Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -5.3% Below 100-Day Average
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 58.6% of Issues Advancing, 38.8% Declining
• 151 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 63.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.8%
• Vix 12.6 -.08%
• Total Put/Call .74 -26.7%
• TRIN/Arms .88 -12.9%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 55.25 -1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 32.25 -.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  66.27 +.03%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.05%.

• S&P 500 futures -.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (ACN)/1.99
• (APOG)/.76
• (CAG)/.57
• (DRI)/1.07
• (RAD)/.15
• (SAFM)/-1.01

After the Close:

• (NKE)/.58
• (SCHL)/1.77
• (AIR)/.60

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Current Account Deficit for 3Q is estimated at -$122.0B versus -$128.2B in 2Q.
• The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for Dec. is estimated to fall to 8.0 versus 10.4 in Nov.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 225K versus 252K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1676K versus 1667K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Nov. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.1% decline in Oct.
• Existing Home Sales for Nov. is estimated to fall to 5.44M versus 5.46M in Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Inflation Data report, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for Dec., weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (MCK) sell-side analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly lower, weighed down by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Global Growth Optimism, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Technical Buying, Energy/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.3 unch.

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.41 -.22%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.45 +.16%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.31 -7.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 131.0 -1
  

• Total Put/Call 1.1 +69.2%

• NYSE Arms .72 -37.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 45.84 -.1%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 561.0 -2.98%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.80 +.71%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 158.75 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 55.53 -4.15%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 180.60 -.53%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.13 +.12%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 6.75 +1.0 basis points

• TED Spread 35.0 -.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.5 +1.5 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.26 -.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.55% unch.

• Yield Curve .26 +3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 90.91 USD/Metric Tonne -.64%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.70 +.2 basis point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.0 +5.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.5 +.8 basis point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.79 +3.0 basis points
• 7.1% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 16.9% chance of cut at April 29th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -29 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +47 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value Unch.

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders -1.4% 2) Papers -.6% 3) Restaurants -.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GBT, LII, TTC, NTLA, FDX and ALLK

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MO 2) FDX 3) AA 4) SPPI 5) CAG

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AKRX 2) ADRO 3) ALLK 4) DTEA 5) PZZA

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +1.8% 2) Gaming +1.1% 3) Road & Rail +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NLTX, SCS, TXG, DTIL, AXSM, PCG, VOYA, KPTI, COLM, CRNC, TRHC, YETI, NEO, PING, PINC, BBBY, CTAS, RARE, LDOS, TRWH, NEO, HIBB, HIIQ, FL, DDOG, M, WYNN, SUM, LLY, TDOC, MAC, CRWD, DVN, SBAC, NEWR, WORK, JWN, BIG and PD

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RTN 2) TRGP 3) CREE 4) MGM 5) HYG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DVN 2) LLY 3) SYRS 4) NFLX 5)NVDA

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +3.4% Above 100-Day Average
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 52.3% of Issues Advancing, 43.8% Declining
• 163 New 52-Week Highs, 12 New Lows
• 62.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.5%
• Vix 12.3 +.2%
• Total Put/Call .98 +50.8%
• TRIN/Arms .69 -40.5%