Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• Hong Kong Police Arrest at Least 14 Opposition Activists.

• Singapore Now Has Most Coronavirus Cases in Southeast Asia.  

• Virus Easing Allows Germany to Re-Open as Spain Deaths Slow.  

• India’s State Borrowers Are Crowding Out Cash-Strapped Companies.

• Mexico City Hospitals at Near Full Capacity as Virus Spreads.

• Germany to Order 45 Fighter Jets From Boeing, Report Says.

• U.S. Sees Small-Business Deal; Europe Deaths Slow: Virus Update.

• Sweden Says Controversial Covid-19 Strategy Is Proving Effective. U.S. Stock Futures Dip in Early Trade; Oil Drops. U.S. equity futures retreated in early trading Monday as investors looked toward a busy week for corporate earnings amid signs of an easing in the global coronavirus spread. Asian contracts were mixed, while oil continued to plumb fresh lows. S&P 500 futures were down about 0.7%, after the gauge closed almost 3% higher Friday. Japanese and Hong Kong contracts dipped, while those in Australia were little changed. Oil dropped to the lowest since November 2001 in New York. The dollar and Treasury futures were steady as New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said the state may be past the high point of coronavirus deaths, as cases and fatalities slowed. Fewer daily deaths were also reported in Italy, Spain and the U.K. Futures on the S&P 500 dipped 0.8% as of 7:39 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge rose 2.7% on Friday. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.2%. Hang Seng futures dipped 0.3% late Friday. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index were flat.

• Oil Drops to 18-Year Low on Global Demand Crunch, Storage Woes.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• In Defense of the Rally: Five Pros Who Say the New Bull Has Legs.

• Bond Traders Signal the Path to Reopening Will Be Long and Bumpy.

• Shake Shack, Potbelly Among Big Chains Tapping Small-Biz Funds.    

• Wynn Calls for Reopening of Nevada, Followed by Las Vegas Strip.

• U.S. Colleges Brace for a Devastating Summer and Fall.  

• A Legendary Oil Trader Hid $800 Million in Losses.  

• Some Crimes Are Spiking in America’s Major Cities.  

• Just How Big Is the Biggest-Ever Slump in World Oil Demand?

Wall Street Journal:   

• How to Keep Workers Healthy on the Job.

• The Democrats’ 2020 Coronavirus Hindsight.

• Coronavirus Testing Hampered by Disarray, Shortages, Backlogs.

• Bets Against Stock Market Hit Highest Level in Years.

• Europe Slowly Emerges From Lockdown.

• More Americans Fear Lifting Restrictions Too Soon, Poll Says.

• Governments Face Pressure to Ease Lockdowns.

• Baseball Without Fans Sounded Crazy. It Might Just Work.

• Big Tech’s Resilience to Downturn Faces First Test With Earnings Reports.

• Restaurants vs. Insurers Shapes Up as a Big Lobbying Fight.

MarketWatch.com:

• Earnings are set for their biggest dive since late 2009 — and it gets worse from here.

Fox News:

• Navarro says China hid virus from world, is hoarding PPE for profit.

• WATCH LIVE: Trump speaks as coronavirus task force holds briefing on nationwide battle.

• At least 10 dead in Canada shooting; gunman disguised self as officer.

CNBC:   

• Senate nears $370 billion deal for coronavirus small business loan programs.

• The coronavirus pandemic will likely leave a lasting legacy on retail: Fewer department stores.

• US and other foreign governments condemn Hong Kong arrests of democracy activists.

• Mnuchin, Pelosi ‘very close’ to deal on second round of small business loans.

• Life in quarantine: Online spending shifts from stockpiling to entertainment.

• Coronavirus updates: US death toll surpasses 40,000 as cases hit 750,000.

• How the coronavirus and retail closures are accelerating the rise of Amazon.

• 24 Hour Fitness weighs bankruptcy as coronavirus pushes fitness industry to brink.

Zero Hedge:    

• Kyle Bass Blasts China's "Most Lying, Coercive, Manipulative Government" For "Knowingly Infecting The World".

• Critics Slam Trump For Claiming China Should Face "Consequences" If It "Knowingly" Unleashed The Coronavirus.

• WHO Advisory Committee Member Retweets (Then Deletes) Michael Moore Clip Endorsing Anti-Trump Violence.

• Asian Oil Trading Legend Files For Bankruptcy After Hiding $800 Million In Losses, Secretly Selling Loan Collateral.

• US Coronavirus Death Toll Soars Past 40k Amid Flood Of Nursing-Home Deaths: Live Updates.

• Crowds Swarm Florida Beaches Amid Phased Reopening As Critics Slam "#FloridaMorons"

• 'Canada's Deadliest Attack In Years' - At Least 10 Killed In Roving Shooting Rampage Across Nova Scotia.

• "Just Snap A Photo" - De Blasio Explains How To Snitch On Fellow New Yorkers Breaking Social Distancing Rules.

• Japan Proves Again Just How Laughable The Idea That Central Banks Can Support Markets Is.

• Young COVID-Positive Redditors Describe Agony Of Ongoing Symptoms Nearly Two Months After Getting Sick.

• WTI Crashes To 19 Year Low As Trading Reopens; S&P Futures Slide.

• Morgan Stanley: Rushing To Reopen The Economy Would Backfire.

• "The Default Cycle Has Officially Started".

• Spamalot, No More? Hormel Shutters Illinois Plant Amid COVID-19 Fears.

• One Year Later, Cause Of Notre Dame Fire Remains A Mystery.

• Los Angeles County Suffers Deadliest Day Yet As COVID-19 Kills 81: Live Updates.

• The Destructive Force Of Bank Credit.

• Goldman Now Sees A 123% Plunge In Q2 S&P Earnings, $850BN Drop In Corporate Cash Spending.

• Shocking Report Shows Half The Homeless At Boston Shelter Tested Positive For COVID-19: And None Had Symptoms.

Business Insider:

• 7 tactics experts say retailers will use to manage excess inventory and attempt to stay afloat during the coronavirus.

• Canada is making face coverings compulsory on all flights — another sign that masks are becoming an unavoidable part of life.

• Coronavirus is upending the real estate industry. From job cuts to new opportunities, here's everything you need to know.

• Employees across the globe are working remotely because of the coronavirus pandemic. Here are 18 high-paying jobs you can do from home.

• Amazon is installing thermal cameras at warehouses to scan employees for fevers.

John Hopkins University:

• Coronavirus Global Cases. (map)

BNO News:

• Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline.

Google Docs:

• Coronavirus Testing by State.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.75 +2.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 44.25 +3.25 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.42 -.06%.

• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.8%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.75%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (ALLY)/.79

• (CCL)/-1.63

• (HAL)/.24

• (MTB)/2.51

• (ONB)/.27

• (TFC)/.68

After the Close:

• (BXS)/.35

• (CDNS)/.54

• (EFX)/1.28

• (IBM)/1.74

• (MINI)/.42

• (NVR)/45.61

• (PNFP)/1.05

• (STLD)/.86

• (ZION)/.86

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March is estimated to fall to -1.81 versus .16 in Feb.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PPI report and the (BHP) operational review could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by energy and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.

• Global Economy Week by Bloomberg. 

• The Week Ahead by Yahoo. (video)

• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.

• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on coronavirus fears, earnings jitters, technical selling, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, global recession worries and oil weakness. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving bearish signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• Trump Suggests China May Be ‘Knowingly Responsible’ for Virus. 

• Milan’s Alarming Virus Trend Threatens Plan to Restart Italy.    

• Spain to Join Italy in Extending National Lockdown Into May

• German New Virus Infections Rise by the Most in Seven Days.  

• Spanish Virus Deaths Pass 20,000 as Countries Ease Lockdowns.

• U.K. Deaths Top 800 for Third Day; Spain at 20,000: Virus Update.  

• California Not Close to Easing Measures; L.A. Deaths Hit Record  

• Fearful Bankers Spurn Asia Commodity Traders in Credit Squeeze.

• A Month of Lockdowns on Main Street and Aid Already Ran Out

• A Wild Ride for Global Supply Chains Captured in Seven Charts.

• What Returning to Work Will Look Like in Offices, Cafes and Factories Around the World.

• Nothing Is Certain But Bailouts: How Stimulus Works in a Vacuum.  

• Saudis Set to Sell 600,000 Barrels a Day of Oil to U.S. in April.   

• Moody’s May Cut $22 Billlion of CLO Bonds on Pandemic Losses

Wall Street Journal:

• Paul O’Neill, Former Treasury Secretary and Alcoa CEO, Dies.

• U.S. Buys Pricey Masks From Unproven Vendors.

• Stocks and the Economy Send Very Different Messages.

• Michigan’s Draconian Lockdown Provokes a Backlash.

• Surge in Coronavirus Costs Spurs Washington to Seek Relief.

• U.S. Pays High Prices for Masks From Unproven Vendors.

• Trump Says Testing Will Expand, Pressures States to Ease Lockdowns.

• Calpers Unwound Hedges Just Before March’s Epic Stock Selloff.

• Young Americans, Still Catching Up From the Last Recession, Now Face a New One.

CNBC:

• Coronavirus live updates: Gucci plans to reopen one of its Italian sites, Britain mulls new financial aid.

• The stock market is rising on hope for a pharma solution to coronavirus — here’s how close we are.

• Walmart will require all associates to wear masks or other face coverings at work.

