Thursday, December 17, 2020

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Education -1.2% 2) Steel -.7% 3) Energy -.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • EDIT, FIII, INSG, RGA, PCVX, AXSM, THCB, KURA, RVP, CSTL, RCKT, HCAC, MGNX, FMTX, GLSI, NVTA, NXTC and MLHR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) IYR 2) RDFN 3) LEN 4) FUBO 5) MDB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CVIAQ 2) HBAN 3) CCJ 4) GSX 5) ICPT
Charts:

Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +1.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding +4.0% 2) Gold & Silver +2.9% 3) Shipping +2.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • COGT, MARA, HGEN, MP, FUBO, SI, MIC, RAD, MDB, AKTS, WK, DOMO, JBL, WMG, CDE, LEN, CHWY, ARVN, RDFN, REAL, MITK, MSTR and EPAM
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) NXTD 2) PHM 3) WY 4) XSPA 5) SILJ
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) JBL 2) OTIC 3) ACN 4) CHWY 5) LEN
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running -8.3% Below 100-Day Average
  • 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
  • 55.6% of Issues Advancing, 38.2% Declining
  • 199 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
  • 85.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 54.0% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,438.0 +74.0 points
  • Vix 21.9 -2.7%
  • Total Put/Call .60 -23.1%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.21 -3.2%

Wednesday, December 16, 2020

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:  
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch.com:       
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:

@kylenabecker:

TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
Politico:
Daily Caller:
NTD News:
ProtectTheVote.com: 
HereIsTheEvidence.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.25 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 28.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.62 +.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,403.0 +38.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.15 +.21%
  • FTSE 100 futures +.13%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.06%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ACN)/2.05
  • (CCL)/-1.84
  • (GIS)/.93
  • (JBL)/1.15
  • (NAV)/.31
  • (RAD)/-.05
  • (SAFM)/.23
After the Close:
  • (AIR)/.18
  • (BB)/-.01
  • (FDX)/3.99 
  • (SCHL)/1.38
  • (SCS)/.03
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST:
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 815K versus 853K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 5700K versus 5757K prior.
  • Housing Starts for Nov. are estimated to rise to 1535K versus 1530K in Oct.
  • Building Permits for Nov. are estimated to rise to 1560K versus 1545K in Oct.
  • The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for Dec. is estimated to fall to 20.0 versus 26.3 in Nov.
11:00 am EST
  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for Dec. is estimated to fall to 9.0 versus 11.0 in Nov.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The BoE Rate Decision, Eurozone Inflation Data, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Bloomberg weekly Consumer Comfort Index, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for Dec. and the Moderna FDA meeting for EUA covid-19 vaccine approval could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Dovish FOMC Commentary, Vaccine Optimism, Tech/Gaming Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.7 -1.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,347.0 +115.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.43 +.05%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.3 +.2%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.3 -.1%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 -28.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .76 -17.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.12 +72.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.77 -.11%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 580.44 -.26%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 57u.05 -2.66%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 110.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.60 -.82%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 159.60 -1.22%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 182.69 +.22%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 14.25 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.50 -7.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.25 +.5 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.5 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.54 +.10%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 77.0 -1.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 154.80 USD/Metric Tonne +.01%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 71.40 -6.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 199.80 +62.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 69.7 +1.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.93 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -12 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +40 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +12 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/tech/consumer staple sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -.9%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Airlines -1.7% 2) Defense -1.6% 3) Telecom -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • WRI, FCFS, BEEM, UCTT, IONS, RRR, NDSN, RETA, IOVA, TCPC, NOVA, ALLO, TSN, TCRR, PRTS, TDOC, INOV, CWH, CTLS, OCUL, NVAX, GLSI, MRNA, AAXN, DFIN, GLSI, OMI, PEN, ARVN, AMWL, INSM, FMTX, DISH, BEAM, NFE, RVP and TBIO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) VERU 2) EMB 3) IEF 4) LEN 5) DISH
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CCM 2) SRTS 3) TDOC 4) AAXN 5) PEN
Charts: