Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on US Economic Data, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Transport/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.9 -1.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.75 -.13%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.18 +.9%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.81 +.07%

• ISE Sentiment Index 88.0 -2.0 points

• Total Put/Call .70 +2.94%

• NYSE Arms .87 -28.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.74 +1.36%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 764.41 +1.09%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.51 +2.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 141.5 +.25 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  65.61 +.87%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 189.90 +.61%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 176.98 +.06%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 18.75 +3.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.25 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  87.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.75 +.25 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.33 -.15%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.

• Yield Curve 54.5 +4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 117.22 USD/Metric Tonne +1.17%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 253.3 +3.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 203.40 -3.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.1 -3.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 -3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -139 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -99 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -13 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.6% 2) Alt Energy -1.2% 3) Networking -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PSTG, RETA, BEAM, MCRB, AZPN, SDGR, RDUS, SRNE, IIVI, DKNG, SWTX, MYGN, PRPL, FLGT, PTGX, EVH, BTAI, NOVA, MDP and CODX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AR 2) WHR 3) AMAT 4) DVY 5) M
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MDP 2) IQ 3) GSX 4) KODK  5) PASG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +1.4% 2) Banks +1.1% 3) I-Banks +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DDS, NVAX, MITK, SHLL, CNXM, ADVM, EXPI, JWN, OMER and AMAT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AMAT 2) VIAC 3) WBC 4) KR 5) CRBP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NVAX 2) FTCH 3) M 4) QGEN 5) AMAT

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -42.6% Below 100-Day Average
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 51.3% of Issues Advancing, 44.9% Declining
• 22 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 48.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.6%
• Vix 22.4 +1.3%
• Total Put/Call .63 -7.4%
• TRIN/Arms .77 -36.4%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• Japan’s Economy Set to Crater by a Record in Awful Quarter.  
• Borrowing to Buy Stocks Pushes Up China’s Record Household Debt.
• Asian Stocks See Muted Start; Treasuries Steady. Asian stocks saw a muted start to trading Friday after a lackluster U.S. session as investors mulled the stalemate in stimulus negotiations and parsed signs of an economic recovery. Treasury yields steadied near an eight-week high. Stocks slipped in Japan and South Korea, and ticked higher in Australia. S&P 500 futures ticked higher, following a dip in the benchmark a day after it surpassed an all-time closing high, with energy, real estate and industrial sectors leading the drop. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed in positive territory. Trading volume was about 20% below the 30-day average. Gold resumed its advance. The dollar was steady. Elsewhere, oil pared losses as investors assessed the International Energy Agency’s reduced forecasts for global oil demand in part due to a slowdown in air travel. S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo. The S&P 500 fell 0.2% Thursday. Japan’s Topix Index fell 0.2%. Kospi Index fell 0.7%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 futures rose 0.1%.
• Oil Drops With IEA Demand Outlook Pointing to Weakness Ahead.
• Growth ‘V’? Yes, Record China Debt, Japan to Crater: Eco Day.
• Covid-19 Shaping Up to Be Battle for Years Even With Vaccine. 
  
• CDC Chief Sees Urgency to Cut Covid Rate to Avoid Flu Collision.  
• Minneapolis’s Plan to Disband the Police Fails Its First Test.
• Chinese Streaming Service Iqiyi Tumbles After Disclosing SEC Probe of Records.  
• U.S. Mortgage Rates Rise From a Record Low With 30-Year at 2.96%.

Wall Street Journal:

• A Deadly Coronavirus Was Inevitable. Why Was No One Ready?
• Justice Goes to Yale.
• Israel, U.A.E. Agree to Establish Formal Diplomatic Ties.
• Why Chinese Startups Still Flock to the U.S. for IPOs.
• New EPA Rules Could Raise Bar for Climate-Change Regulations.
• Company Fined for Importing Sweetener U.S. Says Was Made With Chinese Prison Labor.
  

Fox News:

• Trump rips Biden's mask mandate, accuses him of politicizing COVID, not trusting the American people.
  

CNBC.com:

• California court rules Amazon can be liable for defective goods sold on its marketplace.
• Coronavirus stimulus stalemate could drag on for weeks as Congress leaves town.
• Robinhood is raking in record cash on customer trades — without charging.
• Michael Rubin’s Fanatics now valued at $6.2 billion after latest Series E funding round.
• S&P 500 closes lower as run to record high falls short again.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after-hours: Applied Materials, Baidu & more.

MarketWatch.com:       

• Judges end California’s statewide moratorium, landlords could seek evictions in a couple of weeks.
• CDC director warns U.S. facing worst autumn ever in terms of public health.
• The stock market hasn’t seen a 100-day gain this strong since 1933.

Zero Hedge:

• Trump Admin Designates Confucius Institute As Communist China Foreign Mission.
• CentCom Says Iran Is 'Top Priority' As Sabotaged Natanz Facility Set To Boost Nuclear Fuel Production.
• Dr. Fauci Confirms "No Reason We Can't Have In-Person Voting": Live Updates.
• DoJ Finds Yale Admissions Illegally Discriminated Against Whites, Asians.
• Fake ID Seizures, Mostly From China, On the Rise.
• Does Anyone Else Find This Ironic?
• "Apple Has Become What It Once Railed Against": Fortnite Maker Epic Games Sues Over App Store Ban.
• Chicago Rioters Attacked Charity Building With Sick Children Inside.
• Bonds & Stocks Battered After Bombed Auction, Silver Soars.
  

Business Insider:   

• Apple just kicked 'Fortnite' off the App Store and the company behind the game fired back with a scathing video that roasts the iPhone-maker's most iconic ad.
• Google just booted 'Fortnite' from the Play Store, hours after Apple banned it from the iPhone and iPad App Store.

The Epoch Times:

• China Hit With 85 Percent Price Increase on Pork.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75%  to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.25 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 40.0 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.39 -.04%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.23%.

• S&P 500 futures +.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for July is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a +7.5% gain in June.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for July is estimated to rise +1.3% versus a +7.3% gain in June.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for July is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +6.7% gain in June.
• Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity for 2Q is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a -.9% decline in 1Q.
• Preliminary 2Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise +6.9% versus a +5.1% gain in 1Q.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for July is estimated to rise +3.0% versus a +5.4% gain in June.
• Capacity Utilization for July is estimated to rise to 70.3% versus 68.6% in June.
• Manufacturing Production for July is estimated to rise +3.0% versus a +7.2% gain in June.

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for June is estimated to fall -1.1% versus a -2.3% decline in May.
• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for August is estimated to fall to 71.9 versus 72.5 in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone GDP report and Bloomberg US Economic Survey for August could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Global Coronavirus Worries, Oil Decline, Technical Selling, Energy/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.78 -2.24%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.02 +.35%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.17 -.62%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.5 -3.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 99 .0 +1.0 point

• Total Put/Call .60 -21.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.04 -24.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.93 +.83%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 754.85 -.07%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.82 +3.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 141.25 +.5 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  65.05 -1.25%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 186.78 +1.70%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 176.87 -.15%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.0 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 15.75 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .75 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  83.0 -1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.5 +.75 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.44 +.26%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 50.5 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.74 USD/Metric Tonne -.83%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 250.3 +1.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 206.50 -2.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.9 +.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.69 +3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -24 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -72 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -56 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer staple/tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long