Wednesday, December 16, 2020

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Software +1.5% 2) Shipping +.9% 3) I-Banks +.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • FUBO, RIOT, CSTL, LAZR, UNFI, SIBN, HCAC, SPRO, PTGX, STRL, MP, DT, AKTS, COGT, DOMO, MSTR, CERE, EBS, CMG and VLDR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) IGV 2) UNFI 3) ISEE 4) DS 5) BMRN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LAZR 2) CMG 3) NTAP 4) SWK 5) LLY
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running -14.0% Below 100-Day Average
  • 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
  • 44.1% of Issues Advancing, 55.1% Declining
  • 148 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
  • 86.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 55.1% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,324.0 +93.0 points
  • Vix 23.1 +.8%
  • Total Put/Call .72 -21.7%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.36 +109.2%

Tuesday, December 15, 2020

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch.com:        
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:

@kylenabecker: 

TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
Politico:
Daily Caller:
NTD News:
ProtectTheVote.com: 
HereIsTheEvidence.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.25 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 28.0 -1.0 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.45 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,280.0 +48.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.95 -.1%
  • FTSE 100 futures +.28%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.15%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  •  (TTC)/.52
After the Close:
  • (ABM)/.70
  • (MLHR)/.57
  • (LEN)/2.06
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST:
  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for Nov. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a +.3% gain in Oct. 
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in Oct.
  • Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas for Nov. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in Oct.
9:45 pm EST
  • Markit US Manufacturing PMI for Dec. is estimated to fall to 55.8 versus 56.7 in Nov.
  • Markit US Services PMI for Dec. is estimated to fall to 55.9 versus 58.4 in Nov.
10:00 am EST
  • Business Inventories for Oct. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.7% gain in Sept.
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for Dec. is estimated to fall to 88.0 versus 90.0 in Nov.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,088,200 barrels versus a +15,189,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,822,300 barrels versus a +4,221,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +1,207,900 barrels versus a +5,222,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.47% versus a +1.7% gain prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds rate at  0.0-.25%.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The FOMC press conference, UK core inflation report and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Vaccine Optimism, Oil Gain, Commodity/Financial Sector Strength

 

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.1 -6.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,221.0 +103.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.46 -.23%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.3 +.5%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.1 -1.7%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 139.0 +33.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .88 +10.0%
  • NYSE Arms .80 -67.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.80 -2.53%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 581.49 -.62%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.62 -4.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 113.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.10 -.46%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 161.40 -1.34%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 182.29 +.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.0 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.0 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.75 +1.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.5 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.46 +.27%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% unch.
  • Yield Curve 77.0 -1.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 154.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.76%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 77.50 +1.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 137.4 -.9 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 68.0 +.9 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.91 +3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +103 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +90 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +29 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/tech/industrial/consumer staple sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Monday, December 14, 2020

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Wall Street Journal:
NY Post: 
CNBC.com
MarketWatch.com:            
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:

@kylenabecker:

TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
WION:
Politico:
Daily Caller:
NTD News:
ProtectTheVote.com: 
HereIsTheEvidence.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.25 unch..
  • China Sovereign CDS 29.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.31 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,166.0 +47.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.05 -.29%
  • FTSE 100 futures -.40%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.24%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  •  None of note
After the Close:
  • (AOUT)/.15
  • (NDSN)/1.53
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST:
  • The Empire Manufacturing Index for Dec. is estimated to rise to 6.5 versus 6.3 in Nov.
  • The Import Price Index MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.1% decline in Oct.
  • The Export Price Index MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Oct.
9:15 am EST
  • Industrial Production MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +1.1% gain in Oct.
  • Capacity Utilization for Nov. is estimated to rise to 73.0% versus 72.8% in Oct.
  • Manufacturing Production for Nov. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +1.0% gain in Oct.
4:00 pm EST
  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Oct.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The UK unemployment rate, weekly US retail sales report, (LLY) investor update, (CS) investor day, (ELAN) investor day and the (BDC) investor day could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.