Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gaming -3.9% 2) Semis -2.6% 3) Oil Service -2.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ZLAB, LE, PRFT, TLYS, IOVA, REVG, ALRM, DRNA, SGMO, DOCU, CGC, MU, NAV, CRON, ZS, WYNN and KLAC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SWN 2) FITB 3) SSO 4) CAG 5) SIRI

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) KLAC 2) SWN 3) SNAP 4) TLRY 5) INSY

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +1.8% 2) Defense +1.5% 3) Coal +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ARWR, CLDR, GIII, MBUU, CXP, VRNT, SPPI, AVAV, GWRE, AUDC, NVCR, CTRP, DCI, GGAL, JD, CBS, ASIX, CMTA, IART, MDB, AGX, TGS, MCFT and BLX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CLDR 2) TPX 3) SWN 4) DOV 5) XME

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NVCR 2) CLDR 3) VRNT 4) MDB 5) SPPI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -12.0% Below 100-Day Average
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 45.8% of Issues Advancing, 50.0% Declining
• 76 New 52-Week Highs, 58 New Lows
• 52.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.8%
• Vix 14.6 +4.8%
• Total Put/Call 1.03 +5.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.52 +127.8%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.5 -.75 basis point. 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 13.0 +1.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.11 +.03%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.01%.
• S&P 500 futures -.12%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (BKS)/-.10
• (DCI)/.58
• (GIII)/.03
• (JW/A)/.50
• (LE)/-.04
• (NAV)/.91

After the Close:

• (AVGO)/4.82
• (FNSR)/.12
• (FIVE)/.38
• (GME)/.07
• (KFY)/.71
• (MRVL)/.35
• (PANW)/1.17
• (OKTA)/-.19
• (NX)/.32
• (ZUMZ)/.14

Economic Releases 
7:30 am EST

• Challenger Jobs Report YoY for August.

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for August is estimated to fall to 200K versus 219K in July.

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated at 213K versus 213K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1720K versus 1708K prior.

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for August is estimated to rise to 56.8 versus 55.7 in July. 
• Factory Orders for July are estimated to fall -.6% versus a +.7% gain in June.

11:00 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,382,000 barrels versus a -2,566,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,372,420 barrels versus a -1,554,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +117,5000 barrels versus a -837,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.34% versus a -1.8% decline prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, German Factory Orders Conference, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Morgan Stanley Industrials Conference, Goldman Fintech Conference, Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference, BofA Merrill Media/Communications/Entertainment Conference and the (NTGR) analyst day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Trade War Fears, Oil Decline, Profit-Taking, Tech/Gaming Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.45 +2.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.84 +.36%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.96 +1.09%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 29.32 +4.86%

• ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 -19.23%
  

• Total Put/Call .98 +16.7%

• NYSE Arms .79 -29.77%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.0 -.76%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 418.0 +.91%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.28 -2.28%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 255.50 -10.5 basis points
  

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.97 +11.0%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 234.07 -4.49%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 151.38 +.28%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.5 -.75 basis point

• TED Spread 17.5 -3.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.25 -1.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.09 +.22%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.13% +2.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 25.0 +.5 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 67.29 USD/Metric Tonne +.96%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.0 -.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 5.20 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.30 +1.7 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.10 unch.
  
• 95.3% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 8th meeting, 98.6% chance at Dec. 19th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -29 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -58 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my retail/tech/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Social Media -2.6% 2) Oil Service -2.4% 3) Software -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• IEP, SGMO, RH, JD, TLYS, SMAR, ZUO, IIN, WDAY, BLFS, CAL, TRHC, HAL, NTNX, RHI and AAOI

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RH 2) GME 3) LCI 4) HAL 5) AIMC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) JD 2) RHI 3) MYGN 4) FIVE 5) VAIL

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume