Tuesday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Ireland Rules Out Time-Limited Backstop: Brexit Update.

• May Won't Rule Out Brexit Delay as U.K. Parliament Takes Control.

• U.S.-China Trade Talks Falling Short on Make-Or-Break IP Issues. 

• China's Xi Warns Party of `Serious Dangers' as Risks Mount.

• China's Softer Slowdown Is No Respite for Global Growth Worries.   

• Italy's Growth Outlook Is Cut by IMF in Warning to Government.

• Asian Stocks See a Muted Start; U.S. Futures Drop. Asian stocks saw muted trading early Tuesday as investors weighed the latest batch of headlines on global growth and trade, without any direction offered from American markets that were shut for a holiday Monday. Shares were flat in Japan and dipped in Australia after stocks in Europe slipped on Monday. Contracts on the S&P 500 Index declined. The dollar steadied and bonds in Europe were mixed. News that the IMF was cutting its global growth forecast to the weakest in three years merely cemented an already downbeat mood. The offshore yuan was steady after President Xi Jinping stressed the need to maintain political stability in an unusual meeting that suggested fresh concerns about the implications of the slowing economy. Japan’s Topix Index was little changed at 9:19 a.m. in Tokyo. S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.2 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 Index sank 0.4 percent.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• China Yet to Bottom, Davos Warning, Trade Talks Debate: Eco Day.

• Oil Steadies Near Two-Month High as U.S. Drilling Slows Down.  

• Confident Oil Industry Set to Ratchet Up Spending in 2019.

• Trump, Democrats Inch Closer to a Compromise.  

• Poor Earnings Season May Not Stop a Market Rally, JPMorgan Says.  

• IMF, CEOs Warn of Slowing World Economy on Eve of Davos Summit.

Wall Street Journal:

• Israel Hits Iranian Targets in Syria After Golan Attack.

• Arctic Blast Brings Cold Snap Across Northeast.

• For Sanity’s Sake, Delete Your Account.

• Trump, Key European Leaders Skip Davos Amid Turmoil at Home.

• Overseas Investment Seen Gaining as U.S. Firms Repatriate Less Profit.

• Insurgents Attack Intelligence-Agency Base in Afghanistan, Killing Dozens.

MarketWatch.com:

• Asian markets rise despite slower economic growth in China.

Fox News:

• Giuliani says his team, Mueller’s team talked, agreed much of article false.

• House Judiciary Democrat: Kavanaugh 'likely' will be investigated for perjury.

• Ex-top FBI lawyer personally involved in Trump aide FISA warrant, other probe irregularities.

CNBC:

• IMF says the global economic expansion is losing momentum as it cuts growth forecasts.

• Defense and tech stocks are the big winners of Trump’s first 2 years in office.

• The number of births in China hit its lowest level since 1961.

• Here’s some of the technology that’s set to make a ‘quantum leap’ in 2019.

Zero Hedge: 

• The 'Gilets Jaunes' Are Unstoppable: "Now, The Elites Are Afraid".

• Blain: "China Is Juggling Half A Dozen Flaming Hand Grenades While Walking On A High Wire".

• Native American "Harassed" By MAGA Kids Exposed As Outrage-Culture Grifter.

• Iran Ready To "Eliminate Israel From The Earth"; IDF Trolls Tehran Over Twitter.

• Satellite Images Reveal China Is Building Secret War Bunkers Near Indian Border.

• Skripal Story Just Got Weirder; First Responder Revealed As Chief Army Nurse; Steele "Link" Blamed On Russia.

• Feds Prepare To Bail Out "Vast Majority" Of 90,000 Sears Pensions.

• Arctic Blast Brings Dangerously Cold Wind Chills To Northeast .

• Gundlach To Delete Twitter Account Due To "Suspicious Activity".

• May Rules Out Changes To Good Friday Agreement, Offers Parliament More Control Over Trade Negotiations.

• MAGA Hat Teen Speaks Out Amid Death Threats; Denounces "Outright Lies" About Tribal Elder Staredown.

• Writing Professor: Grading Based On Quality Is Racist.

• Kamala Harris Is Running For President.

• 'Why Can't They Take The Bus?' - Davos Locals Furious As Limos Clog Streets.

• "The Goal Is To Automate Us" - Welcome To The Age Of Surveillance Capitalism.

• Israel Announces Sustained Strikes On Damascus; Syria Fires Back In Major Escalation.

