Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Valuation Concerns, Rising Long-Term Rates, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.0 +1.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,612.0 -26.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.59 +.03%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 +3.2%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.9 +2.2%

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 -17.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .74 -22.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.17 +37.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.70 +3.31%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 469.09 +.15%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.17 -1.36%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 103.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.75 +2.54%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 204.77 +6.11%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 186.63 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 -1.5 basis points

• TED Spread 16.0 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.5 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  68.0 -5.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.5 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.43 -.85%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 144.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 168.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.38%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 82.6 -3.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 117.5 -11.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 51.4 -5.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 -1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +102 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -114 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -28 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/medical/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• Top China Diplomat Warns Biden to Tread Carefully on Taiwan.  
• Microsoft Attack Blamed On China Morphs Into Global Crisis.  
• Asian Stocks Gain on Growth Outlook; Oil Rises: Markets Wrap.  
• Growth Targets, Central Bank Decisions, New Indicators: Eco Day.  
• Oil Jumps Above $71 After Key Saudi Crude Terminal Attacked.
• Saudis Raise Crude Prices to Asia, U.S. as OPEC+ Extends Cuts.
• Key Saudi Arabian Oil Site Attacked, Sending Brent Above $70.  
• Treasuries Bear Frenzy Was the Biggest on Record Last Week.
• Lex Greensill Exits Billionaire Ranks as His Empire Unravels.
• Greensill Capital Chairman, Two Other Board Members Resign.  
• As Greensill’s Top Client, Gupta Sees Cash Source Evaporate.  
• Stimulus-Fueled Risk Bounce Likely to Come With Higher Yields.  
• Fauci Says U.S. Cases High; Cuomo Rejects Quitting: Virus Update.  
• Disney’s ‘Raya’ Gets Lackluster Debut in Theaters Amid Streaming.
• Cuomo Says ‘No Way’ He’ll Quit After New Allegations Emerge.  
• Manchin Says He’s Open to at Least Some Filibuster Reform.
• Powell’s Dashboard Shows How Far U.S. Economy Has to Go on Jobs.
• Billionaire MacKenzie Scott Marries Seattle Science Teacher.  
• More Senate Democrats See Filibuster as Barrier to Biden Agenda.

Wall Street Journal:

• Oxford Vaccine Startup in Conflict with University Ahead of IPO.
• Electric Vehicles Are the Future—If Dealers Can Figure Out How to Sell Them.
• Covid-19 Changed New York City: A Story of Six Lives.
• U.S. Set to Power Global Recovery.
• Financial Advisers and Investors Face a Crazy Quilt of State Regulations.
• Huawei Loses Cellular-Gear Market Share Outside China.
• GE Nears Deal to Combine Jet-Leasing Unit With AerCap.
• Dividing by Race Comes to Grade School.
• The Covid Welfare State.
• Xi Jinping’s Eager-to-Please Bureaucrats Snarl His China Plans.
• China Targets AI, Chips in Tech Race With U.S.

Fox News:

• See the ads being used to pressure vulnerable lawmakers ahead of crucial stimulus vote.
• Biden to sign voter registration executive order.
• Accuser Lindsey Boylan reacts to newest allegations.

CNBC:  

• Schumer: Congress might consider more Covid relief depending on pandemic.
• Biden says people will start getting stimulus checks this month as soon as House passes Covid relief.
• Joby Aviation is going public at a $6.6B valuation—look at its electric air taxi.
• Chinese foreign minister takes firm tone, calls for ‘non-interference’ between China and the U.S.
• NBA Commissioner Adam Silver supports new league that pays high schoolers $100,000.

Zero Hedge: 

• As 5th Woman Accuses Cuomo Of Harassment, Let's Review Media Fawning During Nursing Home Quagmire.
• Stocks, Crude, & Crypto Explode Higher As Asia Opens.
• Sen. Blackburn Wants NBA To "Come Clean" On Its Deal With Chinese State Television.
• Another Market Paradox: Wall Street Struggles To Explain Record Equity Inflows Amid Stock Turmoil.
• Urban Dictionary Bans "Blue Anon" Entry Defining Liberal Conspiracy Theorists; Google Censors Search.
• Mega Squeeze Coming: Last Week Saw Biggest Hedge Fund Shorting Since May.
• In Bombshell Statement, NY Senate Majority Leader Demands Cuomo Resign "For The Good Of The State" After Governor Says "No Way I Resign".
• Outrage Mob Goes After Cartoon Skunk Pepe Le Pew For "Normalizing Rape Culture".
• Morgan Stanley: 3 Reasons Why The Correction Has Further To Go Before It’s Over.
• Brace For Oil Surge: Saudi Oil Tank In Ras Tanura Port Hit In Houthi Drone Attack.
• Federal Workers Scoring Massive Perks In COVID Relief Bill.
• All Of ARK's ETFs Saw Outflows On Friday Except Its "Flagship" Innovation Fund. 
• Today's Stock Market Is A Casino Powered By Easy Money And Boredom.
• Kissinger: Biden Must Uphold Trump Administration's "Brilliant" Policy In The Middle East.
• China Exports Jump By Most Ever As Global Economy Redlines.
• Saudis + Commodity Funds = Energy Stock Explosion.
• "It's Systemic" - Coffee Consumers Face Soaring Prices As Shipping Costs Surge.
• Majority Of Germans Favor Easing COVID-19 Restrictions.
• Robocop? Las Vegas Apartment Complex Deploys Human-Sized Robot To Fight Crime.
• Iranian Militia Group Claims to Have Active Cells in Washington DC: Report.
• "Profiteering Off Poverty" - The Side Of Baltimore The Media Won't Show You.
• There Is No Such Thing As "White" Math.
• Greyhound CEO Tells DHS Head Migrants Must Test Negative For COVID-19 Before Boarding Buses.

