Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.0 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 29.75 unch..

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.26 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,520.0 +49.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.71 +.36%
• FTSE 100 futures +.14%.

• S&P 500 futures +.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CPB)/.91
• (UNFI)/.71
• (VRA)/.24
  

After the Close:

• (ADBE)/2.66
• (OXM)/-1.07
• (RH)/5.17
• (VRNT)/.79
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST:

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Oct.
• JOLTS Job Openings for Oct. is estimated to fall to 6300 versus 6436 in Sept.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -849,250 barrels versus a -679,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,977,000 barrels versus a +3,491,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +789,270 barrels versus a +3,238,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.5% versus a -.5% decline prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Trade Data report, $38B 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Barclays Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, (SBUX) investor day, (A) investor meeting and the (LOW) investor update could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Modestly Higher into Afternoon on Vaccine Hopes, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Energy/Biotech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.9 -1.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,460.0 -2.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.60 +.12%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.3 -.6%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.1 -1.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 +19.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .60 -7.7%

• NYSE Arms 1.07 -18.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.07 +.53%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 602.63 -.54%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.40 -2.19%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 120.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.75 +.93%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 161.36 -.46%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 182.08 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.0 -.5 basis point

• TED Spread 15.5 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -27.5 -4.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.75 +1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.26 +.18%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 79.0 -1.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 143.40 USD/Metric Tonne -1.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 67.70 -2.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 141.3 +2.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 61.40 -.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.90 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +73 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -4 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/biotech/consumer staple/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -3.5% 2) Airlines -.9% 3) Banks -.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PRG, LGIH, HQY, HCAC, CASY, FIII, HEAR, TEN, LGVW, THO, GRWG, STTK, ZI, COUP, NLS, RIOT, SPWH, STRO, STPK, AAN, AZO, ADS, EOSE, KODK, RCKT, GIK, MGNI, HRB, TOL, MRNS, SI, MSTR, PEN, CIIC, AGIO, ARCT and CONN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SFIX 2) PEN 3) EWJ 4) CLNY 5) TOL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MSTR 2) DADA 3) COTY 4) LAZR 5) SNX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +2.6% 2) Steel +1.9% 3) Oil Service +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• IGMS, SFIX, LQDT, GOGO, CMD, JW/A, SMAR, FSLY, PLUG, SYRS, SUMO, QS, X, FEAC, VLDR, FATE, MITK, BKE, EFX, RXT, SNOW, FMTX, CMBM, CVM, ZNTL, EDIT, CPE, AXTI, PLMR, WMG and BFT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SMAR 2) COUP 3) SFIX 4) TOL 5) MAT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LXRX 2) SFIX 3) SMAR 4) TEDU 5) EFX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +3.8% Above 100-Day Average
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 54.2% of Issues Advancing, 42.6% Declining
• 166 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
• 85.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,422.0 -40.0 points
• Vix 21.4 +.4%
• Total Put/Call .56 -13.9%
• TRIN/Arms .75 -42.8%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• China’s Financial Markets Are Starting to Price In Deleveraging.
• All Eyes on U.K. for Western World’s First Covid Vaccinations.  
• Bank-Driven Squeeze in Funding Markets Emerges as Stocks Rise.  
• Investors Get Blindsided by Vanishing Odds of Brexit Deal.
• Asian Stocks Slip on U.S. Retreat; Oil Declines: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Edges Lower With Virus Surge Tempering Vaccine Optimism.  
• China Bucks Trend, New Japan Stimulus, WEF to Singapore: Eco Day.
• U.S. Covid Deaths Match April Peak With Hospitals Still Filling.  
• Outages at Interactive Brokers, Robinhood Leave Stock Traders Furious.  
• Toll Brothers’ Home Orders Soar in Rally for Luxury Sales.
• Money Managers’ Record-Low Fees Are About to Sink Even Lower.

Wall Street Journal:

• Hospitals Race to Assess Who Gets Virus Vaccine First.
• Covid and the New Age of Censorship.
• Defense Is on the Ballot in Georgia.
• From Pilot to Truck Driver—Covid Grounds Airline Careers.
• China Exports Generate Record Trade Surplus.
• Small Hedge Funds Reap Big Gains in Tough Times.
• Companies Face New Pressures to Diversify Boards.

Fox News:

• EXCLUSIVE: Trump to sign order prioritizing Americans for COVID vaccine.
  

CNBC.com:

• Vaccine is creating early 2000s-type market euphoria: Investor Peter Boockvar.
• Cramer’s lightning round: Domino’s Pizza is a very good stock.
• Jim Cramer recommends buy price for DoorDash public debut, says investors ‘can’t chase’ the stock.

MarketWatch.com:           

• Stitch Fix stock soars after earnings surprise, new CFO from Amazon announced.  
• ‘Smart money’ index hits one-year low, as stock market trades near records.

Zero Hedge:

• The Federalist Destroys Attempted Debunking Of Late-Night Ballot Malarkey In Georgia.
• "It's Panic Porn Clickbait" - Media Scare-Stories About Hospitals Are Misleading.
• Bank Of Japan Is Now The Biggest Owner Of Japanese Stocks With $434 Billion Portfolio.
• Trump NSA O'Brien Sounds Off On China: They Could Have Absolutely Done More On Coronavirus.
• Ahead Of Trump Vaccine EO, Pfizer & Moderna Claim Inability To Supply Further Doses Until Mid-2021.
• Virginia County Rebels Against Gov. Northam's Lockdown Restrictions - Declares Itself "First Amendment Sanctuary".
• Consumer Credit Misses Badly As Americans Unexpectedly Pay Down Credit Card Debt In October.
• "Don't Need Congress - Just Flick Of Pen": Schumer Demands Day 1 Biden $50K Student Debt Cancelation.
• The BIS Issues A Dire Warning: "We Are Moving From The Liquidity To The Solvency Phase Of The Crisis".
• Sidney Powell To Appeal Dismissal Of Georgia Lawsuit.
• "More Dangerous Than You Think" - Global Stock Market Cap Tops $100 Trillion For First Time Ever.
• Moderna, Pfizer CEOs Skip White House COVID Vaccine Summit After Leaking Data To Biden.
• China Spreading Misinformation About COVID's Origins As WHO Investigation Lingers.
• DNI Ratcliffe Says Election 'Issues' Must Be Resolved Before Winner Declared.
• COVID Is Toppling America's "Points Of Failure" Dominoes.
• Bonds & Bullion Bid As Stocks Skid On Stimulus/Vaccine Stumble.

Newsmax:

• Arizona High Court to Hear GOP-Led Suit Alleging Mail-In Ballot Defects.
• Cruz Offering to Argue Pa. Election Lawsuit Before US Supreme Court.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING HUGE: Major National Security Issue Identified Related to China’s Connection to Dominion Voting Machines. 
• Arizona Supreme Court Agrees to Hear Election Challenge After Investigation of 100-Ballot Sample Finds 3% of the Ballots Were Deemed Fraudulent in Favor of Biden.

The Epoch Times:

• China Developing ‘Super Soldiers’ Through Gene-Editing Tech.

The Atlantic:

• The End of the Filibuster—No, Really. Many activists will not tolerate a Democratic-controlled Senate that allows Republicans to block legislation next year.

Politico:

• AOC Lays Out Progressive Wish List for Biden.

Glenn Beck:

• Elizabeth Warren’s ‘progressive wish list’ will destroy America. (video)

Daily Caller:

• Trump Urges Supporters Not To Boycott Georgia Senate Elections. President Donald Trump urged his supporters not to boycott the upcoming runoff Senate elections in Georgia on Friday, saying a boycott would be “playing right into the hands” of Democrats.
  

NTD News:

• "A lot of people, friends of mine, say, let's not vote... But if you do that, the radical left wins. ... You're angry because so many votes were stolen, it was taken away...If you don't vote, the socialists and the communists win"—Trump rallies for Perdue and Loeffler. (video) 

ProtectTheVote.com: 

• Serious allegations of misconduct in the 2020 elections have resulted in unprecedented legal action to ensure our elections are -- and remain -- free and fair. Find out where we’re exposing fraud and how you can help.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.75 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 29.75 +.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.15 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,493.0 -91.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.55 +1.18%
• FTSE 100 futures -.44%.

• S&P 500 futures -.24%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.20%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AZO)/14.84
• (BF/B)/.51
• (GIII)/.76
• (HRB)/-.95
• (JW/A)/.64
• (THO)/1.57
  

After the Close:

• (AVAV)/.31
• (CHWY)/-.13
• (GME)/-.85
• (MDB)/-.44

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST:

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 102.5 versus 104.0.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China inflation data, Eurozone GDP report, $56B 3Y T-Note auction, US weekly retail sales reports, (HRB) investor day, (NEM) investor update, (ENB) investor conference, Citi Consumer Conference, Goldman Financial Services Conference and the (ANDE) investor day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.