Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,778.50 +1.31%*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices

• DJIA 31,050.60 +.27%

• NASDAQ 13,542.86 +3.2%

• Russell 2000 2,152.96 -.54%

• S&P 500 High Beta 60.29 -3.56%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 292.82 +2.2%

• Wilshire 5000 40,480.01 +1.1%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,497.27 +3.42%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,385.02 -1.1%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 670.92 -.78%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,368.47 +2.63%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,977.19 +2.3%

• Transports 12,884.86 -2.2%

• Utilities 858.73 +1.0%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 60.68 -1.5%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 55.84 +1.66%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,352.24 -.14%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 926.01 -.22%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 449,769 +.08%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,399 -269

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -45.5 +.6%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 527,717 +1.75%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,234,696 +3.0%

• Total Put/Call .62 -24.4%

• OEX Put/Call 1.65 +23.2%

• ISE Sentiment 116.0 +14.0 points

• NYSE Arms .84 +9.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,179.0 +279.0 points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 21.4 -7.4%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.2 +4.2%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.66 -2.9%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.3 -.67%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,667.47 +.95%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.307 Trillion -.19%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$11.024 Million

• AAII % Bulls 42.5 -6.0%

• AAII % Bears 34.5 +8.8%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 172.85 -2.0%

• Crude Oil 52.30 -2.40%

• Reformulated Gasoline 154.93 -.72%

• Natural Gas 2.45 -7.55%

• Heating Oil 157.85 -2.51%

• Gold 1,857.10 +.5%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 213.6 -.9% 

• Copper 362.65 -1.28%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 456.0 USD/Metric Tonne -3.4%

• China Iron Ore Spot 166.40 USD/Metric Tonne -2.4%

• Lumber 796.0 +11.4%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,061.19 -4.4%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +7.5% -1.2 percentage points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +17.7% +1.4 percentage points
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 20.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index -2.0 -18.6%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 298.68 +22.7%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 169.98 +.79%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 78.2 +20.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 142.0 -18.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 60.30 -3.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate hike on 1/27

• US Dollar Index 90.21 -.60%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,724.66 +.17%

• Bitcoin/USD 33,520 -9.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.85 +.76%

• Yield Curve 98.75 +2.75 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.09% unch.
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.375 Trillion +1.11%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 13.18 -.38%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 287.31 -.04%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 126.0 +10.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 30.76 -2.2%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 173.46 +2.87%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.13 -9.0%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.08 -4.3%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 97.37 +8.4%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.48 +.07%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.08% -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 14.75 -.25 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.25 -1.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 51.10 -1.38%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 430.0 +10.2%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 60.85 -2.2%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 170.97 +.02%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 69.0 -2.5 basis points
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 73.75 +1.11%

• M1 Money Supply $6.798 Trillion +.84%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,058.10 -.3%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 848,000 +2.85%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.6% -2.0 basis points
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.77% -2.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 946,800 -1.91%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 43.7 +.5 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.2% +10.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.40/gallon +.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,837 +4.73%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,966.64 +5.52%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.50 -12.5%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 111.0 -16.5%

• Rail Freight Carloads 295,997 +2.1%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +3.4%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -1.6%
  

Leading Sectors

• Homebuilding +12.3%

• Social Media +5.4%
  

• Digital Health +4.7%

• Software +4.0%

• Video Gaming +3.5%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Airlines -4.7%
  

• Energy -5.2%

• Steel -5.9%

• Banks -6.3%

• Oil Service -10.5%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (27)

• GME, PLTR, SUNW, STIM, MGNI, GRTS, DCRB, BBBY, GEVO, CYRX, DDD, VUZI, CCIV, GOGO, HGEN, SIVB, ISBC, TTEK, NVTA, SPWR, DMYI, ATOM, SOAC, DNMR, WPF, ATOM and DMTK
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (16)

• COF, ADSK, AA, EPD, LPG, DVN, PPG, COWN, CSX, MUR, DISH, HBAN, ISRG, ECPG, NMIH and PASG
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Earnings Jitters, Oil Decline, Tax Hike/Regulation Fears, Energy/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.5 +1.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,177.0 -22.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.83 +.31%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.3 +1.1%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.9 +6.2%

• ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 +5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .62 -15.1%

• NYSE Arms .83 -35.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.13 +.62%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 504.40 +3.4%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.07 +1.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 126.0 +8.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.05 +.45%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 171.0 +2.2%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.48 -.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 unch.

• TED Spread 14.75 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.25 -1.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  69.0 +.25 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.75 +.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.22 -.73%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 98.75 +2.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 166.40 USD/Metric Tonne -2.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 78.20 +15.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 142.0 +.5 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 60.30 +.2 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.08 -9.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +19 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -72 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +12 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my energy/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 38.1% of Issues Advancing, 59.0% Declining
• 101 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
• 85.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.1% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,148.0 -50.0 points
• Vix 21.9 +2.8%
• Total Put/Call .58 -20.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.32 +3.1%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• China Imports Oil Doctored to Skirt U.S. Sanctions on Venezuela.
• Biden Unveils U.S. Plan; Singapore Weighs Limits: Virus Update.  
• Asia Shares Slip; Tech Stocks Lift U.S. Indexes: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Slips With Global Viral Resurgence Highlighting Demand Risks.  
• Stimulus-Sanity, China Deal Failure, Europe Double-Dip: Eco Day.  
• Bitcoin Drops Below $30,000 Level as Head-Turning Rally Stalls.
• Bitcoin Plunge Has Newbies Scrambling to Google Double-Spend.
• Covid Cases Fall in 46 States, But Biden Warns of More Death.  
• Yellen Leaves Door Open to Tax Increase on Wealthy Americans.
  
• Biden to Freeze Oil and Coal Leasing on Federal Land.  
• 50 Companies to Watch in 2021.  
• Florida Bank Added to List of Companies Ending Ties With Trump.
• Here Are the U.S. Companies Hitting Pause on Political Donations.

Wall Street Journal:

• Joe Biden’s Inaugural Purge.
• Biden Learns to Love Brett Kavanaugh.
• U.S. Quickly Rejoined Paris Climate Accord. Meeting the Emissions Goals Will Be Harder.
• Florida to Require Vaccine Recipients to Show Proof of Residency.

Fox News:   

• WATCH: Biden gets testy with reporter over vaccine rollout question.
• Unrest explodes across West after Biden is sworn in.
  

CNBC.com:

• Dr. Fauci says new data shows Covid vaccines appear to be less effective against some new strains.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: IBM, Seagate, Ford & more.
• Joe Biden’s business allies discuss ways to pay for infrastructure plan, including a carbon tax.
• Biden facing pressure to scale back his $1.9 trillion Covid relief plan.
• Intel’s new CEO says troubled chip project is recovering, may still outsource some manufacturing.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Bitcoin’s skid rings alarm bells as money manager says retreat to $20,000 ahead.  
• All of President Biden’s key early executive orders — in one chart.

Zero Hedge:

• Suddenly Optimistic Fauci Sees Pandemic "Plateauing," Feels "Liberated" Under Biden Admin.
• Senate Dems File Ethics Complaint Against Cruz, Hawley For Objecting To Electoral Results.
• Intel Released Earnings Early Because Hacker "Stole Financially Sensitive Information" From Its Website.
• China Appeals To "Kind Angels" Of Biden Administration, Blames Trump For "Burning Bridges".
• Japan To Cancel "Doomed" Olympics: Report.
• Anti-Trump "Oversight Board" To Determine Whether Trump Will Regain Access To Facebook.
• Right On Cue For Biden, WHO Admits High-Cycle PCR Tests Produce COVID False Positives.
• IBM Plunges After Reporting Lowest Q4 Revenue This Century, Slowdown In Cloud And Another Grotesque EPS Fudge.
• Growth Stocks' "Line In The Sand" Defended Again, Bitcoin Battered.
• Einhorn's Greenlight Made A Record 25% In Q4, Mocks Tesla's "Valuation-Indifferent" Investors: Full Letter.
• My Pillow CEO Says Bed Bath & Beyond, Kohl's To Stop Selling His Products.