• Today’s pandemic shows us the promise of the Internet of Medical Everything.

• The Covid-19 response must balance civil liberties and public health — experts explain how.

• Trump says US farmers will receive $19 billion for coronavirus mitigation.

• Macy’s reportedly looking to use real estate to come up with cash during coronavirus pandemic.

• California Gov. Gavin Newsom says tech companies are key to lifting coronavirus restrictions.

• Renaissance hedge fund reportedly having one of its best years ever.

• Demand for rural homes shows ‘profound, psychological change’ amid coronavirus, Redfin CEO says.

• Nearly 3 million borrowers have been granted mortgage relief, and the industry is crying for help.

• California governor names Steyer, Yellen and tech CEOs to business recovery task force.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (TDOC), (LVGO), (MASI), (IRTC), (GS), (MS), (JPM), (BAC), (RTX), (OTIS), (CARR), (MRK), (AZN) and (BMY).

MarketWatch.com:  

• Coronavirus Ushered in Medicine’s Digital Revolution.

Fox News:

• Top coronavirus model significantly lowers US death toll estimate amid protests over tough lockdowns.

• Hundreds flock to Jacksonville beaches as Florida begins opening up.

• GOP lawmakers intro bill to allow Americans to sue China for COVID.

• De Blasio urges NYers to report social distancing violations, text in photos.

Zero Hedge:            

• Did Xi Jinping Deliberately Sicken The World?

• The Timeline Of WHO's Cover-Up Exposed.

• Shocking Reports Claim 1000s Perished Uncounted In NY, UK Nursing Homes; Spanish Death Toll Tops 20k: Live Updates.

• Wuhan Reopening Spells Trouble For A World Emerging From Lockdown.

• COVID-19 Could Change Travel Behavior Forever... Putting 3 Million b/d Oil Demand At Risk.

• China Emerges As A Major Obstacle In Japan's Quest To Triple Stockpile Of Abe's "Miracle" COVID-19 Drug.

• The Government Shows Little Respect For Our Tax Dollar.

• Retail Sales Were Bad; The Reality Is Catastrophic.

• "Under Siege" - Social Unrest Unfolds As Frustrated Americans Demand Reopening Of Economy.

• Insolvent Illinois Begs Congress For Pension Bailout.

• Getting Out Of Dodge: After Exiting Loans And Hiking Mortgage Standards, JPMorgan Stops Accepting HELOCs.

• Beijing Arrests Hong Kong Media Tycoon & 14 Activists In Sweeping Pro-Democracy Crackdown.

• Spain "Authorizes" Military Planes To Spray Disinfectants Over Cities.

• Is The Russia-Saudi Oil-Price War A Fraud And A Farce?

• These 10 Colleges Are Receiving The Most Federal Bailout Money.

• FBI Says Foreign States Hacked US Research Centers Seeking COVID-19 Breakthroughs.

• Oil Stored At Sea Hits A Record 160 Million Barrels, Doubling In Two Weeks.

• US Launches 'Full-Scale Investigation' Into Wuhan Lab.

• COVID-19 Is A Man-Made Virus: HIV-Discoverer Says "Could Only Have Been Created In A Lab".

• Rural Communities Are Not Safe From COVID-19, Researchers Warn.

• New Study Shows US Coronavirus Infections "50- To 80-Fold Higher" Than Believed.

• WHO Wants To Separate Families... "In A Safe And Dignified Manner".

• No "Buy American" This Time: Munger Warns Berkshire "Will Shutter Some Businesses".

• Mexico Downgraded To Baa1 By Moody's; "Negative Outlook" Means Junking Imminent.

• Trump Slams Cuomo: "Spend Less Time Complaining And More Time Doing".

• Will Amazon Kill Small Business?

• Crude Crashes As Mega-Techs Soar Amid Record Surge In Deaths, Unemployment. 

Business Insider:

• These 5 jarring economic signals flashed red this past week — and they show just how quickly a recession is descending upon America.

• Courts and government meetings have fallen into chaos after moving hearings to Zoom and getting swarmed with nudity and offensive remarks.

• Amazon reportedly tried to shut down a virtual event for workers to speak out about the company's coronavirus response by deleting employees' calendar invites.

• One chart shows how many Americans are dying from the coronavirus each week compared with other common causes of death like heart disease, cancer, and the flu.

• Leaked audio reveals that crew members on Cunard Line's MS Queen Victoria cruise ship off the coast of England have been asked to quarantine in their rooms because of COVID-19 cases on board.

• YogaWorks is permanently closing all New York City studios as the coronavirus outbreak wreaks havoc on the US fitness industry.

John Hopkins University:

• Coronavirus Global Cases. (map)

BNO News:

• Tracking Coronavirus: Map, data and timeline. 

Google Docs:

• Coronavirus Testing by State.