Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,937.06 +2.4%*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices

• DJIA 32,709.85 +3.8%

• NASDAQ 13,273.19 +2.7%

• Russell 2000 2,343.34 +6.6%

• S&P 500 High Beta 71.9 +3.0%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 329.57 +10.3%

• Wilshire 5000 41,547.17 +2.9%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,416.51 +2.1%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,494.30 +2.93%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 675.11 +2.24%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,396.37 +1.57%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,800.71 +1.6%

• Transports 14,150.0 +3.5%

• Utilities 846.92 +3.94%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 70.27 +1.77%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 53.91 -.28%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,358.26 +.56%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 935.77 +.34%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 459,632 +1.8%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,616 +1,344

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -41.54 -.53%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 519,019 +1.4%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,491,831 +1.29%

• Total Put/Call .73 -18.0%

• OEX Put/Call 1.80 +1.50%

• ISE Sentiment 132.0 +37.0 points

• NYSE Arms .68 -21.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,994.0 +441.0 points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 21.1 -3.8%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.0 +5.6%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.1 -.3%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.6 +1.64%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,643.90 +1.64%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.392 Trillion +.68%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -.431 Million

• AAII % Bulls 49.4 +22.6%

• AAII % Bears 23.5 -7.1%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 193.75 +.19%

• Crude Oil 65.66 -1.07%

• Reformulated Gasoline 214.95 +3.41%

• Natural Gas 2.59 -3.2%

• Heating Oil 196.57 +.90%

• Gold 1,722.0 +1.45%
• Silver 25.91 +2.6%
  

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 236.46 +.7% 

• Copper 414.20 +1.05%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 440.0 USD/Metric Tonne -5.4%

• China Iron Ore Spot 155.0 USD/Metric Tonne -7.3%

• Lumber 870.0 -1.26%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,138.81 -.36%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 323.0 USD/Short Ton -.62%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +8.4% -1.8 percentage points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +24.4% +1.5 percentage points
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 15.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index -1.6 -1.3%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 311.78 +60.0%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 179.55 +.63%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 78.5 -7.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 114.60 -16.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 46.10 -9.1 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate hike on 3/17

• US Dollar Index 91.67 -.35%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,710.55 +.01%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 56,900 +16.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.89 +1.1%

• Yield Curve 140.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.63% +8.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.540 Trillion +.30%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 10.48 -13.7%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 247.68 -5.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 93.0 -12.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.43 -1.8%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 199.52 +1.48%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.86 +2.46%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.19 -6.4%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 92.03 -7.7%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 186.78 +.1%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27% +4.0 basis points

• TED Spread 15.75 +1.5 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.0 +3.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 52.79 -2.21%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 327.0 -9.67%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 59.03 -6.5%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 189.17 -2.0%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 73.25 -1.25 basis points
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 75.0 -.5 basis point

• M1 Money Supply $1.813 Trillion +.01%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,110.8 +1.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 759,000 -4.3%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.9% -10.0 basis points
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.05% +3.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 783,800 -1.4%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 49.4 +.5 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +8.0% +499.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.84/gallon +.09/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,970 +7.7%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,912.13 -2.97%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.50 -5.4%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 189.71 -9.1%

• Rail Freight Carloads 282,641 +4.2%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +7.2%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +2.1%
  

Leading Sectors

• Retail +15.7%

• Alt Energy +14.1%
  

• Steel +11.0%

• Airlines +8.5%

• Gaming +7.8%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Video Gaming +.5%
  

• Social Media +.4%

• Energy +.2%

• Oil Service +.1%

• Medical Equipment +.1%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (26)

• LC, PSTX, AEGN, CYH, VIAC, FLR, FNKO, NPTN, GBOX, TRIP, GPRO, REVG, GBOX, BA, TEN, TLYS, SAVE, MGNX, DBX, NVAX, ERII, QUOT, RC, APPH and LORL
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (3)

• SUMO, GOCO and RIDE
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.5 -3.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 31.75 -2.5 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.66 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,817.0 +20.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.91 +.42%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.06%.

• S&P 500 futures +.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.26%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BKE)/1.14

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• PPI Final Demand MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +1.3% gain in Jan.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +1.2% gain in Jan.

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for March is estimated to rise to 78.5 from 76.8 in February.

Upcoming Splits

• (VRNS) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK Trade Balance report and the (T) investor day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Substantially Higher into Afternoon on Economic Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yld Debt Angst, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.8 -3.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,802.0 +79.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.55 +.55%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.5 -.3%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.4 unch.

• ISE Sentiment Index 117.0 +11.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .71 -1.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.15 +22.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.48 -2.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 471.97 -1.77%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.45 -3.9%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 93.0 -7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.67 -4.72%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 195.77 -4.66%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 186.79 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.75 +1.25 basis points

• TED Spread 14.75 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.0 +1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.25 +.75 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.0 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.65 +.67%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 137.0 -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 164.30 USD/Metric Tonne +6.24%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 71.30 -8.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 118.3 -.6 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 51.2 +1.7 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 +7.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -36 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +142 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech/industrial/energy sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -1.8% 2) Paper -.4% 3) Airlines unch.

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MESA, VERX, TUP, GOGO, ORCL, COWN, KIDS, GE, SUMO, CLDR, FOSL, AVEO and CELH
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EGHT 2) GOGO 3) CLDR 4) GE 5) DISCA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) IVC 2) SPCE 3) AVO 4) NVR 5) TLND
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +3.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +5.8% 2) Semis +4.3% 3) Digital Health +4.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VIR, JNCE, FOUR, WISH, ANAB, RMO, TFFP, FSRV, RSI, NDLS, GOEV, APPS, MTW, AXTI, XPEL, REKR, CWH, MDB, SDGR, LPI, APPH, OTRK, MWK, ADPT, TDOC, EHTH, COMM, LC, DY, CVGI, UNFI, FPI, TITN, TPTX, SSTK, VVNT, AMRC, ASAN, SWTX, IRWD, AL, CVI, SKLZ, TRIP, AMT, NTRA, SCHN, REVG, AVLR, BOX, RNA, BX, ARNC, PAYA, FNKO, LAND, APO, GNK, RBC, ACLS, GNK and TBBK
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VIR 2) ENTX 3) OXY 4) BMBL 5) REV

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) QEP 2) REKR 3) ITB 4) ORCL 5) BOX

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +6.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 75.3% of Issues Advancing, 22.6% Declining
• 264 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 87.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.1%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,802.0 +82.0 points
• Vix 21.5 -4.6%
• Total Put/Call .72 unch.
• TRIN/Arms 1.22 +28.7%