates that was dedicated to "The Optimists." In his essay, Buffett explained why he often says that most American children will live better than their parents. Buffett said that even if the economy continues to grow at a modest pace of about 2 percent a year, the next generation of Americans will fare better because the economy will still grow faster than the U.S. population does. Buffett said American businesses will also continue to innovate. "This game of economic miracles is in its early innings. Americans will benefit from far more and better 'stuff' in the future," Buffett wrote.

• Peter Thiel Is Reportedly Exploring Launching Conservative News Outlet.

• Apple(AAPL) Says All Macs, iPhones and iPads Exposed to Chip Security Flaws.

Wall Street Journal:

• As Dow Tops 25000, Individual Investors Sit It Out. Since 2012, $1 trillion has been pulled from retail-investor mutual funds that target U.S. stocks.

• Make Iran Great Again. Like Barack Obama, Iran’s leaders don’t know how a real economy works.

• Trump Administration Proposes Massive Expansion of Oil Drilling. Plan would open 90% of offshore areas for drilling starting in 2019.

• Weinstein Co. Close to Sale for Less Than $500 Million. Bidders include private investors, entertainment companies, investment firms.

• Blizzard Conditions Slam East Coast. Snow fell along the Mid-Atlantic coast, closing schools, workplaces and airports and making roads treacherous.

• NFL Ratings Fall at Faster Pace. Average audience for a game fell 9.7% to 14.9 million, but league says NFL programming still accounted for 33 of top 50 programs on TV in 2017.

MarketWatch.com:

• 10 favorite stocks for 2018 from top-ranked stock newsletter writers.

• New tax laws will boost stock markets, Wells Fargo(WFC) says.

• SEC, CFTC warn of risk of virtual currencies and initial coin offerings.

Fox News:

• DOJ deal gives Nunes access to 'all' documents, witnesses sought in Russia probe, letter says. (video)

CNBC: 

• Dow closes above 25,000 for the first time after strong jobs data. (video)

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: SHLD, SONC & more.

• Stunning images of the 'bomb cyclone'. (pic)

• Investor who called last two major market crashes says bitcoin is a bubble.

• Trump aims to open nearly all federal waters to offshore drilling in biggest lease sale ever. (video)

• David Tepper says market is as 'cheap’ as a year ago, bullish on Trump’s tax cuts. (video)

• Former Walmart.com CEO says Walmart store closures are a good sign for e-commerce. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• Global Commodities Surge To Longest Win Streak In History. (graph)

• Republican Senator Releases Full Unedited Comey Memo Showing Clinton "Grossly Negligent".

• The Debt Beneath.

• These Are The 103 Stores That Sears Announced It Will Be Closing.

• Homeland Security Data Breach Exposed Over 240,000 DHS Employees In "Unauthorized Exfiltration".

• Pot Stocks Tumble After Jeff Sessions Rescinds Policies Allowing States To Legalize Pot.

• Tesla(TSLA) Bonds Tumble - Now 'Riskier' Than Indonesia.

• Dow Tops 25k As Gold Surges To All-Time Record Win Streak. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Top conservative megadonor cuts ties with Bannon as pressure grows to oust him from Breitbart News.

• Apple(AAPL) just shared some staggering statistics about how well the App Store is doing.

• JetBlue(JBLU) is giving all of its crew members a $1,000 bonus.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are .unch  to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 -1.0 basis point. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 12.0 -.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.21 +.03%.

• S&P 500 futures +.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (AZZ)/.58

• (CALM)/.70

• (STZ)/1.89

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for December is estimated to fall to 190K versus 228K in November.

• The Unemployment Rate for December is estimated at 4.1% versus 4.1% in November.

• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for December are estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in November.

• The Trade Deficit for November is estimated at -$50.0B versus -$48.7B in October.

10:00 am EST

• ISM Non-Manufacturing for December is estimated to rise to 57.5 versus 57.4 in November. 

• Factory Orders for November are estimated to rise +1.1% versus a -.1% decline in October.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Mester speaking, Fed's Harker speaking and the Eurozone Retail Sales/CPI reports could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.