Newsmax:

• McConnell Wants to Give Trump 2 Weeks to Prep for Impeachment Trial.
• Pelosi: Senate to Get Trump Impeachment for Trial Soon.
• Ex-WH Adviser Navarro: 'Forget Unity' if There's an Impeachment Trial.
• Biden Suspends New Oil and Gas Leases, Permits for 60 Days.
  

NBC 10 Philadelphia:

• These Are the Companies Taking a Stand on the U.S. Capitol Protest by Pulling Their Political Donations. Many of the country's biggest companies across industry sectors, from Ford Motor Co. to Airbnb to Boston Scientific, announced suspensions of all PAC donations. The list of companies pledging change, which continues to grow, included the financial services companies JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup and the tech behemoths Microsoft, Facebook and Google. A host of other large companies, including Delta Air Lines, Wells Fargo, Walmart and Bank of America, said they would take the unprecedented events of last week into account when considering future political donations.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• President Trump Is Talking to Allies About Starting a New Pro-American Political Party to Take on GOP and Democrats.
• Maskless Biden Visits Lincoln Memorial After Signing EO Mandating Masks on Federal Property (VIDEO).
• Montana Lawmakers Move to Protect Girls’ Sports After Biden Signs Order Forcing Schools to Let Transgender Biological Males Compete With Them.
• BREAKING: Trust in Fake News Mainstream Media at ALL-TIME LOW.
• BREAKING: GOP Lawmaker Marjorie Taylor Greene Introduces Articles of Impeachment on President Joe Biden.
• Lou Dobbs Warns GOP: “Those 74 Million Americans if They Continue to Be Insulted – Are Going to Say “To Hell With You!” And the Patriot Party Will Be Born (VIDEO).
• FBI Arrests CDC Critic Dr. Simone Gold on Monday After She Was Filmed in the US Capitol Walking Around with a Bullhorn — FBI Singled Her Out.
• Four GOP Reps DIDN’T VOTE on Impeachment – Along with the 10 Turncoats Who Voted to Impeach Trump – Update.
  

The Epoch Times:

• Mysteriously Rapid Increase of Chinese Patent Filings Addressed in US Government Report.
• Shanghai Announces New CCP Virus Outbreak, Including Hospital Workers.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.25 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 30.0 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.66 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,216.0 +21.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.85 +1.33%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.01%.

• S&P 500 futures -.16%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.23%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ALLY)/1.06
• (BLMN)/.04
• (KSU)/1.92
• (EDU)/.33
• (RF)/.42
• (SLB)/.17
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• The Markit US Manufacturing PMI for Jan. is estimated to fall to 56.5 versus 57.1 in Dec.
• The Markit US Services PMI for Jan. is estimated to all to 53.4 versus 54.8 in Dec. 
  

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for Dec. is estimated to fall to 6.56M versus 6.69M in Nov.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and energy shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Stimulus Hopes, Technical Buying, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

 

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.2 -1.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,233.0 +185.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.36 +.43%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.2 +.8%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.9 +6.1%

• ISE Sentiment Index 117.0 -26.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .69 -1.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.08 -32.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.85 +.88%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 487.59 -.15%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.07 +.64%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 118.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.72 -1.98%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 167.18 +.24%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.49 +.15%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 14.75 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  68.75 -.25 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.5 +.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.69 +.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 95.25 -.75 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 167.60 USD/Metric Tonne +3.29%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 62.80 +12.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 141.50 -2.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 60.10 -.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 +5.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -116 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -29 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +6 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.9%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -4.4% 2) Road & Rail -2.4% 3) Steel -2.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BNFT, IFF, DD, LTHM, UNP, GRTS, PRVB, WBS, ACTC, HAE, MSTR, GHIV, ORGO, HARP, DTIL, UAL, DFS, BSY, PCRX, CDNA, MAXR, ZYXI, UAVS, BEAM, SI, CLSK, DVN, CURI, EDIT, AA, SNDX, RIOT, PASG, ATHA, MUR and DYN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) GSAT 2) UNP 3) MDLZ 4) MTDR 5) STX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TGI 2) ACMR 3) PCRX 4) DD 5) UAL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume