Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Concerns, Oil Decline, Profit-Taking, Medical/Healthcare Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.2 +11.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.72 +.05%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.75 -.15%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.2 +3.72%

• ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 -10
  

• Total Put/Call .91 +3.41%

• NYSE Arms .94 +28.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.97 +.96%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 643.0 -1.2%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.35 -.27%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 158.25 -5.5 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.71 -.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 199.46 -.35%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.48 -.24%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 1.5 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 38.5 +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 -2.75 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.71 +.02%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.53% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve .21 -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 92.25 USD/Metric Tonne +.38%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.9 -2.6 basis points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index .3 +6.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -23.6 -.6 basis point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.70 unch.
• 8.3% chance of Fed rate cut at Jan. 29th meeting, 19.5% chance of cut at March 18th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -35 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -33 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Medical Equipment -1.2% 2) I-Banks -.6% 3) Social Media -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BLUE, DY, CDLX, IFF, GBT, EVER, PGNY, SGMO, MNRL, BPMC, TVTY and DTIL

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) PCG 2) SFIX 3) ARQL 4) HTZ 5) BIG

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CGIP 2) KOS 3) MNK 4) YJ 5) MPC

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Shipping +1.3% 2) Steel +1.1% 3) Retail +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ARQL, FTSV, FATE, PCG, BBIO, CNST, NKTR, SWTX, ITCI, PRNB, TCBI, TPTX, DLTH, TLYS, NBLX, ZM, GCO, BIG, LE, PD, PTON, CLVS, WING, BBBY, SGRY, FCX, MOV, VRA, IBTX, LPG, CLDR, SFIX, DKS, DCPH, ZUO, AGIO, YEXT, THC, KHC, SPPI, KOD, GLW, TEXT, AGIO and CONN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GLW 2) RRC 3) TPR 4) DPLO 5) ARQL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ARQL 2) FISV 3) FATE 4) TGTX 5) AR

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -10.7% Below 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 55.7% of Issues Advancing, 40.3% Declining
• 77 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 58.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.9%
• Vix 14.5 +6.1%
• Total Put/Call .80 -9.1%
• TRIN/Arms .73 unch.

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• China’s Unexpected Export Drop Shows Why It Wants a Trade Deal.  

• Biggest Hong Kong Protest in Months Signals More Unrest in 2020.     

• Johnson Returns to Key Brexit Message as Polls Put Him Ahead.  

• Japan’s Economy Grew Much Faster Than First Estimated in Q3.

• Asia Stocks Start Week Firmer; Treasuries Steady. Asian stocks kicked off the week with modest gains after U.S. equities rallied Friday on better-than-expected jobs data. Treasuries stabilized after declines. Equity benchmarks opened higher in Tokyo, Sydney and Seoul. Gains were modest with the key Dec. 15 U.S.-China tariff deadline looming with no specific plan for a trade deal. Weekend data showing a drop in Chinese exports underlined the stakes for growth. S&P 500 futures were flat after the index logged gains Friday after reports showing payrolls jumped the most since January, wages beat estimates and consumer sentiment increased. Treasury yields were steady after climbing above 1.80%. Japan’s Topix index rose 0.4% as of 9:11 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.2%. Kospi index rose 0.2%. Hang Seng Index futures climbed 0.3% earlier. S&P 500 futures were little changed. The S&P 500 climbed 0.9% Friday.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.  

• ‘Quantitative Failure,’ Fed and ECB, China Export Slump: Eco Day   

• Goldman Lifts 2020 Oil Forecasts as OPEC Cuts Tighten Market.

• Saudi Stocks Up Most This Year on Aramco, Oil Outlook: Inside EM.  

• China Soy Imports Rise to 3-Month High as U.S. Cargoes Cleared.

• The Shock and Awe Era for Central Banks Is Over.

• Repo Blowup Was Fueled by Big Banks and Hedge Funds.

Wall Street Journal:

• Investors Bail on Stock Rally, Fleeing Funds in Droves.

• Trump vs. Schiff Is a Clash of One Titan.

• China’s Influencers Livestream Product Demos to Followers, Drive Web Advertising.

• Warren Goes After Buttigieg After Slipping in Polls.

• Saudis Probing If Florida Gunman Was Radicalized on Visit.

MarketWatch.com:

• Hong Kong takes to the streets in massive show of support for pro-democracy protest movement.

• Barron’s on MarketWatch: Small-cap stocks are breaking out, and here are 10 investments poised to score.

Fox News:

• Manhunt for missing Saudi students after deadly attack at US naval base; others detained: report.

• GOP senators called out by conservative author over Trump impeachment stand.

• Nunes blasts Schiff's release of his phone records in impeachment probe, mulling legal options.

CNBC:

• The future of the US wireless industry in limbo as T-Mobile and Sprint begin battle to win merger approval.

• Disney nears $10 billion global box office record and ‘Rise of Skywalker’ isn’t even out yet.

• What Trump does before trade deadline is the ‘wild card’ that will drive markets in the week ahead.

• CDC says no single brand is likely responsible for the outbreak of vaping lung disease.

Zero Hedge:            

• Chuck Todd Goes Nuclear After Ted Cruz Mentions 'Debunked' Ukraine Election Meddling.

• Trump's New Food-Stamp Rules In Illinois: If Not Now, When?

• US Military Bases On High Alert As FBI Hunts Missing Saudi Servicemen Linked To Pensacola Shooting.

• Hong Kong Protests Attract Massive Crowds, Estimated 800k March In Financial District.

• Tesla(TSLA) On Autopilot Slams Into Connecticut Police Cruiser On I-95.

• How California's Government Plans To Make Wildfires Even Worse.

• "Dotard" Trump Downplays North Korea Missile Test, Says Kim "Has Everything To Lose" If He Acts In Hostile Way.

• Nadler: Trump Will 'Rig' 2020 Election If He Isn't Impeached And Removed.

• "See You After Jail Guys": Art World Stunned After Man Eats $120,000 Banana Duct Taped To Wall.

• "Cash Strapped" Elon Musk Is Buying Up Entire Neighborhoods In Los Angeles.

• The David Einhorn Podcast: The Fed Is Monetizing Debt Again.

• Luongo: "Pelosi's Mask Just Slipped".

• How The Dems & The Fed Ensured Trump's Re-Election.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.0 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 37.75 -1.5 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.72 +.04%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.33%.

• S&P 500 futures -.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.18%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (THO)/1.24

After the Close:

• (CASY)/2.16

• (CHWY)/-.13

• (SFIX)/-.06

• (TOL)/1.30

• (MTN)/-2.99

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China CPI report, 3Y T-Note auction, Raymond James Tech Conference, Cowen Energy Conference, UBS Media/Telecom/Communications/Tech Conference and the (SLG) investor conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.

• Global Economy Week by Bloomberg. 

• The Week Ahead by Yahoo. (video)

• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.

• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on China trade deal hopes, fewer global growth concerns, oil gains, technical buying, seasonal strength and short-covering. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.