• Why "Democratic Vote Harvesting" Will Be The Biggest Topic Of 2020.

• Illinois' Lethal Combination: Rising Property Taxes & Stagnant Incomes.

• China 2018 GDP Growth Slows To Weakest In 28 Years.  

• More Fake News Exposed As Media Lies About Catholic Kids, Native American Debacle.

• MSM Begs For Trust After Buzzfeed Debacle.

Business Insider:

• Experts say this is what everyone will be wearing in 2019.

• A data point known as a canary in the coal mine for the global economy just fell off a cliff, and it's a troubling sign of how bad things are in China. 

• Apple(AAPL) should give the iPhone XS and iPhone XR a permanent price cut.

• The world's biggest YouTube stars told us they're burning out because of the unrelenting pressure to post new videos.

Telegraph:

• Comment: The 10 questions Remainers need to answer before stopping a no-deal Brexit.

• 'Big Short' guru says Corbyn bigger risk than a no-deal Brexit.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.75 -1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 58.75 -1.25 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.89 -.03%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.15%.

• S&P 500 futures -.41%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.50%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (ATI)/.34

• (FITB)/.67

• (HAL)/.37

• (JNJ)/1.95

• (LOGI)/.54

• (PETS)/.48

• (SWK)/2.10

• (STLD)/1.24

• (TRV)/2.40

After the Close:

• (COF)/2.39

• (IBM)/4.83

• (LRN)/.56

• (AMTD)/1.01

• (WYNN)/1.29

• (ZION)/1.06

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales MoM for Dec. is estimated to fall -.9% versus a +1.9% gain in Nov.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German ZEW Index and Davos 2019 could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 

• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.

• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as earnings optimism, dovish FOMC commentary and oil strength offset China trade deal worries, technical selling and government shutdown concerns. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• Trump-Kim February Summit Expected to Take Place in Vietnam.  

• Forget the Trade War. China Is Already in Crisis.      

• May Gives Up on Cross-Party Talks to Fix Brexit.    

• EU Is Split Over Delaying Brexit By as Much as a Year, Diplomats Say.

• Nintendo Rebounds as Optimistic Signs Emerge After a Brutal Year.

• Asian Stocks to Advance as Global Rally Builds. Asian stocks looked set to kick the week of on positive footing amid optimism steps are being taken toward a U.S.-China trade truce. Shares in Australia climbed, following late Friday gains for equity futures in Japan and Hong, after the S&P 500 Index advanced to the highest level since Dec. 6. In the latest sign the two sides are eager for a deal, a report showed China had offered a path to eliminate its trade imbalance with the U.S. by ramping up purchases of goods made in America. Treasury yields on 10-year notes pushed higher and the dollar rose. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced 1.5 percent late Friday in Singapore. Hang Seng futures rose 1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 0.5 percent. 

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• Italy's Slowing Economy Adds Pressure on Populists Over Budget. 

• Israeli Stocks Extend Gains With Mideast Gauges Mixed: Inside EM.

• The Future Is Now for LNG as Derivatives Trading Takes Off.

Wall Street Journal:

• Trump Takes Aim at Democrats Over Rejected DACA Offer.

• Davos 2019: Full Coverage.

• Big Names Bake a Climate Pie in the Sky.

• Bank Investors Look Beyond Trading Revenue to Deliver Strong Gains.

Fox News:

• Trump's immigration offer brings sharp reactions from Democrats and Republicans.

• BuzzFeed reporter, after rebuke by Mueller, unable to explain discrepancies.

CNBC:

• China set to post slowest growth in 28 years in 2018, more stimulus seen.

• TSA calls in backup officers as absences of unpaid airport screeners rise.

Zero Hedge:

• Trump Attorney Goes Ballistic After BuzzFeed Blunder; Demands DOJ Reveal Leakers.

• And The Most Politically-Biased Profession Is...

• Trump Slams "Radical Democrat" Pelosi - "They Don't See Drugs & Crime, They Only See 2020".

• Ocasio-Cortez Refuses To Condemn Anti-Semitism Within Women's March As Top Dems Cut Ties.

• The Yellow Vest Movement Has Gone Global.

• The Definitive List Of US/UK Media "Russiagate" Fake Stories.

• Inside Mueller's Decision To Refute Trump-Cohen BuzzFeed Story.