NewsMax:   

• Biden Now Acknowledging Migrant Children Border Crisis.
• China Tells Biden to Reverse 'Dangerous' Taiwan Policy.
• GOP: Biden's Voting Rights Law New Interference in States' Rights.  
• Sen. Barrasso Blasts COVID Stimulus Bill as 'Liberal Wish List'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Joe Biden Announces New Executive Order ‘Expanding Voting Access’ – Making it Easier For Democrats to Steal Elections (VIDEO).
• PURE MARXISM: Prosecutor Argues Pro-Trump “Shaman” Jacob Chansley Should NOT Be Released Because He Might ‘Push False Claims of Election Fraud” Once Released.
• This Past Week the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors Unilaterally Loaded Ballots onto Trucks and then Stored Them in Open in a Warehouse Ignoring Proper Safeguarding Controls.
• After Finding Shredded Ballots in the Dumpster Earlier Today – A Mysterious Fire Breaks Out at Maricopa County Official’s Farm.
• Arizona Hospital Worker Says Nearly All of New COVID Cases are Illegal Aliens.
• Texas Gov. Announces “Operation Lone Star” to Secure Border Against Human and Drug Smuggling in Response to Biden’s Open Border Policies.
• Latest Released Texts Show Corrupt and Dishonest Senior FBI Agents Reminding Each Other to Try to Come Across As the Good Guys to Americans.
• BLM Protesters Threaten Little Girls and Small Children Outside Cheerleading Competition in Louisville (VIDEO).
• “That’s What Happens in Socialist Countries” – Former DNI John Ratcliffe Comes Clean — Discusses Last Minute Democrat Rules Change that Corrupted 2020 Election (Video).
• Insurrection! ANTIFA Sets Fire to Portland Public School Headquarters and Torches Vehicles in A Series Of Malicious Terrorist Attacks.

The Epoch Times:

• Beijing Fails to Guarantee Press Freedom During 2022 Winter Olympics. 
• Beijing Declines to Say How It Will Guarantee Press Freedom During 2022 Winter Olympics.
• SBS Suspends Chinese State Media Broadcasts Over Human Rights Complaint.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.0 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 32.75 -.25 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.0 +.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,699.0 +33.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.0 -.78%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.31%.
• S&P 500 futures +.37%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• (CASY)/.99
• (SFIX)/-.21
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales for Jan. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Industrial Production report, Citi Property CEO Conference, Deutsche Bank Media/Internet/Telecom Conference and the (CI) investor day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• Pope, Top Iraq Shiite Cleric Hold Historic, Symbolic Meeting. 
• ECB Confronts Shifting Markets as Economy Stays Frozen: Eco Week.
• The Biggest Players in the Short-Selling Game Are Getting a Pass.  
• Morgan Stanley, Evercore Tweak Payouts to Spread the SPAC Wealth.  
• Beyond Big Cities, Independent Pharmacies ‘Begging’ for Vaccine.    
• U.S. Cases Ease Further With Stimulus on the Way: Virus Update.
• Charting the Global Economy: Surge in Savings to Power Recovery.
• Senate Passes $1.9 Trillion Relief Bill After Marathon Votes.  
• Who Qualifies for a Third Stimulus Check? Here’s How It Will Work This Time.  
• What’s in the $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Bill Passed by the Senate.  
• U.S. Economy Ready to Surge With Big Stimulus, Fast Vaccines.
• Microsoft Server Flaws Raise Alarms at White House, DHS.
• Watchdog Warns of Weak Cybersecurity in DOD Weapons Contracts.
• Why Global Power Grids Are Still Vulnerable to Cyber Attacks.  
• Nothing the Stock Market Does Ever Scares Its Retail Daredevils.
  
• Bond Traders Go All-In on U.S. Treasury Market’s Big Short Bet.

Wall Street Journal:

• Biden, Claiming ‘Systemic Racism’ in Policing, Defies Science.
• China-Linked Hack Hits Thousands of Microsoft Customers.
• How Remote Work Is Reshaping Urban Geography.
• Oh, No, the Labor Market Is Recovering.
• Hollywood Renews Love for Westerns: Good, Bad, Binge-Worthy.
• U.S. Scientists Question Single Dose for Pfizer, Moderna Shots.

CNBC:

• Stocks face the crosscurrents of higher interest rates and fiscal stimulus in the week ahead.
• Central banks around the world want to get into digital currencies—here’s why.
• More restaurant jobs and the stimulus package foreshadow the industry’s coming recovery.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (CSCO), (QCOM), (AVGO), (TXN), (LOW), (VRTX) and (MYTE).

Fox News:

• Democratic COVID bill gives mass murderers taxpayer money right out of your pocket.
• Cuomo's office ordered to keep docs related to AG's investigation after 3 women allege misconduct.

Zero Hedge:

• Senate Passes $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Package; Here Are The Differences From House Version.
• Bitcoin Could Soon Run Head First Into U.S. Money Laundering Laws.
• Jack Dorsey Is Auctioning His First Tweet Ever As An NFT... And It's Now Worth Over $2MM.
• California’s Energy Policies Hurt Minority Citizens The Most.
• Kroger Opens Fully-Automated Ohio Fulfillment Center As Fears Mount Of Rising. Technological Unemployment.
• Red-Hot Freight Market Sends Used Container-Ship Values Soaring.
• Tulsi Gabbard Calls Out The US Dirty War On Syria That Biden & Aides Admit To.
• "We've Gone To A Liberal Form Of John Bolton": Rand Paul Blasts Biden's Foreign Policy.
• Chinese Hackers 'Likely To Have Netted High-Value Espionage Targets' Using Microsoft Outlook Exploit.
• When Yields Rise, Narratives Fall.
• Netanyahu Tells VP Harris Israel Will Never Allow Iran To Obtain Nukes.
• Guardian Promotes "Global Lockdown" Every Two Years To Combat Climate Change.
• The Global Financial End-Game.
• Radioactive Dust Is Sweeping Over Parts Of Europe From The Sahara.
• French Health Minister Mulls Banning Vaccine Exports.
• We're All Europeans Now.
• How The Fight Over American Freedom Will Probably Escalate.
• First-Ever "Space Hotel" Begins Construction In 2025, Operational By 2027.
• Watch: Boeing "Loyal Wingman" Stealth Drone Makes First Flight.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Biden Can Barely Read the Teleprompter as He Tries to Explain why the $1.9 Trillion Covid Bill is ‘Good For the Economy’ (VIDEO).
• Biden’s DHS Has No Plans to Test the Thousands of Migrants Streaming Across Southern Border — Has Not Tested Anyone!
• China Used the Coronavirus to Destroy Freedoms in Hong Kong and Punish Protesters.
• JUST IN: Senate Passes Democrats’ Massive $1.9 Trillion Covid Bill That Has Nothing to do with Covid on Party-Line Vote.
• Maneuvers In Kentucky Legislature Underway as Rumblings of Mitch McConnell’s Retirement Surface.
• Another Wyoming State Rep To Primary Liz Cheney.
• BREAKING: Antrim County Clerk and Material Witness, Sheryl Guy, DISMISSES Election Fraud Case – Judge Overrules Her Decision – Reinstates Case.
• LA Teachers Union Went on Witch Hunt to Find Out the Races of Parents Pushing for Schools to Open.

The Epoch Times:

• Biden’s Commerce Secretary Owns Stake in WeChat Parent Company as White House Reviews Trump’s Ban.
• US Condemns China’s Hong Kong Moves, Working to ‘Galvanize’ Action Against Abuses.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Evening Headlines

 Bloomberg:         

• World's Worst Covid Crisis Is Unfolding in Brazil, Where No Fix Seems to Work.  
• Hyperinflation Pushes Venezuela to Print 1,000,000-Bolivar Bills.  
• Bank Stock Rally Shows Few Signs of Faltering Soon.
• Crash Landing on Stock Heroes of Yesteryear Is Worst in a Decade.
• When Tesla Tumbles, It Drags Down Many Stock-Market Dreams.  
• China’s Plan for Digital Yuan Imperils Bitcoin’s Biggest Markets.
• The U.S. Has Vaccinated Half Its Seniors. The Next Half Will Be Harder.
• U.S. Curbs Ease Across Nation; NYC Movies Reopen: Virus Update.  
• U.S. Job Growth Surges Past Estimates; Unemployment Dips to 6.2%.  
• Who Qualifies for a Third Stimulus Check? Here’s How It Will Work This Time.  
• Disneyland, Dodger Stadium Can Begin Reopening April 1.  
• Two Top Female Aides Leave Andrew Cuomo Administration.
• Texas Bill Would Require Power Plants to Prepare for Cold.
• Oil Soars Above $66 With Saudi Supply Gamble Buoying Crude Bulls.  
• Oilfield Jobs Tank Again in U.S. After Brief Recovery Last Year.  
• Airline Insiders Sell Most Shares in Three Years Amid Rally.

