Monday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.75 -.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 42.75 -1.0 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.05 -.07%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.30%.
• S&P 500 futures +.05%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.30%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (CLX)/1.85
• (SNA)/.36
• (DISH)/.57
• (EME)/.91
• (GPN)/1.20
• (CLI)/.30
• (MCK)/2.36
• (TSN)/.90
  

After the Close:

• (AIG)/.53
• (CHGG)/.32
• (CRUS)/.30
• (DLB)/.27
• (H)/-1.41
• (IR)/.20
• (ITRI)/-.20
• (KLAC)/2.43
• (MOS)/-.01
• (RMBS)/.25
• (RNG)/.20
• (SBAC)/1.84
• (STE)/.98
• (TTWO)/1.60
• (THC)/-.71
• (TXRH)/-.62
• (TREX)/.65
• (VNO)/.91
• (WMB)/.24
  

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• ISM Manufacturing for July is estimated to rise to 53.6 versus 52.6 in June.
• ISM New Orders for July is estimated to fall to 55.2 versus 56.4 in June.
• ISM Prices Paid for July is estimated to rise to 52.0 versus 51.3 in June.
• Construction Spending MoM for June is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -2.1% decline prior.
  

Afternoon

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for July is estimated to rise to 14.0M versus 13.05M in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• Global Economy Week by Bloomberg. 
• The Week Ahead by Yahoo. (video)
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as global recession fears, coronavirus second wave worries and earnings jitters offset short-covering, technical buying and global stimulus hopes. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving bearish signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• WHO Sees Lengthy Pandemic; U.S. Deaths Top 1,000: Virus Update.
• Japan Acted Like the Virus Had Gone. Now It’s Spread Everywhere.
• China’s Influx of Foreign Oil Slows Sharply in Tanker Movements.
• Macau’s Gaming Revenue Falls 94.5% as Visa Ban Thwarts Recovery.
• Australia’s Victoria Set to Tighten Lockdown as Virus Spreads.
• Summertime Sadness: Resurgent Virus Dims Crisis Recovery Hopes.
• The World’s Wealthiest Family Gets $1 Billion Richer Every Two Weeks.
• NYC’s Wealthiest Flocking to Florida Even While Covid Rages.
• Trump Suggests He Might Want to Take On Income Inequality.
• Apple Purges More Than 30,000 Apps From Its China Store.
• Coin Shortages Are Causing a Liquidity Crisis at Laundromats.
• Americans Aren’t Making Babies, and That’s Bad for the Economy.
• The Covid Bankruptcies: California Pizza to Prom-Dress Retailer.
• Bulls Find Just Enough to Like in Decade’s Worst Earnings.

Wall Street Journal:

• Read Joe Biden’s Lips: New Taxes.
• An Actual Playing Field Shouldn’t Be a Political One.
• The Small-Business Survival Guide.
• Facial Recognition’s Next Big Play: the Sports Stadium.
• When the CEO Is in the Office—and Everyone Else Is Working From Home.

CNBC:

• Apple surpasses Saudi Aramco to become world’s most valuable company.
• Congressional Democrats and the White House are still at an impasse over coronavirus bill.
• Big Tech spends over $20 million on lobbying in first half of 2020, including on coronavirus bills.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (AN), (GPI), (OSTK), (CWH)(KMX), (NEM), (GOLD).
• Had bearish commentary on (TRUP).

MarketWatch.com:

• Why August in a pandemic is a time for vigilance for stock market investors.
• Microsoft and Bytedance put TikTok talks on hold after Trump signals opposition.
• Opinion: Big Tech stocks are on the cusp of creating a setback for indexes.

Fox News:

• 'Only certain to get worse': Police group sounds alarm, survey shows widespread police budget cuts.
• Boston Marathon bomber's death sentence vacated by federal court NBA player stands as teammates kneel for the national anthem.
• App releases video after Trump floats ban over security fears.
  

