Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -3.7% Below 100-Day Average

• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining

• 56.1% of Issues Advancing, 39.9% Declining

• 93 New 52-Week Highs, 24 New Lows

• 54.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average

• Average 14-Day RSI 49.3%

• Vix 10.8 -.9%

• Total Put/Call .88 -8.3%

• TRIN/Arms 1.27 +11.6%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• BOJ Watchers Pare Back Expectations of Future Policy Changes.

• Asia Stocks Signal Decline on Trade; Kiwi Slips. Asia stocks looked set to drop as China hit back against the Trump administration’s latest tariffs and tensions ratcheted up between the U.S. and Russia. Oil tumbled. Futures pointed to a lower open for stocks in Hong Kong, Japan and China. The S&P 500 Index was little changed, remaining about half a percentage point shy of its all-time record. Treasuries edged up as investors scooped up a record $26 billion 10-year auction. The ruble slumped as the U.S. announced new sanctions on Russia. The kiwi declined after the New Zealand central bank pushed out its forecast for a rate increase by a year as the outlook for economic growth weakens. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.4 percent in Singapore. Futures on the FTSE China A50 Index lost 0.1 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 0.2 percent.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. 

• China Retaliates, Whither the Yuan, BOJ Could Stand Pat: Eco Day.

• Tech Stocks Join Tesla in Burning Bears With Short Bets Backfiring.  

• Private Banks Are the New Hedge Funds.

Wall Street Journal:

• Chicago’s Violence and Its Leadership Deficit.

• U.S. to Impose New Sanctions on Russia Over U.K. Nerve Agent Attack.

• China Retaliates With New Tariffs, Hunkering Down for Long Trade Fight.

• The EU Spent a Bundle to Unify the Continent. It’s Not Working.

• Facing a Critical Shortage, Airlines Scramble to Hire New Pilots.

MarketWatch.com:

• U.S. companies’ sales growth is accelerating — here are the biggest winners.

• Bitcoin meltdown: worlds biggest coin plunges 10% Wednesday.

Fox News:

• How the blitz from Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez failed to lift democratic socialists to victory.

• Man at 'extremist Muslim' compound trained kids in school shootings: docs.

CNBC: 

• After-hours buzz: YELP, ROKU & more.

• Tesla likely to face SEC investigation following Musk tweets amid debate of market manipulation.

• Alphabet, Apple and two other stocks to buy as the S&P nears records.

• China slams oil prices, but tariff war can't stop U.S. boom in oil and gas exports.

• Here's what you need to know about this new 'investor protection' rule.

• Salesforce's(CRM) new co-CEO Keith Block explains how the company will keep growing.

Zero Hedge:  

• "Heavily Armed" Muslim Extremists Arrested In NM; Trained 11 Children To Commit School Shootings.

• Amazon(AMZN) HQ2? Mysterious "Project Rocket" Takes Another Step Forward Outside. Atlanta.

• Where Are We In The Trade Wars: A Q&A With Goldman Sachs.

• Conservative Students Feel Pressure To Self-Censor To Succeed On Campus.

• China Taunts The US: "We Will Survive Your Trade War".

• Five Lessons From Ohio Special Election, Primaries.

• The Key Word In "Democratic Socialism" Is "Socialism".

• Bill Gross' Fund Assets Plunge 50% In Just 5 Months.

• New York City Approves Cap On Uber Drivers, Sets Minimum Wage.

• SEC Launches Inquiry Into Musk "Going Private" Tweet, Examining If Statement "Truthful".

• Nasdaq Bounces But Dollar, Ruble, Cryptos, China, Tesla, Italy, & Crude Crumble.

Business Insider:

• Shake Shack(SHAK) is testing its high-tech ordering kiosks in more restaurants across the country. Here's what they're like to use.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.25 -.5 basis point. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 10.25 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.95 -.02%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.05%

• S&P 500 futures -.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (GOOS)/-.22

• (DDS)/-.48

• (LOXO)/-1.56

• (VIAB)/1.07

After the Close:

• (DBX)/.06

• (MCHP)/1.48

• (NWSA)/.06

• (OSTK)/-.82

• (RDFN)/.01

• (OLED)/.17

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 220K versus 218K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1730K versus 1724K prior.

• PPI Final Demand MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in June.

• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in June.

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +2.5% gain in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Evans speaking, China CPI report, US/Japan trade talks, Japan GDP report, $18B 30Y T-Note auction, Bloomberg Aug. US Economic Survey, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, CSFB SMid-Cap Conference, (BKE) sales update and the (CATO)/(LB) sales updates with guidance could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlooks, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Restaurant/Healthcare Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 10.6 -2.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.17 -.18%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.41 +.29%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 28.33 -.67%

• ISE Sentiment Index 76.0 -34.48%
  

• Total Put/Call 1.01 +9.78%

• NYSE Arms 1.14 +11.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.03 -.44%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 359.0 +.70%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.51 +2.31%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 251.50 +5.5 basis points
  

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.17 +.74%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 175.08 +1.34%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.30 -.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 -1.25 basis points

• TED Spread 29.0 -1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.5 +.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.04 -.38%

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.05% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 29.75 -.5 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 69.44 USD/Metric Tonne -.16%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -13.10 -.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -35.10 +.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.80 +1.0 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 unch.
  

• 94.8% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 8th meeting, 98.5% chance at Dec. 19th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -19 open in Japan 

• China A50 Futures: Indicating unch. open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -13 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -.8% 2) I-Banks -.6% 3) Oil Service -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• NYT, TWNK, WSFS, CUTR, FOSL, PEN, GCP, CBB, PZZA, LITE, SFLY, BOFI, CAR, BECN, AAXN, GVA, NWL, MGA, SINA, SNAP, QDEL, JLL and FSS

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DBD 2) CAR 3) DVMT 4) ESRX 5) FOSL

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FTK 2) CVRS 3) BECN 4) TWNK 5) AAXN

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume