Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Earnings Outlooks, Short-Covering, Biotech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 11.0 -2.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.42 +.37%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.28 +.59%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 28.33 -4.6%

• ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 -5.9%
  

• Total Put/Call .89 unch.

• NYSE Arms .93 -19.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.98 -1.32%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 359.0 -.50%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.74 -3.18%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 246.0 -5.5 basis points
  

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.10 -6.14%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 173.10 +.60%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.30 -.07%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.75 -.75 basis point

• TED Spread 30.25 -3.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.75 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.21 +.34%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.04% +3.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 30.25 +1.5 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 69.77 USD/Metric Tonne +.24%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -13.0 +.9 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -35.70 -.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.80 -.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 +1.0 basis point
  
• 92.5% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 8th meeting, 97.8% chance at Dec. 19th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +33 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +89 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/industrial/biotech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -.7% 2) Foods -.4% 3) Utilities -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TPVG, ONCE, Z, MAXR, XRAY, OMI, WTW, LMNX, PTGX, QNST, GTT, XOG, GSKY, ATSG, EXPD, DPLO, BRKS, CRZO, THC and XRAY

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FTR 2) Z 3) WTW 4) THC 5) DBD

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ZG 2) XOG 3) PDCE 4) AVDL 5) NWL

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuildng +1.6% 2) Steel +1.6% 3) Alt Energy +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PDD, HTZ, TWLO, SKY, FIVN, ETSY, MNK, HEAR, AIN, ARMK, AKCA, SODA, FSS, FRPT, VREX, VCEL, ZBRA, USCR, LFVN, LGND, REGI, GAIA, SEAS, IIVI, TCMD, BR, RPD, ATKR, LGIH, TAST, BLD, TSLA, SATS, RESI, CDEV, OAS, ITRI, LPX and LITE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) Z 2) HTZ 3) CAR 4) ESRX 5) EMR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TWLO 2) OD 3) BMRN 4) MNK 5) RNG

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.3% Below 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 56.2% of Issues Advancing, 40.5% Declining
• 109 New 52-Week Highs, 36 New Lows
• 54.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.3%
• Vix 11.1 -1.1%
• Total Put/Call .92 +3.4%
• TRIN/Arms .73 -36.6%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• North Korea's Pompeo Problem Exposes Widening Rift Over Talks.

• Trump Restores Iran Sanctions as Rouhani Feels Economic Pressure.

• Asia Stocks Open Mixed; Dollar, Treasuries Steady. Asian stocks opened mixed Tuesday as risk appetite remained subdued despite a positive U.S. session on earnings. The yen strengthened as the dollar steadied. Equity benchmarks ticked higher in Japan and were little changed in Australia and South Korea, while Hong Kong futures pointed to gains. The S&P 500 Index closed at its highest since January as Berkshire Hathaway bolstered financial shares and higher oil prices boosted energy producers. The yield on 10-year Treasuries held below 3 percent and the Cboe Volatility Index fell to its lowest since Jan. 26. Topix index rose 0.1 percent as of 9:13 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell less than 0.1 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index was little changed. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index futures added 0.4 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 were flat.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.   

• China-U.S. Battle Lines, Turkey Crisis, Korea's Exports: Eco Day.

Wall Street Journal:

• Carl Icahn to Publicly Oppose $54 Billion Cigna-Express Scripts Deal.

• Facebook(FB) Asks Big Banks to Share Data on Their Customers. 

• U.S.’s Renewed Iran Sanctions Take Aim at Economy.

MarketWatch.com:

• Stock market to get $1 trillion boost via buybacks, says Goldman Sachs.

• This stock sector most often beats analysts’ estimates.

• Mark Hulbert: Why the S&P 500 could gain another 10% from its previous high.

• One reason why wages aren’t rising faster: The gutting of middle-manager positions.

Fox News:

• Business partner says he conspired with Manafort to commit fraud, admits big-time embezzlement. 

• Antifa protesters accost conservatives Charlie Kirk and Candace Owens at cafe.

CNBC: 

• Goldman, Morgan Stanley raise GDP outlooks, and Goldman says jobless rate could be lowest since 1953.

• Twitter(TWTR) says Alex Jones and InfoWars accounts don't violate policy. 

• After-hours buzz: TWLO, Z & more.

• China’s stock market plunge will not force the country to give up in its trade war with US.

• Tech stocks should still be a portfolio favorite, despite recent weakness: Deutsche Bank.

• China's monetary policy is complex and shifting. Here's what you need to know.

• Etsy(ETSY) and Twilio(TWLO) are rocketing higher, but one internet stock looks best.

Zero Hedge:  

• Hours Before Trump Restores Iran Sanctions, Rouhani Says "Open To Negotiations".

• Saudis Apologize To Canada For 9/11-Style "Attack" Tweet.

• Japanese Cash Earnings Spike Most In 21 Years (But Spending Slump Continues).

• Banks Ease Lending Standards Just As Loan Bubble Shows First Signs Of Popping.

• Krieger: "Stop Complaining And Just Delete Facebook(FB)".

• Employee Sues UGA For Declining To Pay For 'Transition' Surgery.

• UCLA Makes Students Pay Classmates To Promote "Social Justice".

• Want A Socialist Society? First, Abandon Your Hopes And Dreams.

• Margin Call? Turkish Lira Flash-Crashes As Central Bank Intervention Fails.

• Stocks, Bonds Manage Modest Gains Despite Global Currency Carnage.

Business Insider:

• Zillow(ZG) craters 19% after revenue guidance misses expectations.

• 'The worst I've ever seen it': 11 shot dead, 63 more wounded in Chicago over the weekend.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 81.5 -.75 basis point. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 10.75 -.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.08 +.15%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.05%

• S&P 500 futures -.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (DF)/.15

• (DISCA)/.86

• (EMR)/.86

• (FSS)/.33

• (ODP)/.04

• (SAGE)/-1.81

After the Close:

• (DDD)/.01

• (CAR)/.57

• (FOSL)/-.58

• (JAZZ)/3.21

• (PZZA)/.54

• (DIS)/1.95

• (WEN)/.16

Economic Releases 
10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for June are estimated to fall to 6625 versus 6638.

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for June is estimated to fall to $15.0B versus $24.559B in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Germany Industrial Production report, $34B 3Y T-Note auction, Ohio House Special election, US weekly retail sales report, Jefferies Industrials Conference, Oppenheimer Tech/Internet/Communications Conference, UBS Financial Services Conference, JPMorgan Auto Conference, (ORLY) analyst day and the (PSMT) monthly sales report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Optmism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Oil Gain, Telecom/Construction Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 11.3 -3.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.93 +.01%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.23 +.89%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 29.03 -1.16%

• ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 -28.9%
  

• Total Put/Call .95 +5.56%

• NYSE Arms 1.26 +73.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.78 -.34%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 360.0 -.68%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.26 +.87%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 251.50 -1.5 basis points
  

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.75 -.37%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 171.78 +1.5%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.41 +.15%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.5 -.75 basis point

• TED Spread 33.75 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.75 +.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.09 -.54%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.01% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 28.75 -2.25 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 69.77 USD/Metric Tonne +.24%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -13.90 +1.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -35.30 -3.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.50 +.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 unch.
  
• 90.3% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 8th meeting, 97.1% chance at Dec. 19th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +73 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +43 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/medical/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long