Zero Hedge:

• Red Flags Soar As Big Pharma Will Be Exempt From COVID-19 Vaccine Liability Claims.
• "Peaceful Riots"? Journalism Bows To The Woke Mob.
• California COVID-19 Cases Top 500,000 As Global Total Nears 18 Million: Live Updates.
• Communism Secured: Musk Calls Chinese "Smart, Hard-Working", Says Americans Are "Entitled, Complacent".
• ByteDance, Microsoft Break Off TikTok Deal Talks .
• JPMorgan Finds That Shorts Across The Globe Have Capitulated.
• Amazon, Jeff Bezos, And The Influential Washington Post.
• Portland's 'Peaceful' Protesters Burn Bibles, American Flags And Pig's Head After Feds Withdraw.
• Memo From Insiders: Dear Bagholders, Thanks For Buying Our Shares At The Top.
• English Ignore Social Distancing Pleas And Pack Beaches On Hottest Day Of Summer.
• Hurricane Isaias Barrels Towards Virus-Infected South Florida .
• Ford Uses Robot Dogs To Map Plant, Human Surveyors No Longer Needed.
• The Dual Mandate Of The Fed "Appears To Be The S&P 500 And Nasdaq".
  
• Here Are The Top Highlights From Ghislaine Maxwell's Unsealed Court Records.
• When Corporate Power Is Your Real Government, Corporate Media Is State Media.
• Seattle Moves To Replace 'Racist' Police With 'Trauma-Informed, Gender-Affirming, Anti-Racist' Organizations.
• Ficth Revises United States Credit Outlook To "Negative".
• Hundreds Of Angry Protesters Gather Outside Hamptons Billionaire Mansions To Demand Wealth Tax.
• 17 Year Old Tampa Teen Among 3 People Charged With 30 Counts For Recent Twitter Hack.
• Gordon Johnson: These Are The Tesla Numbers Journalists Need To Pay Attention To.
• Store Brands Which Require Immediate Cancellation.
• Vermont Profs, Students "Demand" Full "Abolition" Of Campus Police, BLM Flag To Be Flown.
• Texas COVID-19 Deaths Climb To New Highs As NJ Enters "Dangerous Territory": Live Updates.
• Mission Accomplished: Fed Officially Blows The Biggest Ever Bubble.

Business Insider:

• EXCLUSIVE: A decade-old settlement shows a top aide to Kamala Harris mysteriously left her California AG's office with a $35,000 taxpayer-funded settlement check.
• SCOTT GALLOWAY: This may be the beginning of the end of Big Tech. We shouldn't see it as a punishment, but a restoration of balance.
• Kamala Harris is reportedly losing favorite status in the tumultuous Biden veepstakes. Here's why.
• Joe Biden's vice presidential contender Rep. Karen Bass praised Scientology at a 2010 ceremony.

The Epoch Times:

• Beijing Trying to ‘Remake Hong Kong in Its Image’ With City Election Delay: Rubio.
• Report Finds 250 US Collaborators with Chinese Military-Tied Researchers, Says Threatens National Security.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on Coronavirus 2nd Wave Worries, Global Recession Fears, Technical Selling, Biotech/Transport Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.2 +5.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.42 +.63%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.3 +1.6%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 64.9 +9.5%

• ISE Sentiment Index 69 .0 -77.0 points

• Total Put/Call .80 +5.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.21 -28.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.77 +1.34%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 851.59 -1.3%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.25 +.18%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 150.75 +.75 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  73.07 -1.35%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 191.25 -.16%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 176.91 +.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.25 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 17.5 -.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -.75 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  87.25 -3.5 basis points
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 67.25 +.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.13 -.38%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.

• Yield Curve 41.0 -3.25 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.90 USD/Metric Tonne -.04%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 246.8 -.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 166.30 +37.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.1 +5.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.55 +3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +98 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -211 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -91 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -2.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gaming -5.2% 2) Oil Service -3.8% 3) Airlines -3.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BZH, CPT, CROX, HCAC, BAND, LRN, DSPG, CAT, ONEM, POWI, GOOG, EXAS, SYK, DVA, CRS, GILD, HTH, CVX, SGEN, LTC, XLNX, SDGR, BTAI, KRA, EXPE, AIMT, MITK, FORM, NWL, FIZZ, FLS, CHEF, ZEN, UAA, BEAT, NATI, NTUS, SHAK, SKYW, WRTC, XPO, SPAQ, PRO, HRC, BLNK and KODK
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) PTEN 2) EWH 3) F 4) EFA 5) GILD
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RFP 2) PRO 3) CVX 4) FCAU  5) PBI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.4% 2) Internet +.6% 3) Computer Hardware +.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PINS, NXGN, EBS, SEM, DLX, BRKS, FB, ATUS, SC, BNFT, AAPL, TWOU, TENB, VCYT, BERY and CHD
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EXPE 2) COOP 3) EGHT 4) KODK 5) MARK

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PINS 2) JCI 3) AAPL 4) PEG 5) CHTR

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume