Sunday, August 05, 2018

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg: 
  • Yuan Steadies After PBOC, Asia Stocks Set to Gain. The yuan held on to its gains after a surprise move by the central bank to make it more expensive to bet against the currency triggered a rally in China’s currency. Asian stocks pointed to a small advance as earnings seasons rolls on. The offshore yuan maintained Friday’s gains when the People’s Bank of China announced a rule tweak in a bid to ease pressure on the yuan. Equity futures signaled a higher open for markets in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia ahead of results from regional heavyweights HSBC Holdings Plc and Softbank Group Corp. U.S. shares rose Friday, when the yield on 10-year Treasuries slipped to 2.95 percent. The Canadian dollar declined after Saudi Arabia froze all trade and investments with Canada. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 were up 0.3 percent in Singapore. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 advanced 0.3 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.7 percent. FTSE China A50 futures climbed 0.8 percent.  
MarketWatch.com:
Zero Hedge:              
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.0 +.75 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 10.75 -.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.47 unch.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.12%
  • S&P 500 futures +.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (CAH)/.93
  • (JEC)/1.21
  • (NWL)/.78
  • (BID)/1.55
  • (TSN)/1.36
After the Close:
  • (BRKS)/.43
  • (HTZ)/-.25
  • (LGND)/2.38
  • (MTW)/.24
  • (MAR)/1.38
  • (MOS)/.38
  • (OSTK)/-.82
  • (THC)/.23
  • (WTW)/.88
  • (ZG)/.10
Economic Releases
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German Factory Orders report, Iran sanctions taking hold and (FAST) June sales report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on stable long-term rates, positive earnings outlooks, US economic optimism, oil gains, short-covering and technical buying. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, August 04, 2018

Today's Headlines

Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (AAPL), (UAL), (GOOGL), (AMCX) and (CVS).
Zero Hedge: 

Friday, August 03, 2018

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,839.79 +.70%





















The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
 
Indices
  • DJIA 25,440.50 -.04%
  • NASDAQ 7,806.93 +.86%
  • Russell 2000 1,673.54 +.60%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 44.25 -.29%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 163.39 +.61%
  • Wilshire 5000 29,456.70 +.71%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,505.94 +.80%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,234.32 +.68%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 557.63 +1.82%
  • Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.6222 -.98%
  • NYSE Technology 1,902.38 -.40%
  • Transports 11,092.30 +1.24%
  • Utilities 728.98 +1.08%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 89.48 -.84%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 43.97 -1.55%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,285.18 -.12%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,005.10 -.36%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 328,328 -.16%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -107 -254
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 37.5 -49.5%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 610,471 -3.30%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,361,062 -3.25%
  • Total Put/Call .91 -14.4%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.57 +362.2%
  • ISE Sentiment 142.0 +55.2%
  • NYSE Arms .70 -1.35%
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.77 -11.21%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 26.74 -7.32%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.29 +.14% 
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.11 +.80%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 16,144.96 -1.29%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.851 Trillion +.3%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$2.963 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 29.1 -7.7%
  • AAII % Bears 32.1 +19.3%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 193.23 -.55%
  • Crude Oil 68.53 -1.06%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 206.81 -2.31%
  • Natural Gas 2.85 +1.92%
  • Heating Oil 213.38 -1.47%
  • Gold 1,217.90 -.34%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 186.75 -1.19%
  • Copper 275.70 -1.40%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 341.67 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 69.30 USD/Metric Tonne +2.97%
  • Lumber 426.50 -7.3%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 954.35 +.87%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.4% +60.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.0% +20.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index n/a
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 203.35 +74.0%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 170.75 +.60%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -15.0 -9.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -31.50 +.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.1 -2.4 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 10.0% chance of no change, 90.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 9/26
  • US Dollar Index 95.16 +.48%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,619.22 -.42%
  • Bitcoin/USD 7,460.57 -8.55%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.01 -.39%
  • Yield Curve 31.0 +2.25 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.95% -1.0 basis point
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.216 Trillion -.52%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.62 -4.76%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 194.72 +4.29%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 252.0 +18.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 10.80 -9.63%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 78.51 +9.49%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 68.72 +1.78%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.22 +6.0%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 135.0 +1.73%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.18 +.43%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12% unch.
  • TED Spread 34.0 -1.25 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.25 +2.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.5 -1.75 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 59.37 +1.52%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 364.0 -.74%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 78.40 +6.22%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 168.72 +3.78%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.670 Trillion -.01%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,066.90 -.1%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 214,500 -3,500
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.60% +6.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 353.10 -2.57%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 58.6 -.4 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +3.70% +20.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.87/gallon +.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,756.0 +4.77%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 821.13 +.04%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50 +12.5%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 287,920 +.08%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +.7%
Worst Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth unch.
Leading Sectors
  • Telecom +3.4%
  • REITs +2.8%
  • Healthcare Providers +2.2%
  • Drugs +2.1%
  • Biotech +1.6%
Lagging Sectors
  • Disk Drives -2.0% 
  • I-Banks -2.0%
  • Steel -3.0%
  • Social Media -3.7%
  • Gaming -6.3%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (28)
  • CTRL, HMSY, ACIA, WAIR, NUS, ELY, BMS, UMRX, MDRX, FTSI, ITT, TCS, BRKR, CERN, RLGY, GBT, ESIO, DNOW, TDS, AMC, CORT, PCRX, TNDM, MUSA, GIS and FLO
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (27)
  • MTZ, RTRX, MSI, JELD, RMD, ATVI, KTOS, ANET, TWOU, CNSL, VRAY, FND, DATA, SEM, CLVS, NBL, APPN, DFIN, RARE, AMN, AMN, BRS, SGMS, SHAK, PI, GTT, TSRO and IMMR
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*5-Day Change