• Shutdown Woes Show How Overgrown Government Has Become.

• The Rise And Fall Of The American Downtown.

• Second Referendum: Beware The Deception Around A "No Deal" Brexit.

• NYC's Housing-Market Weakness Spreads From Manhattan To The Outer Boroughs.

• Visualizing The Snowball Of Global Government Debt.

• Hong Kong Housing Market Enters Correction Territory.

• Will Globalists Sacrifice The Dollar To Get Their 'New World Order'?

Business Insider:

• Fast food is getting more expensive as minimum wages rise 

• 'Fortnite' and other free games raked in more than $87 billion last year, and the rest of the gaming industry is starting to take note

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• U.K. Lawmaker Will Call for Indicative Votes on Brexit Motion.

• Explosion Kills Dozens in Mexico at Illegal Tap on Fuel Pipeline.

• Graham: End to Shutdown Possible In ‘Couple of Weeks’   

• December's Stock Carnage Sets Stage for Peaceful Earnings Season.

• Confidence Busted. Consensus Broken. And a Rally Like Few Others.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Public Face of Huawei’s Global Fight.

• Harvesting Democratic Votes.

• Special Counsel’s Office Disputes Trump-Cohen Story.

• U.S. Close to Ending Facebook Probe.

• Central Banks Struggle With Policy Settings.

• American Railways Chug Toward Automation.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (BATRA), (GDX), (NEM), (DLTR), (CHL), (EDU) and (FOX).

• Had bearish commentary on (ATVI) and (EA).

MarketWatch.com:

• 773 million email addresses exposed in ‘mega data breach’ — here’s how to see if yours is one of them. 

• Druckenmiller pushes into cloud stocks, saying they’re disruptive and defensive at the same time.

Fox News:

• Trump, Giuliani slam debunked BuzzFeed report ‘gleefully embraced’ by media, Dems.

• Trump offers immigration deal to end government shutdown; Dems cool to offer.

• Where Trump stands on his campaign pledges as he reaches halfway mark.

CNBC: 

• Tesla has $920 million in debt that’s coming due — and it could wipe out a large chunk of its cash.
  

• Winter storm grounds hundreds of flights at start of holiday weekend.

• Disney is already losing over $1 billion in streaming, and its Netflix competitor has yet to launch.

• Trump says deal ‘could very well happen’ with China, but denies he’s considering lifting tariffs.

Zero Hedge:

• Mueller's Office Confirms Buzzfeed's Trump-Cohen Story Is Fake News.

• Trump Attorney Goes Ballistic After BuzzFeed Blunder; Demands DOJ Reveal Leakers.

• "Huawei Death Sentence": Trump Said To Prepare Executive Order Restricting Chinese Telecoms.

• Rebel UK MPs Are Planning To Seize Power From Theresa May.

• Yellow Vests Battle Tear Gas And Aggressive Riot Cops During 10th Week Of Chaotic Protests.

• BlackRock Accidentally Exposes Confidential Sales Data For Thousands Of Financial Advisors.

• Democrats Reject Trump's "BRIDGE Act" Deal, Say "Not A Good Faith Effort".

• This Is The Reason Smart TVs Are So Cheap.

• Watch Robot Dog Deliver A Package From Autonomous Shuttle.

• Solar Investment Plunges Amid Panel Glut.

• Automating Retail: Googly-Eyed Robots Are Coming to Nearly 500 Grocery Stores.

• Machiavellianism And Brexit.

• "Everybody Knew" WSJ Exposes Bruce Ohr's Shocking Admission To The FBI.

• Indian State With 600,000 People To Conduct World's Largest Experiment In Universal Basic Income.

• Trump To Make "Major Announcement" On Border & Shutdown.

• Debt Is The Achilles Heel Of The Globalist Establishment.

• Trump Attorney Says BuzzFeed Story "Categorically False" As Journos Come Under Fire.

• Significant Weekend Snow Storm Expected To Batter Northeast.

• Small Caps Soar To Best Start Since 1987 As China Adds Record Liquidity.

• Hedge Funds Suffer Massive $22.5 Billion In Q4 Outflows.

Business Insider:

• Kirsten Gillibrand broke down what her 'Abolish ICE' proposal would look like during a campaign visit to Iowa.

• The best new technology we saw at CES 2019.

The Telegraph:

• Comment: Global growth is slowing but there are reasons to be cheerful.