BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Friday, January 29, 2021

Morning Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 11:07 AM

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running +32.8% Above 100-Day Average
1 Sector Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
42.8% of Issues Advancing, 53.9% Declining
45 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
83.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 46.9%
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,311.0 -50.0 points
Vix 30.5 +.8%
Total Put/Call .75 -1.3%
TRIN/Arms .52 -65.6%

Thursday, January 28, 2021

Friday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 8:40 PM

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.0 -.75 basis point.

China Sovereign CDS 31.75 -.25 basis point.

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.99 -.05%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,410.0 +51.0 points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.3 -.31%.
FTSE 100 futures -.22%.

S&P 500 futures -.22%.

NASDAQ 100 futures -.34%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(BMI)/.43
(BAH)/.83
(CAT)/1.49
(CVX)/.08
(CHD)/.52
(CL)/.76
(LLY)/2.40
(GNTX)/.50
(HON)/2.00
(JCI)/.41
(LHX)/3.10
(LYB)/1.33
(PSX)/-.99
(SAP)/1.56
(WY)/.48

After the Close:

None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

The 4Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in 3Q.
Personal Income for Dec. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -1.1% decline in Nov.
Personal Spending for Dec. is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -.4% decline in Nov.
The PCE Core MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in Nov.

9:45 am EST

The MNI Chicago PMI for Jan. is estimated to fall to 58.5 versus 59.5 in Dec.

10:00 am EST

Pending Home Sales MoM for Dec. is estimated to fall -.5% versus a -2.6% decline in Nov.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The German GDP/Unemployment reports could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Dollar Weakness, Technical Buying, Transport/Financial Sector Strength

Posted by Gary .....at 3:12 PM

Broad Equity Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Higher

Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising

Volume: Heavy

Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

Volatility(VIX) 28.2 -24.1%
Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,529.0 +540.0 points

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.88 +.31%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.5 +.7%

S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.9 +3.7%

ISE Sentiment Index 140.0 +15.0 points

Total Put/Call .74 +1.37%

NYSE Arms 1.89 +600.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.65 -.36%

US Energy High-Yield OAS 519.03 -1.49%

European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.57 +.07%

Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 118.0 -2.0 basis points

Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.53 +1.79%

Emerging Market CDS Index 171.40 -1.72%

iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.56 +.04%

2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 -.25 basis point

TED Spread 15.75 +1.25 basis points

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.0 -.5 basis point
MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 67.0 +.25 basis point
IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.75 unch.

Economic Gauges:

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.12 +.28%
3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% -2.0 basis points

Yield Curve 89.0 -2.75 basis points

China Iron Ore Spot 152.95 USD/Metric Tonne -6.86%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 62.80 -4.8 points

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 98.6 +7.6 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 54.50 +.4 point

10-Year TIPS Spread 2.11 +5.0 basis points
100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +273 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating +42 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +22 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my energy/biotech/medical/tech/industrial sector longs

Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:12 PM

Style Underperformer:

Small-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Retail -8.1% 2) Telecom -2.4% 3) Shipping -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

PBH, ASO, GATX, RAD, LEVI, BC, MTH, SEER, MSGN, CALX, SPCE, CRSR, VGAC, ZYXI, LGF/B, CHRS, GO, TER, DISCA, KIDS, CPB, SJM, SDC, UNFI, DDS, M, CAKE, BIG, IRM, MDLA, EBIX, WHR, KR, SOL, FLWS, HZO, BGS, TR, VIAC, SKT, CVM, KODK, MAC, SRNE, KOSS, FIZZ, LUMN, AXDX, VIR, IRBT, PETS, GME, FOSL and BBBY

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) GNUS 2) LB 3) ASHR 4) FIZZ 5) AAL

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) BBBY 2) GSX 3) TRIT 4) BIG 5) SIRI

Charts:

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:57 PM

Style Outperformer:

Mid-Cap Growth +2.5%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Airlines +4.5% 2) Gold & Silver +3.9% 3) Road & Rail +3.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

SGRY, PSAC, AFG, REAL, PTC, SLM, LB, HAFC, CONN, ABMD, AOS, AAL, NOW, BKNG, DYN, ATHA, ABT, OUT, BPOP, RHP, SRG, CVLT, HLT and DBI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) GLUU 2) THO 3) VIRT 4) SLV 5) CHEF

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) HAFC 2) ABMD 3) NOW 4) CMCSA 5) GFF