Wall Street Journal:

• Summer Planning Starts Now for Covid-Hit Businesses, and Forecasts Are Murky.
• Fact-Checking Facebook’s Fact Checkers.
• Vindication for Ron DeSantis.
• Surge in Payrolls Sets Up Economy for Spring Gains.
• Senate Democrats Reach Deal to Advance Covid Relief Bill.
• School Districts Reopen but Include Remote Learning.
• ARK Funds Fall Into Bear Market.
• Pope Calls for Equal Rights for Christians at Start of Iraq Visit.

CNBC:

• Robinhood chooses the Nasdaq for its IPO, sources say.
• Tesla closes below $600 for the first time since December — here’s what’s weighing the stock down.
• LGI Homes CEO sees housing demand staying strong even as mortgage rates tick up.
• Demand for composite decking is rising thanks to a DIY boon, Trex CEO says.
• Democrats reach deal on unemployment aid, allowing $1.9 trillion relief bill to go forward.
• Coursera files for IPO amid online learning boom.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

MarketWatch.com:   

• Investors may have a ‘buy’ signal, as these big tech stocks have dropped up to 32% in only three weeks.
  
• Buy this dip in Apple, Microsoft and these other tech stocks before they’re out of reach, says analyst.

Fox News:

• Republicans say POTUS sparked border emergency by undoing Trump policies, urge him to do this.
• 'Disastrous leadership': Trump tears into Biden over 'spiraling tsunami' at border. 

 Zero Hedge:

• PPT? Stocks Rescued By Biggest Intraday Dip-Buy Since 2011 EU Crisis Bailouts.
• One Bank Turn Apocalyptic: "The Fed Will Inevitably Move To YCC" As "Rates Are No Longer Anchored". 
• These Are The Companies Whose Employees Most Often Get Payday Loans.
• Emmy For Slow-Motion Career Trainwreck: Cuomo Stripped Of Emergency Powers As Sexual Assault Charges Mount.
• The Four Day Work Week Is Catching On.
• There's Only One News Story, Repeating Over And Over Again.
• Japan Supercomputer Finds Double-Masking Doesn't Work.
• As Insurrection Narrative Crumbles, Democrats Cling To It More Desperately Than Ever.
• The Myths Of Green Energy.
• Manhattan Office Rents Plunge To Lowest Since 2018 Amid Record Supply Glut.
• Baltimore Student Who Failed All But Three Classes In Four Years Was Ranked In Top Half Of His Class.
• "Own Gold" - Dylan Grice Warns "Central Banks Are Going To Overcook The Economy".
• "Days Away From A Crisis": 100,000 Illegal Immigrants Arrested At US Mexico Border; Most For February In 15 Years.
• Watch: Ben Carson Derides Dr Seuss Witch-Hunt: "This Is Poison In Our System".
• Goldman, Bank Of America Made Hundreds Of Millions From Texas Blackouts.
• 88% Of COVID Deaths Occurred In Countries Where Over Half Of Population Overweight.
• Supreme Court Dismisses "Sanctuary City" Cases At Request Of Biden's DOJ.
• Consumers Unexpectedly Paid Down Their Credit Cards For A 4th Straight Month, Have "Uncharged"A Record $127BN In The Past Year.
• "It's A Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World...".
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Psaki Says Biden ‘Takes Questions Several Times A Week’ – Videos Expose Aides Rushing Reporters Out.
• Leftists Outraged Over Democrat Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s Enthusiastic Thumbs Down Vote on $15 Minimum Wage Hike (VIDEO).
• Ben Stein Issues WARNING: Suffers Severe Side Effects from COVID Vaccine DAYS AFTER Getting Shot (VIDEO).
• No Wonder Democrats Are Delaying Everything Related to the 2020 Election – Irregular Ballots from the 2020 Election in Arizona Can be Destroyed Six Months After the Election.
• Biden Border Blowout: February Record Nearly 100,000 Illegals Detained Crossing from Mexico; CDC Waives COVID Rules to Allow Filling Child Migrant Shelters to Capacity.
• “End the Border Nightmare” – Trump Slams Joe Biden on Border Crisis in Scathing Statement.
• TRUTH: Texas Attorney General Paxton Says “No Election Fraud” Myth Is Driven By Lack of Investigations.

The Epoch Times:

• Sen. Blackburn Wants NBA to ‘Come Clean’ on Its Deal With Chinese State Television.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).